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Read previewPersistent inflation and a full-blown recession are still firmly on the table, two Wall Street titans have warned. Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Thursday that sticky inflation is more likely than many people think. Dimon said the "worst outcome" would be stagflation — a painful combination of elevated inflation, higher rates, and a recession that would hit consumers and pull down corporate profits. No cuts and a real slowdownDavid Solomon struck a similar tone at a Boston College event on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported. Solomon also said in March that he was less certain of a soft landing than the market consensus.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, Dimon, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Solomon Organizations: Service, Wall, CNBC, JPMorgan, Business, Federal Reserve, Boston, Bloomberg
U.K. inflation came in hotter than expected with a drop to 2.3% in April, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday, prompting traders to pull back from bets on a June interest rate cut from the British central bank. Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, dipped to 3.9% in April from 4.2% in March. A dramatic drop in the headline rate was widely expected because of the year-on-year decline in energy prices. Investors were instead set to focus on core and services inflation, after BOE policymakers indicated they would be willing to cut interest rates some time in the summer, but stressed that the timing would depend on fresh data. Following the print, money markets slashed the probability of a June rate cut to just 15%, down from 50% earlier in the day.
Persons: BOE Organizations: National Statistics, Bank of England's, Reuters Locations: Russia, Ukraine, British, U.K
Wall Street will be keeping close watch on what Nvidia says about demand for its artificial intelligence chips when the market-moving chipmaker reports quarterly results after the bell Wednesday. Nvidia is expected to surpass expectations again, with analysts polled by LSEG calling for earnings of $5.59 per share on $24.65 billion in revenue. "As long as it tops analyst expectations, NVIDIA is likely to remain a key tailwind for the overall U.S. stock market." NVDA 1Y mountain Shares over the last year For multiple quarters, Nvidia has shocked Wall Street with the robust demand for its tools. "We continue to expect a strong beat-and-raise quarter from NVIDIA as Hopper demand remains robust before the Blackwell transition," wrote Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore.
Persons: they've, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Hopper, Blackwell, Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore, Piper Sandler's Harsh Kumar, Rosenblatt's Hans Mosesmann, Baird's Tristan Gerra, Tom O'Malley, Baird's Gerra, Nvidia's Blackwell, America's Vivek Arya, Arya, Timothy Arcuri, Rosenblatt's Mosesmann, O'Malley, Morgan Stanley's Moore Organizations: Nvidia, NVIDIA, Blackwell, Barclays, Bank, America's, UBS Locations: Nvidia's
A real estate construction site in Wanxiang City, Huai 'an City, East China's Jiangsu province, May 17, 2024. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's sweeping moves on Friday to increase support for real estate will take time to show results, analysts said. Despite the news, S&P is still sticking to its base case from earlier in the month that China's property market is likely still "searching for a bottom," Edward Chan, director, corporate ratings, said during the firm's webinar on Monday. But he pointed out that for real estate to see significant stabilization, homebuyers' demand and confidence will need to improve after a market downturn of nearly three years. "We believe Beijing is headed in the right direction with regard to ending the epic housing crisis," Nomura's Chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a report Monday.
Persons: Huai, Edward Chan, Ting, Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Chief China Economist Hui Shan, Ting Lu, P's Chan Organizations: Future Publishing, Getty, BEIJING, Chief China Economist, China Locations: Wanxiang City, City, East China's Jiangsu, Hong Kong, Beijing, Ting Lu, China
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesLONDON — U.K. inflation could be about to hit a major milestone, with some forecasting that a sharp fall in the April print will take the headline rate below the Bank of England's 2% target. That would represent a plunge from the current level of 3.2% and could "make or break" a June interest rate cut, economists say. Ashley Webb, U.K. economist at Capital Economics, said that if the headline rate does fall below 2% in April, as he expects, it would be "momentous." "This will be crucial in determining whether the first interest rate cut from 5.25% will happen in June (as we expect) or in August. We think inflation will fall further, perhaps even to 1.0% later this year," Webb said in a Friday note.
Persons: Ashley Webb, What's, Webb, , BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, BOE, Ben Broadbent, James Smith, ING's Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of England's, Capital Economics, Bank of England, European Central Bank, ING Locations: Kingston, London, U.K
Related storiesDimon warned against dismissing inflation and elevated interest rates as temporary headwinds. "That's a different world for real estate. It's a different world for assets. It's a different world for private credit. In his shareholder letter this year, he called out market complacency toward the threats of inflation, interest rates, and recession.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, largesse, I'm, Dimon, Warren Buffett, there's, It's Organizations: Service, AlphaSense, Business, JPMorgan, Wall Locations: Ukraine, Gaza, Russia, China, It's
This old technology getting some fresh attention is a trend investors may not want to miss: Heat pumps. Heat pumps provide both air conditioning and heat — all in one device. Heat pumps could play a viable role in this regard," Muhedini said in a research note last week. The DOE also runs a Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Technology Challenge , which is partnered with Trane, Carrier, and Johnson Controls, among other leading heat pump makers. In the chemicals sector, companies that produce more eco-friendly refrigerants for heat pumps could one day reap the benefits of recent legislation in the U.S. that will ban next year the production of heat pumps that use refrigerants with high levels of global warming potential.
Persons: hasn't, They're, William Thompson, Amantia, Muhedini, Thompson, Johnson, Jefferies, Stephen Volkmann, Trane, Andrew Kaplowitz, Deane Dray, Dray, Lennox, Owens, It's, they've, Nestle Organizations: UBS, McKinsey, Barclays, United Nations, UN, International Energy Agency, Johnson Controls, Carrier, Solutions, Citi, Wednesday, U.S . Department, DOE, Trane, RBC Capital, Johnson, Companies, Rockwell Automation, Honeywell International, Arkema, Unilever Locations: industrials, U.S, Paris, Trane, Monday's, Spain, Switzerland
Read previewGet ready for a recession that hammers consumers, squeezes companies, and drags down stocks, a veteran economist warned. "There is a very high probability of a recession," Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler's chief global economist, told WealthTrack in a recent interview. Whenever that many states have recorded significant increases in joblessness in the past, there's been a nationwide recession, she noted. AdvertisementSeveral parts of the economy are "really, really struggling," Lazar continued. "If we have a recession, inflation will slow," she said.
Persons: , Nancy Lazar, Piper, WealthTrack, Lazar, you've, You've, Lazar said, there's, They've, I'm, I've Organizations: Service, Cornerstone Macro, Business, Fed Locations: joblessness
The White House decided to delay by two years tariffs on graphite, a key metal in EV lithium-ion batteries that helps them store energy. But a senior Biden administration official said during a call with reporters that some tariffs would kick in in 2026 to allow battery supply chains to transition. However, those batteries can still source graphite from China until at least 2027 under the Biden administration's policy. Beyond graphite, other tariffs that Biden slapped on China's green tech are mostly symbolic. But steeper taxes on batteries this year could affect US automakers such as Ford and Tesla, which import from China.
Persons: Joe Biden, Gene Berdichevsky, Berdichevsky, Sila, EVs, Biden Organizations: Service, White, Business, US Department of Energy, Mercedes, Benz, Manufacturing, Biden, Environmental Defense Fund Locations: China, Washington ,, Moses Lake , Washington, Southeast Asia
McDonald's is set to offer a $5 value meal in the U.S., but only for a limited time. "We know how much it means to our customers when McDonald's offers meaningful value and communicates it through national advertising. That's been true since our very beginning and never more important than it is today," McDonald's said in a statement to CNBC. CNBC last week reported the fast-food giant was working to bring a value offering to menus, with details being discussed and voted on by franchisees. McDonald's recently reported a mixed first quarter, with U.S. same-store sales slightly missing expectations.
Persons: That's, McDonald's, Chris Kempczinski, John Palmaccio, — CNBC's Amelia Lucas Organizations: CNBC, U.S, National Advertising Fund Locations: U.S
Biden’s tariff plan likely won’t move the needle for monetary policy, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. “Consumers and producers often pay higher prices when tariffs are implemented.”That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately, consumers. Worse, some businesses appeared to take advantage of the trade war by bumping up prices even higher. Container shipping imports from China to Mexico rocketed higher by 60% in January and 34% for the first quarter, Xeneta data shows. “It’s obvious that imports to this extent are not only for domestic purposes in Mexico,” he said.
Persons: Biden, Joe Brusuelas, Donald Trump’s, Trump, , Ryan Sweet, ” Sweet, Sweet, George W, Bush, Barack Obama, Goldman Sachs, , Wells, Nicole Cervi, “ There’s, ” Cervi, Peter Sand, , Sand, “ It’s Organizations: CNN, RSM US, stoke, Oxford Economics, Biden, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Federal, , US International Trade Commission, New, New York Fed, National Bureau of Economic Research, Republican, ramped, Container Locations: China, New York, , South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Wells, Mexico
A farmers holds cocoa beans while he is drying them at a village in Sinfra, Ivory Coast, on April 29, 2023. Cocoa prices dropped more than 19% on Monday, giving up a large part of the strong gains that lifted them to all-time highs earlier this year. Prices last traded at around $7,175, after dropping about $1,700 per metric ton. Earlier in the year, cocoa futures hit a record of $11,722 per metric ton. Cocoa prices soared this year amid a shortage of cocoa beans due to supply disruptions, including heavy rains and disease.
Locations: Sinfra, Ivory Coast
He was 13 when he first heard about trading stocks. Finally, he filters for volume with the "50-day average volume"— the average number of shares traded daily over 50 days — above 25,000 shares. He had been watching Nvidia's chart since December, and it had a consistent 200-day moving average trend upward. As of January 3rd, it held above its 50-day moving average, bouncing off resistance points around $8.83 and $8.94 with minor pullbacks. The stock had a strong 150- and 200-day average uptrend.
Persons: Leoš, Benjamin Graham's, William O'Neil, Mark Minervini, Norman Zadeh, Mikulka Organizations: Investor's, Gamestop, US, Business, Apple, Nvidia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Holdings Locations: Prague, IBD
McDonald’s is working to introduce a $5 value meal
  + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Kate Rogers | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
McDonald's is working to introduce a value meal in U.S. stores to help offset an increasingly challenging environment for consumers, two people familiar with the matter told CNBC. The value meal was first reported by Bloomberg News. The potential new offering comes at a time when low-income consumers are beginning to pull back on spending, particularly at fast-food brands. Mentions of low-income consumers on company earnings calls are at their highest levels in nearly two years, according to data from Bank of America. An initial proposal by McDonald's for the $5 value meal did not clear necessary hurdles, and additional details are now being discussed, according to a person familiar with the process.
Persons: McDonald's, Dave, Buster's, Chris Kempczinski, Kempczinski, Ian Borden, — CNBC's Amelia Lucas Organizations: CNBC, Bloomberg News, Bank of America, McDonald's, U.S Locations: U.S
Home prices are falling in parts of Florida and Texas even as they soar nationally. Sale prices only dropped in 15 of 221 metro areas last quarter, and five were in those states. High prices, steeper mortgage rates, and supply catching up with demand help explain the declines. AdvertisementHome prices are falling in parts of Florida and Texas as buyers tap out and supply catches up with demand. AdvertisementThe takeaway is that a combination of sky-high prices, steeper mortgage rates and other costs like insurance squeezing buyers' budgets, and supply catching up with demand has resulted in prices flatlining or falling in parts of Florida and Texas, bucking the national trend.
Persons: , Fort Myers, Redfin, Coral Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, Fort, Fort Walton, Austin, Rock, NAR, Panama City, Homeowners, Federal Locations: Florida, Texas, Panama City, Crestview, Fort, San Antonio, New Braunfels, Lac , Wisconsin, Illinois, Kankakee, Rockford, Champaign, Urbana, Austin, Panama
Disney Why we own it: We value Disney for its best-in-class experiential entertainment Parks business, which has proven to have immense pricing power. In the second quarter, the combined business — Disney+, India's Disney+ Hotstar, Hulu and ESPN+ — saw losses of $18 million, far better than the $659 million loss in the year-ago period. DTC profitability benefited from Disney+ core subscriber growth, higher retail subscription prices, increased advertising revenue on the back of higher impressions, and lower distribution costs. Clearly, Disney still has a big opportunity in sports as they execute on their DTC streaming strategy for ESPN. The atmosphere at the Disney Bundle Celebrating National Streaming Day at The Row in Los Angeles on May 19, 2022.
Persons: , Nelson Peltz, wouldn't, Hugh Johnston, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Presley Ann Organizations: Club, Revenue, LSEG, Disney, Parks, ESPN, Comcast, Netflix, Warner Bros Discovery, Paramount Global, CNBC, seasonality, Entertainment, Hulu, Hulu Live, Sports ESPN, College Football, National Football League, Walt Disney World, Disney Cruise, Disneyland, Hong Kong, Getty Locations: Hulu, India, Florida, California, Hong, Los Angeles
In 2017, at 19 years old, Jack Kellogg became interested in stock trading. AdvertisementIn 2023, he took advantage of the AI hype by trading stocks within that theme. He then reviews these stocks' price movements over the previous three to two weeks. Where it's set depends on how much he's willing to risk on each position and varies based on the stock's price movements. While he's agnostic about the stock's cap size, he favors swing trading mid and sometimes small-cap stocks.
Persons: Jack Kellogg, Timothy Sykes, Kellogg, Kellogg wasn't Organizations: Business, BI, Trust, Nvidia, CXApp Inc
Stocks hit a rough patch after the Club's March Monthly Meeting as Wall Street grappled with increasing odds of higher-for-longer interest rates. Here are our five top-performing stocks since the March Monthly Meeting. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date performance Wells Fargo led the way, with shares jumping 5.8% over the period. GOOGL YTD mountain Alphabet (GOOGL) year-to-date performance Alphabet stock rose 4.9% since the March Monthly Meeting, placing the Google parent in second place on the gainers list. EL YTD mountain Estee Lauder (EL) year-to-date performance Estee Lauder stock added 2.7% since the March Monthly Meeting, occupying the fourth spot on our list.
Persons: Stocks, Wells Fargo, Jim Cramer, Wells, Jim, he's, Lauder, Estee Lauder, Estee, Fabrizio Freda, Freda, Jim Cramer's, Dow, Spencer Platt Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Club, Google, Big Tech, Palo Alto Networks, Bank of America, Citigroup, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Wells, buybacks, Palo, Alto, New York City
Mortgage holders are shelling out a record $2,800 on average to cover their monthly payments. The median monthly mortgage payment has jumped 11% over the past year to hit $2,775 for the four weeks ended April 14, Redfin data shows. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked to a five-month high of 7.4% this week, per Mortgage News Daily. That has driven 30-year mortgage rates from about 3% at the start of 2022 to more than 7%, which has caused monthly mortgage payments to spike. The result is that consumers face a double-whammy of painful price increases and steeper monthly interest payments.
Persons: , Barbara Corcoran, Bill Pulte Organizations: Service, Mortgage
ASML earnings drag semiconductor stocks lower
  + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Kif Leswing | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Chip stocks fell on Wednesday after ASML, a key developer of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, said that bookings fell by 61% sequentially during the first quarter, a steeper drop than investors had expected. During trading on Wednesday, AMD's stock fell over 4%, Nvidia shares fell about 3%, Intel shares fell nearly 2% and Qualcomm was off 2%. But the biggest drop affected chip technology firm Arm , which was trading nearly 10% lower on Wednesday. ASML fell over 8% on a day when the entire S&P 500 index was only down less than 1%. ASML also said that it expected that government subsidies for chip factories, such as the CHIPS Act in the U.S., would boost its sales.
Persons: Carl Zeiss ZMT, ASML, Peter Wennink, Wennink, Christophe Fouquet Organizations: Nvidia, Intel, Qualcomm, Samsung, Apple Locations: Taiwan, South Korea, U.S, China
CNN —Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni says surrogacy is “inhuman” and is backing steeper penalties against the practice, including fines of up to $1 million and multiple-year prison sentences. “I continue to believe that surrogacy is an inhuman practice,” Meloni said at a conference ‘For a Young Europe: Demographic Transition, Environment, Future’ in Rome on Friday. Meloni’s comments against surrogacy fall in line with the views held by the Catholic Church. “The demographic challenge, and the economic sustainability to which it is connected, is one of the main challenges for us,” she said. The move to criminalize surrogacy is largely seen as a move against the LGBTQ+ community.
Persons: Giorgia Meloni, Meloni’s, , ” Meloni, , Pope Francis, Organizations: CNN, Catholic Locations: Italy, Europe, Rome,
The result was a 1.5-percent weekly drop in the S & P 500 , with Friday's setback exacerbated at least somewhat by a collective clenching-up of risk markets on some geopolitical worry. This dynamic hasn't been reversed, but the signal has grown a bit staticky, draining some conviction from the macro bullish case with the S & P 500 still 24% above the October low. Bull market's backdrop First, it's a bull market, and not a particularly mature or excessively generous one yet. Yet both stocks are still outperforming the S & P this year. The S & P 500 closed Friday at exactly the same level of five weeks earlier, on March 8 – which was perhaps the moment of maximum investor confidence in the "we can have it all" thesis.
Persons: I've, Jerome Powell, Powell, Wall, it's, We're, John Butters, Fastenal, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, ICE, Treasury, CPI, Fed, Grainger, Citi
New York CNN —Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group are in free fall. Trump Media is now trading below $31. Trump owns a dominant stake of 78.8 million shares in the company, which generates little revenue and is losing users. At the closing high for Trump Media’s stock price, the former president’s stake was valued at $5.2 billion. Trump Media disclosed losing $58 million in 2023 on very light revenue of just $4.1 million.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, , Shannon Devine, Capital’s Matthew Kennedy, Billionaire Barry Diller, ” Shannon Devine, it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Trump Media & Technology Group, Trump Media, Nasdaq, Trump, Big Tech, ” Trump Media, CNN, Expedia, People Magazine, IAC, CNBC Locations: New York
400,000 Men at each age 200,000 Age: 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95Can Ukraine Find New Soldiers Without Decimating a Whole Generation? Healthy men under age 30, the backbone of most militaries, are part of the smallest generation in Ukraine’s modern history. Mr. Zelensky’s decision to draft men starting at age 25 risks further diminishing this small generation of Ukrainians. But the lower draft age risks shrinking a small generation even more. And in occupied areas of the country Russia is conscripting Ukrainian men to fight against Ukraine, starting at age 18.
Persons: Volodymyr Zelensky, birthrates, thein, , Oleksandr Gladun, it’s, , Serhiy Hrabsky, Gladun, Organizations: Boys, United Nations, Ptukha, Social Studies, European Union, Eurostat, Ukraine Locations: Ukraine, United States, Soviet Union, Russia, Europe
The banking giant is expected to report earnings of $4.15 per share and $41.84 billion in revenue, according to LSEG. Many analysts also anticipate an upward revision to net interest income guidance, with the firm already forecasting $90 billion for the full year. Graseck views JPMorgan as one of the best-positioned stocks for upward net interest income revisions, also highlighting its significant excess capital relative to others within the firm's coverage. What else to watch If not during earnings, this upward guidance adjustment to net interest income could occur at JPMorgan's investor day in May, she said. Another key figure some analysts are watching is earnings from First Republic, which the company took over in May 2023 .
Persons: JPM, Piper Sandler's Scott Siefers, Morgan Stanley's Betsy Graseck, Graseck, Goldman Sachs, Richard Ramsden, America's Ebrahim Poonawala, Erika Najarian, NII, Wells, Mike Mayo, Ramsden Organizations: JPMorgan, Wall Street, Management, Bank, America's, First Locations: buybacks, First Republic, Republic
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