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The Treasury earlier this month posted a $228 billion budget deficit for June, up 156% from a year earlier. "They have to grow coupon auction sizes - not just at the August refunding, not just at the November refunding, but also at the February refunding as well, because they are ultimately trying to balance this supply picture between bills vs coupons and this growing financing need," Swiber said. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) recommends that bills make up 15-20% of the total marketable debt. The Treasury will release its quarterly borrowing requirement Monday afternoon, and its refunding news comes Wednesday at 0830 ET/1230 GMT. The Treasury surveyed dealers about their opinion on how some details of the program should work ahead of the August refunding.
Persons: Steven Zeng, Meghan Swiber, Swiber, Ben Jeffery, Karen Brettell, Davide Barbuscia, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Hugh Lawson Organizations: U.S . Treasury Department, Treasury, COVID, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S
Jan 26 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department next week is likely to announce that it will offer fewer Treasury bills in the second quarter, after hitting its statutory borrowing limit. Next week, the Treasury is likely to say that it will reduce its issuance of Treasury bills, debt that matures in one year or less, and run down its cash balance to buy more time. That is because the U.S. government wants to increase bills as a percentage of overall debt to meet its long-term goals. BofA’s Swiber said that Treasury buybacks, which the Treasury queried dealers about in a previous survey, are a better solution to boost liquidity during times of market stress. These “allow Treasury to more directly manage Treasury liquidity, to more directly manage the outstanding supply of securities and they can effectively buy back things that are cheap on the curve and help support liquidity in the more liquid parts of the curve as well,” she said.
Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesInvestors are closely watching the nonfarm payrolls report due out Friday, but not for the usual reasons. In normal times, strong job gains and rising wages would be considered a good thing. When they get bad news on the economy, that means the Fed is going to tighten less." In real terms, Swiber said that likely means no change until the economy is actually losing jobs. Next week's CPI reading is likely to be more consequential when it comes to any shift in Fed attitudes, she added.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis is a buying opportunity for many investors, says Morgan Stanley's Sherry PaulSherry Paul, Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management managing director, and Meghan Swiber, Bank of America Global Research U.S. rates strategist & director, join CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to lay out their market forecasts ahead of the open.
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