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☆ Downturn in Canada's economy seen deepening if US growth fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Canadian central bank expects that the economy will avoid a recession, and last month forecast growth of 0.8% for both the third and fourth quarters. Since then, preliminary data has indicted a shallow economic contraction for a second straight quarter in the third quarter. Analysts say that if U.S. activity slows, then the Canadian economy could shrink in the current quarter as well. BMO projects that U.S. growth will slow to 0.9% in the fourth quarter and that Canada's economy will shrink 1%. The potential for further weakening in the Canadian economy is already evident in money markets.

Persons: Chris Helgren, Karl Schamotta, Sal Guatieri, Stephen Brown, Brown, Fergal Smith, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Roberts Bank, REUTERS, Rights TORONTO, Bank of, BoC, BMO Capital Markets, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta's, BMO, North, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Delta, British Columbia, Canada, United States, Bank of Canada, Canadian, U.S, sniffles, North America

☆ US consumer spending exits third quarter on strong note; monthly core inflation rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 0.3%, after edging up 0.1% in August. The so-called core PCE price index rose 3.7% on a year-on-year basis in September, the smallest gain since May 2021, after increasing 3.8% in August. Stripping out housing, the core PCE price index rose by a mild 0.2%. The super core PCE price index advanced 4.3% year-on-year in September. Policymakers are watching the super core PCE price index to try and gauge their progress in combating inflation.

Persons: Bing Guan, Sal Guatieri, James Knightley, Chris Low, Pooja Sriram, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Federal, BMO Capital Markets, Commerce Department's, Economic, Reuters, Consumer, ING, FHN, Treasury, Fed, Barclays, Thomson Locations: SoHo, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, Toronto, New York

☆ US third-quarter economic growth seen fastest in nearly 2 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

While the anticipated robust growth pace notched last quarter is probably not sustainable, it would demonstrate the economy's resilience despite aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP likely increased at a 4.3% annualized rate last quarter, which would be the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2021. Others are not too concerned, noting the labor market continues to churn out jobs at a solid clip. Growth last quarter was also seen lifted by a smaller trade deficit, thanks to strong exports and increased inventory investment. But the labor dispute, which is costing auto makers millions of dollars per week, could weigh on growth in the fourth quarter.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Joe Biden's, Sal Guatieri, Luke Tilley, it's, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Brian Bethune, Lucia Mutikani, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Business, WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, BMO Capital Markets, Consumer, Wilmington Trust, Labor, Labor Department, U.S, Treasury, Financial, Group's, BNP, Boston College, Thomson Locations: Brooklyn , New York City, U.S, Toronto, American, Wilmington, Philadelphia, New York

A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. Interest rate futures are pricing in no change next week, but are nearly split over whether rates rise once more. In the latest poll, eight of 34 economists expect one more rate rise to 5.25% by the end of this year, compared with only one in a July poll. "We expect the Bank will hold the overnight rate steady at 5.00% through mid-2024 as the full impact of past rate hikes helps push the economy into a moderate recession. A scenario in which Canadian interest rates stay higher for longer could increase pressure on highly-indebted households, with almost 20% of Canadian mortgages due for renewal next year.

Persons: Chris Wattie, Claire Fan, Tony Stillo, We're, Sal Guatieri, BMO's Guatieri, Milounee Purohit, Prerana Bhat, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: Bank of Canada, REUTERS, BoC, Canada, RBC, Oxford Economics, U.S . Federal, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, Canadian

A 90% majority, 99 of 110 economists, polled Aug 14-18 say the Fed will keep the federal funds rate in the 5.25-5.50% range at its September meeting, in line with market pricing. The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation has fallen sharply from a peak of 7.0% following 11 interest rate hikes from near-zero in early 2022. As recently as June, over a three-quarters majority of economists polled said the Fed would start by end-March. Another 33 respondents, roughly 35%, forecast the Fed will go for its first rate cut in Q2, leaving 79 of 95, or 83% expecting at least one rate cut by mid-2024. That would help price pressures decline over the coming months, making the fed funds rate adjusted for inflation - the real interest rate - more restrictive if held unchanged.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Sal Guatieri, David Mericle, Goldman Sachs, Prerana Bhat, Indradip Ghosh, Pranoy Krishna, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: U.S . Federal, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, Federal, Committee, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU

"We now forecast a mild recession in the U.S. economy this year ... In May and June, the Fed staff projections "continued to assume" the U.S. economy would be in recession by the end of the year. Fed policymakers' projections, which are issued on a quarterly basis, never showed GDP contracting on an annual basis. 'CHUGGING ALONG'What made the difference between an in-the-moment recession that many thought was underway last year to growth that has surprised to the upside? An Atlanta Fed GDP "nowcast" puts output growth for the current July-September period at 5.0%, showing continued strong momentum.

Persons: Biden, Michael Gapen, Gapen, Jerome Powell, Powell, Sharif, We've, Sal Guatieri, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Bank of America, Fed, Reuters, Valley Bank, Atlanta Fed, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, California

☆ US job growth slowing but labor market still tight
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Labor Department's employment report on Friday also showed job growth in May and June was revised lower, potentially suggesting demand for labor was slowing in the wake of the Federal Reserve's hefty interest rate hikes. "We haven't approached that fork in the road yet, but there is still a strong possibility that the labor market can rebalance without a recession." The job growth in June was the weakest since December 2020. With the labor market still tight, wages continued to rise at a solid clip. "The Fed will take comfort from moderating job growth, but will continue to fret about the tight labor market," said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Nick Bunker, Sal Guatieri, Lucia Mutikani, Diane Craft, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Data, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Employment, Treasury, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, Toronto

☆ US job growth slows; wage gains remain strong
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Nevertheless, the pace of job growth remains strong by historical norms and was further evidence that the economy was far from a dreaded recession. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 209,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since December 2020, the survey of establishments showed. Government employment increased by 60,000, boosted by a 59,000 rise in state and local government payrolls. Government employment remains 161,000 below its pre-pandemic levels. Annual wage growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.

Persons: Sal Guatieri, Nonfarm, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve, Labor, Fed, BMO Capital Markets, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Toronto

☆ US consumer spending hits speed bump; inflation picture mixed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rising 0.2%. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending was unchanged. Data for April was revised lower to show the so-called real consumer spending rising only 0.2% instead of 0.5% as previously reported. With consumer spending softening, inflation subsided. The so-called core PCE price index increased 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in May after advancing 4.7% in April.

Persons: Kevork, Sal Guatieri, Joe Biden's, Mike Graziano, Morgan Stanley, Dana Peterson, Lucia Mutikani, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, Commerce, Reserve, BMO Capital Markets, Reuters, Services outlays, Treasury, RSM, Fed, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles, WASHINGTON, U.S, Toronto, Outlays, New York, Washington

☆ US employers boost hiring in May; unemployment rate jumps to 3.7%
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The increase in the unemployment rate from a 53-year low of 3.4% in April reported by the Labor Department on Friday was mostly driven by Blacks. The backfilling of these retirements and increased demand for services are some of the factors driving job growth. Most economists expect overall payrolls growth to continue at least through the end of the year. The drop in household employment combined with a 130,000 increase in the labor force to boost the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate for blacks jumped to 5.6% from 4.7% in April.

Persons: payrolls, Sal Guatieri, Nick Bunker, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Labor Department, Blacks, BMO Capital Markets, Fed, Reuters, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Leisure, Writers Guild of America, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Toronto, joblessness

☆ US employers boost hiring in May, but labor market losing steam
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Outside the COVID-19 pandemic, it was the biggest jump since 2010, reflecting a drop in household employment and a rise in the workforce. "However, the other areas of softness in this report suggests that the labor market is losing steam. The backfilling of these retirements and increased demand for services are some of the factors driving job growth. While not dismissing the household survey, economists said the establishment survey was the more reliable of the two. The fall in household employment combined with a rise of 130,000 in the labor force to boost the unemployment rate.

Persons: payrolls, Sal Guatieri, Nonfarm, Mike Blake, Gus Faucher, Conrad DeQuadros, DeQuadros, Daniel Zhao, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor Department, BMO Capital Markets, Fed, Reuters, Leisure, Treasury, REUTERS, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Financial, Writers Guild of America, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PNC Financial, Brean, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Toronto, Oceanside , California, Pittsburgh , Pennsylvania, New York

Average house prices as measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas were forecast to stagnate next year. "Looking ahead, we think there is scope for prices to fall a little further. "Given supply is likely to stay tight, there is a risk house prices may not fall as much as we previously expected." The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, currently around 6.7%, was expected to average 6.2% in 2023. Those high mortgage rates are restricting housing supply, which puts upward pressure on prices, as well as demand.

Persons: Sam Hall, haven't, Sal Guatieri, Indradip Ghosh, Prerana Bhat, Aditi Verma, Maneesh Kumar, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: stagnating, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU

☆ US consumer spending appears solid early in second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services rebounded 0.7% last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for March was revised slightly down to show these so-called core retail sales slipping 0.4% instead of 0.3% as previously reported. Core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Economists estimated that core retail sales adjusted for inflation rose by about 0.6% in April. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, rose 0.6%.

☆ US retail sales post second straight monthly drop; factory output falls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Retail sales dropped 1.0% last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for February was revised up to show retail sales falling 0.2% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. Retail sales are mostly goods, which are typically bought on credit, and are not adjusted for inflation. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, edged up 0.1%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales slipped 0.3% last month.

☆ U.S. consumer spending retreats in February; inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The slowdown in consumer spending reported by the Commerce Department on Friday followed the largest gain in nearly two years in January. Consumer spending, which remains supported by a tight labor market, appears on track to pick up this quarter after growing at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased 0.2% last month. In the 12 months through February, the PCE price index advanced 5.0% after rising 5.3% in the 12 months through January. The so-called core PCE price index rose 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in February after gaining 4.7% in January.

☆ US reports strong job growth in February; wage gains slow
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

They say the economy needs to create 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. The labor market has remained tight, with first-time applications for unemployment benefits staying extremely low despite high-profile layoffs in the technology industry. Households' perceptions of the labor market were also quite upbeat last month. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6% in February from 3.4% in January, which was the lowest since May 1969. This broader measure of unemployment rose to 6.8% in February.

☆ U.S. consumer spending, inflation cool in November
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, edged up 0.1%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending rising 0.2%. Slowing price increases for some goods also lowered the dollar amount of consumer spending. Consumer spending is being driven by solid wage gains, thanks to a tight labor market, as well as savings accumulated during first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Higher borrowing costs, fast-depleting savings and diminishing household wealth could stifle consumer spending, and tip the economy into recession next year.

☆ U.S. heading into shallow recession, no respite from rate hikes yet: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Unless inflation recedes quickly, the U.S. economy still appears headed for some trouble, though possibly a little later than expected. Although the fed funds rate is expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% early next year in line with interest rate futures, one-third of economists, 24 of 72, expected it to go higher. A large majority of economists, 35 of 48, said any recession would be short and shallow. Eight said long and shallow, while four said there won't be any recession. The U.S. unemployment rate (USUNR=ECI), which so far has stayed low, was expected to climb from the current 3.7% to 4.9% by early 2024.

☆ U.S. economy rebounds in Q3 on boost from trade, but demand stalling
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

While overall inflation slowed substantially from the second quarter, underlying price pressures continued to bubble. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.6% annualized rate last quarter after contracting at a 0.6% pace in the second quarter. That was the slowest rise in this measure of domestic demand since the second quarter of 2020 and followed a 0.5% rate of increase in the second quarter. A broader measure of inflation in the economy rose at a 4.6% rate, decelerating from a 8.5% pace of increase in the second quarter. Business inventories increased at a rate of $61.9 billion after rising at a pace of $110.2 billion in the second quarter.

☆ Soaring rent, food costs keep U.S. inflation on front burner; labor market tight
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Food prices increased 0.8%, with the cost of food at home advancing 0.7% amid rises in all six major grocery store food groups. The war in Ukraine also poses an upside risk to food prices. In the 12 months through September, the CPI increased 8.2% after rising 8.3% in August, decelerating for a third straight month. The so-called core CPI is being largely driven by the higher costs for rental accommodation. The core CPI jumped 6.6% in the 12 months through September, the most since August 1982, after rising 6.3% in August.

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