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☆ Keep buying the 'Trump trades' through inauguration, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Hakyung Kim | In Hakyungkim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Cryptocurrencies and banks have been on a tear since President-elect Donald Trump's victory last week, and Societe Generale thinks these "Trump trades" have more room to run into January. The firm specifically underscored bank stocks, companies exposed to the reshoring theme, small-cap names and crypto. "Trump trades are in full bloom and should continue to outperform until Inauguration Day, in our view," U.S. chief economist Stephen Gallagher wrote in a Thursday research note. Gallagher is not the only one on Wall Street who thinks the "Trump trade" has more legs. Societe Generale said its Trump 2.0 thematic basket has jumped more than 7% in the week since the election, but it is only up 15% in 2024, compared to the S & P 500 's 25% year-to-date gains.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Stephen Gallagher, Russell, bitcoin, Gallagher, Jason Draho Organizations: Societe Generale, Trump, US, US Banks, SG Global, Wall, UBS Locations: US

☆ Welcome to ‘the Tepid Twenties’? The US economy’s strength won’t be enough to boost global growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-05 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Invigorating growth is critical: When the economy expands, it improves standards of living, promotes innovation and makes households wealthier. Economic growth in Spain and France was stronger than expected last year. But the US is outperforming mainly for one key reason: Robust productivity growth. Productivity growth came in well below expectations in the first three months of the year, according to Labor Department data released last week. A “course correction” isn’t an even stronger US economy: Economic policymakers around the world need to address a range of key issues.

Persons: ” Kristalina Georgieva, ” Georgieva, ” Stephen Gallagher, Gallagher, “, ”, Hande Atay Alam, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel Katz, John Williams, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, Krispy Kreme, John’s, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Washington CNN, Monetary, IMF, European Central Bank, Labor Department, Societe Generale, CNN, Reuters, Palantir Technologies, Tyson Foods, Marriott Worldwide, New York Fed, Disney, UBS, Duke Energy, Suncor, Bros, Minneapolis, Toyota, Uber, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Airbnb, Fox Corporation, News Corporation, Duolingo, Icahn Enterprises, New York Times Company, AMC Entertainment, Honda, Warner Bros Discovery, Warner Music Group, Hyatt, Hilton, Bank of England, US Labor Department, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, University of Michigan, . Chicago Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Europe, China, United States, Spain, France, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Israel, Gaza, Olesya, “ Turkey, Lyft, TripAdvisor

That implied 'terminal' rate is lower than Fed officials' new year-end median projection of 5.60%. When set against the implied 2023 year-end SOFR rate of 5.20%, traders are pricing in almost 150 bps of rate cuts next year. Analysts at TD Securities reckon the Fed is done raising rates and will begin easing in December this year. This is the first time in more than a year no rate cuts have been priced into the 2023 SOFR futures curve. Just over a month ago, the curve implied around 100 bps of rate cuts in the second half of this year.

Persons: they're, Societe Generale's Stephen Gallagher, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Fed, Traders, Reuters, Securities, Societe, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida

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