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Massive stimulus from central banks in the U.S., China and elsewhere is driving bubble-like stock returns and could head off a global recession, according to Bank of America. "It's the bubble dream," BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in his weekly "Flow Show" breakdown of where investors are putting their money. "Fed slashing, oil crashing, China inflating ... and if this China stimulus don't work then geopolitical risks [are] going to soar." But while some indicators do point to a slowing in global growth, the abundant forecasts for recession have eased. "Fed cutting into recession is negative for risk assets, but Fed cutting with no recession is positive and investors firmly of view Fed + China is sufficient policy easing to short-circuit recession risk," Hartnett wrote.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, People's Bank of China, Investors Locations: U.S, China
China plans to issue special sovereign bonds worth about 2 trillion yuan ($284.43 billion) this year as part of a fresh fiscal stimulus, said two sources with knowledge of the matter, adding to a string of measures to battle strong deflationary pressures and faltering economic growth. As part of the package, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) plans to issue 1 trillion yuan of special sovereign debt primarily to stimulate consumption amid growing concerns about a stuttering post-COVID economic recovery, said the sources. China also aims to raise another 1 trillion yuan via a separate special sovereign debt issuance and plans to use the proceeds to help local governments tackle their debt problems, the source added. Most of China's fiscal stimulus still goes into investment, but returns are dwindling and the spending has saddled local governments with $13 trillion in debt. China's State Council Information Office, which handles media queries on behalf of the government, and the MOF did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Organizations: Ministry of Finance, Information Office Locations: China
A somber atmosphere pervades Ukraine’s 33rd Independence Day Saturday, as the nation’s war against Russia’s aggression reaches a 30-month milestone. No fireworks, parades or concerts are planned and instead Ukrainians will mark the day with commemorations for civilians and soldiers killed in the war. “Independence is the silence we experience when we lose our people,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said to the nation. “913 days ago, Russia launched its war against us, partly through Sumy region,” Zelenskyy said. Ukraine quickly seized considerable Russian territory, including scores of small towns, and captured hundreds of Russian soldiers, moves that may influence the war’s trajectory.
Persons: there’s, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, ” Zelenskyy, , , Narendra Modi, Zelenskyy, Modi Organizations: Indian Locations: , Russia, Russia’s Kursk, Sumy, Russian, Ukraine’s Donetsk, Ukraine, Kursk, Pokrovsk, Kyiv
The Market Meltdown Intensifies
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Andrew Ross Sorkin | Ravi Mattu | Bernhard Warner | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
Stocks, cryptocurrencies, the dollar, oil — they’re all down sharply again on Monday on concerns that the U.S. economy is slowing faster than expected. It comes after a rough week for global markets. That has reignited criticisms that the Fed is moving too slowly to cut rates as economic conditions look shakier. Mega-cap tech stocks, which have driven much of the market’s gains this past year, were especially bruised: Nvidia was down 11 percent premarket, while Apple was off 7.5 percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to a one-year low.
Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, Bitcoin, Brent, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Nvidia, Apple, Berkshire, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, . Investors Locations: U.S, Japan
Donald Trump wants a weaker dollar in order to boost exports for US manufacturers. Other ways Trump could weaken the dollar would also risk raising US debt or inflation, Barclays said. AdvertisementDonald Trump's proposed policies run counter to one another, with his plan to increase trade tariffs complicating his intent to weaken the dollar, Ajay Rajadhyaksha of Barclays wrote in the Financial Times. Other options for weakening the dollar exist, but none come without consequences, the strategist noted. He cited alternative plans: raising US debt could help, at the cost of Treasury market volatility and more inflation pressure.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, , Donald Trump's, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Rajadhyaksha Organizations: Barclays, Service, Financial Times, Bloomberg, Republican, America, Trump, Federal Reserve, Treasury Locations: stagflation, Japan
China surprises with cuts to key rates to support weak economy
  + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
China surprised markets by lowering a key short-term policy rate and its benchmark lending rates on Monday, in efforts to boost growth in the world's second-largest economy. Minutes later, China cut benchmark lending rates by the same margin at the monthly fixing. Following the rate cuts, China's yuan dropped to a near two-week low of 7.2750 per dollar before paring some losses. He expects more rate reductions in China after the Fed enters its rate cut cycle. China's rate cuts are aimed at "strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments to better support the real economy," the PBOC said in a statement.
Persons: Larry Hu, Ju Wang, Zhang Zhiwei, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: People's Bank of, People's Bank of China, Macquarie, Greater China FX, BNP, Federal Reserve, Xinhua, Fed Locations: People's Bank of China, Beijing, China
And there was great, great sorrow. They’re going to be OK. They’re going to be doing very well. Now he’s going to get on the plane in a little while and he’s going to go back home to his wife. Great, great student at Yale. So many — just so many heroes, so many great, great people.
Persons: Dana, Bob, , Lee, you’ll, it’s, didn’t, Nobody, , I’m, Corey Comperatore, David Dutch, James Copenhaver, We’re, Corey, Helen ., David, James, Dan Newlin, Dan, Trump, , Aileen Cannon, I’ve, Don, Kimberly, Ivanka, Jared, Eric, Lara, Tiffany, Michael, Barron, he’s, “ Dana won’t, That’s Lee Greenwood, … Eric, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, They’ve, Jason, Jason Aldean, Vance, Usha, He’s, He’ll, MAGA, ” MAGA, I’ll, you’re, nobody’s, We’ve, Somebody’s, they’re, It’s, can’t, We’ll, don’t, “ I’m, we’ll, Biden, They’re, that’s, you’ve, I’d, gee, You’d, That’s what’s, Donald Trump, That’s, There’s, Tom Homan, Brandon Judd, They’ll, Obama, They’d, “ You’ve, we’re, we’ve, Hannibal Lecter, Dwight D, Eisenhower, Jocelyn Nungaray, Rachel Morin, Rachel, Laken Riley, horrifically, Viktor Orban, what’s, Bush, it’ll, Kim Jung Un, Sam Brown, Sam, You’ve, Abdul, Don’t, You’re, Ronald Reagan, America’s, Franklin Graham, Franklin, Billy Graham, he’d, soldiered Organizations: of Pennsylvania, Secret Service, Service, Democrat, Republican Party, Republican, Democrats, America, Yale, ISIS, Space Force, Energy, Apple, Trump, Republican Senate, White, Republicans, United Auto Workers, Social Security, Border Patrol, ICE, , Lambs, University of Georgia, , U.S, Senate, Washington, D.C, Yankee, Win Locations: America, United States, Butler Township, of, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Asia, Europe, Taiwan, Korea, Philippines, China, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Iran, Germany, Mexico, Nevada, United States of America, There’s, South America, Africa, Middle East, Venezuela, Caracas, El Salvador, Houston, Los Angeles, Maryland, Hungary, “ Russia, Georgia, Crimea, Syria, Iraq, North Korea, Afghanistan, Bagram, Cuba, Miami, U.S.A, Wisconsin , Wisconsin, Washington, Japan, Delaware, Valley Forge, Yorktown, Gettysburg, Midway
Jamaica can't tap into catastrophe-bond funds despite Hurricane Beryl's devastation. With climate change on the rise, cat bonds have grown into a hotter investment. But in this case, investors in the country's $150 million asset won't have to pay a dime, the outlet said. The structure of the cat bonds was such that they paid investors 7% above the US Treasury rate. Climate disasters are not always strong enough to trigger cat bond payouts, an expert told Business Insider in October.
Persons: , That's Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Investments, Treasury, World Bank, Swiss Re Locations: Jamaica, Switzerland
“What worries policymakers is the interest rate risk, which will rise once the dominant narrative shifts from deflation to reflation,” Hu from Macquarie said. If that happens, bond yields will rise as investors switch back into riskier stocks. The country’s “4,000 or so small and medium-sized banks” will be particularly vulnerable to the interest rate risk, he added. “The bubble formed by the rush of funds into the bond market is accumulating interest rate risks,” the Securities Times said in an editorial. Economic risksThe rapid decline in Chinese bond yields also poses significant risks to the economy.
Persons: , , Pan Gongsheng, SVB, Larry Hu, ” Hu, Macquarie, Hu, Zhang Jiqiang, Ken Cheung Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Silicon Valley Bank, People’s Bank of China, prudential, , Federal Reserve, Macquarie Group, Zheshang Securities, Securities Times, Japan’s Norinchukin Bank, Huatai Securities, Mizuho Securities Locations: Hong Kong, Silicon, United States, Shanghai, China, Beijing, SVB, outflows
China is about to start selling $138 billion in long-dated sovereign bonds, the finance ministry said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementChina will start selling bonds this week in a bid to boost its faltering economy. The finance ministry said it will issue 30-year sovereign bonds worth 40 billion yuan ($5.5 billion) on Friday in the first of several sales aimed at raising 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) overall. Beijing revealed its plans to start selling ultra-long sovereign bonds in March.
Persons: , Premier Li Qiang Organizations: Service, Premier, Business Locations: China, Beijing
Hong Kong CNN —Fitch downgraded its outlook on China’s credit rating on Tuesday, citing increasing risks to its finances as it faces economic challenges. Lowering its outlook from stable to negative does not automatically mean the ratings agency will downgrade China’s creditworthiness, but it increases the chances. Fitch has kept its rating on Chinese sovereign bonds at A+. Fitch believes the general government deficit will rise to 7.1% of gross domestic product in 2024 from 5.8% last year. In December, rival ratings agency Moody’s downgraded its outlook on China’s credit rating from stable to negative, citing risks related to “structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth” and ongoing troubles in its property sector.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN — Fitch, China’s, Fitch, , Moody’s Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Finance, Fitch Locations: China, Hong Kong
The two tied the knot in Las Vegas on Feb. 11, after Usher performed at the Super Bowl, according to a certificate of marriage obtained by CNN. I’m celebrating the places I’ve gone. I’m celebrating the inspirations. “I’m celebrating the dance. I’m celebrating the idea of this momentous moment for all the entertainers who played it before and how they managed to bring the world together.”
Persons: CNN — Usher, Jennifer Goicoechea, Usher, , Bo, Sire Castrello, Usher V, Naviyd Ely, Tameka Foster, , I’ll, I’ve, “ I’m Organizations: CNN, Super, , ” CNN, Locations: Las Vegas
Usher said his children gave him "notes" before his Super Bowl halftime performance on Sunday. AdvertisementUsher said his children have strong opinions about his highly-anticipated Super Bowl LVIII halftime performance. Usher's two eldest children — Usher "Cinco" Raymond V and Naviyd Ely — are with his ex-wife Tameka Foster. He later welcomed his two youngest children — Sovereign Bo and Sire Castrello — with his current girlfriend, Jennifer Goicoechea. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Usher, Jenn Goicoechea, , Usher's, — Usher, Cinco, Raymond V, Naviyd Ely —, Tameka Foster, Sovereign Bo, Castrello, Jennifer Goicoechea Organizations: Super, Service, Business
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewAlthough China looks dead-set on another year of economic distress, its prospects are brighter than they seem, a former advisor to the People's Bank of China wrote. For this reason, it helps that China's economy faces two-pronged deflation, with both consumer and producer price indices in the red, Yongding wrote. That means Beijing can inject considerable fiscal stimulus without concerns about inflation. According to Yongding, China's infrastructure is still behind in critical sectors, such as healthcare, education, and transportation.
Persons: , Yu Yongding, Yongding Organizations: Service, People's Bank of China, Business, Project Syndicate, Monetary Locations: China, Beijing
Islamabad, Pakistan CNN —Pakistan and Iran have both conducted strikes on each other’s territories in an unprecedented escalation of hostilities between the neighbors, at a time when tensions have risen sharply across the Middle East and beyond. Iran claimed it had “only targeted Iranian terrorists on the soil of Pakistan” and that no Pakistani nationals were targeted. In 2015, the group claimed responsibility for an attack that killed eight Iranian border guards, with militants reportedly crossing into Iran from Pakistan. Iran’s strikes on Tuesday sparked a diplomatic spat, with Pakistan recalling its ambassador from Iran and suspending all high-level visits from its neighbor. And after Pakistan’s strikes, Iran on Thursday demanded “an immediate explanation” from its neighbor, Tasmin reported.
Persons: Islam –, hideouts, Jaish al, , Karim Sadjadpour, Wesley Clark, , Jaish, CNN What’s, Tasmin, Matt Miller, Washington, “ We’ve, , Miller, ” Pakistan’s Organizations: Pakistan CNN —, Adl, Justice, Iran’s, Carnegie Endowment, International, US Army, CNN, Hamas, US, National Counterterrorism Center, US State Department, US State, Pakistan – Locations: Islamabad, Pakistan, Pakistan CNN — Pakistan, Iran, Balochistan, Sistan, Baluchestan, restive Baloch, Gaza, Here’s, Pakistan’s Balochistan, Iran’s, Iran’s Sistan, Baluchestan province, Islam, , United States, Iraq, Syria, Israel, Lebanon, Yemen, Red, NATO, Afghanistan, Tehran, Pakistan’s, Iranian, India, ” China
London CNN —World leaders are flocking to Davos this week to pontificate on the planet’s most pressing problems. Even in the absence of a new crisis, soaring debt servicing costs will constrain efforts to tackle climate change and care for aging populations. Mortgage rates and other borrowing costs soared as investors demanded much higher premiums for owning UK debt. Mounting debt and political brinksmanship have already taken their toll on America’s credit rating, which typically affects borrowing costs for the government, businesses and households. And that would increase the government’s borrowing costs.
Persons: worryingly, Michael Saunders, , Saunders, that’s, Liz Truss, Dave Ramsden, Fitch, Moody’s, Raghuram Rajan, “ It’s, ” Rajan, Anna Cooban Organizations: London CNN —, Bank, CNN, Oxford Economics, Bank of England, AAA, States ’, Reserve Bank of India, Labour Party, Treasury Department, Federal, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Davos, Kingdom, Argentina, States, United States, Switzerland
[1/2] A Chinese national flag flutters at the headquarters of a commercial bank on a financial street near the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, in central Beijing November 24, 2014. "The outlook change also reflects the increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth and the ongoing downsizing of the property sector," Moody's said. "Moody's concerns about China's economic growth prospects, fiscal sustainability and other aspects are unnecessary," the ministry said. STRUGGLING FOR TRACTIONMost analysts believe China's growth is on track to hit the government's target of around 5% this year, but that compares with a COVID-weakened 2022 and activity is highly uneven. Analysts widely agree that China's growth is downshifting from breakneck expansion in the past few decades.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Moody's, Ken Cheung, Pan Gongsheng, COVID, Goldman Sachs, Gnaneshwar Rajan, Kevin Yao, Tom Hogue, Kim Coghill Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Mizuho Bank, Economic Work Conference, Fitch, China's Finance Ministry, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Hong Kong, China, outflows, Bengaluru
Moody’s warns it may downgrade China
  + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Laura He | Diksha Madhok | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
The lowering of its outlook does not automatically mean the ratings agency will downgrade China’s creditworthiness, but it increases the chances. Analysts say the property downturn is likely to drag on, hobbling China’s growth prospects for years. Slower growth, weaker demographicsMoody’s expects China’s annual economic growth rate to slow to 4% in both 2024 and 2025, and average 3.8% a year from 2026 to 2030. “The affirmation of the A1 rating reflects China’s financial and institutional resources to manage the transition in an orderly fashion,” the agency said. “Its economy’s vast size and robust, albeit slowing, potential growth rate, support its high shock-absorption capacity.”China’s Finance Ministry said Tuesday it was “disappointed” with Moody’s decision to downgrade the country’s credit outlook.
Persons: Hong Kong / New Delhi CNN — Moody’s, China’s, Moody’s, , Hong, Seng, Anna Cooban Organizations: Hong Kong / New Delhi CNN, China’s Finance, CSI Locations: China, Hong Kong / New Delhi, China’s, , Shanghai, Shenzhen
Moody's though retained China's "A1" long-term rating on the country's sovereign bonds, while expecting China annual GDP growth to slow to 4% in 2024 and 2025 and average 3.8% from 2026 to 2030. Structural factors including weak demographics will drive a decline to 3.5% by 2030, it said. China credit default swaps (the cost of insuring against a government default) rose 4 basis points from Monday's closing level, according to Reuters data. Beijing disappointmentChina's Finance Ministry expressed its disappointment with Moody's downgrade decision. "Moody's concerns about China's economic growth prospects and fiscal sustainability are unnecessary," the ministry said in a statement Tuesday.
Persons: Javier Ghersi, Moody's Organizations: China's, Ministry Locations: China, Beijing
WASHINGTON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The White House said on Friday it was prepared to "pause" sanctions relief for OPEC member Venezuela in coming days unless there is further progress on the release of Venezuelan political prisoners and "wrongfully detained" Americans. Any “snapback” of partially lifted U.S. sanctions would mark a major shift from President Joe Biden's new approach toward Venezuela. In the most significant lifting of tough Trump-era sanctions, Washington issued a six-month general license authorizing U.S. transactions with Venezuela’s vital oil and gas sector and a second license authorizing operations of state gold mining company Minerven. Washington had vowed to reverse that sanctions relief unless the Venezuela's Socialist government took steps by the end of November to release political prisoners and three Americans it considers unlawfully jailed, and also lift public-office bans on opposition candidates. The Venezuelan government released five political prisoners in October but there have been no releases since.
Persons: Nicolas Maduro, John Kirby, Joe Biden's, Washington, , ” Kirby, , we're, Kirby, Maria Corina Machado, Matt Spetalnick, Steve Holland, Mayela Armas, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Venezuelan, White House, Trump, Socialist, Thomson Locations: Venezuela, Venezuelan, Maduro, Washington, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, Caracas
Yet labour markets are softening, the euro zone faces recession and China's property sector is in crisis. Here's what some closely-watched market indicators say about global recession risks:1/ AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM? Britain's economy avoided the start of a recession in the third quarter but still failed to grow. Economists broadly expect the global economy to slow next year but avoid a recession. If supply shocks resulting from the Israel-Hamas war become severe enough to push Brent crude to $150, a level it has never breached, a "mild and fleeting" global recession could result, Oxford Economics reckons.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Guy Miller, COVID, Zurich Insurance's Miller, Torsten Slok, Austria's, David Katimbo, We've, Brent, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Zurich Insurance, Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal Reserve, ECB, Apollo Global Management, P, Sweden's SBB, HK, Bank of England, Business insolvencies, EdenTree Investment Management, Oxford Economics reckons, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, China, Zurich, England, Wales, Europe, Israel
The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.4 in November from 49.5 in October, staying below the 50-point level demarcating contraction from expansion, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday. The new orders sub index contracted for a second consecutive month, while the new export orders component extended its decline for a ninth month. "Today's PMI reading will further raise expectations towards policy support," said Zhou Hao, economist at Guotai Junan International. "Fiscal policy will be under the spotlight and take centre stage over the coming year and will be closely monitored by the market." Factory PMI has contracted for seven out of the past eight months - rising above the 50-point mark only in September.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Zhou Hao, Joe Cash, Kim Coghill, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: cnsphoto, REUTERS, National Bureau, Statistics, Standard Chartered, PMI, Guotai, Thomson Locations: Zunyi, Guizhou province, China, BEIJING
The Biden administration reiterated that it has told the Venezuelan government it must, by the end of November, lay out steps for lifting election bans on opposition candidates and begin releasing Venezuelan political prisoners and "wrongfully detained" Americans, the spokesperson said. If the U.S. deems Maduro's actions insufficient, it was not immediately clear how extensively or quickly it would roll back sanctions relief. "We haven’t seen any progress yet," White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters earlier on Thursday when asked whether Maduro was meeting his commitments and if the U.S. was prepared to reimpose sanctions. The Venezuelan government may allow appeals from banned politicians to progress in court as a way to partially comply with U.S. demands, sources told Reuters this week. The Venezuelan government released five political prisoners in October but there have been no releases since.
Persons: Matt Spetalnick WASHINGTON, Nicolas Maduro, Joe Biden's, Biden, Antony Blinken, Maduro, November's, Jorge Rodriguez, John Kirby, Maria Corina Machado, Matt Spetalnick, Vivian Sequera, Chris Reese, Josie Kao Organizations: State Department, Venezuelan, The State Department, U.S, House Locations: U.S, Venezuela, Venezuelan, Washington, Caracas
"Sri Lanka has been informed of an agreement," the source, who did not want to be identified, said. The Sri Lanka president's office and the finance ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Japan co-chairs the official creditor committee, together with France and India. China is Sri Lanka's largest bilateral creditor and is an observer in the group, steering clear of joining the group as a formal member. The ADB's funds are part of a $350 million special policy-based loan that was approved in May to support Sri Lanka.
Persons: Nandalal Weerasinghe, Takafumi Kadono, Sudipto Ganguly, Jacqueline Wong, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reuters, Export, Import Bank of China, International Monetary Fund, Asian Development Bank, World Bank, ADB, Thomson Locations: COLOMBO, Sri Lanka, Japan, France, India, China, Sri Lanka's, Colombo, Sri
“High-quality, sustainable growth is far more important.”The country is moving away from manufacturing and real estate, its traditional drivers of growth, towards a newer economic model driven by consumption and services, he added. “I’m confident China will enjoy healthy and sustainable growth in 2024 and beyond.”His remarks come at a time when China is battling a protracted recession in its vast real estate sector. But the country’s real estate sector is still struggling with sluggish sales and falling home prices. “China’s real estate market is experiencing some adjustments,” he said. The regulators have also introduced a raft of measures to stabilise the real estate industry, including reducing mortgage rates for home buyers.
Persons: Pan Gongsheng, , Pan, “ I’m, , Stringer Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of, , Getty Locations: Hong Kong, “ China, People’s Bank of China, China, , Fuyang, China's, Anhui, AFP, Wuhan, Hubei
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