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Goldman Sachs' 12-month recession probability is hovering at 15%, about the "historical unconditional average." A WSJ survey showed the consensus probability of a downturn in the next year dipped below 50% for the first time since mid-2022. Here's how recession expectations have changed over the last 18 months. The consensus among Wall Street economists has shifted again, tilting further in favor of the no recession camp, at least in the near to medium-term. AdvertisementAdvertisement"That model implies larger effects of monetary policy and faster policy transmission than other empirical models," the economists explained in September.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , That's, Goldman, Stefania D'Amico, Thomas King Organizations: Service, Street, Journal’s, Economic, Goldman Sachs Investment, Chicago, Consumer, Index
Economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago predict inflation will cool without a recession. "That model implies larger effects of monetary policy and faster policy transmission than other empirical models," the economists said. So far, based on the analysis, tighter policy has resulted in 5.4 percentage points in the level of real GDP and 7.1 percentage points in CPI. That represents about 65% and 75% of the total tightening effects on the levels of real GDP and CPI, respectively, that will occur, according to the model. Policy has reduced total hours worked by about 4 percentage points, or about 40% of the total effect that is ultimately projected.
Persons: Stefania D'Amico, Thomas King, D'Amico, King, Henry Blodget Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Service, Consumer, Index, CPI Locations: Wall, Silicon
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