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☆ India is a growing defense powerhouse, and now it's looking to cash in on it
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( Paul Iddon | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But it has been investing heavily in its domestic arms industry with the goal of equipping its own forces and increasing its arms sales around the world. Recent arms sales and exercises illustrate how India seeks to turn that domestic arms production into foreign sales and perhaps even take some of that market away from its biggest supplier. The leaders discussed "defense platforms" and "equipment-related linkages" and deepening cooperation between their militaries and defense industries. (Egypt and India collaborated on development of the Helwan HA-300 light supersonic interceptor in the 1960s, but that project was ultimately canceled.) After all, Indian defense exports in recent years were negligible compared to heavyweights like the US and France, and New Delhi remains heavily reliant on imports.

Persons: —, JEWEL SAMAD, Swathi, Modi, Abdel Fattah al, Egypt's, Abdel Fattah el, Sisi, Narendra Modi, MANJUNATH KIRAN, Paul Iddon Organizations: Service, Getty, Armenia —, Armenia, Indian Press, Anadolu Agency, Indian, Indian Air Force, Tejas, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited Locations: India, New Delhi, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Armenia, East, Egypt, France, Cairo, Brahmos, Bangalore, China

☆ Bank of England's Mann doubles down on backing for rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Gergely Szakacs | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

After hiking interest rates to 4% last week, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) signalled it was close to pausing a run of increases which began in December 2021. Mann, consistently the most hawkish member of the MPC, said the risk of under-tightening policy far outweighed the alternative. "In my view, a tighten-stop-tighten-loosen policy boogie looks too much like fine-tuning to be good monetary policy. "From a risk-management point of view, monetary policy has to lean against these upside biases since wage and price inflation are still so high," she said. At the other end of the MPC spectrum, Dhingra and Tenreyro say over-tightening risked sending Britain's economy into an unnecessarily severe downturn, with the full force of the BoE's rate hikes yet to feed through.

☆ BoC to raise rates by 25 bps to peak of 4.50% on Jan. 25
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Swathi Nair | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A strong majority of 90% of economists, 26 of 29, expected a quarter-point rise on Jan. 25 to 4.50%, according to a Jan. 17-20 Reuters poll, in line with interest rate futures. The BoC has hiked rates by a cumulative 400 basis points since March 2022. "Rather than raise interest rates much further, the bigger risk to our policy rate forecasts is that the Bank will probably keep rates high for longer than we currently assume." The BoC is then expected to keep its overnight rate on hold at 4.50% for the remainder of the year, poll medians showed. That is in line with a recent BoC survey which showed most firms now think a recession is likely.

☆ U.S. heading into shallow recession, no respite from rate hikes yet: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Unless inflation recedes quickly, the U.S. economy still appears headed for some trouble, though possibly a little later than expected. Although the fed funds rate is expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% early next year in line with interest rate futures, one-third of economists, 24 of 72, expected it to go higher. A large majority of economists, 35 of 48, said any recession would be short and shallow. Eight said long and shallow, while four said there won't be any recession. The U.S. unemployment rate (USUNR=ECI), which so far has stayed low, was expected to climb from the current 3.7% to 4.9% by early 2024.

LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden backed more interest rate hikes on Thursday, but said he would consider cutting rates if the economy and inflation pressures panned out differently to his expectation. But Ramsden also said he would "continue to vote to respond forcefully" if inflation pressures proved to be more persistent than expected. The BoE has raised interest rates eight times since December 2021. Ramsden said the government's budget statement published earlier this month - comprising tax rises and spending restraint - was likely to push down on economic growth and inflation. "However, the vast majority of these measures do not come into effect until April 2025 so will have very little effect over the MPC's three-year forecast horizon, relative to what was assumed in the November MPC," Ramsden said.

☆ Canada house prices to tumble 17.5% peak to trough, say analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | Gabriel Araujo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

House prices need to fall 25% from peak to trough in order to make them affordable, according to the median response to an additional question. Reuters Poll - Canada housing market outlookThat was in line with BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers who said this week house prices needed to fall to restore balance to the housing market. A majority of property market experts said the risk of a crash in house prices was low. During the financial crisis, U.S. house prices crashed as much as around 40% but the Canadian market fell only 9% then. "In more 'normal' times before the pandemic, a 30% drop in house prices would be considered a crash.

☆ Fed terminal rate to reach just under 5%, said bond strategists
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

With scant evidence of sustained cooling in inflation, global central banks are unlikely to deviate yet from their current tightening paths. If any, the bias was for them to take interest rates higher or keep them at elevated levels for longer. He also said the "ultimate level" of the central bank's benchmark policy rate was likely to be higher than previously estimated. The median forecast from over 30 bond strategists who answered an additional question in the Nov. 4-9 poll put the terminal fed funds rate at 4.75%-5.00%, with one forecast as high as 5.50%-5.75%. A strong 74% majority, 23 of 31, expected the terminal rate to be reached by end-Q1 2023.

☆ Confidence in UK assets on thin ice, investors warn - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Slightly more than half - 55% - of the international banks and research consultancies polled by Reuters last week said there was a high risk confidence in British assets would deteriorate sharply in the coming three months. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterFifteen out of 29 respondents said the risk was high, including three primary dealers of British government bonds. These shifts in part reflect investors' worry that Britain's reliance on imported energy will leave it exposed to higher inflation for longer. "But the new, inexperienced government faces great challenges and could easily make missteps which add to investors' concerns." "If higher inflation becomes a more structural phenomenon... yields could also turn out to be structurally higher," Rabobank's Bas Van Geffen said.

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