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Lumber prices are down 24% from their mid-March peak amid subdued home-building activity. The combination of oversupply and falling demand for lumber are driving prices down, say industry experts. AdvertisementLumber prices have plunged this year as the peak home-building season falls flat amid subdued demand. Putting added pressure on lumber prices is that the commodity is experiencing a period of oversupply. And falling demand combined with rising supply can be a powerful dynamic that puts downward pressure on prices.
Persons: , Josh Goodman, Goodman, Kyle Little, Little Organizations: Service, Sherwood Lumber, Product
Lumber prices continued their downward trend on Thursday, falling 4% toward multi-year lows. The decline in lumber came amid an unexpected decline in March pending home sales, and as the industry seeks a balance in supply and demand. "The broad industry is still challenged with getting supply in check to meet the new demand curve," Sherwood Lumber told Insider. But according to Sherwood Lumber president Andy Goodman, the lumber industry is still searching for a balance in supply and demand. Since then, lumber prices have cratered 78%, in part driven by a surge in mortgage rates to above 6%.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSherwood Lumber: Any time there's an indication of hope on the interest rate cycle, we see a surge in demand and uptick in lumber pricesKyle Little, COO of Sherwood Lumber, discusses the steep fall in lumber prices over the past year, and how that's playing through to the housing market and home improvement retailers.
The essential building commodity has been rocked by soaring mortgage rates and a slowing housing market. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate inched closer to 7%, according to Mortgage News Daily. "Although U.S. housing prices remain substantially above their year-ago levels, July's report reflects a forceful deceleration," S&P DJI managing director Craig Lazzara said. "The lumber market continues to be in a state of overall malaise as buyers anticipate lower overall demand going forward. But until that happens, it's not difficult to see lumber prices trading in the pre-pandemic range of $200-$600.
Lumber prices extended their 2-day decline to 10% after the Fed hiked interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday. The aggressive interest rate hike from the Fed helped solidify the recent surge in mortgage rates to above 6%. "The lumber market continues to be in a state of overall malaise as buyers anticipate lower overall demand going forward," Sherwood Lumber told Insider. The surge in mortgage rates have taken a significant bite out of home sales, which has in-turn led to price cuts and has dented homebuilder sentiment. "The lumber market continues to be in a state of overall malaise as buyers anticipate lower overall demand going forward.
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