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Read previewThe Federal Reserve's path of rate cuts could be what ends up causing a US recession, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. Elevated interest rates could cut into economic activity and employment, Powell said at a press conference on Wednesday. At this point, the economy faces a bigger risk of recession than rampant inflation, El-Erian suggested. The recession outlook remains mixed, given the cocktail of tight financial conditions and resilient economic growth so far. According to New York Fed economists, the US has a 52% chance of slipping into recession by May next year.
Persons: , Mohamed El, Erian, Powell Organizations: Service, Business, Fed, Yahoo Finance, San Francisco Fed, New York Fed, Consumer Locations: El
Mike Lynch, a British software mogul who was once one of his country’s most celebrated chief executives, was acquitted of fraud on Thursday in San Francisco federal court, clearing him of charges that he had led one of the biggest frauds in the technology industry. A jury found him not guilty of falsely inflating revenue at Autonomy, the company he founded and led, when he sold it to Hewlett-Packard for $11 billion in 2011. Mr. Lynch, 58, who faced decades in prison, had initially been charged with 16 counts of fraud and conspiracy, though one fraud charge was eventually dismissed. Thursday’s verdict, coming after a monthslong trial in California, is a milestone in Mr. Lynch’s decade-long odyssey to clear his name.
Persons: Mike Lynch, Lynch Organizations: Autonomy, Hewlett, Packard, Mr Locations: British, San Francisco federal, California
In 2011, 86% of college graduates said their degree had been a good investment; in 2013, 70% of U.S. adults said a college education was "very important," according to Pew Research Center and Gallup surveys. Today, 29% of Americans say that college isn't worth the cost — and roughly half (49%) say having a four-year college degree is less important for landing a high-paying job today than it was 20 years ago, according to a new survey from the Pew Research Center. Only 22% of U.S. adults say the cost of getting a four-year degree today is worth it even if someone has to take out loans, Pew found. College graduates on average earn more than those without a four-year degree — but this so-called college wage premium is shrinking. A recent report from the San Francisco Federal Reserve found that the college wage gap peaked in the mid-2010s but declined by four percentage points in 2022.
Persons: Pew, Richard Fry Organizations: Pew Research Center, Gallup, U.S . News, College, San Francisco Federal Reserve, Economic, Institute, Pew, CNBC Locations: U.S
Fed officials aren’t easing Wall Street’s nerves
  + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Optimism spurred by the latest inflation data pushed all three major stock indexes to new record highs. But now Wall Street, eager for rate cuts, is on edge again. But some financial leaders remain doubtful that the Fed is feeling confident enough to cut rates soon. “I think we’re set up for stickier inflation.”Some Fed officials say another rate hike isn’t likelyFed officials have mostly sounded a little more optimistic about inflation recently, after the Consumer Price Index for April finally provided some welcome news. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told Bloomberg on Monday that she also thinks interest rates are high enough to deal with inflation.
Persons: they’re, Dow, Christopher Waller, ” Waller, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, “ I’m, , , Philip Jefferson, Mary Daly, Axios, Jerome Powell, Klaas Knot, Loretta Mester, Chris Larkin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, CNBC, , Peterson Institute for International Economics, Boston College, Mortgage, Association, ” San Francisco Fed, European Central Bank Governing, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, Locations: ” San
Rachel Wisniewski | ReutersAmericans are kicking the can down the road on some more-costly, traditionally financed purchases as elevated inflation and interest rates bite. "As a result, consumers continue to scrutinize their spending and make near-term decisions based primarily on need, price and perceived value. But those options have fallen out of favor as interest rates rose. He also cited increased interest rates as another weight on their shoulders. Lofty interest rates have also hampered housing improvement efforts for those staying put, according to Home Depot .
Persons: Rachel Wisniewski, Joe, Shelly Ibach, Ibach, FactSet, Mark Mathews, Platt, J, Mitchell Dolloff, Dow Jones, it's, Mathews, Enphase, Badri Kothandaraman, Marc Bitzer, Patrick T, bode, Robert Ohmes, Richard McPhail, It's, McPhail Organizations: Reuters, Reserve, Prosper, National Retail Federation, San Francisco Fed, New York Fed, Management, Commerce Department, Consumers, Whirlpool, Fallon, Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of America, CNBC Locations: Gilbertsville , Pennsylvania, Minneapolis, U.S, California, Torrance , Calif, Minnesota
CNN —A federal judge on Friday sentenced David DePape to 30 years in prison, after he was convicted in the violent October 2022 attack on Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul. DePape was sentenced to 30 years for assault and 20 years for attempted kidnapping, which will run concurrently. DePape recalled that he was looking for Nancy Pelosi and that her husband had not been on his list of targets. She’s in Washington,” Pelosi recalled answering. He was violently struck in the head following a struggle with DePape, Pelosi said.
Persons: David DePape, Nancy Pelosi’s, Paul, DePape, Jacqueline Scott Corley, , Paul Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi, , , I’ll, ” DePape, Pelosi “, ” Paul Pelosi, Narendra Modi, Stefani Reynolds, Pelosi, “ She’s, ” Pelosi, “ I’ve Organizations: CNN, Northern, Northern District of, India's, White, Getty Locations: Northern District, Northern District of California, San Francisco federal, Washington ,, AFP, Washington
In the 12 months since his layoff, Martins said he's been actively looking and applying for jobs but hasn't had much luck. In recent years, the rise of remote work and historically high job openings have helped more people with health issues find employment. But remote jobs aren't as common as they used to be — and there's competition to land one. AdvertisementThe share of US remote job postings on LinkedIn fell from over 20% in April 2022 to about 10% in December 2023. But without a job, he's had to deal with some financial stresses.
Persons: , Felipe Martins, Martins, He'd, didn't, he's, hasn't, he'd, He's, doesn't, scammers Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, San Francisco Fed, Social, BLS, LinkedIn, scammers, Federal Trade Commission Locations: Utah, Washington
Oil prices up on stronger Chinese data, Middle East conflict
  + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Oil prices rose on Friday, continuing upwards trend on the signs of improving economy in China and as negotiations to halt hostilities in the stand-off between Israel and Hamas yielded no results. In the previous session, oil prices edged up to a one-week high on data of rising crude oil imports in China in April and as investors saw the cooling U.S. job market as an indication of possible interest rate cuts. China's exports and imports returned to growth in April after contracting in the previous month, signaling an improvement in demand. "Ongoing signs of strength in demand in China should see commodity market remain well supported," ANZ Research said in a note. Daly did not say if she felt the U.S. central bank was likely or not to cut interest rates this year.
Persons: Brent, Mary Daly, Daly, Benjamin Netanyahu, Joe Biden's Organizations: U.S, West Texas, ANZ Research, San Francisco Federal, Financial Locations: China, Israel, U.S, Rafah, Gaza, Cairo
First-class travel has exhibited special strength, though management noted that can be tied in part to a resurgence of business trips. People taking these loans are more likely to be lower-income with no more than a high school diploma, Lanier said. Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFrozen food maker Tyson Foods has seen consumers shifting more to eating at home than the quick-service restaurants it supplies. It's also important to remember that lower-income Americans were feeling financial pressures before the pandemic, said Tyler Schipper, an associate professor of economics at the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota. Airbnb touted interest in travel to events like the Paris Olympics and the European Cup in Germany this summer.
Persons: there's, It's, Christophe Le Caillec, underscoring, Blair Lanier, Lanier, McDonald's, Tyson, Daniel Acker, Tyson Foods, Stanley Black, Decker, Jane Fraser, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Fraser, Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler, Tyler Schipper, Thomas, Schipper, Eric Thayer, We've, Cliff Pemble Organizations: TSN, American Express, Federal Reserve, CNBC, People, University of Michigan, San Francisco Federal Reserve, U.S, PepsiCo, Bloomberg, Getty, Tyson, Management, Adobe Analytics, Furniture, Citigroup, University of St, Airlines, Delta Air Lines, JetBlue Airways, Caribbean . Booking Holdings, Paris Olympics, European, Ticketmaster, Cedar Fair, Flags, Wayfair, Garmin Locations: America, U.S, Minnesota, New York, Germany, Valencia , California
Initial claims climbed to 231,000 last week, marking the highest level since August. A handful of disappointing earnings results have come at the tail end of an otherwise upbeat season. AdvertisementMajor stock indexes were mixed on Thursday as traders mulled a fresh job report that showed the labor market cooling. A handful of disappointing earnings reports have capped off what's otherwise been a fairly upbeat earnings season. Markets will be tuned into more Fed speakers Thursday and Friday.
Persons: Stocks, , Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Labor Department, Dow Jones, Warner Bros, San Francisco Fed, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: Here's
But now that extra spending money is gone, economists are concerned about what comes next. That means many Americans have more debt than savings and suggests “that American households fully spent their pandemic-era savings as of March 2024,” they wrote in a recent report. Consumer spending plays a crucial role in driving economic growth in the United States, and it has shown remarkable strength over the past two years. “A continuing strong labor market could help consumers maintain spending patterns similar to those observed recently, even without pandemic-era savings,” they wrote. What comes next: Disney, Airbnb, Uber, Anheuser-Busch, Tapestry and Dillards all report later this week — investors will look for any comments about how consumer spending, or lack thereof, is altering revenue forecasts for 2024.
Persons: Hamza Abdelrahman, Luiz Edgard Oliveira, , Austan Goolsbee, ’ ”, Fitch, Sarah Wyeth, Chris Kempczinski, Abdelrahman, Airbnb, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Greg Abel, Buffett, , Abel, isn’t, Boeing “, Scott Stocker, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, San Francisco Federal Reserve, Chicago Federal, Society for, , Shoppers, Tyson Foods, , Disney, Anheuser, Busch, Berkshire, International Monetary Fund, Industries, Nvidia, Microsoft, FAA, Boeing, Federal Aviation Administration, CNN Locations: New York, United States, Omaha , Nebraska, Omaha, scamming
A coming recession could end up sparking a "violent correction" in stocks, Gary Shilling told BI. The top forecaster pointed to warning signs of a downturn, such as a weaker job market. AdvertisementInvestors should be prepared for a recession with the potential to send the stock market plummeting this year, according to top forecaster Gary Shilling. That could be the final blow to the stock market rally fueled by investor overconfidence, causing stocks to drop by as much as 30%, Shilling said. Related storiesThe job market, for one, is "obviously slipping" as firms pull back on hiring, Shilling said.
Persons: Gary Shilling, , overconfidence, Shilling, we've, we're Organizations: Service, Business, Wall, Employers, San Francisco, Treasury
AdvertisementIt could be all about recessionsSince the 1950s, whenever the US economy fell into a recession, the rate of working men tended to suffer a lasting blow. AdvertisementWhy have recessions appeared to have such a lasting impact on working men? The strong recovery of men working after the pandemic recession could be due to the unique nature of this downturn — which tanked an otherwise healthy economy. And of course, some lucky prime-age men aren't working because they've had a lot of financial success — and already retired. Deciphering how much these explanations have fueled the decline of working men could be worthy of further explanation, the economists said.
Persons: , It's, Abigail Wozniak, Wozniak, David Autor, There's, Jason Furman, Barack Obama's, Elise Gould, Gould, aren't, we've, John M, Coglianese, they've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Washington Post, of Labor Statistics, San Francisco Fed, BLS, Economic, Economic Policy Institute, Federal Reserve
U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday as investors digested comments from Federal Reserve policymakers about the state of the economy and monetary policy outlook. Investors considered the path ahead for interest rates after comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell. "The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence, and instead indicate that it's likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence," he said. Earlier in the week, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said there was "no urgency" for rate cuts to begin. Further comments from Fed officials are expected later in the week.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Mary Daly Organizations: Treasury, . U.S, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Locations: .
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by nearly 2 basis point to 4.6344%, trading at levels last seen in mid-November of 2023. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 4.947% after rising by less than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Tuesday as investors considered the latest economic data and comments from Federal Reserve policymakers. Investors weighed the path ahead for interest rates as they considered the latest economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said there was "no urgency" for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Persons: Mary Daly Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Investors, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Locations: Israel
But a resurgence in the industry could complicate the Federal Reserve’s ongoing inflation fight, either delaying the first interest rate cut or resulting in fewer cuts this year, some economists say. Interest rates have been at a two-decade high since July, after the Fed raised rates aggressively over the prior year and a half. The economy picking up further strength would spook Wall Street because of what it means for interest rates — and some manufacturers say they’re optimistic about the future. The Bank of Canada announces its latest interest rate decision. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases March inflation data.
Persons: Joe Biden, , Tom Barkin, , Mary Daly, ” Daly, Jerome Powell, Neel Kashkari, ” Kashkari, ” Richard de Chazal, Blair, they’re “, Amazon’s, It’s, Ramishah Maruf, Amazon, haven’t, Read Organizations: Washington CNN, Institute for Supply Management, Congress, Fed, ” Richmond Fed, ” San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dow, Blair Equity Research, Amazon, Fresh, Delta Air Lines, US Labor Department, Index, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, National Bureau of Statistics, Constellation Brands, European Central Bank, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, State, National Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: Richmond , Virginia, ” San, Las Vegas, India, Wells Fargo, Progressive, BlackRock
3 things rattling markets this week
  + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
The S&P 500 tumbled the first two trading days of the new quarter and is down 0.8% for the week after paring back some of its losses on Wednesday. Some Fed officials revealed at the central bank’s policy meeting last month that they see fewer rate cuts than the three they forecast last December for 2024. Traders see a 63% expectation that the Fed cuts rates in June, a drop from more than 70% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “With Middle East tensions on the rise, OPEC+ supply side measures have pushed crude oil volatility down,” BofA strategists wrote in a Wednesday report. “Adding to a complex backdrop, we now estimate that improving economic growth expectations have helped push global oil markets into a deficit.”The price of gold has also climbed this week.
Persons: New York CNN — Stocks, , , Brent Schutte, Jerome Powell, , Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Brent, Michael Shvartsman, Gerald Shvartsman, Donald Trump’s, Matt Egan, “ Michael, ” Damian Williams, Bruce Garelick, ” Williams, ” Read, Joe Biden, Sean Lyngaas, China Nicholas Burns, Antony Blinken, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, Treasury, FactSet, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Hawkish, San Francisco Fed, Stanford University, Wednesday, • Cleveland Fed, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Traders, Organization of, Petroleum, West Texas, Brent, Bank of America, Trump Media, Trump Media & Technology Group, DWAC, Southern, of, Acquisition Corporation, , Microsoft, US, Department of Homeland Security, CNN Locations: New York, OPEC, Florida, of New York, Washington, China
Yields and prices move in opposite directions, and one basis point equals 0.01%. The 2-year Treasury note yield was up around 1 basis point at 4.709%. The 10-year Treasury note briefly broke above 4.4% in intraday trade on Tuesday to notch its highest level since late November. The 10-year Treasury note yield moved higher on Wednesday, building on gains from the previous session as investors await the release of further U.S. economic data. The market moves come as investors track economic data and closely monitor clues from Fed policymakers about the expected number of interest rate cuts in 2024.
Persons: Loretta Mester, Mary Daly, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, Traders, Cleveland Federal, San Francisco Fed, PMI, Institute for Supply Management Locations: U.S
CNBC Daily Open: A projection is not a promise
  + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Clement Tan | In Clemtan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineU.S. Federal Reserve officials are dampening rate cut expectations again, and again. In comments echoing those of the Federal Open Market Committee's two weeks ago, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday she expects cuts this year — but wants to see more convincing evidence that inflation has been subdued. "Three rate cuts is a projection, and a projection is not a promise," Daly said.
Persons: Spencer Platt, Mary Daly, Daly, Loretta Mester, Vishnu Varathan, , Jeff Cox Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Cleveland Federal, Malaysian, U.S Locations: New York City, U.S, Asia, Japan
Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell speaks during the Stanford Business, Government and Society Forum at Stanford University on April 03, 2024 in Stanford, California. Justin Sullivan | Getty ImagesFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday it will take a while for policymakers to evaluate the current state of inflation, keeping the timing of potential interest rate cuts uncertain. "We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent," he added. "Recent readings on both job gains and inflation have come in higher than expected," Powell said. The uncertainty about rates has caused some consternation in markets, with stocks falling sharply earlier this week as Treasury yields moved higher.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Justin Sullivan, Powell, Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, Cleveland's Loretta Mester Organizations: Bank, Stanford Business, Government, Society, Stanford University, Getty, Federal, Market, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, San Francisco Fed, Group Locations: Stanford , California
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 418 points, or 1.1%, on Tuesday after declining more than 500 points at its lows. That means the blue-chip index has sunk roughly 800 points during the first two days of the second quarter. On Tuesday morning, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.5%. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.5% for the 12 months that ended in February, a faster clip than January’s price increase. Traders pulled back their expectations for a rate cut in June to about 62% from more than 70% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: New York CNN — Stocks, Jerome Powell, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, San Francisco Fed, Traders Locations: New York
Fed's Daly: No urgency to adjust the rate
  + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's Daly: No urgency to adjust the rateCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'The Exchange' to report on San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's statements about the economy.
Persons: Fed's Daly, Steve Liesman, Mary Daly's Organizations: San Francisco Fed
CNN —Google will delete billions of data records as part of a settlement for a lawsuit that accused the tech giant of improperly tracking the web-browsing habits of users who thought they were browsing the internet privately. As part of the settlement, Google must delete “billions of data records” that reflect the private browsing activities of users in the class action suit, according to court documents filed Monday in San Francisco federal court. Google will also update its disclosure to inform users about what data it collects each time a user initiates a private browsing session. For the next five years, Google will also let private browsing users block third-party cookies as part of the settlement. “Moreover, the settlement requires Google to delete and remediate, in unprecedented scope and scale, the data it improperly collected in the past,” Boies added.
Persons: David Boies, ” Boies, José, ” “, Castañeda, Organizations: CNN, Google Locations: San Francisco federal
Bruch is one of the largest individual FTX creditors and has been tapped by the US Department of Justice to serve as one of nine on the FTX Creditors’ Committee, where he is working to recoup the funds lost by customers. DOJ-appointed creditor committees ordinarily consist of people and companies who hold the seven largest unsecured claims against the debtor (in this case, FTX), according to the agency. Before the Bell spoke with Bruch about Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX, MyPrize and the future of crypto. I feel for all of the creditors and am doing everything I can to help recoup what was taken from us. I’ve worked at some of the largest crypto trading desks in the world and then also started trading my own book of capital and grew to become one of the largest individual crypto traders.
Persons: Sam Bankman, Fried, Zach Bruch, Bruch, MyPrize, Bell, Sam Bankman Fried, , , Sam Bankman Fried’s, Bitcoin, I’ve, Elisabeth Buchwald, Jerome Powell wasn’t, ” Powell, Powell, Christopher Waller, Evan Gershkovich, Evan Gershkovich’s, Radina Gigova, Anna Chernova, Antonina Favorskaya, Alexey Navalny, Favorskaya, Gershkovich Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, US Department of Justice, , DOJ, Arrington Capital, Department of Justice, Federal, Commerce Department, San Francisco Fed, ” Fed, CNN, Wall Street Locations: New York, Russia, Yekaterinburg
But the Fed is prepared to ignore Wall Street’s hope for a rate cut in June if it feels the economy isn’t ready yet. That’s the message Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered on Friday. Powell wasn’t fretting about it though, saying that it was “pretty much in line with our expectations.”Why wait to cut then? “This is an economy that doesn’t feel like it’s suffering from the current level of rates,” Powell said. Like Powell, several Fed officials have conveyed they’re more concerned about cutting too soon than prolonging the status quo.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , , Powell, Powell wasn’t, there’s, ” Powell, Raphael Bostic, Powell’s, Donald Trump, he’s, Joe Biden —, Powell — Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Atlanta Fed, Republican Locations: New York
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