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☆ Get Ready for the Debate Like an Economics Pro
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Many of the issues likely to dominate Thursday’s televised debate between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump boil down to economics. Given that, it could be handy to go into the event with an understanding of where the economic data stand now and what the latest research says. Below is a rundown of some of today’s hot-button topics and the context you need to follow along like a pro. Inflation jumped during the pandemic and its aftermath for a few reasons. The government had pumped more than $5 trillion into the economy in response to Covid, first under Mr. Trump and then under Mr. Biden.

Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump Organizations: Mr

Coming into and through 2019, the economy was strong and the Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation, was low. For some, that seemed like a bad thing — economists worried that chronically low inflation could increase the risk of future economic stagnation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, a slightly delayed price measure that the Fed uses for its 2 percent inflation target, similarly fell. Within a few months, inflation began to pick up. Price jumps began to moderate even in service categories, which made economists hope that the deceleration might be the real deal.

Persons: —, Biden, Donald J, Trump, Price, ” Jerome H, Powell, ” Mr Organizations: Fed, Consumer, Federal Locations: Covid, Ukraine, blowups

☆ Recent High School Grads: Tell Us Why You Decided to Go to College or Not
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-24 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Polls, enrollment statistics, social media posts and education economists agree: We are seeing a growing skepticism of college among many American teenagers and their parents. That is why we want to hear from people who have graduated high school in the past several years or who are graduating in 2025. How are you thinking about your decision to attend college? I will read every response to this questionnaire as I’m researching my article, because I’m looking for a wide array of perspectives to inform my reporting. I will not use your contact information for anything but my reporting, and I won’t share it outside our newsroom.

☆ The Fed Holds Rates Steady and Predicts Just One Reduction This Year
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged at their June meeting on Wednesday and predicted that they will cut borrowing costs just once before the end of 2024, taking a cautious approach as they try to avoid declaring a premature victory over inflation. While the Fed had been expected to leave rates unchanged, its projections for how interest rates may evolve surprised many economists. When Fed officials last released quarterly economic estimates in March, they anticipated cutting interest rates three times this year. Investors had expected them to revise that outlook somewhat this time, in light of stubborn inflation early in 2024, but the shift to a single cut was more drastic. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, made clear in a postmeeting news conference that officials were taking a careful and conservative approach after months of bumpy inflation data.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors

☆ How to Read the Fed’s Projections Like a Pro
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to release both an interest-rate decision and a fresh set of economic projections on Wednesday, and Wall Street has been eagerly awaiting those revised estimates for clues on when interest rate cuts may begin. Officials are expected to leave rates unchanged in a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, where they have been since July 2023. The question now is when officials may begin to cut rates — and how much borrowing costs will actually move down. Investors will carefully parse the Fed’s fresh forecasts for hints. The dot plot, decodedWhen the central bank releases its Summary of Economic Projections each quarter, Fed watchers focus obsessively on one part in particular: the so-called dot plot.

Organizations: Federal Locations: Central

☆ What to Watch as the Fed Meets
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Central bankers have held rates at 5.3 percent since July after a rapid series of increases starting in early 2022. Policymakers came into 2024 expecting to lower rates several times, but inflation has proved surprisingly stubborn, delaying those reductions. At the conclusion of their two-day meeting on Wednesday, Fed officials will release economic projections for the first time since March, updating how many rate cuts they expect this year. Regardless, central bankers are likely to remain coy about an important question: Just when will they begin lowering borrowing costs? Given that, officials are likely to try to keep their options open.

Organizations: Federal, coy

☆ Inflation Data Is Coming Just Before the Fed Meeting. Will It Be a Game Changer?
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials insist that they are “data dependent” as they craft interest rate policy. There is little chance that the inflation data will change the Fed’s plans for this month. Officials are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, no matter what happens. Policymakers came into the year expecting to lower interest rates three times in 2024, but economists expect the Fed on Wednesday to change those projections to predict two cuts. Some see a small chance officials could project just one rate reduction.

Persons: — Organizations: Federal, Fed

☆ Fed Is in No Rush to Cut Rates as Economy Holds Up
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

They are not sure how quickly inflation will cool, how much the economy is likely to slow or just how long interest rates need to stay high in order to make sure that quick price increases are fully vanquished. That is the message central bankers are likely to send at their two-day meeting this week, which concludes on Wednesday. Officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged while avoiding any firm commitment about when they will cut them. Economists think that there is a small chance that officials could even predict just one cut this year. But whatever they forecast, officials are likely to avoid giving a clear signal of when rate reductions will begin.

Organizations: Federal, Fed, Economists

☆ Why Are People So Down About the Economy? Theories Abound.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. economy has been an enigma over the past few years. The job market is booming, and consumers are still spending, which is usually a sign of optimism. But if you ask Americans, many will tell you that they feel bad about the economy and are unhappy about President Biden’s economic record. And while a measure of sentiment produced by the Conference Board improved in May, the survey showed that expectations remained shaky. More than half of registered voters in six battleground states rated the economy as “poor” in a recent poll by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College.

Persons: Biden’s Organizations: University of Michigan, Conference Board, The New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, Siena College, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ What Trump 2.0 Could Mean for the Federal Reserve
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Former President Donald J. Trump relentlessly criticized the Federal Reserve and Jerome H. Powell, its chair, during his time in office. As he competes with President Biden for a second presidential term, that history has many on Wall Street wondering: What would a Trump victory mean for America’s central bank? The Trump campaign does not have detailed plans for the Fed yet, several people in its orbit said, but outside advisers have been more focused on the central bank and have been making suggestions — some minor, others extreme. Curbing the central bank’s ability to set interest rates without direct White House influence would be legally and politically tricky, and tinkering with the Fed so overtly could roil the very stock markets that Mr. Trump has frequently used as a yardstick for his success. But other aspects of Fed policy could end up squarely in Mr. Trump’s sights, both former administration officials and conservative policy thinkers have indicated.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Jerome H, Powell, Biden Organizations: Federal Reserve, White

☆ Fed Minutes Show Officials Were Wary About Inflation at May Meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials were wary about the recent lack of progress on inflation and remained willing to lift interest rates if conditions made it necessary as of their two-day meeting that ended on May 1. Minutes from the gathering, released Wednesday, showed that “many” officials expressed uncertainty about how much today’s interest-rate setting — 5.3 percent, up sharply from near zero in early 2022 — was weighing on the economy. Officials have been clear that they expect to leave interest rates unchanged for now, hoping that they are tapping the brakes on economic growth enough to quash inflation over time. And central bankers have repeatedly emphasized that they expect the next move on interest rates to be a reduction, not an increase. But policymakers have stopped short of ruling out a future rate increase, allowing that it’s a possibility if inflation proves surprisingly rapid.

Persons: — Organizations: Federal

☆ Rent Is Harder to Handle and Inflation Is a Burden, a Fed Financial Survey Finds
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

American households struggled to cover some day-to-day expenses in 2023, including rent, and many remained glum about inflation even as price increases slowed. That’s one of several takeaways from a new Federal Reserve report on the financial well-being of American households. The report suggested that American households remained in similar financial shape to 2022 — but its details also provided a split screen view of the U.S. economy. But that optimistic share is down from 78 percent in 2021, when households had just benefited from repeated pandemic stimulus checks. And signs of financial stress tied to higher prices lingered, and in some cases intensified, just under the report's surface.

Organizations: Federal Locations: U.S

☆ Live Updates: Inflation Cooled Slightly, Offering Some Relief for Consumers and the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +6 min

But economists cautioned that one month of encouraging data was far from enough to set those worries to rest. Both overall and core prices rose 0.3 percent from the previous month, down from 0.4 percent in February and March. The encouraging inflation report on Wednesday is unlikely to change those expectations. The report is also likely to be met with relief at the White House after what has been a rough recent run of inflation data for President Biden. Gasoline prices rose a seasonally adjusted 2.8 percent in April from March.

Persons: “, ”, Stephen Stanley, there’s, Sarah House, Biden, Jerome H, Powell, we’re, Blerina Uruci, Rowe Price, Jeanna Smialek, Jim Tankersley Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Santander, White, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed Locations: Wells Fargo, Amsterdam, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Inside the Rent Inflation Measure That Economics Nerds Love to Hate
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

There’s a three-letter abbreviation that economists have started pronouncing with the energy of a four-letter word: “O.E.R.”It stands for owner’s equivalent rent, and it has been used to measure American housing inflation since the 1980s. As its name suggests, it uses a combination of surveys and market data to estimate how much it would cost homeowners to rent the house they live in. But three years into America’s price pop, it has become almost cliché for economists to hate on the housing measure. The most intense haters insist that it is giving a false impression about where inflation stands. “It’s just not adding anything to our understanding of inflation,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics and a frequent adviser to the Biden administration.

Persons: There’s, “ It’s, ”, Mark Zandi, Biden, Zandi, grousing, “ Organizations: New York Times

☆ High Interest Rates Are Hitting Poorer Americans the Hardest
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Ben Casselman | Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

High interest rates haven’t crashed the financial system, set off a wave of bankruptcies or caused the recession that many economists feared. But for millions of low- and moderate-income families, high rates are taking a toll. More Americans are falling behind on payments on credit card and auto loans, even as many are taking on more debt than ever before. Monthly interest expenses have soared since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates two years ago. She is making progress, but high rates aren’t helping.

Persons: ”, Ora Dorsey, Ms, Dorsey Organizations: Federal Reserve, Army Locations: Clarksville, Tenn

☆ Fed Chair’s Confidence in Slowing Inflation Is ‘Not as High’ as Before
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, reiterated that policymakers were poised to hold interest rates steady at a high level as they waited for evidence that inflation is slowing further. Fed officials entered 2024 expecting to make interest rate cuts, having lifted borrowing costs sharply to a more than two-decade high of 5.3 percent between 2022 and the middle of last year. Speaking during a panel discussion in Amsterdam, Mr. Powell said that officials had been surprised by recent inflation readings. The Consumer Price Index inflation measure, which is set for release on Wednesday, came down rapidly in 2023 but has gotten stuck above 3 percent this year. The Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, is slightly cooler, but it, too, remains well above the Fed’s 2 percent inflation goal.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Mr Locations: Amsterdam

☆ Why Higher Fed Rates Are Not Totally Off the Table
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Investors do not expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again, and officials have made it clear that they see further increases as unlikely. But one important takeaway from recent Fed commentary is that unlikely and inconceivable are not the same thing. After the central bank held rates steady at 5.3 percent last week, the Fed’s chair, Jerome H. Powell, delivered a news conference where what he didn’t say mattered. Asked whether officials might raise interest rates again, he said he thought they probably would not — but he also avoided fully ruling out the possibility. And when asked, twice, whether he thought rates were high enough to bring inflation fully under control, he twice tiptoed around the question.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ The Fed Is Looking for a Job Market Cool-Down. It Just Got One.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials have been looking for further evidence that their interest rate increases over the past two years are weighing on the economy and job market, and Friday’s employment report roundly provided that signal. That moderation came as job gains slowed, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly and average weekly hours nudged down. The overall picture was one of a labor market that remains solid but is gradually slowing — exactly what officials at the Fed have been looking for. Central bankers generally embrace a strong job market: One of their two mandates from Congress is to foster maximum employment. But when inflation is rapid, like it has been since 2021, officials worry that a hot labor market could help to keep price gains elevated.

Organizations: Federal

☆ The Fed Just Got the Job Market Cooling It Has Been Waiting For
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials are keeping a close eye on the job market as they contemplate when and whether they can cut interest rates this year. That was both cooler than the previous reading and slightly cooler than the 4 percent economists had forecast. The overall picture was one of a labor market that remains solid but is gradually slowing — exactly what officials at the Fed have been looking for. Central bankers generally embrace a strong job market: One of their two mandates from Congress is to foster maximum employment. But when inflation is rapid, as it has been since 2021, officials worry that a hot labor market could help to keep price gains elevated.

Organizations: Federal

☆ The Fed Is Eyeing the Job Market, but It’s Difficult to Read
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

That leaves economists turning to other indicators to evaluate the strength of the job market and to forecast its forward momentum. Job openings have been coming down, the unemployment rate has ticked up recently (particularly for Black workers) and hiring expectations in business surveys have wobbled. The takeaway is that this seems to be a strong job market, but exactly how strong is hard to know. If job gains were to slow, would that be a sign that the economy was beginning to buckle, or just evidence that employers had finally sated their demand for new hires? If job gains were to stay strong, would that be a sign that things were overheating, or evidence that labor supply was still expanding?

☆ Fed Holds Rates Steady, Noting Lack of Progress on Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged and signaled that they are wary about how stubborn inflation is proving, paving the way for a longer period of high interest rates. The Fed held borrowing costs steady at 5.33 percent on Wednesday, leaving them at a more than two-decade high where they have been set since July. Central bankers reiterated that they need “greater confidence” that inflation is coming down before reducing rates. “Readings on inflation have come in above expectations,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at a news conference following the release of the central bank’s rate decision. After months of rapid cooling, inflation has proved surprisingly sticky in early 2024.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Here's what matters most to the Fed when it comes to policy decisions
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's what matters most to the Fed when it comes to policy decisionsJeanna Smialek, Federal Reserve and Economy Reporter at The New York Times, and Steve Odland, President and CEO of the Conference Board, discuss the upcoming Fed decision.

Persons: Jeanna Smialek, Steve Odland Organizations: Federal Reserve, The New York Times, Conference Board

☆ The Fed Tries to Steer Clear of Politics, But Election Year Is Making It Tough
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials are fiercely protective of their separation from politics, but the presidential election is putting the institution on a crash course with partisan wrangling. Fed officials set policy independently of the White House, meaning that while presidents can push for lower interest rates, they cannot force central bankers to cut borrowing costs. Incumbent politicians generally want low interest rates, which help to stoke economic growth by making borrowing cheap. But the Fed uses higher interest rates to keep inflation slow and steady — and if politicians forced to keep rates low and goose the economy all the time, it could allow those price increases to rocket out of control. Pressuring officials for lower rates was unlikely to help, administrations reasoned, and could actually backfire by prodding policymakers to keep rates higher for longer to prove that they were independent from the White House.

Organizations: Federal, White

☆ What to Watch as the Fed Makes Its Interest Rate Decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

On the one hand, officials could stick with their recent script: Their next policy move is likely to be an interest rate reduction, but incoming inflation and growth data will determine how soon reductions can begin and how extensive they will be. Policymakers believe that they need to use interest rates to tap the brakes on demand and bring inflation fully under control. The Fed will release its policy decision in a statement at 2 p.m. Eastern. But investors are likely to focus most intently on a news conference scheduled for 2:30 p.m. with Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair. Central bankers will not release quarterly economic projections at this gathering — the next set is scheduled for release after the Fed’s June 11-12 meeting.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal

☆ High Fed Rates Are Not Crushing Growth. Wealthier People Help Explain Why.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

More than two years after the Federal Reserve started lifting interest rates to restrain growth and weigh on inflation, businesses continue to hire, consumers continue to spend and policymakers are questioning why their increases haven’t had a more aggressive bite. The answer probably lies in part in a simple reality: High interest rates are not really pinching Americans who own assets like houses and stocks as much as many economists might have expected. Some people are feeling the squeeze of Fed policy. Credit card rates have skyrocketed, and rising delinquencies on auto loans suggest that people with lower incomes are struggling under their weight. Their house values are mostly holding up in spite of higher rates, stock indexes are hovering near record highs, and they can make meaningful interest on their savings for the first time in decades.

Persons: haven’t Organizations: Federal Reserve

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