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☆ The Fed will only cut rates when it's panicking over a recession and a market crash, Black Swan investor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should be wary of coming Fed rate cuts, Black Swan investor Mark Spitznagel warned. That's because the Fed is only cutting rates in response to a weakening economy, Spitznagel told Reuters last week. The US could see a recession and major stock crash before rates head lower, he predicted. That's because the Fed is only likely to ease monetary policy when the economy is slammed with a recession and the market is flailing, according to famous "Black Swan" investor Mark Spitznagel. "There are lag effects when you reset interest rates like we had."

Persons: Black Swan, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, —, Swan, Nassim Taleb Organizations: Reuters, Service, Federal Reserve, Universa, Federal, National Association of Business Economics, Investor

☆ The stunning strength of the US economy means the soft landing may already be here, Evercore founder says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy may have already stuck the soft landing, according to Evercore founder Roger Altman. AdvertisementThe US economy may have successfully avoided a recession and is already gliding toward a soft landing, according to Evercore founder Roger Altman. AdvertisementThose are big reasons stocks remain buoyant despite a sell-off this week as markets repriced expectations for Fed rate cuts. "Everything by and large is going right in the US economy," Altman said, noting that inflation is usually sticky as it falls from a peak. Arguably, the soft landing already has happened."

Persons: Roger Altman, Altman, —, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, CNBC, Atlanta Fed, Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, The New, Fed, National Association for Business Economics Locations: —

☆ Yet another inflation gauge came in hot for February
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —Rising energy prices helped to fuel yet another hot inflation reading for February. A closely watched gauge of US wholesale inflation rose at its fastest pace in months, according to new data released Thursday. While a seasonal energy price surge is at the root of the gain, the latest Producer Price Index is yet another reminder of the arduous process to rein in inflation. The hot PPI report comes two days after a similar reading from the Consumer Price Index, a closely watched gauge of inflation at the retail level. Core PPI rose 0.3% for the month, a slowdown from the 0.5% jump in January.

Persons: Price, we’ve, ” Kyle Anderson, ” Organizations: CNN, PPI, of Labor Statistics, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business, ”, BLS

☆ Nearly everyone has given up on their recession call, and that makes the outlook 'dangerously reminiscent' of 2007, SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recession views are dangerously similar to those in 2007, SocGen's Albert Edwards said. Soft landing or no landing outlooks are growing on Wall Street as the US appears on solid economic footing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Those signs appear lost on many other market commentators, who have dialed back their recession views in the last few months. "All this is (dangerously) reminiscent of 2007, when all around were telling me I was wrong and should give up calling that much-delayed recession," he later added.

Persons: SocGen's Albert Edwards, Edwards, —, Société, Albert Edwards, That's, Doom, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, Chicago, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, National Federation of Independent Business, National Association of Business, Fed, Investor Locations: York

☆ Now comes the hard part for the Fed to achieve its goal of getting inflation to 2%
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Core services costs excluding housing services — "supercore" inflation, as it has become known — remain elevated but at least the pace of increase, at 0.5%, has eased. "The 'last mile' problem for the central bank is the inflation in service prices, which is partly attributed to the tight labor market in sectors such as healthcare, leisure, hospitality, and construction. "This type of inflation, often termed 'cost-push inflation,' may not react straightforwardly to changes in interest rates." "Wage growth was significantly slower, the labor market wasn't as tight," PNC's Faucher said. "It wasn't that long ago, but it was a different economy than it is now, with some of those [current] post-pandemic effects of the tight housing market and the tight labor market."

Persons: Gus Faucher, Dow Jones, Sung Won Sohn, PNC's Faucher, Faucher, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, That's Organizations: Federal, PNC Financial Services, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Fed, JPMorgan, Monday

☆ A bigger pool of American workers could continue to slow inflation even further
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Now, as the Federal Reserve faces the final stretch of its historic inflation battle, a bigger pool of workers could slow inflation even further. That then begs the question: How much more can better labor supply slow inflation? The US Labor Department releases January figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended March 2. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases February inflation data.

Persons: Mary Daly, “, ” Sarah House, Michael Gapen, That’s, Jack Bantock, ’, ”, Richard Felton, Thomas, ’ ”, Patrick Harker, Ross, Nordstrom, Michael Barr, Campbell Soup, Foot, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, National Association for Business Economics, Labor, CNN, Bank of America, White House’s Council, Economic Advisers, English Premier League, Chelsea, Burnley, Philadelphia Fed, Target, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, Abercrombie, Fitch, Financial Services, The Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Broadcom, Costco, Eagle Outfitters, Potbelly, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, European Central Bank, Cleveland Fed, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, San, Wells, United States, London, JD.com, Kroger, Burlington, DocuSign

Mortgage rates jumped up last week following the release of some hotter-than-expected inflation data. Once it looks clearer that inflation is coming down to the Fed's 2% target, mortgage rates should ease. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThis week's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.77%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates inched down to 6.12% last week, according to Freddie Mac data.

Persons: Mary Daly, agilely, Daly, Price, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, they've Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Association for Business, San Francisco Fed, Index, Fed, Zillow Locations: Chevron

☆ Stubborn inflation means the Fed will be cutting rates less than the market thought
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

If nothing else, the January inflation report released Tuesday finally appears to have convinced markets that Federal Reserve officials weren't kidding around when they said they will take a deliberate approach to cutting interest rates this year. Following the consumer price index report showing the year-over-year reading well ahead of the Fed's desired inflation goal, markets recalibrated their monetary policy expectations. The Fed "faces a challenging task in balancing economic growth and employment while trying to control inflation," he added. Indeed, the narrative of the Fed being able to start cutting early, and moving rapidly through the year, was all but dead Tuesday. The January CPI report is a "setback for the Fed and makes a May rate cut unlikely.

Persons: Ditto, —, it's, Sung Won Sohn, Dow, Jerome Powell, Jason Pride, there's, Powell, Matthew Ryan, Krishna Guha, Guha Organizations: Federal Reserve, CME, Labor, CPI, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Dow Jones, US2Y, CBS, Bank of America, Citigroup, Fed, Evercore ISI

☆ The Fed can still break markets. Here’s how
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Those gains came even as Federal Reserve officials attempted to reduce investors’ lofty expectations for a plethora of interest rate cuts this year. It is now signaling that interest rates could come this year but not until spring or summer. That means they think the Fed is keeping interest rates too high and could potentially slow down economic growth too much and risk a recession. That makes the NFL and the Super Bowl all the more valuable to advertisers trying to reach a mass market. Li-Lac Chocolates, which calls itself the oldest chocolate shop in Manhattan, told CNN that their raw chocolate prices are up 13% this February compared to a year ago.

Persons: Torsten Slok, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Olivier Darcy, Sunday’s, CNN’s John Towfighi, ”, Michele Buck Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Investors, Nasdaq, Federal, Apollo Global Management, National Association for Business, Atlanta Fed, CNN, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, CBS, Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, NFL, Allegiant, NFC, Fox, AFC, Super Bowl, Companies, Hershey Co Locations: New York, There’s, Las Vegas, West Africa, North America, Manhattan

WASHINGTON (AP) — Just a quarter of business economists and analysts expect the United States to fall into recession this year. But respondents to a National Association of Business Economics survey released Monday still expect year-over-year inflation to exceed 2.5% -- above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target – through 2024. But the economy unexpectedly kept growing and employers kept hiring and resisting layoffs despite higher borrowing costs. The Fed has stopped raising rates and has signaled that it expects to reduce rates three times this year. Another 85% are worried about political instability in the United States before or after the Nov. 5 presidential election.

Persons: –, ’ ’, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac Organizations: WASHINGTON, National Association of Business Economics, Fed Locations: United States, China, U.S, Taiwan

☆ Extreme greed is back on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

That’s all heralded the return of extreme greed to Wall Street. The S&P 500 is up 2.6% and the Dow is 0.6% higher. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both on pace to score their sixth-straight winning sessions. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index, which tracks seven indicators of market sentiment in the United States, tipped into “Extreme Greed” this week, marking a stunning turnaround from just a few months ago, when the index was in Extreme Fear territory. The idea of a soft landing (when inflation rates ease and the economy avoids recession) is likely playing a big part.

Persons: we’re, ”, Lydia Boussour, “, Christopher Waller, Bill Gates, Henry Allen, Allen Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Gross, Commerce Department, Consumer, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Fed, ” Financial, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Investment, Deutsche Bank, Big Tech Locations: New York, United States

☆ The US economy ended 2023 with a bang
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter. After real GDP surged 4.9% in the third quarter, the latest point suggests still strong growth. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.3% per the news release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Persons: —, Steve Rattner, Willett, Rattner Organizations: Service, National Association for Business Economics, Willett Advisors, Bloomberg, Labor Statistics

☆ Premarket stocks: why over-optimistic investors may want to pump the brakes
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

There’s plenty for investors to celebrate right now, but a look under the hood reveals quite a bit of decay. But it’s largely Big Tech that’s driving markets higher, and that concentration of gains in so few stocks carries inherent risk. But investors are adjusting expectations: Investors eventually get used to strong data, and come to expect it. “It’s hard for data to keep surprising in the same direction, since investors simply adjust their expectations,” said Allen. Just one month ago, more than 75% of investors thought the central bank would cut rates at their March meeting.

Persons: Bell, Debbie Downer, Wall, Dow, Germany’s DAX, Henry Allen, ”, Allen, Christopher Waller, That’s, Bill Gates, Larry Fink, Chris Isidore, “ I’m, Scott Kirby, they’ve, ” Kirby, Boeing Max, Max, Kirby, “ We’re, Samantha Delouya, Amy Reinhard, Netflix’s, “, we’ve Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nvidia, Microsoft, Investment, Deutsche Bank, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, University of, National Association of Business Economics, University of Michigan, Fed, ” Financial, BlackRock, Boeing United Airlines, Boeing, United, CNBC, Alaska Airlines, Federal Aviation Administration, United Airlines, Refinitiv, Max, FAA, Netflix Locations: New York, Europe

☆ A key indicator shows Americans' financial stress is mounting
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

LegalShield's Consumer Stress Legal Index showed consumer financial stress is continuing to rise. LegalShield on Tuesday said its Consumer Stress Legal Index rose to 66.7 in December, up by 0.4 points from the prior month, showing that US consumers' financial stress is at its highest level since November 2020. AdvertisementUS consumer financial stress has soared to its highest in three years. "The rise in consumer stress in contrast to increased spending may point to an even sharper rise in household debt in the coming months." The increase in consumers' financial stress comes even as GDP growth has stayed strong, the labor market remains robust, and holiday retail spending was high.

Persons: —, Matt Layton Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ A year ago most economists expected a recession. Now 91% say otherwise.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe vast majority of economists see a recession as unlikely in the next year, according to the latest survey from the National Association of Business Economics. New results out Monday showed 91% now assign a probability of 50% or less for a slowdown in the next 12 months. AdvertisementOnly 9% of respondents reported a recession being more likely than not, down from 18% in the previous survey. Since 1968, the recession indicator has gone eight for eight in preceding a recession.

Persons: —, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Campbell Harvey Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Business, The University of, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department

☆ NABE survey: Optimism on the rise
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNABE survey: Optimism on the riseCNBC's Steve Liesmen joins 'The Exchange' to report on the latest survey by the National Association of Business Economics.

Persons: Steve Liesmen Organizations: National Association of Business Economics

☆ Here’s where to invest $50,000 in the new year, according to the pros
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-01 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 rose 24% in 2023, ending the year just shy of a record closing high. The highest S & P 500 target on the Street calls for 8.7% upside from Thursday's close. A fund with exposure to small and midcap semiconductor stocks is the SPDR S & P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) . Exposure to this space can be obtained through the SPDR S & P Health Care Equipment ETF (XHE) . For these investors, Bailey likes Berkshire Hathaway , calling it a counter-cyclical sitting on a ton of cash.

Persons: Larry Adam, Raymond James, Robert Kaplan, Steven Wieting, Wieting, there's, Mike Bailey, — Bailey, Bailey, They're, Berkshire Hathaway, Eli Lilly, they're, Jack Ablin, Ablin, Rowe Price Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, CNBC Pro's, Survey, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas Federal, CNBC, Bank of America, Fed, CNBC Pro, Citi Global Wealth, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, P Semiconductor, P Health Care, FBB Capital Partners, Corporate, Aggregate Bond, Berkshire, Essex Property Trust, Federal Realty Trust, Rowe Price Group Locations: Essex

☆ As world leaders gather for COP28 one question looms - who will pay for the green transition?
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Jennifer Steinmann | Pradeep Philip | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The path to financing the world's transition to green energy remains unclear. Financing the green energy transition is a trillion-dollar question. AdvertisementThe Deloitte Financing the Green Energy Transition report outlines some core financial levers, starting with a fundamental financial principle: the riskier the project, the higher the cost of capital. The report estimates that getting this right could ultimately reduce financing costs by around $50 trillion by 2050. So, what are the associated risks, and what steps can we take to mitigate them and, consequently, reduce financing costs?

Persons: Jennifer Steinmann, Pradeep Philip Organizations: Service, Deloitte Global Sustainability, Economics Locations: Dubai

NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide. Political Cartoons View All 1277 ImagesHigh rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. Expectations are split among economists on when the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates, something that can relieve pressure on the economy and act like steroids for financial markets.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, ” Ellen Zentner Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, University of Arkansas, Nationwide, Federal, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ This key US inflation gauge fell last month by the most since 2020
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The Producer Price Index, which measures the average price changes that businesses pay to suppliers, fell 0.5% on a monthly basis. It’s the largest monthly drop since April 2020, when the rapidly spreading Covid-19 virus caused a sharp economic contraction. When stripping out the volatile food and energy categories, core PPI was unchanged for the month, bringing the yearly increase to 2.4%. On Tuesday, the October Consumer Price Index showed that US consumer prices were unchanged for the month, contributing to a slowdown in the annual inflation rate to 3.2%. “Fed officials are getting to keep their cake and eat it too, so far with economic growth and inflation cooling.

Persons: Price, ”, Chris Rupkey, Andrew Butters, “ There’s, ” Butters, we’ve Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, FwdBonds, “ Fed, CPI, Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Fed, CNN Locations: Minneapolis

☆ Gen Zers are saying 'no thanks' to promotions for reasons that go beyond money
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Tim Paradis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Gen Zers aren't eager for promotions, partly because they believe management is unfulfilling. Gen Zers crave support, clarity on goals, a realistic career path. But actually, that's not the dream of many Gen Zers. For many Gen Zers, it can be easy to look at their managers and think, "No, thanks." The consultancy also found that Gen Zers think meaningful work is just as important as workplace flexibility when they're considering a job opportunity.

Persons: Zers aren't, Zers, —, that's, Emily Rezkalla, Rezkalla, she'd, Zers —, it's, Pradeep Philip, Philip, Gen, we've, they're, Rod Thill, he's, Thill, TikTok Organizations: Service, Deloitte, Economics, McKinsey

REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 7 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan on Tuesday said she supported leaving the Fed's policy rate on hold last week to assess if financial conditions are sufficiently tight to bring down inflation, while pointing to recent signs the fight was not yet won. "We're going to continue to need to see tight financial conditions in order to bring inflation to 2% in a timely and sustainable way," Logan said. "I'm going to be looking at the data and I'm going to be looking at financial conditions as we get closer to the following meeting." That view was one main reason the Fed opted to keep the policy rate in its current 5.25%-5.50% range last week. "We have seen some retracement in that 10-year yield and financial conditions, and so I'll be watching to see whether that continues and what that means for the implications of policy," Logan said on Tuesday.

Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Franklin Paul, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve Bank, Dallas, National Association for Business Economics, REUTERS, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, Thomson Locations: Dallas , Texas, U.S

☆ Gen Z is forcing a workplace reckoning that should have happened years ago
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-05 | by ( Tim Paradis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Gen Z, on the heels of the pandemic, is pushing for changes to how we work. Workers across generations are benefitting from some of the questions Gen Z has been asking. AdvertisementAdvertisementThanks, Gen Z. Gen Zers aren't likely to get everything they're asking for — at least not right away. And even workplace jargon — that code for showing you belong because you know how to toss it around — is getting a Gen Z rewrite .

Persons: Gen Z, —, Zers aren't, Pradeep Philip, Philip, That's, Nicole Kyle, Zers, Brynn Anderson, who've, Alex Soojung, Kim Pang, Pang, we've, Read, Zer, Gen Organizations: Workers, Service, Deloitte, Economics, CMP Research, United Auto Workers, Detroit, UPS, Associated Press, UAW, didn't Locations: America

☆ The US economy added 150,000 jobs last month. Here’s what that means
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN —For several months now, the US labor market has been on a cooling trajectory, and Friday’s jobs report made that even more apparent. The US economy added 150,000 jobs last month, falling below expectations but still notching a solid month of employment growth, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. October’s job growth came in below September’s stronger-than expected but downwardly revised total of 297,000 jobs. Including the estimated 150,000 jobs added last month and the downward revisions to August and September that totaled 101,000 jobs, the United States is averaging 239,000 jobs gained per month so far this year. Where the jobs were — and weren’tBecause of the timing of the striking actions and how the BLS tracks such activity, October is the first jobs report that reflects the massive strike.

Persons: ”, Sung Won Sohn, Nancy Vanden Houten, Jerome Powell, Gus Faucher, Dante DeAntonio, ” DeAntonio, “ It’s, ” Ger Doyle, ManpowerGroup, Amy Glaser, we’ve, “ We’re Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, of Labor Statistics, SS Economics, Loyola Marymount University, United Auto Workers, Ford, General Motors, UAW, Big, Federal Reserve, Fed, Oxford Economics, BLS, PNC Financial Services, Government, Moody’s, ”, CNN, “ Locations: Minneapolis, United States, Southern California

☆ The Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged. Here's what that means for your wallet
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

watch nowThe Federal Reserve left its target federal funds rate unchanged for the second consecutive time Wednesday. What the federal funds rate means for youThe federal funds rate, which is set by the central bank, is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. To a certain extent, many households have been shielded from the brunt of the Fed's rate hikes so far, House said. As the federal funds rate rose, the prime rate did as well, and credit card rates followed suit. If the 10-year yield stays near 5%, federal student loan interest rates could increase again when they reset in the spring, costing student borrowers even more in interest.

Persons: Brett House, that's, Sung Won Sohn, Sohn, bode, Greg McBride, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's, Tiffany Hagler, Bankrate, Jacob Channel Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Columbia Business School, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Treasury, Geard, Bloomberg, Getty, Auto Locations: Larchmont , New York

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