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The public comment period for the Treasury Department's rule formalizing the 1% tax on buybacks closed Tuesday. That means some of the largest companies in America may soon be getting a tax bill. The goal seems to be to discourage corporate America from buying back stock and instead invest more in hiring people and making capital expenditures. "We have a good shot at beating that old record this year," Silverblatt from S & P Global tells me. Higher growth means companies will be more willing to invest in hiring more people and making capital expenditures.
Persons: Joe Biden, Howard Silverblatt, Silverblatt, Biden Organizations: Treasury, Apple, Microsoft, Exxon Mobil, Wells, Chevron, & $ Locations: America
President Biden wants to increase the taxes on those buybacks. Corporations prefer stock buybacks Corporate America has wide latitude on what it does with the cash flow it generates. Excess cash will typically fall into three buckets: buybacks, dividends and capital expenditures. Capital expenditures $597 b. "However, if economic growth momentum instead continues to build, investors may begin to increasingly reward companies that are investing for growth," Goldman said.
Persons: Biden, Goldman Sachs Jeffrey Yale Rubin, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Tesla, Meta, Biden's, Howard Silverblatt, Silverblatt Organizations: America, buybacks, Birinyi, P Global Locations: buybacks, America
Nvidia’s market value catapults to $2 trillion
  + stars: | 2024-02-23 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
New York CNN —Nvidia joined an exclusive club on Friday morning when its market value topped $2 trillion, just days after the chipmaker reported gangbusters earnings that once again swept Wall Street into an artificial intelligence-induced fervor. Nvidia’s latest achievement comes after the company earlier this month surpassed Amazon and Alphabet in market value and become the third-largest company on Wall Street behind Microsoft and Apple. The company hit a $1 trillion market cap in 2023, about 24 years after going public. Its meteoric growth over the past year came as artificial intelligence mania consumed Wall Street and helped power a ferocious bull market. Nvidia has emerged the poster child of AI on Wall Street, in part because it is crucial to the burgeoning AI space.
Persons: Howard Silverblatt, Dow, — CNN’s Clare Duffy Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Apple, Microsoft, Wall Street Locations: New York
Big names boosting dividends as of late include Walmart , which hiked its annual payment by 9% to 83 cents a share. Meta Platforms made headlines earlier this month when it announced it would issue its first-ever quarterly dividend – a payout of 50 cents per share. Government spending, including the CHIPS Act and the infrastructure legislation known as the Inflation Reduction Act , and the upcoming presidential election are also key considerations for companies, Silverblatt added. Dividend growth names, for instance, might offer you lower yields in the present, but you have the prospect of higher future payouts. "You need to know the fund, what they invest in and what the restrictions are," Silverblatt said.
Persons: Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Silverblatt, you've Organizations: Dow Jones, Big, Walmart, Railway, CSX, Government, Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Caterpillar, McDonald's, ExxonMobil
The Dow is adding Amazon, while removing Walgreens Boots Alliance. With the change, S & P Dow Jones Indices senior index analyst Howard Silverblatt said the Dow could rally all the way to 42,865. The effect on incoming and outgoing members of the Dow is less clear. According to past data from Ned Davis Research, stocks that leave the Dow have historically outperformed incoming members. Since 1972, outgoing members have averaged a 12-month gain of nearly 17.5%, while new members have averaged a 10% gain in their first year.
Persons: Dow, Howard Silverblatt, Silverblatt, Ned Davis Organizations: Dow Jones, Walgreens, Alliance, Walmart, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Dow, Ned Davis Research
New York CNN —The S&P 500 closed above the 5,000 level on Friday for the first time as bullish sentiment spreads across Wall Street and investors cheered fresh data showing progress on inflation. The S&P 500 briefly topped 5,000 for the first time intraday on Thursday. It took almost 41 years for the S&P 500 to reach its first major milestone of 1,000, which it hit on February 2, 1998, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. When the S&P 500 sets a new high in January, found Sam Stovall at CFRA Research, it reaches new highs in February about 75% of the time. The S&P 500 is up about 5.4% so far this year.
Persons: Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Sam Stovall, , Scott Wren Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, CFRA Research, Fed, Big Tech, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: New York, Wells Fargo
The Dow Jones Transportation Average, which tracks 20 US transportation stocks from railroads to airlines to delivery, has fallen 1.6% so far this year, underperforming the broader Dow industrials’ 2.2% gain. As that optimism dims, some investors worry that the decline in transportation stocks suggests rough times ahead for the economy. The transportation index tends to fall when the economy deteriorates, as demand for travel and goods wanes. Turmoil in the airline industry also likely contributed to the recent slide in transportation stocks. But net profit fell 14% to €4.9 billion ($5.3 billion) as its tax bill rose.
Persons: CH, , ”, Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery Scott, Russell, Howard Silverblatt, Dow, effusively, , Luschini, Jason Heller, “ I’m, Hanna Ziady, Sewing, Read, Tod Steward, He’s, It’s, Parija Kavilanz, Steward, Steward hasn’t, , haven’t, that’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones Transportation, Dow, CH Robinson Worldwide, United Parcel Service, Avis Budget Group, Alaska Air Group, Federal Reserve, Alaska Airlines Boeing, Max, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Dow Jones, Tesla, Coastal Wealth, Deutsche Bank, Super Bowl, CNN Locations: New York, Seattle
That's big enough to still rank 31st in the S & P 500. Meta's dividend is also big enough to have a small impact on the S & P yield, increasing the overall yield 0.74%, to 1.4609% from 1.4501%, according to S & P Global. And it's large enough to push the total payout for the S & P 500 to $600 billion for the first time. In paying a bonus, Meta joins the majority About 80% of S & P 500 companies pay a dividend. Since 1926, the S & P 500 has returned an annualized total return (price plus dividends) of 10.37% a year.
Persons: Meta, Morgan Stanley, Johnson, Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Silverblatt Organizations: Meta Platforms, ExxonMobil, Apple, JPMorgan, Verizon, P, Dow Jones, Microsoft, CNBC
Their huge and growing earnings, combined with a large number of shares outstanding, mean that the three companies exert a bigger influence on the S & P 500 earnings picture than any other. Fourth quarter earnings for the entire S & P 500 are expected to rise about 5% over the same period in 2022. For share-weighted earnings, the earnings (or earnings estimates) for each company are multiplied by the shares outstanding. What this means is that companies that are experiencing a rapid increase in their earnings can begin to exert an outsized influence on S & P 500 earnings. In a world where the S & P 500 is expected to see earnings growth of 10% this year, Nvidia's earnings growth is off the charts.
Persons: Technolgy, Nvidia —, John Butters, Jensen, Howard Silverblatt Organizations: Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, P Global Locations: FactSet
That comes as the rest of the “Magnificent Seven” — Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon, Apple and Alphabet — continue climbing higher. Excluding Tesla, the Magnificent Seven is projected to report an aggregate 53.7% fourth-quarter earnings growth from the prior year, according to FactSet. Companies in the S&P 500 index are expected to report a 10.5% earnings decline minus those six firms. The “Magnificent Seven” excluding Tesla has a combined market cap of roughly $12 trillion, according to Bespoke Investment Group data through Wednesday’s close. Her firm owns all of the Magnificent Seven stocks except for Tesla.
Persons: Tesla, Howard Silverblatt, Dow, “ You’re, , Saira Malik, Russell, , Shelby McFaddin, Wall, Joe Mazzola, Charles Schwab Organizations: New, New York CNN — Tech, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Companies, Big Tech, Dow Jones, Investors, Federal Reserve, Dow, Tesla, Investment, Federal, Locations: New York
Stock buybacks struggled to recover last year after taking a hit in 2022, even as corporate earnings began to rebound. Investors view buybacks as an indication that a company’s leadership believes its own shares are undervalued and are confident about its future performance. Buybacks also tend to push up share prices due to the added demand. ONEOK, a natural gas company, on Wednesday unveiled a $2 billion share repurchase program. The week’s total for initial claims landed far below economists’ projections for 205,000 initial claims, according to FactSet estimates.
Persons: Stock buybacks, Buybacks, buybacks, , , Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Sundar Pichai, Brian Fung, Pichai, ” Pichai, Read, , Alicia Wallace Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Deutsche Bank, Wednesday, Deutsche, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Dow Jones, Google, CNN, of Labor Locations: New York, Lennar, buybacks
Good news for long-term investors: corporate America paid a record amount in dividends last year, even as the S & P 500 approached a near-record high. A record year for dividends In 2023, companies in the S & P 500 paid out $588 billion in dividends, a new record. S & P 500 dividend yield history (average yield) Since 1936: 3.49% Last 10 years: 1.83% Last 5 years: 1.67% 2023: 1.5% Source: S & P Global Why has the dividend yield been going down? Second, with the exception of 2022, stock prices and particularly the S & P 500 have been on a tear. (% of index members who pay a dividend) S & P 500: 80.1% S & P MidCap: 65.8% S & P SmallCap: 57.8% Source: S & P Global In the S & P 500, 328 companies (65%) increased their dividends (dollar payout) last year.
Persons: Howard Silverblatt, buybacks, Silverblatt, Johnson Organizations: America, P, Global, Coterra Energy, Natural Resources, Diamondback Energy, Companies, Microsoft, ExxonMobil, JPMorgan, Verizon, Johnson, Apple, Federal, & $ Locations: buybacks, Devon, America
Another knock-on effect of higher rates: stock buybacks may be reduced. According to S & P Global, corporate America is sitting on roughly $2.5 trillion in cash. "Two years ago, corporations were getting almost nothing on their cash holdings," said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for S & P Dow Jones Indices. Buybacks decline A few weeks ago, S & P Global released its quarterly report on stock buybacks. The implication: in a higher interest rate environment, corporate America may be more inclined to hold cash as a hedge, which would imply fewer buybacks.
Persons: Howard Silverblatt, Dow, buybacks, Alec Young, MAPSignals, Young, Silverblatt, Cash Organizations: P Global, Dow Jones, Global, Technology, Cash, Cash Kings Apple, Microsoft, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Cisco, Intel, IBM, Nvidia, Apple Locations: America
The Arm IPO is here, but many ETFs will not be buyers
  + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
The Cupertino, Calif.-based company licenses its processorIPO and tech enthusiasts are excited about the Arm Holdings Plc initial pubic offering, and with good reason: it's the first big tech IPO in more than two years. However, some investors who would like to get immediate exposure to the Arm IPO through ETFs may be disappointed. However, this particular IPO highlights several difficulties that even large companies like Arm have in acquiring a broader ownership base through ETFs. The first problem is that Arm is not a U.S. company, it's British — which generally would exclude it from the S&P indexes. Potential ETF buyers: Nasdaq-100 ETF, IPO ETFsThere are some potential ETF buyers.
Persons: Matt Bartolini, Howard Silverblatt, Van Eck, Jan Van Eck, Todd Sohn, it's, Matt Kennedy, Nate Geraci, I'm Organizations: ARM Holdings, Arm Holdings, Nasdaq, Tech, ARM, P, SPDR Technology, SPDR, SPDR Americas Research, Street Global Advisors, Global, Renaissance, Van Eck Semiconductor, CNBC, Vanguard Total U.S, Renaissance Capital Locations: Cupertino, Calif, U.S, SPDR Americas
Nvidia shares, which had run up in the days leading up to its report, climbed more than 6% on Thursday but pared gains to end the day little changed. However, Nvidia's stock buyback - the fifth-biggest repurchase announcement among U.S.-based companies this year, according to EPFR - surprised some investors. Despite the staggering dollar amount, Nvidia's buyback amounted to only 2.1% of its nearly $1.2 trillion market value, or buyback yield, as of Wednesday. Indeed, some investors welcomed Nvidia's buyback decision. "It’s a show of confidence," said Francisco Bido, senior portfolio manager for F/M Investments' large cap focused fund, which holds Nvidia shares.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Lip, Daniel Morgan, Morgan, Refinitiv, Tom Plumb, Plumb, buyback, Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Daniel Klausner, Houlihan Lokey, Nvidia's, Francisco Bido, Lewis Krauskopf, Chibuike Oguh, Lance Tupper, Echo Wang, Stephen Nellis, Ira Iosebashvili, Matthew Lewis Organizations: NVIDIA, REUTERS, Nvidia, Companies, Wealth Management, Synovus, Plumb Funds, Arm Holdings, Dow Jones, Apple, Tech, Investments, Thomson Locations: New York, San Francisco
Nvidia shares, which had run up in the days leading up to its report, climbed more than 6% on Thursday but pared gains to end the day little changed. However, Nvidia's stock buyback - the fifth-biggest repurchase announcement among U.S.-based companies this year, according to EPFR - surprised some investors. Despite the staggering dollar amount, Nvidia's buyback amounted to only 2.1% of its nearly $1.2 trillion market value, or buyback yield, as of Wednesday. Indeed, some investors welcomed Nvidia's buyback decision. "It’s a show of confidence," said Francisco Bido, senior portfolio manager for F/M Investments' large cap focused fund, which holds Nvidia shares.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Lip, Daniel Morgan, Morgan, Refinitiv, Tom Plumb, Plumb, buyback, Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Daniel Klausner, Houlihan Lokey, Nvidia's, Francisco Bido, Lewis Krauskopf, Chibuike Oguh, Lance Tupper, Echo Wang, Stephen Nellis, Ira Iosebashvili, Matthew Lewis Organizations: NVIDIA, REUTERS, Nvidia, Companies, Wealth Management, Synovus, Plumb Funds, Arm Holdings, Dow Jones, Apple, Tech, Investments, Thomson Locations: New York, San Francisco
How expensive is the S & P 500? One common argument is the S & P 500 will have trouble advancing in the fall because the P/E ratio is too high. The benchmark is currently trading at 19.8 times forward earnings estimates (forward earnings encompasses earnings for the next four quarters: Q3 and Q4 of 2023, and Q1 and Q2 of 2024). But look below the surface, and much of the S & P is not overvalued. S & P 500 Current multiple: 19.8 Ex-Magnificent-7: 17.3 Ex-Technology: 17.8 Source: Refinitiv Biggest winners this year have multiples far above their norms No surprise here.
Persons: Howard Silverblatt, They're, Tajinder Dhillon, Dhillon, Silverblatt Organizations: P Global, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Communication Services, Services, Consumer Staples, Health, Real, Energy, Consumer
That has helped pressure many of the market’s popular dividend-paying stocks, which investors had turned to when rates were far lower. "The dividend-paying value side of the market is a pretty compelling place to go to maintain that return." Nevertheless, investors are seeking out dividend-paying stocks as a source of total return this year in anticipation that bond yields may falter while stocks continue to gain, Silverblatt said. “If you are going into dividend paying stocks now, you are taking that risk because you think there's a high probability that the market goes up," he said. Corso is searching for dividend-paying companies in cyclical sectors such as financials, where valuations are less expensive.
Persons: Jurrien Timmer, Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Silverblatt, hadn't, Cliff Corso, Corso, Bryant VanCronkhite, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Fidelity Investments, BoFA Global Research, Dow Jones Indices, Companies, Asset Management, Fed, Allspring Global Investments, Thomson
Building wealth might not be as difficult as you think, says self-made millionaire and author of "I Will Teach You to Be Rich" Ramit Sethi. Having spent 20 years of his career writing about money and psychology, Sethi knows what it takes to grow your money. "The top ways to grow your wealth are really simple, almost deceptively so," he says. "Listen, I have access to those investments, and I can tell you right now, they typically do not perform better than a simple S&P index fund." "The ordinary truth is that you can get great returns with a simple low-cost long-term index fund," Sethi says.
Persons: Ramit Sethi, Sethi, Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Madelyn Machado Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, Bloomberg Locations: Tampa , Florida
These moves will likely help propel the S & P 500 dividend payouts to another record in 2023. S & P 500 dividends: 2023 on track for another record year Q2 2023: $143.2 billion Q1 2023: $146.8 billion Q4 2022: $146.1 billion Q3 2022: $140.3 billion Q2 2022: $140.6 billion Source: S & P Global That averages out to a 1.7% dividend yield, and it follows a record year for both dividends and buybacks in 2022. Who pays dividends? The rest of 2023 could be tougher for dividends While dividends are growing, the pace of growth is slower than recent years. Dividends: Still growing but at a slower pace (Average increase in S & P 500 dividends, year over year) Q2 2023: up 1.9% Q1 2023: up 6.7% 2022: up 10.4% 2021: up 5.8% What's the issue? Why you should care about dividends Dividends are a critical part of the long-term profits associated with owning stocks.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Wells, Morgan Stanley —, Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Silverblatt Organizations: Citigroup, PNC, Bank of New York Mellon, JPMorgan, Dow Jones, Companies Locations: Wells Fargo
"There's reason to believe that the pessimism we saw at the start of the year is giving way to a stronger-than-expected market." Murray has increased his allocation to small-cap stocks, which tend to be among the most direct beneficiaries of economic growth. Other rebounding segments in June include the S&P 500 energy sector, which has gained 6% this month and S&P 500 industrials, up 5.7%. Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are firmer for the month to date, compared to only six for the year. Stronger-than-expected jobs growth and robust consumer spending have been among the data points that have bolstered investors' economic outlook.
Persons: Tim Murray, T Rowe Price's, Murray, Russell, Dow, Howard Silverblatt, Goldman Sachs, Saira Malik, Max Wasserman, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Energy, Reuters, Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Nvidia Corp, Tesla Inc, Dow Jones, Capital Economics, Miramar Capital, Starbucks Corp, Target Corp, Thomson Locations: U.S
For most of 2023, the stock market's gains had been all about seven companies. Market breadth, or the measure of advancers against losers, had been negative heading into June, as most of this year's rally was due to just seven companies. Prior to June, the index's positive performance was completely due to the performance of just seven companies: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, Tesla and Alphabet, counting both the Google parent's Class A and C shares. Of that group, some 150 are higher by at least 10% and 70 have gained at least 20%. On the downside, 108 stocks are off at least 10% and 32 have fallen at least 20%.
Persons: Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Silverblatt, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Organizations: Dow Jones Indices, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Google, Broadcom, Devices, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Locations: Warren
Behold Wall Street's new bull market, maybe
  + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Part of the uncertainty is that there is no set definition of a bull or bear market, or any sort of regulatory body that declares one, such as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does with recessions. The most commonly accepted definition is a 20% rise off a low for a bull market and a 20% decline from a high for a bear market, but even that is open to interpretation. "I just think it was a blip within a longer-term bear market." "Certainly it's a bull market in big-cap technology. I wouldn't call it a bull market in a broad market sense, because there are only certain stocks that are really in what we would call bull market territory, and it's just not a broad enough move to call it a sustainable bull market," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist Ingalls & Snyder in New York.
Persons: Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Silverblatt, Sam Stovall, Stovall, Dan Suzuki, Richard Bernstein, Suzuki, it's, Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls, Snyder, Ned Davis, Chuck Mikolajczak, Noel Randewich, Lewis Organizations: YORK, National Bureau of Economic Research, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Dow Jones, Richard, Richard Bernstein Advisors, Nvidia, Ned Davis Research, Thomson Locations: New York
A record $146.8 billion was paid out to investors in the S & P 500 in the first quarter, about 7% higher than the first quarter of last year. S & P 500 dividends: Another record payout Q1 2023: $146.8 b. Q4 2022: $146.1 b. Q1 2022: $137.6 b. Dividends: still growing but at a slower pace (average increase in dividends) Q1 2023: 9.5% 2022: 11.8% 2021 11.8% What's the problem? Why you should care about dividends Last year's big decline in the price of S & P stocks re-focused investor interest in dividends. Total return S & P 500, 1926-2022 Avg.
Through recessions and economic booms, over decades of market volatility, only eight companies in the S & P 500 have hiked their annual dividends year-in and year-out for at least 60 years. It pays an annual dividend of $1.84 per share, and currently has a dividend yield of 3.07%, while the S & P 500's average dividend yield is 1.65%. Manufacturing company Stanley Black & Decker and food and beverage giant PepsiCo have raised their annual dividends for more than 50 years. ExxonMobil and Chevron have hiked their annual dividends for 40 and 36 years, respectively. Based on the current dividend rate, with no additional increases or decreases, Silverblatt expects cash payments for 2023 to increase 3.9% over 2022.
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