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☆ Consumer on the cusp of significant slowdown, says Santander's Stephen Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumer on the cusp of significant slowdown, says Santander's Stephen StanleyCNBC's Steve Liesman and Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, join 'The Exchange' to discuss macro trends, signs of consumer weakness, and more.

Persons: Santander's Stephen Stanley, Steve Liesman, Stephen Stanley Organizations: Santander U.S, Capital Markets

☆ Inflation Moderated Slightly in April, Offering Some Relief for Consumers
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Consumer Price Index climbed 3.4 percent in April from a year earlier, down from 3.5 percent in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. It was the lowest annual increase in core inflation since early 2021. Economists cautioned that one month of encouraging data was far from enough to put those worries to rest. But they said that the data should ease concerns, at least for now, that inflation is re-accelerating. Both overall and core prices rose 0.3 percent from the previous month, down from 0.4 percent in February and March.

Persons: ”, Stephen Stanley Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Santander

☆ Live Updates: Inflation Cooled Slightly, Offering Some Relief for Consumers and the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +6 min

But economists cautioned that one month of encouraging data was far from enough to set those worries to rest. Both overall and core prices rose 0.3 percent from the previous month, down from 0.4 percent in February and March. The encouraging inflation report on Wednesday is unlikely to change those expectations. The report is also likely to be met with relief at the White House after what has been a rough recent run of inflation data for President Biden. Gasoline prices rose a seasonally adjusted 2.8 percent in April from March.

Persons: “, ”, Stephen Stanley, there’s, Sarah House, Biden, Jerome H, Powell, we’re, Blerina Uruci, Rowe Price, Jeanna Smialek, Jim Tankersley Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Santander, White, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed Locations: Wells Fargo, Amsterdam, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ The 'supercore' inflation measure shows Fed may have a real problem on its hands
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Eric Baradat | AFP | Getty ImagesA hotter-than-expected consumer price index reading rattled markets Wednesday, but markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading. Along with the overall inflation measure, economists also look at the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to find the true trend. The supercore gauge, which also excludes shelter and rent costs from its services reading, takes it even a step further. Today, he added, the picture is more complicated because some of the most stubborn components of services inflation are household necessities like car and housing insurance as well as property taxes. Sticky inflation problem

Persons: Jerome Powell, Eric Baradat, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick, Dow Jones, Stephen Stanley, Ian Lyngen, we're Organizations: AFP, Getty, O'Brien & Associates, Dow, Santander U.S, Wall, CPI, BMO Capital Markets, Fed Locations: Washington ,

☆ The Fed won't cut rates until after the 2024 election, Santander chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed won't cut rates until after the 2024 election, Santander's chief economist told Bloomberg. That's because inflation is likely to remain stubborn and cutting rates closer to the election date could be controversial. But according to Stanley, inflation numbers won't look as strong this year as they were toward the end of last year. But introducing the first rate cut closer to election day is trickier, and could be construed as a boost to incumbent president Joe Biden. And Stanley argued that based on their comments at the January meeting, the Fed doesn't seem close to being convinced about an early rate cut.

Persons: Santander's, —, Stephen Stanley, Stanley, We've, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Jerome Powell's Organizations: Bloomberg, Service

☆ Why it could be a 'lose-lose' situation for Wall Street when the Fed finally does cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wall Street's outlook on Fed rate cuts is setting the stage for a "lose-lose situation," says Deutsche Bank macroeconomic strategist Henry Allen. Indeed, the last four times we've seen rate cuts that fast, it's been because of the most recent four U.S. recessions," he wrote. To be sure, rapid rate cuts without a preceding recession isn't an impossible scenario, but that doesn't mean it's likely either, Allen noted. Paul Volcker's chairmanship of the Fed in the 1980s, for example, saw steep rate cuts, although that followed a period of extremely restrictive monetary policy. "[It's] hard to see how both rate markets and risk markets can both continue to thrive as they have recently," Stanley said.

Persons: Henry Allen, Allen, Paul Volcker's, Allen isn't, Stephen Stanley, Stanley, Stocks, Deutsche Bank's Allen Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Markets, Federal, Traders, Santander U.S, Deutsche Locations: U.S, Vietnam

☆ The economy eventually will slow, says Santander's Stephen Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy eventually will slow, says Santander's Stephen StanleyStephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander, and Barry Knapp, director of research at Ironsides Macroeconomics, join 'The Exchange' to discuss inflation, growth in the fourth quarter, and more.

Persons: Santander's Stephen Stanley Stephen Stanley, Barry Knapp Organizations: Santander

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Santander's Stephen Stanley and Ironsides Macroeconomics' Barry Knapp
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Santander's Stephen Stanley and Ironsides Macroeconomics' Barry KnappStephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander, and Barry Knapp, director of research at Ironsides Macroeconomics, join 'The Exchange' to discuss inflation, growth in the fourth quarter, and more.

Persons: Santander's Stephen Stanley, Barry Knapp Stephen Stanley, Barry Knapp Organizations: Santander

☆ The Fed will skip rate hikes in September and November, says Santander's Stephen Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will skip rate hikes in September and November, says Santander's Stephen StanleyStephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist for Santander US Capital Markets, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss lower inflation numbers informing the Fed's outlook, the plan for future Fed rate hikes, and the impact student loan repayments may have on consumer spending.

Persons: Santander's Stephen Stanley Stephen Stanley, Steve Liesman Organizations: Santander US Capital Markets

☆ If there is a recession, it's likely to happen in 2024: Santander's Stephen Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIf there is a recession, it's likely to happen in 2024: Santander's Stephen StanleyCNBC's Steve Liesman and Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss their takeaways from the Fed minutes.

Persons: Santander's Stephen Stanley, Steve Liesman, Stephen Stanley Organizations: Santander

☆ CNBC Daily Open: May’s CPI reading lets Fed pause hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Though the annual rate of inflation at 4% is still two times the Fed's target, it's the slowest increase since March 2021. That category tends to not reflect the current rental market because the CPI looks at the rental prices people are currently paying, not the rental prices landlords are asking for now. That leaves room for the Fed to pause its rate hikes. Traders think there's only a 10% chance the Fed will raise rates, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Persons: Stephen Stanley, Gargi Chaudhuri Organizations: CNBC, Fed, Traders Locations: U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: May’s CPI tells the Fed it can pause hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. That category tends to not reflect the current rental market because the CPI looks at the rental prices people are currently paying, not the rental prices landlords are asking for now. That leaves room for the Fed to pause its rate hikes. Traders think there's only a 8% chance the Fed will raise rates, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Persons: Stephen Stanley, Gargi Chaudhuri Organizations: CNBC, Fed, Traders Locations: U.S

☆ Lending standards may change in response to deposit fears, says Santander's Stephen Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLending standards may change in response to deposit fears, says Santander's Stephen StanleyCNBC’s Steve Liesman,and Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss dislocations in the market, the Fed's plan to drain excess liquidity, and the impact of bank failures on regional banks.

☆ SVB: What the worst bank failure since 2008 means for markets, the financial sector, and interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Here's what SVB's sudden demise means for markets, the US banking sector, and interest rates. That capped a turbulent week that saw a botched fundraising attempt by Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and a $1.8 billion loss on its bond holdings, which ultimately triggered an old-fashioned bank run. Silicon Valley Bank's collapse exposed a serious risk many banks face in their business portfolios – the dependence on uninsured deposits. However, former Treasury chief Larry Summers took a less pessimistic view, saying SVB's collapse was "unlikely to be a broadly systemic problem." But as bad as it is, it's unlikely to trigger a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis that set the stage for the Great Recession, according to analysts.

☆ Builders will scramble to catch up to demand for years, says Santander's Stephen Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBuilders will scramble to catch up to demand for years, says Santander's Stephen StanleyUBS’s John Lovallo and Santander’s Stephen Stanley join 'The Exchange' to discuss the state of housing as more affluent Americans rent.

☆ GDP report could show solid fourth-quarter growth but still signal a recession is coming, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Economic growth is expected to have slowed slightly in the fourth quarter but was still solid, driven by a strong consumer. According to Dow Jones, economists expect that U.S. gross domestic product grew by 2.8% in the fourth quarter, down from the 3.2% pace in the third quarter. While economists see a strong fourth quarter, they are divided on where the economy goes from here and a key is the consumer. The slowdown in residential investment has taken a full percentage point off of growth in the fourth quarter, he said. Some market strategists see a strong fourth quarter as another sign the economy could avoid falling into recession, and a better-than-expected report could reinforce that view.

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