"With most U.S. economists forecasting either a recession or significant slowdown this year, banks will likely incorporate a more severe economic outlook," said Morgan Stanley analysts led by Betsy Graseck in a note. Rising prices and higher borrowing costs have prompted consumers and businesses to curb their spending, and since banks serve as economic middlemen, their profits decline when activity slows. Reuters GraphicsStill, lenders stand to gain from rising rates that allow them to earn more from the interest they charge borrowers. Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, among others, have also cut jobs after a plunge in investment-banking activity. Analysts will also watch if banks such as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America book any writedowns on the $13-billion loan to fund Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter.

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