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☆ Analysis: Traders bet ECB will be first big central bank to cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. With investors confident that big central banks are likely done raising rates, focus has switched to when rate cuts will start. Traders now price in over an 80% chance of a 25 basis-points (bps) ECB cut by April, which had been fully priced for July last week. Piet Christiansen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, said the expectations for ECB rate cuts now reflected a "doom and gloom" scenario. He added the ECB would need to cut rates at least as much as traders expect next year.

Persons: Heiko Becker, BoE, Shamik Dhar, Christine Lagarde, Piet Christiansen, Lagarde, Goldman, Gurpreet Gill, Dario Perkins, Yoruk, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Dhara Ranasinghe, Emelia Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Traders, ECB, Fed, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, BNY Mellon Investment, Treasury, Reuters, Danske Bank, Asset Management, Lombard, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, United States, Europe, U.S, Britain, Israel

☆ For markets, BoE communication is bottom of the class
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank expectations have meanwhile risen only marginally. For investors, clear communication from central bankers is crucial as they transmit their policy to borrowing costs through markets. The BoE was the first major central bank to start hiking rates. In contrast, they have long bet on more hikes than the BoE's main forecasts have implied are needed to tame inflation, rates futures show. BoE messaging, suggesting a reluctance to hike, has made it "very difficult" to own gilts recently, he said.

Persons: BoE, Toby Melville, Shamik Dhar, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Schroders, Azad Zangana, Zangana, Liz Truss, Myles Bradshaw, Chris Jeffery, Jerome, Powell, Christine, Lagarde, it's, Craig, Yoruk, Dhara Ranasinghe, William Schomberg, John Stonestreet Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, Fed, ECB, of England, Traders, . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Bank of England's, Investors, Graphics, of England's, Reuters, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, U.S, Dhar

LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - Hawkish central banks have sent a resounding "no" to markets betting recession would force rate cuts soon, leaving money managers scrambling for direction as the second half of the year approaches. "Markets have been wrong not only in their interpretation of the data but of the central bank reaction," he added. "Even though inflation is coming down, you are still getting that phase were the central banks think they need to talk hawkishly about this." Canada last week restarted rate hikes, Australia has come off a pause and Norway may have to accelerate hikes next week. BofA now expects two 25 bps interest rate hikes from the Fed this year, JPMorgan sees only one more and Morgan Stanley sees none.

Persons: Jason Simpson, Shorter, BofA, Morgan Stanley, Mark Nash, Nash, Kaspar Hense, Michael Michaelides, Shamik, BoE, they're, Dhar, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Conor Humphries Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, State, Bank of Japan, Treasury, JPMorgan, BlueBay Asset Management, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Canada, Australia, Norway, Shamik Dhar

☆ Credit squeeze 'biggest threat' to economic outlook, Fidelity says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Brittany Hosea-Small/File Photo/File PhotoPARIS, April 19 (Reuters) - The biggest threat to the economic outlook is a credit squeeze that has not finished filtering through the financial system, a senior official at Fidelity Investments told a European equities conference on Wednesday. The "biggest threat" to the economy is a "true and visible credit crunch", Romain Boscher, chairman of the board at Fidelity Investments, which has about $4.5 trillion of assets under management, told the conference. Higher rates should be a permanent expectation, he said. Dhar said if credit conditions tightened enough, the U.S. would slip into a recession in the second half of the year. Harsher economic conditions and higher rates have changed priorities for asset manager portfolios, both said.

☆ Credit squeeze 'biggest threat' to economic outlook - asset managers
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Brittany Hosea-Small/File Photo/File PhotoPARIS, April 19 (Reuters) - The biggest threat to the economic outlook is a credit squeeze that has not finished filtering through the financial system, two senior asset managers told a European equities conference on Wednesday. For asset managers, hedge funds and traders gathered in Paris for the Tradetech equity trading conference, recession risks were a key talking point. Higher rates should be a permanent expectation, he said. Dhar said if credit conditions tightened enough, the U.S. would slip into a recession in the second half of the year. Harsher economic conditions and higher rates have changed priorities for asset manager portfolios, both said.

☆ Stock picking isn't dead. But it might as well be for most investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Index funds tend to be cheaper. Obviously, index provider S&P Global (SPGI) has a vested interest in promoting passive funds backed to various benchmark indexes. Even legendary investing guru Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) has extolled the virtues of index funds for average investors. He noted that just one of every four active funds beat their passive benchmarks over the ten years ending in June. That’s why some investors aren’t singing a funeral dirge for active stock picking – just yet.

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