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☆ Standard Chartered says Japan 'very, very close' to yen intervention
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Japan is "very, very close" to intervening in the yen, Steven Englander, head of Global G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, told CNBC as the currency languishes at multi-decade lows. "I think we're actually very, very close to them [Japanese authorities] jumping in ... they've already discussed the political consequences and nobody's sitting there asking for a weaker yen," Englander told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Thursday. The Japanese yen traded around 151.47 against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after falling to its weakest level in 34 years at 151.97 in the previous session. Standard Chartered's Englander said potential intervention in the yen would be aimed at buying time for Japanese authorities until the U.S. Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates or until the Bank of Japan hikes its rates a little more. He further noted that when Japanese authorities last intervened in the yen in 2022, it "worked out pretty well," even though investors were initially skeptical of the effectiveness of such currency intervention.

Persons: Steven Englander, they've, nobody's, Englander, CNBC's, Shunichi Suzuki, Masato Kanda, Yoshimasa Hayashi Organizations: Global, Standard Chartered Bank, CNBC, U.S, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan Locations: Japan, North America, .

☆ Japan is 'very, very close' to intervening in the yen, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJapan is 'very, very close' to intervening in the yen, strategist saysSteven Englander, head of Global G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, says "I think the market wants to push them to show their cards, and I think that they will react aggressively to that, and at some point intervene if it looks as if new highs are being hit."

Persons: Steven Englander Organizations: Japan, Global, Standard Chartered Bank Locations: North America

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda attends a press conference after its policy meeting in Tokyo, Japan October 31, 2023, in this photo taken by Kyodo. In addition, interest rate changes were asymmetric — Fed rate hikes following stock market recoveries were usually muted compared with the initial cuts. This was an explicit, open-ended policy to hold the currency at a set level and flood the Swiss economy and markets with oceans of liquidity, but essentially still a central bank put. As Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex points out, it is financial stability that is ultimately - and rightly - at the heart of the so-called central bank put. "There is a perception or myth that has built up around the central bank put.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Alan Greenspan, Louis, William Poole, Greenspan, Steven Englander, Marc Chandler, Chandler, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Japan, Kyodo, REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Louis Fed, Swiss National Bank, Standard Chartered, National Bureau of Economic Research, Swiss, Reuters, Bannockburn Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, New York, Switzerland, Swiss, Bannockburn

In 2022 the bond market crash saw the value of central banks' Treasuries holdings plunge by $435 billion, Bertaut and Judson's estimates show. This doesn't suggest central banks are dumping Treasuries, be it for financial or political reasons. What's more, these figures don't account for what analysts describe as stealth or shadow central bank demand not included in the official data. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsIt is undeniable, however, that the collective central bank footprint in the Treasuries market is nowhere near what it used to be. For now, central banks are still buying, just not as much as they used to.

Persons: Abraham Lincoln, Gary Cameron, chunky, Carol Bertaut, Ruth Judson, That's, Steven Englander, Judson, Lehman Brothers, Jamie McGeever, David Holmes Organizations: Engraving, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, of America, Bank of America, BANK, Standard Chartered, Treasuries, Fed, ICE, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Beijing, China, Saudi Arabia, American Republic, North America, Belgium

☆ US exceptionalism thwarts dollar bears but Fed test looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Signs that the dollar will continue enjoying its yield-advantage over other currencies have undercut support for bearish views on the greenback. That theme will be tested in September, as the market braces for a flood of key U.S. economic data as well as the Fed's monetary policy meeting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's message at next week's monetary policy meeting could also influence the dollar's trajectory. While Englander is bearish the dollar in the medium term, the currency's "underlying drivers have been going so much in the opposite direction," he said. Other dollar rebounds this year, in March and May, failed at levels not far from where the dollar index trades now.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, It's, Vassili Serebriakov, Jerome Powell's, Steven Englander, Serebriakov, it's, Kit Juckes, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Laura Matthews, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Futures Trading, UBS, Reuters Graphics, Fed, Standard Chartered, Reuters, TD Securities, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States

In some ways, China and Japan are joined at the hip. As beggar-thy-neighbor foreign exchange depreciation pressures bubble up across Asia, the attraction of a weaker exchange rate grows. In terms of bilateral trade between China and Japan, the attraction is equally clear. China is Japan's largest trading partner, Japan is China's third-largest individual nation trading partner, and bilateral trade is worth around $370 billion annually. Remarkably, the yen has depreciated 25% against the yuan over the last three years, giving corporate Japan a substantial competitive advantage over China Inc.

Persons: Steven Englander, Brad Setser, Jamie McGeever Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Asian Development Bank, Standard Chartered, Finance, Bank for International, China Inc, of Foreign Relations, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Japan, China, Asia, East Asia, Beijing

Analysis of global central bank coffers does show the dollar's share of overall reserve holdings is gradually being chipped away - but the official sector is not selling dollar-denominated assets. In fact it's still buying them on aggregate, and the private sector is too. The overseas private sector was also a solid buyer of U.S. agency debt, further calling into question the narrative in some market quarters that the dollar's status as the world's preeminent currency is rapidly eroding. Jen calculates that the dollar's share of official global reserves slumped to 47% last year, down from 55% the year before and 73% in 2001. Including the private sector, total foreign inflows into Treasuries over the past two years have been substantial.

☆ Focus shouldn't be on how much the Fed cuts rates but on where they cut to: Standard Chartered
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFocus shouldn't be on how much the Fed cuts rates but on where they cut to: Standard CharteredSteven Englander of the bank says it'll be "troublesome" if inflation doesn't start approaching the U.S. Federal Reserve's target.

☆ The U.S. Fed's smaller rate hike brings dollar strength closer to its end
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Kacper Pempel | ReutersThe U.S. dollar index continued to slump on Thursday as the Federal Reserve opted for a smaller interest rate hike of 25 basis points. The DXY fell 0.3% during Asia's morning session to 100.91, hovering at the lowest levels that it's seen since April 2022, according to Refinitiv data. watch nowThe turnaround in the dollar index will benefit currencies in the region, said Deutsche Bank International Private Bank's Asia-Pacific chief investment officer, Stephanie Holtze-Jen. "The relentless dollar strength, we will see an end to it," Holtze-Jen told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia." More data aheadStandard Chartered Bank's managing director Steven Englander said Friday's jobs data will be in focus for the dollar index.

☆ Japan's authorities have done 'fairly well' in currency interventions: Standard Chartered
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJapan's authorities have done 'fairly well' in currency interventions: Standard CharteredSteven Englander of the bank discusses Japanese intervention in the currency market and how authorities could make a profit on its intervention.

Updated projections from the Fed's Sept. 20-21 policy meeting show that rate-setters' outlook for the economy's equilibrium rate of interest rate over time remained 2.5%. Bearing in mind that the Fed's inflation target is 2.0%, this suggests that the real rate of interest - r-star (r*), the nebulous, inflation-adjusted interest rate that neither fuels nor curbs growth - is also unchanged at 0.5%. The fact it didn't suggests the Fed still sees sky-high inflation as ultimately 'transitory', albeit as a result of its punishing interest rate rises and more prolonged than it had previously anticipated. chartNEBULOUS RATEThe Fed's policy target rate is now 3.00%-3.25%, the highest since 2008, and the Fed's latest projections show it rising to the 4.25%-4.50% range by the end of this year and ending 2023 at 4.50%-4.75%. Steven Englander, head of FX strategy at Standard Chartered, suggests the neutral rate is perhaps 3.00%, maybe even higher.

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