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Among likely voters, Biden is trailing Donald Trump by one point in Wisconsin and three points in Pennsylvania. Still, Biden is losing to Trump. Now he’s behind in those states by six points, nine points and 13 points in the latest Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll. Have those states turned red? The electorate hasn’t turned on Democrats; a crucial group of voters has turned on Biden.
Persons: It’s, Joe Biden’s, Biden, Donald Trump, Biden didn’t, Trump, hasn’t, “ Donald Trump, , , I’ll Organizations: Trump, Philadelphia Inquirer, Arizona and, Arizona and Nevada Senate Locations: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Siena, Arizona and Nevada
Senate Democrats (including independents who caucus with them) hold 23 seats up for election this year; Republicans hold 11. Positive signs for DemocratsBut is the race for the Senate really over if Republicans just win West Virginia? Democratic Senate candidates seem to be at least tied or ahead in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Of course, Democratic Senate candidates outrunning the top of the ticket is nothing new. For Democrats to have any chance of holding the Senate, Republicans would have to lose all these Senate races.
Persons: we’ve, Donald Trump, Trump, Democratic Sen, Joe Manchin, Simone Pathe, it’s, we’re, Joe Biden, Biden, Sens, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Tammy Baldwin, Kari Lake, Lake, Nevada’s, Missouri’s Todd Akin, Mehmet Oz, Mark Kelly, Larry Hogan, I’m, Organizations: CNN, White, Senate, Republicans, Democratic, Republican, Republican Senate, Democrats, Florida, GOP, West Virginia, New York Times, Siena College, Biden Locations: nonjudicial, West Virginia, Texas, West, Arizona , Michigan, Montana , Nevada , Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Senate, Maine, Arizona , Nevada , Montana and Ohio, Montana, Ohio, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Maryland –
This week on “Matter of Opinion,” the hosts debate what the latest Times/Siena poll reveals about Joe Biden’s weaknesses and mull over the question of whether Vice President Kamala Harris is one of them. Plus, Carlos on some advice that’s gold, Jerry, gold. (A full transcript of this audio essay will be available within 24 hours of publication in the audio player above.)
Persons: Joe, Kamala Harris, Carlos, Jerry Locations: Siena
The Good News for Biden in Our Battleground Polls
  + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( Jess Bidgood | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
It’s the weekend! Tonight, we’re looking at a bright spot for Biden in our battleground polls — and, inspired by a certain Supreme Court justice, we want to hear your stories of political spats with your neighbors. A series of polls of battleground states released this week was full of doom and gloom for President Biden. He is trailing Donald Trump in five key states he won in 2020, with Nevada and Georgia looking all but out of reach. Eleven percent of the voters in six battleground states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan — said that abortion was the most important issue in deciding their vote, in the polls by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer.
Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, Roe, Wade, Michigan —, It’s Organizations: Biden, The New York Times, Siena College, The Philadelphia Inquirer Locations: Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona , Nevada, Michigan
Where each candidate has more donors orfewer donors compared with 2020, by county Biden Biden Trump Trump The New York TimesAcross most of the country, Mr. Trump has fewer donors than he did at the same time in 2020, while Mr. Biden has more. As of the end of March, Mr. Biden had 1.1 million unique individual donors, compared with one million for Mr. Trump. In Delaware, Mr. Biden has roughly twice as many donors as Mr. Trump, an analysis of contributions by ZIP codes shows. Arizona Where each candidate has more donors orfewer donors compared with 2020, by ZIP code Biden Trump The New York TimesIn Arizona, which is a battleground state in 2024, Mr. Biden has picked up donors. In North Carolina, a battleground state, Mr. Biden has gained donors relative to Mr. Trump since 2020.
Persons: Biden, Trump, Donald J, Biden's, Trump's, Mr, Bernie Sanders, Nikki Haley Organizations: Trump, Biden Biden Trump Trump The New York Times, Biden, Mr, New York Times, Federal, Commission, The Times, Siena College, The Philadelphia Inquirer, Democratic, Republican, ZIP, Biden Trump The New York Times, Republican Party . Arizona, Biden Trump The New York, Democrats, Biden Trump U.S, New York Locations: Vermont, Delaware, New York, New York City, Manhattan, Long, Arizona, Flagstaff, Tucson, Phoenix, Scottsdale, Nevada, Las Vegas, Michigan, Biden Trump The New York Times In Michigan, Ann Arbor, Dearborn, Detroit, Grand Rapids, Siena, North Carolina, South Carolina, Pa
President Biden’s economic policies have helped spur billions of dollars in new investments in Arizona and Georgia, two crucial battleground states in the 2024 election. Yet so far, Mr. Biden’s policies appear to have done little to lift his support in either region. Arizona and Georgia have been major beneficiaries of the Biden administration’s key policy initiatives — the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act and the bipartisan infrastructure law. Georgia has been a big beneficiary of Mr. Biden’s clean energy and infrastructure laws. Still, former President Donald J. Trump has maintained a significant lead over Mr. Biden in both states, according to new polls by The New York Times and Siena College.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump Organizations: Semiconductor Industry Association . Georgia, Mr, The New York Times, Siena College Locations: Arizona, Georgia
Mr. Biden recently indicated he would debate Mr. Trump, but had until now declined to give any firm commitment or specific details. In a video announcing his offer, Mr. Biden taunted Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden in most polls of battleground states, including the recent surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer. Significantly more voters trust Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden to handle the economy. Mr. Biden, exasperated, famously said to Mr. Trump, “Will you shut up, man?
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump, , Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Mr, Biden’s, Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, O’Malley Dillon, , Trump’s, “ Let’s, Donald, Ms, Mark Makela, “ Will, Susie Wiles, Chris LaCivita, Reagan, , There’s, Kennedy, Wiles, LaCivita, George W, Bush’s, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Richard Perry, Romney, Hillary Clinton’s, Bill Clinton, Reid J, Epstein Organizations: The New York Times, Biden, Commission, Mr, Trump, , , Republican National Convention, Republican National Committee, Siena College, The Philadelphia Inquirer, White House, CNN, Electoral College —, Republican, Democratic, ” Networks, CBS News, ABC News, Telemundo Locations: Washington, Trump’s Manhattan, York, Milwaukee, America
Nearly one in five voters in battleground states says that President Biden is responsible for ending the constitutional right to abortion, a new poll found, despite the fact that he supports abortion rights and that his opponent Donald J. Trump appointed three Supreme Court justices who made it possible to overturn Roe v. Wade. Trump supporters and voters with less education were most likely to attribute responsibility for abortion bans to Mr. Biden, but the misperception existed across demographic groups. Twelve percent of Democrats hold Mr. Biden responsible, according to New York Times/Siena College polls in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin and a Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll in Pennsylvania. “I think the buck stops with him, so he had the ability to fight that, and that’s not what I’m hearing that he did,” said Terri Yonemura, 62, an abortion rights supporter in Las Vegas who said she would not vote for Mr. Trump, but is unsure about Mr. Biden, so may not vote at all.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump, Roe, Mr, , that’s, , Terri Yonemura Organizations: Wade, New York Times, Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, Mr Locations: Siena, Arizona , Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Las Vegas
“This case is going to turn in large part on the cross-examination of Mr. Cohen. Cohen said that Trump told him: “Women are going to hate me. “This was all about the campaign.” Cohen also testified that Trump said he would not be on the market for long, implying he could get another wife quickly. Throughout his testimony, Cohen said he always kept Trump up to speed with his activities. “Everything required Mr. Trump’s sign-off,” he said, noting the Daniels payment was no exception.
Persons: CNN — “, Michael Cohen, Donald Trump’s, Cohen, Trump, ” Ryan Goodman, CNN’s Erin Burnett, ” Trump, Bernarda Villalona, , Donald Trump, , “ Michael Cohen, David Schoen, ” Schoen, CNN’s Wolf, quagmire, Joe Biden, Judge Juan Merchan, Cohen –, , Ohio Sen, J.D, Vance, Alabama Sen, Tommy Tuberville, mulls, “ What’s, Stormy Daniels, Susan Hoffinger, Hoffinger, Daniels, Daniels ’, , ” Cohen, smirked, Trump’s, , , reimbursements Cohen, Allen Weisselberg Organizations: CNN, Prosecutors, Republican, NYU Law, Trump, New, New York Times, Judge, Alabama, GOP, Ohio Republican, Trump Organization, White House Locations: New York, Siena, York, Ohio
RFK Jr.'s candidacy is propelled in large part by people who just don't like their other options. 44% of his supporters are mostly just voting against Trump and Biden, polling shows. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementIn case it wasn't clear enough: many of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s supporters are mostly just dissatisfied with their other choices. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: they're, , Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Joe Biden, Donald Trump Organizations: RFK Jr, Trump, Biden, Service, The New York Times, Siena College, Philadelphia Inquirer, Business
President Biden has argued for years that he is the politician to restore normalcy to American politics. But for almost as long, a subset of American voters, frustrated by everything from the economy to immigration policy, have argued that they do not want his version of it. And few believed that Mr. Biden would make even minor changes that would be good for the country. The view from the Biden campaign is this: There is still time to sell Mr. Biden’s economic and policy accomplishments, and officials are working to connect with the voters who will decide the election. There is still time to draw a character contrast between Mr. Biden and his predecessor and challenger, Donald J. Trump.
Persons: Biden, Mr, Donald J, Trump Organizations: New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, Siena College Locations: Washington
Donald J. Trump leads President Biden in five crucial battleground states, a new set of polls shows, as a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition. The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin. Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Mr. Biden won all six of those states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win re-election, provided he won everywhere else he did four years ago.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Biden Organizations: Democratic, The New York Times, Siena College, The Philadelphia Inquirer, Mr Locations: Gaza, Michigan, Arizona , Nevada , Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania , Michigan
Democratic candidates for the Senate in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin lead their Republican rivals and are running well ahead of President Biden in key states where he continues to struggle, according to polls by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College. The battleground surveys of registered voters indicate that the president’s difficulties against former President Donald J. Trump may not be enough to sink other Democrats, especially Senate incumbents who are facing less-well-known Republicans. Ticket-splitters are not abundant — about 10 percent of Trump voters back the Democratic candidate for Senate in the four states, while about 5 percent of Biden supporters back the Republican. But those voters are enough to give Democrats a chance at holding the Senate, where they currently hold a one-seat majority. To maintain control, the Democrats would have to sweep every competitive Senate seat and win the White House.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump Organizations: Senate, Republican, The New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, Siena College, Trump voters, Democratic, White Locations: Arizona , Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Thinking back to when Donald Trump was president, what one thing do you remember most about Donald Trump’s presidency? Like past presidents, Mr. Trump has enjoyed a higher approval rating of his time in office in retrospect. Some of them may have spoken about Mr. Trump generally because of the multitude of controversies during his time in office, Mr. Sides said. A handful of voters in the survey, mostly Trump supporters, looked back on the Trump years as a time of peace. In the battle over memories, the Biden campaign will be trying to remind voters of some older ones that reflect poorly on Mr. Trump.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, , Donald J, Trump’s, Jan, , John Sides, Donald Trump, Here’s, Biden, ” Biden, Seth Masket, Mr, Masket, don’t, Biden’s, ” “ Jan, “ Trump, Covid, North Korea ”, , Kim Jong, ” Mr Organizations: New York Times, Siena College, Trump, Vanderbilt, Voters, Biden, University of Denver, North Korea, North Korean Locations: Siena, America, Times, Mexico, North Korea, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, Korea
The latest employment report on Friday showing a lower-than-forecast 175,000 new jobs across the country in April became immediate fodder for the 2024 presidential race. The monthly jobs report is likely to be quickly forgotten in the campaign. But the biggest impact could be on the Federal Reserve, which sets interest rates in the country. Mr. Trump himself appears to be closely tracking the rate decisions of the Federal Reserve. At the Manhattan courthouse on Thursday, Mr. Trump said, “Interest rates are obviously not going to be reduced prior to the election because inflation is roaring back.”
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Biden, Biden’s, Jerome H, Powell, Organizations: White, Federal Reserve, The New York Times, Siena College, Mr Locations: New York, Manhattan
Maddy Lane, a Gen Z TikToker, shared what it's like in a recent video, showing the detritus of her latest haul all over her bed. A survey of 1,000 people from January by the digital analytics platform Quantum Metric found that 64% of Gen Z respondents were buying more than they did last year. Contradictory to Gen Z beliefsCheap clothing hauls do not sit well with the much-discussed Gen Z passion for environmentalism. AdvertisementGaby Mendes, a Zoomer and founder of Talk Twenties, a media and events company for Gen Z, told BI she tries to avoid fast fashion but has her lapses. Gen Z was dubbed the "Depop generation" by Vogue Business, and makes up 90% of the app's user base.
Persons: , Maddy Lane, Lane, Zers, ThredUp, Gen, TikTok, pang, Melanie Parncutt, Parncutt, Gaby Mendes, Gen Z, JADE GAO, Siena Barry, Taylor, There's Organizations: Service, Business, Bryant University, Otter Public Relations, Vogue Business, Barry Locations: cardigan
Trump’s success might make you believe that he has turned the conventional wisdom on its head – that somehow, his legal troubles are helping him politically. There isn’t much of a sign that Trump’s legal woes are helping him among the wider electorate, even if they aren’t hurting him necessarily. Consider Trump’s polling against President Joe Biden. You might think that Trump would be gaining against Biden, if the cases against Trump were helping him. It’s not clear whether the money Trump’s raising because of appeals to his base during his legal troubles is offsetting the amount his committees are spending.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Biden, pollster, pollsters, don’t, Trump’s, isn’t, he’s, I’m Organizations: CNN, Republican, Biden, Trump, Marist College, Reuters, New York Times, Siena College, NBC, Quinnipiac University, Marquette University Law School, Times, Financial Times Locations: York, Quinnipiac, New York
Ten years ago this week, The New York Times introduced the Upshot, a section devoted to explaining “politics, policy and everyday life.” That’s a wide scope, by design. As a result, more than 5,000 articles later, the Upshot has been many things to many readers. To mark our 10th birthday, we’ve collected 100 stories that embody the Upshot. WordleBot Eden Weingart/The New York Times When Wordle first became popular, several people on the internet claimed, plausibly, that they had come up with the “best” opening word. Force of Ship Impact Was on the Scale of a Rocket Launch Erin Schaff/The New York Times We think of the Upshot as a place where back-of-the-envelope calculations can be both helpful and welcome.
Persons: , Nate Cohn’s, we’ve, Kevin Quealy, John Branch, John, Patrick Thomas, tut, Trump, pollsters, Obamacare, Leif Parsons, We’re, Jason Henry, Tony Luong, Jordan, , Ruth Fremson, Laurel, ’ Rodrigo Corral, Alex Welsh, Paul Romer, Tim Enthoven, Barack Obama, epidemiologists, It’s, you’re, WordleBot Eden, Wordle, Lila Barth, McCabe, Tom Brady, ChatGPT, , Erin Schaff Organizations: New York Times, Facebook, Yankees, Red, State Newspaper, ESPN, The Athletic, The Times, You’re, Voters, Trump, Mr, Times, Siena College, Walmart, The New York Times, Jordan Siemens, Health, New, Nike, Democratic, Twitter, America, Iowa, Iowa Democratic, Cancer, Hit, Biden, Insurance, Roe America, Disorders, Republican, Republican Party of, U.S, Budget, NASA, National, Traffic, Administration, Yorkers, Force Locations: It’s, Red Sox, State, America, Dakota, Ireland, Chipotle, Japan, U.S, United States, Siena, New Pennsylvania, District, Iowa, Covid, York City, New York, Pennsylvania, Roe, Tonga, Arizona, York, Holland
Trump Respects Women, Most Men Say
  + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( Jess Bidgood | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
This month, The New York Times/Siena College poll asked voters how much they think former President Trump respects women: a lot, some, not much or not at all? You’ll never guess what happened next! A majority of men — 54 percent — said that Trump respects women either “a lot” or “some.” Just 31 percent of women saw things that way. But that disparity is important to understand in an election that already seems primed to turn on the question of just how big the gender gap between Trump, who draws more support from men, and President Biden, who leads among women, is going to be. Our poll found that Trump had a 20-percentage-point lead among men, while Biden had a 16-percentage-point lead among women.
Persons: Trump, , , Biden Organizations: New York Times, Siena College, Trump
More voters trust Donald Trump than President Joe Biden to deal with inflation and the cost of living, their top concerns for the U.S., according to the latest NBC News poll. The poll of 1,000 registered voters nationwide found that 52% of respondents said Trump would better handle inflation and the cost of living, while 30% said the same of Biden. For example, while Trump lambasts Biden's economy, the president has doubled down on the claim that the U.S. "has the best economy in the world." But voters' rosy memory of the Trump economy has been a consistent thread in early polling and continues to weigh on Biden's momentum. Despite Biden's efforts to refocus the conversation on other economic issues, inflation appears to remain an unavoidable barrier to winning over the public's trust.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Biden, Herbert Hoover, Donald Organizations: NBC, New York Times, Siena College Locations: Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh, China, Scranton , Pennsylvania, U.S
But on Monday, his diminished reality as a criminal defendant will become clear in humbling fashion during opening statements in his first criminal trial. The process, known as a Sandoval hearing, offered the ex-president a glimpse of personal and unflattering revelations that the trial could dredge up. The political case against the prosecutions was laid out by South Dakota Gov. But Noem rehearsed a political argument that Trump and his associates will be seeking to land as the trial goes ahead. But the deeply consequential political and personal stakes for the former president will become even clearer when the first trial begins for real on Monday.
Persons: Donald Trump, he’s, Trump, Joe Biden, , victimhood, He’s, , ” Trump, president’s, haggled, Sandoval, Stacey Schneider, Jean Carroll, ” Schneider, it’s, Stormy Daniels, Michael Cohen, David Pecker, Pecker, Joshua Steinglass, , Juan Merchan, Attorney Alvin Bragg, Bragg, Biden, There’s, Kristi Noem, ” Noem, CNN’s Dana, Noem, Cohen Organizations: CNN, White, Republican, Trump, American Media Inc, National Enquirer, Prosecutors, Manhattan, Attorney, Democratic, Mar, South Dakota Gov, New York Times Locations: Manhattan, North Carolina, New York, United States, “ State, Siena, Dakota
Was Trump Benefiting From Being Out of the News?
  + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
Donald J. Trump appears to be a stronger candidate than he was four years ago, polling suggests, and not just because a notable number of voters look back on his presidency as a time of relative peace and prosperity. It’s also because his political liabilities, like his penchant to offend and his legal woes, don’t dominate the news the way they once did. In the last New York Times/Siena College poll, only 38 percent of voters said they’d been offended by Mr. Trump “recently,” even as more than 70 percent said they had been offended by him at some point. We didn’t ask a question like this back in 2016 or 2020 for comparison (unfortunately), but my subjective thumb-in-the-wind gauge says that, if we had, more voters would have said yes to the “recently offended” question. Mr. Trump’s most outrageous comments just don’t dominate the news cycle the way they did four to eight years ago.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, It’s, they’d Organizations: New York Times, Siena College
President Biden is campaigning on four more years of yummy stew. A lot of voters are saying, “I like you, but I don’t like your stew.”The performance of the U.S. economy should be a winning issue for Biden. Economic growth is so strong that the Federal Reserve is putting off plans to lower interest rates. Biden can’t credibly promise to turn things around — to make things much better in the coming term — because they’re already good by standard measures. It’s just that many voters don’t see it that way.
Persons: Biden, , Biden can’t credibly, they’re, Donald Trump’s, Organizations: Federal Reserve, The New York Times, Siena College Locations: U.S
Polling for the 2024 election has shown Biden losing ground with younger voters to Trump. Younger voters are historically less likely to vote than older-aged ones. AdvertisementIn a presidential race expected to be as tight as ever, polling increasingly shows younger voters shifting toward former President Donald Trump. Still, his campaign can rest somewhat easier knowing younger voters have historically been some of the least likely to make it to the polls. AdvertisementAppealing to younger voters in college towns and campuses may also take a mental adjustment from some conservative influencers and leaders, like Turning Point USA founder and executive director Charlie Kirk.
Persons: Biden, Gen, , Donald Trump, Joe Trump, Millenials, influencers, Charlie Kirk Organizations: Trump, Biden, Service, Republican Party, Marist Poll, New York Times, Siena, Marist, Siena College, University of Florida, GOP Locations: Idaho, Texas
Our Electoral College maps below lay out the best scenarios for him and Mr. Trump. In a Wall Street Journal battleground poll taken in March, Mr. Biden had only 37 percent job approval in the state. … orand The second and harder path for Mr. Trump would be if he carried only one Southern swing state – most likely North Carolina. By carrying these states, Mr. Biden has several paths to 270, but the first three scenarios are his most viable. Scenario 4 They involve Mr. Biden winning Georgia and Arizona … They involve Mr. Biden winningand Scenario 5 … or Michigan and Georgia.
Persons: Biden, Akshita Chandra, Yuji Sakai, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden’s, Court’s, … orand, Hamas’s, Mr, , , Bill Clinton’s, Doug Sosnik, Bill Clinton Organizations: Presidency, Trump, New York Times, Electoral, Wisconsin –, Sun, Siena, Black, The Arizona, Michigan, Mr, North Carolina, Republicans, Georgia, Democrats, Congressional District, Michigan …, Wisconsin, Democratic, House Locations: Arizona, – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Mich, Pa, Nev, N.C, Ariz . Ga, Wis, Ariz ., Michigan, Arizona , Michigan, Arizona , Nevada, Israel, Gaza, Nebraska, Minnesota, United States, Michigan , Pennsylvania
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