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☆ BOJ to end negative interest rates in 2024, over 80% of economists say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Satoshi Sugiyama | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

While none of 26 economists predicted changes in the upcoming December BOJ meeting, many foresaw the negative rate policy, which has set Japan's short-term deposit rate at minus 0.1%, would reach the end of the line next year. In the Nov. 15-20 poll, 22 of 26, or 85%, of economists said the BOJ would end the policy by the end of next year. Having watered down YCC, the BOJ's next focus is to end its negative interest rate policy and push short-term rates to zero, sources previously told Reuters. Close to 85% of poll respondents forecast the BOJ would end its YCC policy, while the rest said it would tweak the scheme again, the poll found. EYES ON NEXT YEAROf 22 economists in the poll who chose 2024 for the end of negative rates, more than a half, 12, opted for the April 25-26 meeting.

Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Hiroshi Namioka, Namioka, Fumio Kishida's, Chiyuki Takamatsu, Satoshi Sugiyama, Veronica Khongwir, Sujith Pai, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of, Reuters, Capital, Research Institute, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, D, Management, Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan

☆ U.S. Treasury yields have peaked, say strategists for fourth straight month
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Sarupya Ganguly | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsBENGALURU, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields will fall in coming months, though not as sharply as forecast previously, according to bond strategists polled by Reuters, who said for a fourth month running in even greater numbers that the 10-year note yield had peaked. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield breached the 5% mark last month for the first time since July 2007, more than a full percentage point above its August low of 3.96%. Yet, when asked whether the 10-year note yield had peaked in the current cycle, an overwhelming 94% majority of respondents, 30 of 32, said it had. The interest-rate sensitive 2-year Treasury note yield , currently at 5.04%, was expected to decline about 20 basis points by end-January, before falling to 4.00% in a year, according to the survey. If realized, this would mean a complete reversal of the inverted spread between yields of U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes - historically a reliable indicator of impending recession - by end-October 2024.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Thomas Simons, Mike Sanders, Sarupya Ganguly, Prerana Bhat, Purujit Arun, Anitta Sunil, Sujith Pai, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Hamas, Jefferies, Madison Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S, Israel

☆ Bank of England rate has peaked, to stay at 5.25% through Q2
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is likely done with policy tightening and will leave Bank Rate at 5.25% on Nov. 2, according to the vast majority of economists polled by Reuters who did however caution the chance of another increase this year was high. Only 12 economists forecast a quarter point rise to 5.50% at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Inflation was expected to gradually decline across the forecast horizon but it won't reach target until Q2 2025, the poll showed. Around one-third of economists expected the Bank to act earlier. The BoE was forecast to reduce Bank Rate by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter, putting it at 4.50% by year-end.

Persons: James Smith, Elizabeth Martins, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, BoE, ING's Smith, Jonathan Cable, Prerana Bhat, Sujith Pai, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Bank, ING, MPC, HSBC, United States Federal Reserve, European, Thomson

☆ India to hold top spot for economic growth but risks to downside remain: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

After a stellar 7.8% expansion last quarter, economic growth was expected to moderate to 6.4% this quarter and then drop to 6.0% in the October-December period before slowing to 5.5% in early 2024. "A lot of the drivers that drove the really strong growth from the middle of 2021 to last year have been exhausted. A weak external backdrop is weighing on Indian economic growth as well as sluggish private consumption and sluggish investment." A majority of economists, 22 of 36, who answered an additional question said the risks to their FY 2023/2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside. Government measures should cool food prices in the coming months, but rising oil prices will likely place upward pressure on headline inflation."

Persons: Narendra Modi's, we're, Miguel Chanco, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Sujith Pai, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Jonathan Cable, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Pantheon, Reserve Bank of India, That's, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India, Asia

☆ Canadian dollar outlook seen less rosy as China's economy weakens
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

File photo: A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto, January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Mark Blinch/file photo Acquire Licensing RightsTORONTO, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Analysts have cut their bullish near-term forecasts for the Canadian dollar as China's economy weakens and the gap between U.S. and Canadian bond yields grows, but still expect the currency to be stronger in a year, a Reuters poll showed. "The loonie has lost a few feathers in recent weeks," said Stefane Marion, chief economist and strategist at National Bank of Canada. "Widening interest rate differentials with the U.S. and weaker commodity prices due to a slowing Chinese economy are keeping the CAD in check." Canada is a major producer of commodities, so the loonie tends to be sensitive to the global growth outlook.

Persons: Mark Blinch, Stefane Marion, Marion, Fergal Smith, Sujith Pai, Devayani, Pranoy, Jan Harvey Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Bank of Canada, U.S, Bank of Canada, Thomson Locations: Toronto, Canada, U.S

☆ Dollar to stay bright this year before fading in 2024, analysts say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Sarupya Ganguly | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Backed by a strong economy and rising U.S. Treasury yields, some of the highest among developed economies, the dollar despite bouts of weakness has stayed resilient against most major currencies. That strong performance has brought the long-held view of a weaker dollar in the short to medium term under review. A solid 81% majority of analysts, 43 of 53, who answered an additional question said the risk to their dollar outlook was to the upside, the Sept. 1-6 Reuters poll showed. Elsewhere, other Asian currencies stand to face significant friction in recouping losses for the year, according to the poll. Almost all were forecast to at best stay within a range or trade modestly higher against the dollar in coming months.

Persons: Jane Foley, Lee Hardman, pare, Sterling, Sarupya Ganguly, Sujith Pai, Devayani, Pranoy, Hari Kishan, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Treasury, . Federal, Rabobank, Argentine, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, America, Brazilian

Men watch a screen displaying the Sensex results on the facade of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai, February 1, 2023. REUTERS/Niharika Kulkarni/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummary poll dataBENGALURU, Aug 23 (Reuters) - India stocks will trade only modestly higher at year-end, according to a Reuters poll of equity analysts who said a correction was likely before then, citing tightening global financial conditions as a risk. Driven by positive foreign and domestic investment inflows, the benchmark BSE Sensex Index (.BSESN) touched an all-time high of 67,619.2 on July 20, up around 18% from the year's low of 57,084.9 set only four months earlier. Over 70% of analysts who answered an additional question, 21 of 29, said a correction - a decline of 10% or more - in the Indian equity market was likely by year-end, including five who said it was highly likely. (Other stories from the Reuters global stock markets poll package:)Reporting by Devayani Sathyan and Sujith Pai; Polling by Milounee Purohit, Veronica Khongwir and Anant Chandak; Editing by Jonathan Cable and Bernadette BaumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Niharika Kulkarni, Rajat Agarwal, Devayani Sathyan, Sujith Pai, Milounee Purohit, Veronica Khongwir, Anant Chandak, Jonathan Cable, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Bombay Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Monday's, Asia, U.S

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationBENGALURU, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will hold its ground against most major currencies over the coming three months as a resilient domestic economy bolsters expectations interest rates will remain higher for longer, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters. The dollar is unlikely to give up recent gains in coming months, according to the July 31-Aug. 2 Reuters poll of 70 FX strategists, which showed most major currencies would not reclaim their recent highs for at least six months. In response to an additional question, 27 of 40 FX strategists said net short USD positions would either not change much or decrease over the coming month, suggesting the dollar would be rangebound. Typically, these conditions often coincide with a more negative dollar outlook," said Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global FX at Goldman Sachs. At this point in time I wouldn't say so," said ECB President Christine Lagarde last week after delivering a widely anticipated 25 basis points (bps) rate increase.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs, Christine Lagarde, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo Shrivastava, Sujith Pai, Veronica Khongwir, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reuters, greenback, Federal Reserve, Central Bank, Fed, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of England, bps, Bank of, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bank of Japan

The referendum, which comes amid a wider reckoning over race relations, proposes to change the constitution and establish an advisory body called the Indigenous Voice to Parliament to give Indigenous Australians a direct say in policies that affect them. Five of those polled were funding or planned to fund the "Yes" campaign, while none endorsed nor were contributing to "No". Commonwealth Bank told Reuters it plans to fund the "Yes" campaign and had hosted two panel discussions with Indigenous speakers. Rio Tinto, which faced criticism in 2020 for destroying Indigenous rock shelters, said the Voice would bring an "additional lens" to government decision-making. Aurora Milroy, a lecturer in Indigenous affairs at the University of Western Australia, said supporting the Voice was easy publicity for companies.

Persons: Rita Wright, Loren Elliott, Anthony Albanese, Intifar Chowdhury, Albanese, Meg O'Neill, Ross Piper, Baker McKenzie, Thomas Mayo, Kate Gillingham, Peter Dutton, Coles, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, Aurora Milroy, Byron Kaye, Praveen Menon, Melanie Burton, David Crawshaw, Devayani, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Sujith Pai Organizations: Australian, REUTERS, Australia's, BHP, Rio Tinto, Woodside Energy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Labor, Voice, National, Nine Entertainment, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank, Ethical Investment, Qantas, Australian Financial, Liberal, Fair Australia, Miners, Fortescue Metals, University of Western, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Rio, Western Australia, Woodside, Queensland, University of Western Australia, Melbourne

The pessimistic outlook for exports suggests that Chinese exporters have caught up on unfulfilled orders after last year's COVID-19 disruptions and global demand is insufficient to sustain a recovery in outbound shipments. The official PMI sub indexes for May showed factory output swung to contraction from expansion while new orders, including new exports, fell for a second month. South Korean shipments to China, a leading indicator of China's imports, slid 20.8% in May, marking the 12th straight annual loss, but the pace eased to the slowest seen in seven months. China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter due to robust services consumption, but factory output has continued to lag amid persistent weak global growth. Polling by Devayani Sathyan and Sujith Pai; Reporting by Joe Cash; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Devayani Sathyan, Sujith Pai, Joe Cash, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: PMI, Nomura, Barclays, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Shanghai, China

☆ Aussie housing dip over, prices to rebound into next year on rate view
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, June 1 (Reuters) - Australia's housing market outlook has improved significantly, with home prices expected to on average stagnate this year compared to the near double-digit fall predicted three months ago, according to a Reuters poll of housing analysts. They were then forecast to rise 4.5% in 2024, almost twice the expected rate from the previous poll. While ANZ and Westpac forecast no growth this year, CBA expected a 3.0% rise and NAB predicted a 4.0% decline in prices. "We are almost at the top of the RBA's hiking cycle, which means the headwind on property prices from rates ratcheting higher has largely run its course." (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Vivek Mishra; Polling by Sujith Pai and Veronica Khongwir; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross FinleyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Adelaide Timbrell, Gareth Aird, Shane Oliver, Vivek Mishra, Sujith Pai, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley Organizations: Bank of Australia, ANZ, Westpac, CBA, NAB, Economics, AMP, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, New Zealand

☆ India inflation likely hit 18-month low in April - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Predictions ranged from 4.40% to 5.80%, with respondents expecting inflation to remain below the RBI's 6.00% upper tolerance limit for the second consecutive month. "Food inflation was a mixed bag on the month, with cereals and vegetables easing, whilst pulses and milk rose. "With inflation off the boil besides core (inflation), the RBI is likely to remain on an extended pause." However, inflation was expected to remain well above the RBI's medium-term target of 4.0% in the coming quarters, according to a separate poll. The survey also showed wholesale price inflation (INWPI=ECI), which measures the change in producer prices, is likely to have fallen to -0.20% last month compared to a year ago.

BEIJING, May 8 (Reuters) - China's exports were expected to have risen again in April, albeit at a less robust pace than a month earlier, a Reuters poll showed, supported by unfulfilled orders after last year's COVID disruptions though slowing global growth is darkening the outlook. With many of China's major trade partners on the brink of recession, analysts remain wary about the outlook, noting that the stunning improvement in March partly reflects suppliers catching up with unfulfilled orders from last year's COVID disruptions. South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's imports, were down 26.5% in April, continuing 10 consecutive months of decline. China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter thanks to robust services consumption, but factory output has lagged amid weak global growth. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of around 5% for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal.

A 25 basis-point rise would take Bank Rate to 4.25%, where most economists said it would stay for at least a year. But investors have turned more doubtful about the BoE's appetite for more rate hikes in recent days amid mounting anxieties about the global banking sector. Interest rate futures on Friday showed traders were putting a roughly 50-50 chance on the BoE maintaining Bank Rate at 4% next week. Investors expect a 25 basis-point rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday, a day before the BoE's announcement. Forty-two of 47 economists polled by Reuters between March 13-16 expected the BoE to announce a 25 basis-point hike, hold Bank Rate at 4.25% for at least year and then lower it.

Summary Poll dataBENGALURU, March 7 (Reuters) - India's housing market will remain resilient despite rising interest rates and a weak global economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts who have barely changed their forecasts from three months ago. Defying a global trend of falling housing prices as mortgage rates rise and crimp affordability, India has exhibited resilience and is emerging from a decade-long downturn due to strong demand. A major source of employment in a country of 1.4 billion people where a majority are unskilled, the Indian housing market is likely to remain a stable contributor to economic activity in Asia's third-largest economy. A recent increase in unemployment also raises concerns about the sustainability of the current housing market trend. "Amid rising prices, affordability will only worsen in the coming quarters.

Mortgage rates had been broadly declining since October but resumed their ascent in recent weeks on expectations the Fed will keep its federal funds rate higher for longer. While house prices probably had a bit further to fall, an overall housing shortage will broadly support these historically-elevated levels, Sunbury said. "We don't think affordability will return to its post-GFC levels or even its pre-pandemic average in the coming years." The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, currently at 6.5%, will average 6.35% this year, the poll found. (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Indradip Ghosh and Prerana Bhat; Polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Sujith Pai; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross Finley and Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ At least two more Fed rate hikes and no cut this year, say economists: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

All 37 who replied to an extra question said the bigger risk was the fed funds rate would peak even higher. That means the Fed is going to keep the policy rate at high levels for quite a bit longer." One-third, or 18 of those 54 economists, predicted the fed funds rate would peak at 4.75%-5.00% and hold there through the remainder of the year. The unemployment rate, currently at the lowest since 1969, was expected to climb to 4.8% in Q1 2024, by which time most economists were expecting at least one rate cut. Asked which was more likely to compel a rate cut, 21 of 35 economists said a significant fall in inflation, with 14 saying a significant rise in unemployment.

☆ European Central Bank to raise deposit rate to 3.25% by mid-year - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ECB President Christine Lagarde and her Governing Council will take the deposit rate to 2.50% on Feb. 2, said 55 of 59 economists in the Jan. 13-20 poll. The central bank will then add 25 basis points next quarter before pausing, giving a terminal rate in the current cycle of 3.25%, its highest since late 2008. In December's poll, the rate was put at 2.50% at end-March and was seen topping out at 2.75%. Reuters Poll - ECB deposit rate outlookAsked how the risks were skewed to their terminal deposit rate forecasts, over two-thirds of respondents, 23 of 33, said it was more likely it ends higher rather than lower than they currently expect. The refinancing rate was expected to rise 50 basis points to 3.00% next week and reach a peak of 3.50% in March.

☆ Malaysia central bank to hike rates to 3.00% on Thursday: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Sujith Pai | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) became in May last year one of the first Asian central banks to hike rates in the current cycle and has added a cumulative 100 basis points. Median forecasts in the poll showed inflation to average 3.0% this year, an upgrade from the 2.8% predicted in October. All but one of 27 economists in the Jan. 10-16 Reuters poll forecast the central bank to hike its overnight policy rate (MYINTR=ECI) to 3.00%, where it was before the pandemic, at its meeting on Jan. 19. While a slim majority of respondents, 13 of 24, expected rates to still be 3.00% at end-March, 10 of them had a 3.25% forecast. Nearly 60% of economists, 14 of 24, expected rates to reach 3.25% or above by end-June, a quarter point higher from a November poll.

☆ U.S. heading into shallow recession, no respite from rate hikes yet: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Unless inflation recedes quickly, the U.S. economy still appears headed for some trouble, though possibly a little later than expected. Although the fed funds rate is expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% early next year in line with interest rate futures, one-third of economists, 24 of 72, expected it to go higher. A large majority of economists, 35 of 48, said any recession would be short and shallow. Eight said long and shallow, while four said there won't be any recession. The U.S. unemployment rate (USUNR=ECI), which so far has stayed low, was expected to climb from the current 3.7% to 4.9% by early 2024.

☆ ECB set to raise deposit rate 50 bps as euro zone enters recession -economists
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Jonathan Cable | Leigh Thomas | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It will lift its deposit rate by another 50 bps on Dec. 15, taking it to 2.00%, and do the same to the refinancing rate, putting it at 2.50%, according to the median forecasts in the Nov. 15-21 Reuters poll. That deposit rate view was held by a majority of 45 of 62 respondents, while 14 said it would add another 75 bps as it has done at its previous two meetings. When asked about the risks to their deposit rate forecasts, 18 of 22 economists said it would end higher, either earlier of later than they expect. However, collectively economists gave a 70% probability their deposit rate peak forecasts were accurate. GDP was predicted to fall 0.4% this quarter and in the first quarter of next year, meeting the technical definition of recession.

☆ German home prices to fall 3.5% next year as buyers feel the pinch
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - German house prices will fall 3.5% next year as the cost of living crisis and rising borrowing costs hits consumers, but the chances of an outright crash are low, according to a Reuters poll of property market experts. Average house prices in Germany will fall 3.5% in 2023 the Nov. 8-18 poll of 12 market watchers predicted, a sharp turnaround from the 0.5% increase predicted in an August poll. In 2024 they will fall 0.5% but then rise 1.0% in 2025. Still, the median response when asked how much prices would fall from peak to trough was 10.0%, with the steepest drop given as 17.5%. (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Jonathan Cable; Polling by Sujith Pai and Aditi Verma; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed terminal rate to reach just under 5%, said bond strategists
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

With scant evidence of sustained cooling in inflation, global central banks are unlikely to deviate yet from their current tightening paths. If any, the bias was for them to take interest rates higher or keep them at elevated levels for longer. He also said the "ultimate level" of the central bank's benchmark policy rate was likely to be higher than previously estimated. The median forecast from over 30 bond strategists who answered an additional question in the Nov. 4-9 poll put the terminal fed funds rate at 4.75%-5.00%, with one forecast as high as 5.50%-5.75%. A strong 74% majority, 23 of 31, expected the terminal rate to be reached by end-Q1 2023.

☆ Canadian dollar forecasts cut as BoC trails Fed on peak-rate bets - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The currency has weakened over 7% against the U.S. dollar since the start of 2022. It was then expected to rally to 1.31 in a year, versus 1.30 expected in last month's poll. "That implied spread between terminal rates in Canada and the United States will probably have to widen out further and that could take the U.S. dollar higher across the board including against the Canadian dollar." Investors are betting on a terminal rate, or peak level for interest rates, from the BoC in the coming months of 4.25%. "We see less interest in investing money back into the ground in the oil patch when oil prices are high and so there's less room (for the currency) to fall when oil prices are low."

☆ POLL Dollar's retreat temporary, likely to reclaim recent highs
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The dollar's retreat in foreign exchange markets is temporary, according to a Reuters poll of currency strategists, who said the greenback still had enough strength left to reclaim or surpass its recent highs and resume its relentless rise. The Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday, its fourth jumbo increase in a row. However, for the December meeting interest rate futures showed a split on the odds of a 75 or 50 basis point increase. Those six and 12-month median forecasts were a slight upgrade from the October poll and the first since April. It was expected to trade around 146.0, 141.7 and 135.0 per dollar over the next three, six and 12 months respectively.

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