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But both inflation and economic growth have upside and downside risks relative to consensus. AdvertisementOn inflation, Arnott believes it's far more likely that it surprises to the upside. AdvertisementTo take advantage of these asymmetries in the market, Arnott said that value stocks and TIPS are two investments that would perform well in a higher-inflation environment. One way investors can gain exposure to these assets is through funds like the iShares Core S&P U.S. Value ETF (IUSV), the Schwab U.S. More specifically, value stocks within both developed and emerging markets are trading in their "cheapest decile ever" compared to growth stocks, Arnott said.
Persons: , Rob Arnott, Arnott, it's, there's, I've, I'm Organizations: Service, Treasury, Securities, Business, Research Affiliates, Federal Reserve, Value, Schwab, MLP, Funds, Equity Locations: Schwab U.S
The major averages hit record highs in May, with the S & P 500 breaking above 5,300 for the first time. Historically, the summer months prove to be less robust for the S & P 500. July is typically a standout month, however, with the S & P 500 posting a 3.27% increase on average. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 has added more than 11% in 2024. The S & P 500 tech sector averages a flat performance for June going back a decade.
Persons: It's, — CNBC's Christopher Hayes Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, CNBC, Tech, Technology, Nvidia
Don't overlook the the financial sector as the stock market trends higher, according to Oakmark Funds portfolio manager and noted value investor BIll Nygren. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 40,000 for the first time on Friday, while both the Nasdaq Composite and S & P 500 entered Monday after four-week-long rallies. Despite the financial sector outperforming the broader market, banking and consumer finance stocks are cheaper compared to all S & P 500 companies, according to Nygren. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) , which tracks the S & P 500 financials index, has returned 12.6% in 2024, including reinvested dividends, while the S & P 500 has returned less than 11.8%. His portfolio's top holdings include some of the country's largest banks, such as Citigroup and Wells Fargo , as well as regional banks like First Citizens .
Persons: BIll Nygren, Nygren, CNBC's Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Citigroup Locations: Wells Fargo
One AI model that is built to help investors pick winners in the stock market has grown confident in the near-term upside for a mid-sized energy stock. Some of the data sources that feed into the iFi AI model include macroeconomic updates, news articles, fundamental company data and technical trading indicators. The AI model is bullish on more energy stocks than just Marathon, as Southwestern Energy also makes the cut. One potential momentum play from the iFi AI list is Vertiv , whose share price has more than doubled in 2024. The CEO of iFi AI, which launched in March , is CNBC senior analyst and commentator Ron Insana.
Persons: Ai, Ron Insana Organizations: Oil, Southwestern Energy, CNBC Locations: Marathon, LSEG, The Ohio
XLU 1M mountain Utilities stocks have risen sharply in May. Woodard identified other ETFs and stocks that could benefit from increased energy consumption and investment in the electric grid. Miners should retain pricing power given constrained capacity after a decade of underinvestment," the Bank of America note said. Bank of America is positive on the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) , which offers exposure to both physical uranium and miners. Bank of America did not include a utilities ETF in the note, but the firm has a buy rating on Xcel Energy, among such stocks.
Persons: Jared Woodard, Woodard, ruddy, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America . Investment, Utilities, Bank of America, Miners, Companies, VanEck Oil Services, Halliburton, Uranium, Xcel Energy Locations: Freeport, McMoRan
"We should be anticipating higher highs in the market," Lundgren, the chief market strategist at MOTR Capital Management & Research and a portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, recently told Business Insider. The 28-year market veteran's upbeat sentiment is more widespread now than last fall, when the S&P 500 struggled mightily before a powerful end-of-year surge. There can be negative or positive stretches within an established bull or bear market, Lundgren noted. Only one of the ETFs tracking Lundgren's preferred sectors has beaten the S&P 500 (in dark blue) since late last summer. When adjusting for market cap, cyclicals have fared much better and have bested the equal-weight version of the S&P 500 in several cases.
Persons: , David Lundgren, Lundgren, he'd, we've Organizations: Service, MOTR Capital Management & Research, Little Harbor Advisors, Business, Yahoo Finance, Yahoo
Two U.S.-listed ETFs — the SPDR S & P Metals & Mining ETF and VanEck Steel ETF — and the Japan-listed NEXT NOTES Japan Equity High Beta Select 30 ETF have each risen more than 10% every year since 2019. SPDR S & P Metals & Mining ETF The SPDR S & P Metals & Mining ETF (ticker: XME) gives investors broad exposure to the metals and mining segment. The VanEck fund has outperformed the S & P 500 in four of the past five years. NEXT NOTES Japan Equity High Beta Select 30 The NEXT NOTES Japan Equity High Beta Select 30 ETF (ticker: 2068.T-JP) is a smart beta ETF. High beta stocks react with more volatility than the rest of the market.
Persons: SPDR, It's Organizations: CNBC, P Metals, Mining, VanEck Steel, , Japan, CNBC Pro, Mining ETF, VanEck, NEXT, Nomura Japan Equity Locations: U.S, Japan
Strategist Mislav Matejka said equities are coming up against a seasonally weak period and advised investors buy traditionally defensive stocks such as utilities and staples. "The latest market move to a more Defensive trading should have legs, such as recent outperformance of Utilities and Staples." "We continue to believe that will happen irrespective of bond yields direction from here, alongside a more positive performance of commodity sectors - Energy and Mining," he said. XLU 1M mountain Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) Utilities have outperformed quarter to date, while most other sectors have shown weakness. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) advanced 4.7% this quarter, making it top performing sector in the S & P 500.
Persons: Mislav Matejka Organizations: JPMorgan, Stocks, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Utilities, Staples, Energy, Mining, NRG Energy, NextEra Energy, Communication
The U.S. economy is flashing a sign that's favorable for dividend stocks, according to Bank of America. In this environment, investors want to own dividend stocks with above-market yields, she said. For those characteristics, she looks to quintile two of the Russell 1000 by trailing dividend yield. Her screen guards against owning distressed companies that might move into the first quintile, the highest dividend yield group, if prices fall ahead of potential dividend cuts. APA has a 3.1% dividend yield, while HF Sinclair yields 3.5%.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Russell, Jeffrey Martin, CNBC's Jim Cramer, John Christmann Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, AES, APA, Sinclair, Callon Petroleum, CNBC, Citigroup, Citi Locations: U.S
Aging population plays In developed markets with aging populations , health-care needs will rise, creating an investment opportunity in the sector, Li said. "The relative outperformance of the health-care sector is to be expected in the context of an aging population," Li said. It tracks the health-care sector of the S & P 500 . "An economy-wide, sustained productivity boom is very hard to achieve, especially in the context of the supply constraint coming from, among other things, demographic shortage, aging population," Li said. "If India is able to bring more people into the working population, especially women, that will significantly boost its growth trajectory," she said.
Persons: Wei Li, dwindles, BlackRock, Li, It's, it's Organizations: BlackRock, World Health Organization, United Nations, Healthcare, Bank Locations: BlackRock, Japan, U.S, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, India, China
The energy sector has pulled up from behind to overtake nearly every other sector of the market this year and may still have room to advance, according to analysts. The energy sector has gotten a lift as crude oil prices are on a tear this year after plummeting in the last quarter of 2023. The refiners Marathon Petroleum , Phillips 66 and Valero also hit all-time highs on Friday. Diamondback Energy is trading at all-time highs Monday dating back to its IPO in October 2012, while ConocoPhillips is at levels that have not been seen since November 2022. "We think it's a theme that has more to go as well," Ginsberg said of the energy sector rally.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, it's, Rob Ginsberg, Brent, Iran teeter, Ginsberg, Valero Organizations: Energy, BTIG, Exxon Mobil, Wolfe Research, Fund, JPMorgan, OPEC, refiners, Petroleum, Phillips, Diamondback Energy, ConocoPhillips Locations: Ukraine, Israel, Iran, Occidental
The move higher for energy stocks comes as West Texas Intermediate crude oil approaches the mid-2022 highs of $88.31 per barrel. Theoretically, one can make bullish bets on oil using an ETF, such as the United States Oil Fund (USO) . However, I would caution against using this as an investment vehicle to make a long-term bullish bet on oil. SPR decline As the chart below illustrates, the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined sharply in the lead-up to the 2022 midterm elections – keeping oil prices in check. The total cost of the spread risks just under 4.4% of the current stock price.
Persons: It's, Brent, Biden, Kinder Morgan Organizations: West Texas, United States Oil Fund, USO, country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Halliburton, Schlumberger, Valero, Marathon Petroleum, Marathon, MPC Locations: Marathon
Energy could be a hot trade this summer, according to Robert Schein, chief investment officer at Blanke Schein Wealth Management. That, in turn, would bode well for shares of energy stocks, Schein said. "I think energy could be the story of the summer," Schein told CNBC Pro. But the ETF rallied more than 57% in 2022, even as the S & P 500 tumbled more than 19%. XLE .SPX YTD mountain The XLE vs. the S & P 500 this year Schein said energy has begn to break out after being "left behind."
Persons: Robert Schein, bode, Schein, Hightower Organizations: Wealth Management, CNBC, Energy, Fund, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, LSEG Locations: of Baltimore, The California
Multiple stocks are lagging the market this year, but Wall Street says don't write them off yet — they could soon be due for a turnaround. With this in mind, CNBC Pro screened for stocks in the S & P 500 that might be positioned for a rebound this year. Shares were down 2.3% in 2024 thru the open Wednesday March 27, but the average price target implies around 22% upside potential, according to FactSet. Match was also highlighted as one of Goldman Sachs' favorite asset-light stocks earlier this month. According to the consensus analyst price target, the stock could rise 20.1%, per FactSet.
Persons: financials, Goldman Sachs, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC Pro, UnitedHealth, Caesars Entertainment, LSEG, Lines
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. But Jim Smiegel, the CIO at $1.4 trillion SEI, thinks the stocks' run could be over soon. Tesla shares are down 32% since December, while shares of Apple are down 14% over the last few months. Historically, higher interest rates hurt growth stocks with higher valuations. 2 areas to look insteadSmiegel listed two areas of the market that look more attractive to him at the moment: energy and financials.
Persons: , Meta —, Jim Smiegel, Smiegel, There's Organizations: Service, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, SEI, Business, Federal, CPI, Vanguard
Select dividend stocks could help boost investors' portfolio returns as the U.S. economy continues to improve, according to Bank of America. Investors should seek out companies with above-market dividend yields that are secure, not stretched, Subramanian advised. Among the energy names on the list is Chevron , which has a 4.2% dividend yield. The stock has an average rating of overweight and 14% upside to the average analyst price target, according to FactSet. Meanwhile, with Fifth Third Bancorp , investors can enjoy a 3.8% dividend yield.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Russell, Michael Wirth, CNBC's Organizations: Bank of America, Investors, Chevron, American Electric Power, Consolidated Edison, Utilities, Fifth Third Bancorp, Bancorp, Essex, Hotels, Resorts Locations: U.S
April 15 is the deadline for taxpayers to file their income tax returns and pay sums owed for 2023. MLPs themselves aren't subject to federal income taxes, but limited partners owe taxes on the income distributed. MLPX has a total return of 7.6% in 2024, and MLPA's year-to-date total return is 9.3%, according to Morningstar. In 2024, IYK has a total return of nearly 4.7%, while XLU's total return is about 0.7%, according to Morningstar. MFM's total return this year is 3.66%, and NZF has a total return of 3.4% in 2024, according to Morningstar.
Persons: Jared Woodard, Woodard, , MLPX, IYK, Morningstar, XLU, NZF Organizations: Bank of America, MLP & Energy Infrastructure, X MLP, Morningstar, Consumer Staples, Income Trust, Income Locations: MLPs, Indonesia, America, Nuveen
U.S. crude oil futures might be showing signs of a break out after topping $80 this week, though some analysts caution against reading too much into the move. The move higher came after the International Energy Agency forecast a crude supply deficit this year and Ukraine attacked several oil refineries in Russia. U.S. crude performed the same pattern this week, wiping out and closing above last week's intraday high of $80.67. U.S. crude has also held above its 200-day moving average of $78.13 a barrel almost all month, he said. As the market enters a supply deficit this year, Riyadh could start rolling barrels back on the market, Melek said.
Persons: Matt Maley, Miller, Tom Fitzpatrick, R.J, O'Brien, WTI, Brent, Fitzpatrick, Maley, Malley, Bart Melek, Melek, We're, Carter Worth, It's, it's, Worth Organizations: West Texas Intermediate, International Energy Agency, SPDR, Energy, TD Securities, U.S, Worth Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Saudi, Riyadh, U.S, United States
The utilities sector is living in the shadows of mega-cap tech, but a power player name is emerging — and it's toting year-to-date gains of more than 40%. Constellation Energy , headquartered in Baltimore, is the top winner in the utilities sector in 2024, with NRG Energy in a distant second place with a 22.7% advance. Indeed, the utilities sector and real estate are the two laggards of the S & P 500 , down about 1% and 3.5% in 2024, respectively. CEG XLU 1Y line Constellation Energy versus the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund over the past year Constellation, which currently has a dividend yield of 0.8%, isn't your father's utility. So-called 24/7 carbon-free power involves purchasing electricity generation from the same region where a corporate client will use it.
Persons: it's, CEG, James Thalacker, It's, Daniel Eggers, Sophie Karp, BMO's, Joseph Dominguez, Steve Fleishman, Ross Fowler Organizations: Constellation Energy, NRG Energy, Utilities, SPDR Fund, BMO Capital, Atlantic City Electric, Baltimore Gas and Electric, Delmarva Power, Constellation, Microsoft, Wolfe Research, Republican, UBS Locations: Baltimore, Virginia
This prompted us to investigate the group further, which revealed that various stocks are sporting constructive technical formations. Restaurant stocks charts showing strength McDonalds (MCD) has had a wild ride over the last 10 months and now sits at the same price level that it was trading at last April — eleven months ago. MCD isn't the only restaurant stock that's sporting an attractive technical pattern. On the weekly chart, Restaurant Brands International (QSR) looks very similar to MCD, having formed its own inverse-head-and-shoulders formation over the last year. While this is no indication of what could happen now to MCD, YUM and QSR, it shows how breaking through multi-year resistance can attract momentum.
Persons: that's, , Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Brands, Texas
That's one of 10 investing predictions for the next 10 years by the Trivariate Research market strategist. "We have always said 'we prefer a basket of high-quality US growth equities'" when asked about crypto, Parker said in a note over the weekend. "Missing the appreciation of the asset class is not good, but participating in US growth equities has been more than adequate." "Because it is just a proxy for risk taking, investors can mirror the exposure of a basket of crypto through low quality hyper growth stocks," he added. "This sector checks all the boxes … We think there will be continued consolidation, so owning oil-sensitive energy stocks that are mid-cap likely will prove prudent," he said.
Persons: Adam Parker, That's, Bitcoin, Parker Organizations: Trivariate Research, Metrics, Own U.S, Mining, BHP Group, Microsoft, BHP, Vale, Southern Copper, Marathon Petroleum, Treasury, U.S . Treasury Locations: CRE, New York, San Francisco, Chicago, decarbonization, Freeport, McMoRan, Australia, Rio Tinto, Greece, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal
"Investors have registered $195mn of outflows from HY muni ETFs over the past year while piling $3,130mn into long duration US Treasury bond funds. … In our view, Treasury bond ETFs have too much inflation risk and will continue to underperform Prudent Yield credit assets. Municipal bonds are debt issued by state and local governments whose interest payments can be tax-free for investors. But municipal bonds look relatively safe within that group, according to Bank of America. Bank of America's top-rated municipal bond ETFs include the SPDR Nuveen Bloomberg High Yield Municipal Bond ETF (HYMB) and the VanEck High Yield Muni ETF (HYD) .
Persons: Jared Woodard, Woodard, munis, HYMB Organizations: Bank of America, HY muni, , Federal Reserve, Bank of America's, Bloomberg, ETF, Muni Locations: HY
A frenzy around AI-adjacent stocks fueled the sector to robust gains: the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) was up 43%, and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) was up 56%. And yet, in addition to outperforming the broader market, Ivana Delevska’s Spear Alpha ETF (SPRX) managed to smash its peers in the tech sector. The fund was up 88% on the year and beat 99% of similar funds, according to Morningstar data . We were like the only ones buying it at the bottom, it really felt totally abandoned,” Delevska told Business Insider. 3 AI stocks to buyThe first is chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA).
Persons: Ivana Delevska’s, , , ” Delevska, Delevska, they’re Organizations: Nasdaq, Technology, Alpha, Morningstar, Business, Citadel Asset Management, Nvidia, Palo Alto
As megacap tech stocks continue to fuel the rally on Wall Street, investors appear to be betting even more heavily that the big run for those market leaders will continue. Between the start of December and Feb. 2, tech sector funds brought in about $5.2 billion — more than double the next closest sector — according to Strategas. In fact, cumulative flows into all other sector funds combined have been net negative over the past three months. Not all tech sector funds will include every member of the Magnificent 7. The biggest health care sector funds on the market include the Health Care Select SPDR Fund (XLV) and the Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) .
Persons: Todd Sohn, " Sohn, Sohn's, Chris Verrone, Verrone Organizations: Nvidia, Vanguard Information Technology, Apple, Microsoft, Vanguard Health Care
Advertisement"I don't want to doubt this market," Salama said. Stocks will pause soon but still have upsideFollowing a brief consolidation period in early January, the S&P 500 has taken off again and set a streak of record highs. Chances are, the S&P 500 will top out around current levels of 4,900, Salama said. Even if the S&P 500 takes a hit, Salama doesn't think it will be down for long. Within the consumer discretionary sector, Salama expressed interest in e-commerce, cloud computing, and media powerhouse Amazon ( AMZN ).
Persons: , John Salama, wasn't, Salama, we've, Stocks, It's, Salama doesn't, Russell, he's Organizations: Service, Business, Dow Jones, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Devices, Apple, AMD, Communication, Healthcare Locations: what's
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