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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of Japan still isn't confident about achieving sustainable inflation, professor saysTakatoshi Ito, professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University, says the central bank views wage hikes as key to reaching its "sustainable 2% target" for inflation.
Persons: Takatoshi Ito Organizations: Email Bank of Japan, Columbia University
Kazuo Ueda, a 71-year-old university professor who has kept a low profile despite strong credentials as a monetary policy expert, ticked some important boxes. While he was not even on the list of dark horse candidates floated by the media, Ueda was well known in global central bank circles. The bank's preferred choices were incumbent deputy governor Amamiya, as well as former deputies Hiroshi Nakaso and Hirohide Yamaguchi, given their deep knowledge on monetary policy. Matsuno said he hoped the BOJ works closely with the government and guides monetary policy flexibly, when asked whether Ueda's appointment could lead to a retreat from Abenomics. While he warned of the rising cost of the BOJ's yield control policy, Ueda has called for the need to keep monetary policy loose to ensure Japan stably achieves the bank's 2% inflation target.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJapan's inflation rate will probably be above 2% for some time, professor saysTakatoshi Ito of Columbia University says the country's inflation rate is still on an "upward trend."
TOKYO, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan may raise a cap set around its 10-year bond yield target to 0.75% or double it to 1.0% by around mid-year if inflation overshoots its expectations, Columbia University academic Takatoshi Ito said on Thursday. Depending on inflation and wage developments, the central bank may also abandon negative rates by raising its short-term interest rate target from -0.1% by the end of this year, Ito told Reuters in an interview. Ito, who is a close associate of BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's, is considered by some analysts as a candidate to join the central bank's leadership when the terms of Kuroda and his two deputies end in the coming months. Kuroda's term is up in April, while those of his two deputies expire in March. Reporting by Leika Kihara and Takaya Yamaguchi Editing by Chang-Ran KimOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Kuroda likely put YCC on life support so his successor can strategise an orderly exit, said former BOJ official Nobuyasu Atago. He said the bank could raise the 0.5% yield cap to as high as 1% around mid-year and ditch negative rates by year's end. The parent of casual clothing giant Uniqlo says it will raise wages as much as 40%. "If the BOJ ends negative rates, that would widen the spread between deposit and lending rates so would definitely be positive for us," he said. With YCC creaking under market pressure, the BOJ may not be able to wait too long.
Of the 24 economists who replied to the Jan 5-12 poll, 16, or 67%, chose Amamiya as the most likely candidate to become the next BOJ governor. Four economists in the poll, or 17%, chose Nakaso, who is seen less dovish than Amamiya, as the most likely candidate. In a September poll that asked the same question, Amamiya and Nakaso received 61% and 33% of economists' votes, respectively. Five analysts expected the unwinding of easing to start in April, at the first BOJ meeting under the new governor. Elsewhere in the poll, 83% of economists said Japanese nominal wages were unlikely to outpace rising consumer prices in 2023.
Kuroda said then that the move was not a prelude to an exit from ultra-loose policy, because recent price rises meant Japan's inflation-adjusted, real interest rate had been declining. Japan's annual consumer inflation rate hit 2.8% in November even when excluding the effect of higher energy and food prices. "That would be an ideal initial condition for the BOJ to start hitting its inflation target on a more sustainable basis," Ito said. Ito and Kuroda, who have been close since working together at Japan's finance ministry in 1999-2001, lobbied hard for the BOJ to adopt a 2% inflation target to end deflation. The BOJ did so in early 2013 and deployed a massive stimulus programme when Kuroda became governor months later.
BOJ inflation target to be scrutinised at government forum
  + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Nov 14 (Reuters) - A government-affiliated think tank will host a forum next month to discuss the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target and the "challenges ahead", the organisation said on Monday. Participants include Columbia University professor Takatoshi Ito, who was a proponent of setting an inflation target when the BOJ had none until 2013, and University of Tokyo academic Tsutomu Watanabe, a former BOJ official known for his analyses on Japan's price trends. Three months later, Abe's hand-picked BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda deployed a massive asset-buying programme to meet his pledge of achieving 2% inflation in roughly two years. But stubbornly low inflation and a fragile economy forced the BOJ to maintain a massive stimulus until now, keeping Japan's central bank an outlier among global peers that have been tightening monetary policy to combat soaring inflation. With prolonged easing crushing bank profits and distorting the yield curve, some lawmakers have called for tweaking the joint statement and making the 2% inflation target a long-term goal with some room for flexibility.
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