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Economist discusses Rhine water level forecasts
  + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomist discusses Rhine water level forecastsSalomon Fiedler, economist at Berenberg, says 2023 is shaping up not to be "that bad" a year for the Rhine.
Persons: Salomon Fiedler Organizations: Economist
London CNN —Industrial production in Europe’s biggest economy fell 1.5% in June compared with May, driven by a 3.5% drop in Germany’s vast automotive sector. The decline in German industrial output, much steeper than forecast by economists, raises the risk that the manufacturing heavyweight will contract again later this year, potentially falling back into recession. The construction sector, where output shrank by 2.8%, also had a negative impact on overall industrial production, the country’s statistics office said Monday. “German industry remains in rough waters,” Salomon Fiedler, economist at Berenberg, said in a note Monday, noting last year’s energy price shock and weakness in US and Chinese demand, among other factors. Berenberg expects Germany to fall back into “a mild recession” in the second half of this year, Fiedler added.
Persons: , ” Franziska Palmas, Jörg Krämer, Hildegard Müller, ” Salomon Fiedler, Fiedler, — Mark Thompson, Anna Cooban Organizations: London CNN —, Capital Economics, Auto, German Automotive Industry Association, Volkswagen Locations: Germany, Europe, China, Russia, Ukraine,
That will leave investors guessing whether another rate hike is coming in September or if July marks the end of the ECB's fastest-ever tightening spree. While markets had fully priced in another rate hike just a few weeks ago, investors are now split, with many expecting July's move to be the last. "We see a 60% probability that the ECB will hike again by a final 25bp on 14 September," Berenberg's Salomon Fiedler said. "Softer data such as the drop in the Eurozone composite PMI indicate a rising chance that the central bank will stay put in September already." This is a key reason why the balance of expectations has started to shift away from another rate hike, with economists increasingly focusing on how long rates will stay high.
Persons: July's, Berenberg's Salomon Fiedler, Isabel Schnabel, Jerome Powell, Anatoli Annenkov, Christine Lagarde, Commerzbank's Marco Wagner, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, PMI, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT
Europe's natural gas prices fall below €50
  + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
London CNN —Europe’s natural gas prices have tumbled to their lowest level in nearly 18 months in the latest sign the region has avoided a much-feared energy crisis. Benchmark wholesale gas prices fell almost 5% Friday to hit €49 ($52) per megawatt hour, their lowest level since September 2021 and a fraction of the all-time high of €320 hit in August last year, according to data from Independent Commodity Intelligence Service. The plunge in prices will further reduce the risk of a recession in Europe. Gas stores across the European Union were 65% full on Thursday, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, an industry body. The bloc has also boosted imports of pipeline natural gas from Norway, and of liquefied natural gas (LNG) — a chilled, liquid form of gas that can be transported via sea tankers — mostly from the United States and Qatar.
The overall rise is a reversal of a 15-year trend that has seen US stock indices, flush with fast-growing tech companies, consistently beat those across the Atlantic. Over the past decade, investors poured money into fast-growing tech stocks, aided by ultra-low interest rates. (SXXL)But tech companies have taken a beating recently. Tech companies, including Microsoft and Alphabet, announced thousands of layoffs last month. High interest rates make it more expensive for companies to borrow to expand their business, raising doubts about their future earnings.
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