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A Ukrainian soldier called Russian tech support after a captured Russian tank wouldn't start, per Forbes. Ukraine has been capturing and repurposing Russia's tanks for their own use. AdvertisementAdvertisementA Ukrainian officer decided to call Russian tech support for help when he ran into issues operating a captured Russian tank. In the second half of the video, Kochevnik made a call to what he claimed was Uralvagonzavod director Andrey Abakumov. You can see an entire unit composed of nothing but captured Russian tanks," said Kofman, who was speaking at an event hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Persons: , Kochevnik, Forbes, Aleksander Anatolevich, Anatolevich, Andrey Abakumov, Abakumov, Jakub Janovsky, Michael Kofman, Kofman Organizations: Forbes, Service, YouTube, Militarnyi, Oryx, Russia, The Center, Naval, Carnegie Endowment, International, Russia's Ministry of Defense Locations: Ukrainian, Russian, Ukraine, Netherlands, Russia
Russia's Vladimir Putin will host North Korea's Kim Jong Un in Vladivostok, reports say. But North Korea's shoddy weapons may not be effective, say analysts. Ben Wallace, the former UK defense secretary, meanwhile accused Putin of "begging" for outdated North Korean weapons in his desperation to secure new weapons supplies. But analysts believe that North Korea's weapons are in a shoddy state, and are unlikely to make a decisive impact in Ukraine. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Russia is looking to North Korea for a large quantity of conventional weapons rather than sophisticated ones," said Go.
Persons: Russia's Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin, Putin, Kim, John Everard, Ben Wallace, meanwhile, Michael Kofman Organizations: Service, North, BBC, UN, Financial Times, Asan Institute, Policy Studies, Russia, CNA Locations: Vladivostok, Wall, Silicon, Russia, Ukraine, North Korea, Moscow, Iran, Korea, Korean, Yeonpyeong, US, Seoul
Last weekend, an apparent drone strike destroyed a prized Russian Tu-22M3 Backfire bomber. The attack occurred far from the front lines of the war and may have been launched from inside Russia. The strike on a vulnerable Tupolev Tu-22M3 Backfire bomber is part of a growing list of Russian failures to protect its critical bases and vital aerial assets. If that's the case, it may speak to both Ukraine's expanding ability to threaten domestic Russian air bases and Russia's inability to protect them. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn the aftermath of the Tu-22M3 attack, there's a question of how Russia might adapt.
Persons: — Engels, Samuel Bendett, they're, Bendett, ALEXANDER NEMENOV, It's, Ukraine Anton Gerashchenko Organizations: Service, Russian Defense Ministry, Aviation, Center for Naval Analyses, Russia, Russian Aerospace Forces, NATO, Russian Defence Ministry, Kremlin, Nazi, Getty, Internal Affairs, Mobility Artillery, Systems Locations: Russian, Russia, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, St . Petersburg, Saratov, Ryazan, Moscow, Novgorod Oblast, Russia's, Nazi Germany, AFP, Murmansk, Finland
Waterborne drones are an inexpensive asset, giving Ukraine an "asymmetric" naval edge against Russia. Russia blamed Ukraine for using the drones to attack the Kerch Strait Bridge in Crimea on Monday. Waterborne drones are also inexpensive and devastating, and there are indications they were used to damage a key Russian bridge into Crimea. An anonymous source from Ukraine's Security Service also confirmed to CNN that Ukraine's naval drones carried out the attack, as did a state official. "Ukraine exploited its [the Kerch Strait Bridge] vulnerability by launching relatively cheap and inexpensive USVs in what turned out to be a successful attack," Bendett said.
Persons: There's, Samuel Bendett, , Bendett Organizations: Service, Ukraine, Security Service, Ukraine's Security Service, CNN, Center for Naval Analyses, Russia, Kyiv, Getty Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Kerch, Crimea, Wall, Silicon, China, AFP, Moscow, Kyiv
Shocking images and videos show a destroyed Russian Il-22 command plane. Wagner Group forces are said to have shot down the plane during their revolt, killing the crew. Prigozhin said he regrets destroying Russian aircraft, but he argued they were attacking Wagner forces. The Ilyushin Il-22M aircraft — a valuable airborne command post operated by Russia's air force — was apparently shot down by Wagner Group forces during their revolt against Russian military leadership. Along with the Il-22 aircraft, Wagner shot down six Russian helicopters, killing 13 pilots in total, according to Ukraine, as well as expert observers, like Michael Kofman, the director of Russia Studies at CNA.
Persons: Prigozhin, Wagner, , Russia's, Franz, Stefan Gady, OSINTdefender, Michael Kofman, Prigozhin — Organizations: Wagner Group, Service, Ilyushin, Russian, Center for Naval, Defense, Russian ] Aerospace Forces, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russia Studies, CNA Locations: Russian, Ukraine
The humanitarian disaster of the burst dam may only amount to a setback for Ukraine's military. Even before the dam break, the Dnipro River was a formidable obstacle for Ukrainian forces. Ukraine might have chosen to avoid a risky river crossing anyway for their counter-offensive. Ukraine accused Russian forces last October of mining the Russian-controlled dam. Instead of crossing the Dnipro, another option for Ukraine is to attack east of the river entirely.
Persons: , Michael Kofman, Kofman Organizations: Service, Institute for, Russia, CNA, Twitter, Russian Locations: Dnipro, Ukraine, Nova, Kherson, Russia, Ukrainian, Zaporizhia, Ukraine's, Russian, Crimea
Ukraine's Western partners are short on weapons and can't make them fast enough to meet Kyiv's needs. Experts told The Washington Post that NATO countries have been too slow to manufacture munitions. Countries are facing dwindling stockpiles and can't manufacture weapons fast enough to support Kyiv's ambitions to launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces, according to the Washington Post. Defense experts told the Washington Post that many of Ukraine's NATO partners — especially European nations — haven't mobilized their defense industries to meet battlefield needs for artillery, tanks, air defense systems, and ammunition. Germany offered the fast and lethal Leopard tanks to Ukraine in January, followed by US Abrams tanks that have a record of shattering Soviet-era armor.
Russian and Wagner troops opened fire on each other in Luhansk over an argument, Ukraine says. The soldiers and mercenaries had been blaming each other for their mistakes in the war, per Ukraine. "As a result, a fight between Russian Armed Forces and PMC Wagner mercenaries broke out in the settlement of Stanytsia Luhanska recently." It's thus unclear whether the alleged firefight represents wider conflict or discipline issues among Russian forces on the frontline. However, multiple reports have documented Russian troops being plagued by friendly fire in Ukraine, though the Kremlin rarely acknowledges any of these incidents.
For a military at war, it's a challenge to get the right gear to the right troops at the right time. Western countries have scrambled to deliver that gear to Ukraine, overcoming political debates and logistical hurdles, but getting it to the frontlines presents a whole other problem. Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu Agency via Getty ImagesThe restricted operational environment makes Ukraine's logistics that much harder. Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu Agency via Getty ImagesFurther complicating the situation is the fact that the Ukrainian military is a dynamic force. Many Ukrainian troops are also rotating through the US and European countries for training.
Russian aircraft, some operated by mercenaries, are also being used in fighting around the city. Yet the Russian Air Force is still conducting airstrikes with limited success, including around Bakhmut. Russian aircraft "are bombing in Bakhmut, particularly at night so that they can avoid most types of MANPADS. A retired Russian air force general named Kanamat Botashev may have been one of them. In addition to its other struggles, Russia's air force has been plagued by a shortage of fully trained pilots.
Ukrainian troops are rationing their shells as they face ammunition shortages, The Washington Post reported. Western allies are struggling to keep up ammunition production to aid the country. "The current rate of Ukraine's ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production," he added, saying allies should invest and expand in the ammunition production for Ukraine. While the Biden administration promised to send Ukraine over 200,000 rounds of artillery, rockets, and tank rounds, the US is facing extremely high production shortages, Insider reported. Similarly, the European Union has created a plan to send one million rounds of ammunition but is facing challenges in meeting Ukraine's needs.
The US and its NATO partners have provided Ukraine with heaping military aid to start the year. But after the next round of fighting with Russia, Ukraine could find itself hamstrung by support. With more intense fighting on the horizon, there are doubts about whether Western countries will be able to maintain that level of support. "However this offensive goes, Ukraine is going to lose personnel, it's going to lose equipment, and it's going to spend a lot of ammunition," Kofman said. After a future offensive, Ukraine's military will have to replenish its stocks of artillery ammunition and replace its troop losses.
How Russia’s Offensive Ran Aground
  + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Josh Holder | Marco Hernandez | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +15 min
But within months of the invasion, Russia’s rapid advances ran out of steam, even as it narrowed its ambitions and focused on eastern Ukraine. No Russian gains No Russian gains No Russian gainsIn September 2022 Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in September 2022. No Russian gains No Russian gains No Russian gainsIn October 2022 Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in October 2022. Russia captured the small salt-mining town. Kurdiumivka Soledar Kurdiumivka Soledar Russia captured the small salt-mining town.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of Russia's Wagner Group, has been highly visible during the war in Ukraine. Prigozhin frequently casts his mercenary group as fighting on its own, without Russian military support. Indeed, Prigozhin has claimed over the past few months that Russia's military — the real military — is sabotaging Wagner's efforts. But Wagner is actually working closely with Russia's regular forces, which are supporting Wagner's fighters, according to a US expert on the Russian military. Misha Japaridze/Pool/ReutersThe dispute between Prigozhin and Russian military leaders was widely cast as a struggle between power centers seeking influence with the Kremlin.
Western countries are hustling to deliver main battle tanks to Ukraine's military. Tanks will be useful in taking on Russian tanks and fortifications in a counterattack this spring. But Ukraine needs other armored vehicles to counterattack Russia effectively, one expert says. "There is a lot of mechanized infantry and tank brigades in each" corps that Ukraine is forming, Kofman said. Without the ability to build bridges strong enough to bear the weight of armored vehicles, a Ukrainian offensive would stall.
That includes T-80 tanks captured the 1st Guards Tank Army, an elite Russian armored unit. But Russian tanks are designed for Russian forces, and Ukraine might get limited use out of them. No wonder Western observers have been thrilled by reports of Ukraine capturing hundreds of Russian tanks and turning them against the invaders. "You can see an entire unit composed of nothing but captured Russian tanks." Interestingly, Kofman believes Ukraine doesn't need tanks as much as it needs armored vehicles to carry infantry into battle.
The bloody battle of Bakhmut continues to wage as Russia and Ukraine both face mounting losses. Ukrainian losses in Bakhmut could hinder a more strategically critical counteroffensive in the future. Yet, despite the resources committed to the battle from both sides, Bakhmut remains a minimally-important city, strategically speaking. "The best estimates we have are that the Russian military and Wagner Group are a spent force," D'Anieri said. A tank carrying Ukrainian soldiers who have returned from the frontline passes along a street in Chasiv Yar, Ukraine.
UK intelligence suggests Russia's new offensive is on its last legs, just a month after it began. Russian forces have depleted their "combat power," the assessment said. "Even local offensive actions are not currently sustainable," it added. The British Defense Ministry said this is likely because Russian forces have depleted their "combat power" to such a degree that "even local offensive actions are not currently sustainable." There's been an evolving debate between Kyiv and its Western partners over Ukraine's insistence on continuing to defend Bakhmut, which analysts have suggested could fall to Russian forces in the coming days.
Russia has spent nine months trying to capture Bakhmut in a slow and brutal campaign. Experts say the city does not even have that much strategic value. Ukrainians fighting in the city say it has been a "living hell" for months, while commanders on both sides have called the battle a "meat grinder." But ultimately, experts say, the city may not be important enough to justify the effort and expense Russia has put into it. A map showing the location of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has replaced the commander leading his forces in Ukraine just three months after he handed him the job. He previously led Russian forces in Syria and was accused of overseeing a brutal bombardment that destroyed much of the city of Aleppo. Britain’s defense ministry called Gerasimov’s appointment “a significant development” in Putin’s approach to the war. Although it has little intrinsic value, it lies at a strategic point around 6 miles north of the city of Bakhmut, which Russian forces are aiming to surround. Taking Bakhmut would disrupt Ukrainian supply lines and open a route for Russian forces to press toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, key Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk province.
HIMARS destroyed Russian positions and depots, allowing Ukraine to retake a huge swath of territory. But Russian forces adapted and were able to limit HIMARS' effectiveness in fighting around Kherson. It was initially devastating, but Russian forces eventually learned how to cope with it, according to two US defense experts. GPS-guided rockets fired from the truck-mounted mobile launcher destroyed Russian headquarters and especially ammunition dumps, which helped curtail Russian artillery fire. Ukraine had access to US intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance "that played an important role, but due to political parameters was untouchable by Russia," Kofman said.
KYIV, Ukraine — Russian control of the key southern Ukrainian city of Kherson appeared increasingly in doubt Thursday after officials suggested that the Kremlin's troops would withdraw from the west bank of the Dnieper River. Civilians remaining in Kherson city should leave immediately as they are putting their lives in danger, he added. The dam holds back an enormous reservoir and controls the water supply to the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. Ukrainian forces have targeted the main river crossings for months, making it difficult for Russia to supply its huge force on the river’s west bank. Yurii Sobolevskyi, the deputy head of Ukraine’s Kherson regional council, remained cautious about the Russian forces’ intentions.
Seeking to save lives and equipment, Russian military commanders asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to retreat from Kherson. Dismissing on-the-ground commanders' pleas for soldiers to retreat, Putin has decided to remain in Kherson, a major Southern city in Ukraine, the last in Russian control, The New York Times reported Saturday. As such, the Russian president has immersed himself further into the strategic planning of the war, countering some of the wishes of Russian forces on the ground. Earlier this month, Ukrainian forces retook most of Kharkiv, forcing Russian troops to flee or attempt to disguise themselves as locals. The move marked a major victory for Ukraine as the numbers of Russian troops are dwindling as their morale fades.
Experts said Putin wanted to avoid the move, but also wanted to bolster his military. The move could weaken support for Putin's regime as Russians are exposed to the reality of the war. The Russian president has found his forces short on manpower while Ukraine, on the other hand, ordered a full military mobilization within days of the invasion in February. "He's a master procrastinator," Michael Kofman, a military analyst of Russia studies at the Center for Naval Analyses told Puck's Julie Ioffe this week. Experts told Insider it could take weeks or months for Russia's partial mobilization to bear fruit, as the reservists need to be trained, equipped, and deployed.
Russia's military had close encounters with its US and European rivals in June. The incidents and exercises were messages about Russia's military capabilities, experts said. A Russian fighter jet flying past the Dutch frigate HNLMS Evertsen in the Black Sea on June 24. Russia's military drilled around Crimea throughout the end of June and early July, focusing on attacking the ships of "a notional enemy." Russian officials continue to call the HMS Defender incident a "provocation" and warn about future run-ins.
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