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Search resuls for: "Swathi Nair"


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☆ BoC to raise rates by 25 bps to peak of 4.50% on Jan. 25
  + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Swathi Nair | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
A strong majority of 90% of economists, 26 of 29, expected a quarter-point rise on Jan. 25 to 4.50%, according to a Jan. 17-20 Reuters poll, in line with interest rate futures. The BoC has hiked rates by a cumulative 400 basis points since March 2022. "Rather than raise interest rates much further, the bigger risk to our policy rate forecasts is that the Bank will probably keep rates high for longer than we currently assume." The BoC is then expected to keep its overnight rate on hold at 4.50% for the remainder of the year, poll medians showed. That is in line with a recent BoC survey which showed most firms now think a recession is likely.
☆ U.S. heading into shallow recession, no respite from rate hikes yet: Reuters poll
  + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
"Unless inflation recedes quickly, the U.S. economy still appears headed for some trouble, though possibly a little later than expected. Although the fed funds rate is expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% early next year in line with interest rate futures, one-third of economists, 24 of 72, expected it to go higher. A large majority of economists, 35 of 48, said any recession would be short and shallow. Eight said long and shallow, while four said there won't be any recession. The U.S. unemployment rate (USUNR=ECI), which so far has stayed low, was expected to climb from the current 3.7% to 4.9% by early 2024.
☆ Canada house prices to tumble 17.5% peak to trough, say analysts
  + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | Gabriel Araujo | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
House prices need to fall 25% from peak to trough in order to make them affordable, according to the median response to an additional question. Reuters Poll - Canada housing market outlookThat was in line with BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers who said this week house prices needed to fall to restore balance to the housing market. A majority of property market experts said the risk of a crash in house prices was low. During the financial crisis, U.S. house prices crashed as much as around 40% but the Canadian market fell only 9% then. "In more 'normal' times before the pandemic, a 30% drop in house prices would be considered a crash.
☆ Fed terminal rate to reach just under 5%, said bond strategists
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
With scant evidence of sustained cooling in inflation, global central banks are unlikely to deviate yet from their current tightening paths. If any, the bias was for them to take interest rates higher or keep them at elevated levels for longer. He also said the "ultimate level" of the central bank's benchmark policy rate was likely to be higher than previously estimated. The median forecast from over 30 bond strategists who answered an additional question in the Nov. 4-9 poll put the terminal fed funds rate at 4.75%-5.00%, with one forecast as high as 5.50%-5.75%. A strong 74% majority, 23 of 31, expected the terminal rate to be reached by end-Q1 2023.
☆ Confidence in UK assets on thin ice, investors warn - Reuters poll
  + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Slightly more than half - 55% - of the international banks and research consultancies polled by Reuters last week said there was a high risk confidence in British assets would deteriorate sharply in the coming three months. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterFifteen out of 29 respondents said the risk was high, including three primary dealers of British government bonds. These shifts in part reflect investors' worry that Britain's reliance on imported energy will leave it exposed to higher inflation for longer. "But the new, inexperienced government faces great challenges and could easily make missteps which add to investors' concerns." "If higher inflation becomes a more structural phenomenon... yields could also turn out to be structurally higher," Rabobank's Bas Van Geffen said.
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