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Today is triple witching expiration , the quarterly expiration of single stock and index options, and index futures. It's occurring at an unusual moment: the S & P 500 is at an historic high. Week after triple witch: poor Unfortunately, the week after the September triple witch is historically among the weakest of the year. S & P 500 rebalancing today The S & P 500 will see three new entrants at the close today, each of which will begin trading as part of the S & P on Monday: Dell Technologies , Erie Indemnity and Palantir Technologies . Finally, while the S & P 500 is at a new high, the Russell 2000 smallcap index is not far behind.
Persons: Chris Murphy, Jeff Hirsch, Dow Industrials, Hirsch, Dell, Russell Organizations: Stock, Nasdaq, Dell Technologies, Erie, Palantir Technologies, Etsy, Rad Laboratories, American Airlines Group Locations: Susquehanna
With that seasonal volatility in mind, Evercore ISI screened for stocks that may continue to outperform in the current climate. The investment bank combed through the Russell 3000 for stocks that are in the top quintiles for momentum, sentiment and buybacks. One company that made the Evercore ISI screen was mobile tech company AppLovin . Evercore ISI also highlighted Sprouts Farmers Market as a potential outperformer. Evercore ISI upgraded Sprouts to outperform from in line this week.
Persons: Russell, LSEG, BTIG, Benjamin Budish, Robinhood, Michael Montani Organizations: Stock, Federal, UBS, FactSet, Financial, LSEG, Barclays, ISI
The good news outweighs the bad Seasonality aside, the market is riding a wave of momentum, and with good reason: 1) The market "broadening" trend is very real. At Jackson Hole, chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the Fed had shifted its attention from fighting inflation to the job market. S&P 500 in September: It's been ugly recently (rounded) 2023: down 5%2022: down 9%2021: down 5%2020: down 4% The elections are another wildcard. Two-thirds of the S&P 500 was up in August. Most importantly, the Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) modestly outperformed the S&P 500 in August and closed Friday at an historic high.
Persons: Frank Gretz, Wellington Shields, Robert Hum, It's, Consumer Staples, Jerome Powell, David Smith, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Dow, NASDAQ, Russell, NYSE, Megacap Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Consumer, Estate, Technology, American Association of, Bulls, PCE, Fed, Rockland Trust, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Wellington, Meta, Rockland, New York City, U.S
Going back to 1953, the S & P 500 has climbed around 0.5% during the final week of August on a median basis, according to data analyzed by Bespoke Investment Group. That is a bright spot ahead of a historically weak period for the market. September ranks as the worst month on average for the S & P 500 going back to 1950, according to data from the Stock Trader's Almanac. Almanac data shows the S & P 500 is flat on average for the month. .SPX 1M mountain The S & P 500, 1 month The upcoming week also has some events that may move the market in the trading month's final days.
Organizations: Investment Group, Stock, Investors
It's not just that it has been a down month (down 3.0% for the S & P 500, breaking a 5-month win streak). However, weaker does not mean down. The S & P, even in the weakest five months, was still up almost 2%. The bottom line: market timing is always a tricky affair. Many of these timing maxims could be trumped by an even better one: "It's time in the market that matters, not market timing."
Persons: It's, Nicholas Colas, Jeff Hirsch, it's Organizations: Dow, Stock Locations: It's, DataTrek
The S & P 500 is down by more than 3% this month, though it has still registered a more than 6% advance for the year. But many investors worry stocks have further to go before finding a durable bottom. They say stocks look overvalued even after the recent pullback, and they cite troubling headwinds for equities. 'Sell in May and go away' May has a reputation as a historically weak month for stocks. Carson Group's Ryan Detrick noted that stocks have actually been higher in May during the last nine out of 10 years.
Persons: Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery Scott, Jeff Hirsch, he's, It's, Hirsch, Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, we've Organizations: Investors, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Treasury Bond ETF
Seasonally speaking, stocks could be in for a pullback as the calendar turns to March in a presidential election year. In every March since 1950, the S & P 500 historically rises 1.1%, but the same month in presidential election years scores a smaller 0.4% advance on average. Currently, the S & P 500 is trading around the 5,100 level. But Hirsch advised investors to watch S & P 500 support levels closer to 4,800, the prior all-time high, or 4,600, the high from the summer of 2023. That's because Hirsch anticipates the S & P 500 will rise to 5,500 by year end, so any dips may prove a buying opportunity for investors.
Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch, Russell, Hirsch, it's, you've, , Hirsch isn't, Katie Stockton, Sam Stovall, Stovall Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, CFRA Research
The S & P 500 is about to do something unusual that has typically been followed by strong gains ahead. There have been only been 28 instances in which the S & P 500 has risen over the first two months of the year. The S & P 500 hit record highs in recent weeks, prompting questions about whether it can continue advancing or is due for a correction. With last week's advance, the S & P 500 officially finished 15 of the last 17 completed trading weeks in the green. The S & P 500 went on to finish that year up by a whopping 27.3%.
Persons: what's, Henry Allen, Allen, Madonna Organizations: Carson Group, Deutsche Bank, Bretton Locations: U.S
That's according to the "January barometer" from the "Stock Trader's Almanac," which argues that "as the S & P 500 goes in January, so goes the rest of the year." The S & P 500 has managed to trade above the 4,900 level already this month and is currently up 3.3% in the new year. That's enough to put the broad market index trading above Wall Street strategists' average 2024 target of 4,914, according to the CNBC PRO Market Strategist Survey. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in 2024 Election Year Notably, 2024 is a U.S. presidential election year. By comparison, the S & P 500 typically gains 15% in those years with a higher January.
Persons: Stocks, Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Sam Stovall, Outperformers, Dow, Stovall, What's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Wall, CNBC, Market, Survey, Bank of America, Dow Jones Locations: U.S
Despite a huge rally Monday led by tech stocks that drove up the S & P 500 by 1.4%, a second seasonal indicator is flashing red. First the Santa Claus Rally failed. Now the First Five Days indicator is also negative. The S & P 500 is down 0.1% in the first five trading days of the year. The Santa Claus Rally and the First Five Days indicator have failed together 9 times since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.
Persons: Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, There's Organizations: Santa Claus, Stock
The Santa Claus rally is in trouble. With one day left in the trade, the S & P 500 is down 0.1% in the past six days. Fortunately, a negative Santa Claus rally period doesn't happen very often, only 12 times since 1969 — less than 25% of the time. "That is 16 out of 16 years, which includes years with recessions, like 2020," Clifton notes. The outperformance is notable: The S & P tends to be stronger by 1.3% on average.
Persons: Santa Claus, Jeff Hirsch, Tom McClellan, Hirsch, Dan Clifton, Clifton, Biden, Jason Trennert, Strategas, There's Organizations: Santa, Treasury, Bloomberg Locations: Santa, Santa Claus, U.S, Strategas, Mexico, India, Taiwan, Pakistan, Indonesia, South Africa, Tunisia
Friday is the official start of the Santa Claus rally. What the Santa Claus Rally is, and isn't Over the years, Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac has repeatedly told me the key to understanding the Santa Claus rally is that it is not a trading strategy, it is an indicator. Fortunately, a negative Santa Claus rally period doesn't happen very often, only 12 times since 1969 (less than 25% of the time). In the years when the Santa Claus period is negative, the S & P is up an average of only 5.0%, versus an average gain of 9.1% in all years. You can see this very clearly in this chart: The common explanation is that: 1) markets are stronger with a sitting president because a sitting President can pull levers to help the economy, and 2) markets tend to be weaker with no sitting president because of increased uncertainty around economic outcomes.
Persons: Santa Claus, Yale Hirsch, Ryan Detrick, I've, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch Organizations: Carson Group, Santa Locations: Santa
The S & P ended last December down almost 6% and ended all of 2022 down almost 20% (19.4% to be exact). 2 022 was an odd duck Last year was an unusual one — unusual because market declines of 20% don't happen very often. And the S & P 500? The S & P dropped 25% from the January 2022 closing high of 4,793 to the bottom of 3,577 in October 2022. Three-quarters of the time, the S & P 500 goes up from one year to the next.
Persons: Stocks, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Down
Historically, November is the best month of the year for the stock market, and December is third, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Under the surface this week, we also saw signs of a possible market rotation in the works. Rotation watch : We must look to next week's trading for confirmation that we're in the grips of a rotation or simply a head fake. Signs of the former were on display this week as the two of the biggest sector winners of the year, communication services and technology , trailed the market. Jobs, jobs, jobs : The most important release of the week comes Friday in the form of the November nonfarm payrolls report.
Persons: Jerome Powell, That's, Locker, it's, Hock Tan, We'll, Joann, JOAN, JM Smucker, OLLI, Campbell Soup, Brown, Forman, LULU, Smith, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Wall, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, Cisco Systems, VMWare, Club, PMI, Labor, Signet Jewelers, SIG, Brands, Toll, Thor Industries, Natural Foods, GameStop, Vail Resorts, MTN, Smith & Wesson, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Asana, ASAN, New York City
Wall Street will endeavor to keep the November momentum going in the final month of 2023, as investors look for a broadening out of the rally that has been dominated this year by a handful of tech names. It also marked the best monthly performance for the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite since July 2022. While the S & P 500 cap-weighted index climbed more than 18% this year, the equal-weighted index is up by just over 4%. They highlight the attractive relative valuation of value stocks compared to growth stocks, as well as the significant underweighting of value names in portfolios by traders. And the question is, is it going to be in 2024, is it going to be 2025 or in 2026?
Persons: Stocks, Hogan, Olivier Sarfati, GenTrust's Sarfati, Carlos Asilis, Asilis, FactSet, nonfarm payrolls, They're, TK, Nonfarm Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Riley, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Expedia, Paramount Global, Russell, Glovista Investments, PMI, Services PMI, ADP, Labor, Consumer Credit, Broadcom Locations: U.S, Michigan
The stock market is boring right now, and that is not a bad thing. There's a strong backdrop going into December. The S & P 500 was up 8.9%, its best month since July 2022, and the fourth-best November since 1950. If it doesn't seem that way, it's because the S & P has been flat for the past week and a half. There will be lots of complaints about high valuations, and the cynics will be right: The S & P is approaching 19-times 2024 earnings.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, let's Organizations: Triple Witching, Treasury, Atlanta, Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, JPMorgan, Dow, Revenue Locations: Wells Fargo
December is the time of the season when investors seldom have to worry about stock market performance, particularly in years that come before a presidential election. "Trading in December is holiday-inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month," Hirsch recently told subscribers. "However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins." December does even better for small-cap stocks, at least going back to 1979, delivering the year's second-highest monthly return. That small cap return is usually back end loaded, however, only starting around the middle of the month.
Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch, Hirsch, outsized, Dow Industrials, Russell Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft Locations: Decembers
CNBC Pro screened for stocks that tend to rise following the Thanksgiving holiday. Wall Street likes the shares today: At least 55% of analysts polled by FactSet maintain buy ratings. Shares are also well liked by analysts with more than 69% of analysts polled by FactSet maintain a buy rating on CVS. CVS YTD mountain CVS stock. The stock has historically added 2.6% after Thanksgiving with holiday travel in full swing, and shares have climbed 9% in 2023.
Persons: Wall Organizations: Dow Jones, Stock Trader's, CNBC Pro, FactSet, Caesars Entertainment, Culinary Union, Pharmacy, CVS, Delta Locations: Atlanta
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up nearly 18% for the year and less than 2% away from its year-high, reached in July. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, , Yung, Yu Ma, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, ” Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Seasonality, LSEG Datastream, Jason Pride, Keith Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, BMO Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, , CPI, Dakota Wealth, Nvidia, Advisory Services, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up 17% for the year and about 6% from its record closing high from January 2022. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, , Yung, Yu Ma, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, ” Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Seasonality, LSEG Datastream, Jason Pride, Keith Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, BMO Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, , CPI, Dakota Wealth, Nvidia, Advisory Services, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Nvidia earnings will be in focus in the Thanksgiving-shortened week ahead, as investors consider the sustainability of the November rally heading into year-end. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD The chip giant's results will come amid a broad rally for equities this month. The S & P 500 has climbed more than 7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has advanced more than 9%. That stands in marked contrast to the S & P 500, which trades at a multiple of 22. Hopes for a dovish Fed Wall Street is also heading into next week after absorbing some positive news.
Persons: Timothy Arcuri, China —, Piper Sandler, Harsh Kumar, Quincy Krosby, Bill Baruch, CNBC's, That's, Bonds, Giuseppe Sette, Dow, Jeff Hirsch, , Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Microsoft, LPL, Dow, Blue, Investors, Chicago Fed, HP Inc, Autodesk, Devices, Lowe's, Deere, P, PMI, P Global PMI Locations: FactSet, China, Treasurys, Lombard, Michigan
.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Progress, for sure, with something more to prove. And of course, the S & P had only just broken an eight-session win streak before then. There's no doubt the spread between, say, the Nasdaq 100 and the equal-weight S & P 500 is extreme this year, at some 42 percentage points. The S & P 500 High Beta Index, tracked by the SPHB ETF , now trades under 15-times forward earnings, down from 20-times in February and a current 18 for the S & P 500. Earnings growth — even if slow and unevenly bestowed across sectors — tends to limit equity downside at minimum.
Persons: that's, Disinflation Organizations: Federal, stoke, Treasury, Fed, NYSE, Trader's, Nasdaq, Beta Locations: Friday's
Heading into November, CNBC screened for Wall Street's favorite stocks out of the S & P 500, or stocks that met the following criteria: Consensus 12-month price target calls for a 20% or more upside. The average analyst surveyed by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv, has a consensus potential upside of 23% on T-Mobile . The consensus price target for the stock implies a forecast upside of almost 24%. In October, Morgan Stanley named the stock as one of its favorite stock picks in a slowing, late-cycle economy. Other names beloved by Wall Street and highlighted in our screen include Targa Resources , Halliburton and Centene .
Persons: Stocks, Wall, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CNBC, LSEG, Mobile, Energy, Oil, Wall, Resources, Halliburton, Centene
November is typically an outperforming month for Wall Street, according to data from the "Stock Trader's Almanac." The benchmark S & P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have each historically posted an average gain of 1.7% in November, dating back to 1950. Those moves make November the strongest month of the year for the S & P 500 and the second-best month for both the Nasdaq and the 30-stock Dow, according to the almanac. The S & P 500 has slipped roughly 3% so far and is on track for a third-straight month of declines . The string of monthly losses would mark the first such occurrence for the S & P 500 since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
Persons: Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, There's, there's, We've, doesn't, we're, they're Organizations: Wall, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: lockstep
Despite a bleak month in October for the stock market, there may be some good news in store for at least four stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average . All three major market indexes are in the red this month, with the Dow off by 1.5% since the end of September. But investors may find some relief heading into the year end, since historically November has been a strong month for stocks. Analysts surveyed by LSEG have an average rating of hold on Caterpillar. Based on a consensus price target of $288, Caterpillar offers some 27% upside according to analyst estimates.
Persons: Dow, LSEG, Max, — CNBC's Christopher Hayes Organizations: Dow Jones, Stock, Dow, CNBC, Caterpillar, Analysts, LSEG, Boeing, Max . Insurance, UBS
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