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☆ European stocks close mixed as investors assess U.S. jobs data, ECB signals
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

European markets closed mixed Friday, with investors digesting the European Central Bank's updated inflation forecast and new U.S. jobs data. The Stoxx 600 index provisionally closed 0.03% higher, with sectors and major bourses trading in mixed territory. German industrial output rose 1% in January, more than the 0.5% expected, new data showed Friday. Construction and manufacturing output also rose 2.7% and 1.1%, respectively. Revised euro zone statistics showed gross domestic product remained steady in the fourth quarter on 2024.

Persons: Europai Organizations: Royal London Group

LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Swiss insurer Baloise (BALN.S) is in talks to sell around 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) of life insurance policies in Belgium, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters. The efforts come as other traditional insurers sell non-core portfolios with a view to freeing up capital held against those liabilities. In 2020, the Swiss group purchased the non-life insurance operations of Apollo-backed Athora. Baloise saw premiums in its non-life insurance business grow by close to 6% in the first nine months of the year to 3.4 billion Swiss francs ($3.9 billion) globally. However, life insurance premiums dropped more than 4% to 2.9 billion francs during the same period, according to its latest earnings release.

Persons: Baloise, Pablo Mayo, Paul Arnold, Anousha Sakoui, Mark Potter Organizations: Baloise, Reuters, The, ING Groep, ING, Aegon, Royal London, Swiss, Apollo, Fidea, Pablo Mayo Cerqueiro, Thomson Locations: Belgium, The Basel, London, Zurich

Electronic boards showing stock information are pictured at the stock market, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, November 5, 2020. "Such an escalation could lead to increased oil prices, concerns about oil supply, and the potential for a global economic downturn." In the unlikely event the United States sends troops into the Middle East, Belote expected a $20 jump in oil prices, "if not more". "Israel has better relations with other Arab countries compared to then," JP Morgan private bank strategist Madison Faller said in a note, "and global oil supply is not as concentrated." Reuters Graphics5/ TECH JITTERSWhat's good for oil stocks can be bad for big tech.

Persons: Abdel Hadi Ramahi, Hamza Meddeb, Malcolm H, Brent Belote, Belote, JP, Madison Faller, Nadia Martin Wiggen, Alessia Berardi, Amundi's Berardi, Trevor Greetham, Morgan Stanley, Jeff, London's Greetham, Naomi Rovnick, Nell Mackenzie, Marc Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: United Arab Emirates, REUTERS, Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, Oil, JP Morgan, Svelland, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Reuters, Swiss, Royal, Aegon, Deutsche Bank, Aerospace, Thomson Locations: Dubai, United Arab, Israel, Gaza, Beirut, IRAN, Iran, U.S, United States, Arab, Turkey, Ukraine, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Suez, London

SINGAPORE/LONDON Oct 13 (Reuters) - Global shares slipped on Friday while assets considered to be safer havens such as gold and U.S. Treasuries rose as traders retreated from market risk as conflict in the Middle East intensified. MSCI's broadest index of global equities (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.3%, while Europe's Stoxx 600 share index (.STOXX) slid 0.4%. Brent crude oil futures jumped 2.7% on Friday to $88.29 a barrel, on track for a 4.3% advance this week. Spot gold gained 0.8% on Friday to $1,885 an ounce, set for a gain of 2.4% over the week. The risk-off mood also prevailed in the currency market, with the dollar holding on to most overnight gains.

Persons: Trevor Greetham, Treasuries, Ankur Banerjee, Naomi Rovnick, Edwina Gibbs, Susan Fenton, Kim Coghill Organizations: Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Middle, Gaza, Hamas, Ashkelon, Israel, Brent, U.S, Baltic, Asia, Japan, MIAPJ0000PUS

Benefiting from the highest interest rates since 2008, pension funds are better funded to meet future payouts than they have been in years. Because insurers hold a lot less government debt than pension funds, favouring higher-return assets such as corporate debt, they are expected to sell some of the gilts they receive. It is selling 240 billion pounds of debt this year, a record, save for 2020-21. Helped by the pension fund demand of past years, Britain's average debt life is around 15 years, more than double the U.S. and Germany's. Britain has already started skewing its funding towards shorter debt this year, citing high borrowing needs, a move investors reckon also reflects declining pension fund appetite.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, BoE, gilts, Chris Jeffery, Lane Clark, Peacock, Barry Kenneth, Van Lanschot, Arif Saad, Craig, Owen Davies, LGIM's Jeffery, Yoruk, Carolyn Cohn, Dhara Ranasinghe, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, Legal, General Investment Management, Fund, Investment, Royal London Asset Management, Investors, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: gilts, Germany's, Britain, Amsterdam, London

☆ Artificial Intelligence Steps In to Lower Carbon Footprint of Buildings
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Dieter Holger | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +5 min

Artificial intelligence is starting to help buildings go greener. Developers and construction companies have pursued more-efficient energy use in buildings over the past couple of decades. “We want to make every building out there as smart as it can be,” said Ramya Ravichandar, JLL Technologies’s vice president, technology platforms—smart and sustainable buildings. For instance, software and hardware that automatically manages lights, heating and cooling can help buildings cut 20% or more of their yearly energy use. “The main message overall is we’re not going to save the planet with software, and AI is software,” Smithies said.

Persons: JLL, “, ”, Ramya Ravichandar, ” Ravichandar, Thomas Kiessling, ” Kiessling, Greg Smithies, ” Smithies, Dieter Holger Organizations: International Energy Agency, Energy, Environmental, Envio Systems, Royal London Asset Management, JLL, London Asset Management, Siemens Smart Infrastructure, Siemens, Sustainable Business, Venture, Fifth, dieter.holger Locations: Turntide, Sunnyvale, Calif, Berlin, Birmingham, England

☆ For markets, BoE communication is bottom of the class
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank expectations have meanwhile risen only marginally. For investors, clear communication from central bankers is crucial as they transmit their policy to borrowing costs through markets. The BoE was the first major central bank to start hiking rates. In contrast, they have long bet on more hikes than the BoE's main forecasts have implied are needed to tame inflation, rates futures show. BoE messaging, suggesting a reluctance to hike, has made it "very difficult" to own gilts recently, he said.

Persons: BoE, Toby Melville, Shamik Dhar, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Schroders, Azad Zangana, Zangana, Liz Truss, Myles Bradshaw, Chris Jeffery, Jerome, Powell, Christine, Lagarde, it's, Craig, Yoruk, Dhara Ranasinghe, William Schomberg, John Stonestreet Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, Fed, ECB, of England, Traders, . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Bank of England's, Investors, Graphics, of England's, Reuters, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, U.S, Dhar

Data suggests recession risks remain high, but wages and U.S. and European interest rates are also still rising - so stick or twist? Here are five big calls investors are now making. Principal Global Investors chief global strategist Seema Shah said she maintained her view that government bonds would do well with recession still likely by year-end. Reuters Graphics4/ FRAGILE CHINASpluttering data, property market woes and meek economic stimulus have also busted new year bets of a Chinese mini-boom. Principal Global Investors' Shah said she still expected commodities to continue to struggle "because a combination of U.S. slowdown plus China slowdown should mean weak demand."

Persons: Bonds, Francesco Sandrini, Seema Shah, JP Morgan, Trevor Greetham, Florian Ielpo, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Morgan Stanley, Shah, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Alun John, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Reuters, Global Investors, Royal London Asset Management, Lombard, Swiss, Bank of America, Fed, FX, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: bitcoin, Europe's, British, tatters, Japan, CHINA

Consumer goods makers say the price hikes are necessary, and that they have taken a hit to margins over the past two years. Some companies such as Clorox (CLX.N) have even begun to ease off the hikes to protect sales volumes as input costs fall. "In the U.S. in particular, these pressures are more acute than in Europe," Janus Henderson portfolio manager Luke Newman told Reuters. U.S. consumer strength has begun weakening, "and that's bad news for the consumer companies," Barclays analyst Iain Simpson said. Still, cost inflation has chipped away at margins, which have broadly fallen 2-4 percentage points over the past two years for the consumer goods industry.

Persons: Janus Henderson, Luke Newman, Newman, Richard Marwood, Robert Klaber, Parnassus, Iain Simpson, Alvarez, Marsal, David Chavern, Stephanie Niven, Niven, Irene Jensen, Jensen, Thomas Joekel, Richa Naidu, Jessica DiNapoli, Matt Scuffham, Deepa Babington Organizations: U.S, Consumer, Reuters, Royal London Asset Management, Investments, Biden, Barclays, Procter, Gamble, Consumer Brands Association, Sustainable Equity Fund, Norges Bank Investment Management, Unilever, Reckitt, Investment, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S, Europe, San Francisco, United States

Another source inside Barclays' investment bank, talking anonymously because they are not authorised to speak to the media, said lower staff attrition at its technology and back office operations had started to worry cost-conscious managers. The BCG review could lead to layoffs, the source familiar with the review said, although no decisions have been made. Some top Barclays investors, however, told Reuters they would have misgivings about a plan to prioritise investment over capital distributions. But a recent shake-up at its investment bank has raised concern about Barclays' ability to compete amid a worldwide dealmaking slump. They are not valued properly together," said Alan Beaney, chief executive at RC Brown Investment Management, which has held Barclays shares since 2012.

Persons: C.S, shivers, Richard Marwood, Venkat, Edward Bramson, Richard Buxton, Alan Beaney, Elisa Martinuzzi, Mark Potter Organizations: Barclays, Boston Consulting, Reuters, Royal London Asset Management, Lehman Brothers, Jupiter Asset, RC Brown Investment Management, BNP, HSBC, Reuters Graphics Barclays, Jefferies, Thomson Locations: U.S, Africa

☆ Global markets in H1: Banks vs the machines
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Linking it all has been the relentless rise in interest rates, which was exactly what battered markets in 2022. But just that this time has been different due to an unshakeable view that the end of the cycle is near. A 12%, or $6 trillion, rally in value of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS), (.FTAWORLDSR) although it has been ominously top heavy. Thanks largely to ChatGPT, the AI boom has seen the 'Big Tech' giants enjoy a combined surge of 70%. There have also been around a total of 90 interest rate hikes this year by central banks globally versus just 17 cuts.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Lehman, Trevor Greetham, Gold, Viktor Szabo, Tayyip Erdogan's, haven't, bitcoin, Binance, Milla Savova, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tom Wilson, Rashmi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nikkei, LONDON, Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Netflix, Meta, Nvidia, Royal London Asset Management, Japan's Nikkei, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan's, Silicon Valley Bank, behemoth, UBS, Treasury, Wall, BlackRock, Commodities, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, El Salvador, Sri, Zambia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Argentina, Japan, Egypt, Nigeria, London

That threw a new curveball at UK markets, as just last week economists polled by Reuters had unanimously expected the BoE to raise by 25 basis points. I would not be surprised if we see a 50-bp rate rise from the Bank of England tomorrow." Other analysts said delivering a larger rate rise on Thursday risked further undermining the BoE's messaging. Bets on where BoE rate hikes might peak rose as high as 6% on Wednesday. The rise in yields hit UK housebuilders (.FTNMX402020), which were down as much as 3.1%.

Persons: BoE, Melanie Baker, Liz, Nick Rees, Richard McGuire, Rabobank's McGuire, Yoruk Bahceli, William Schomberg, Dhara Ranasinghe, Danilo Masoni, Alun John, Peter Graff Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Royal London Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wednesday's, MPC, FX, Monex, Rabobank, Sterling, Thomson Locations: Monex Europe

☆ UK homeowners brace for more mortgage pain as borrowing costs shoot up
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

London CNN —Existing and aspiring UK homeowners are bracing for a fresh wave of misery as a rise in benchmark borrowing costs threatens to push up monthly mortgage payments. The yield on the country’s two-year government bonds — which is used to set interest rates on mortgages — jumped to 4.87% on Tuesday. The figures have pointed to persistent inflationary pressures, increasing the chances of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and driving up gilt yields. “We’ve had to reflect that in our mortgage rates,” the spokesperson said. “[UK inflation] is a chronic problem, and it’s not something that you can deal with quickly.”

Persons: Liz Truss, Craig, Samuel Tombs, “ We’ve, Paul Dales, “, Truss, Henry Nicholls, ”, Ed Al Organizations: London CNN, Bank of England, Royal London Asset Management, CNN, Pantheon, UK Finance, HSBC, HSBC UK, Capital Economics, Reuters, Columbia Threadneedle Investments Locations: United Kingdom, Europe, United States

☆ Investing in AI: how to avoid the hype
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SummarySummary Companies AI boom brings fresh challenge for investorsAI-themed stocks highly valuedStick with big tech not AI stocks - investorsLONDON, May 26(Reuters) - Experienced tech investors are hunting for undervalued opportunities in an over-valued space. Investors are chasing exposure to generative AI, the technology run by ChatGPT that learns from analysing vast datasets to generate text, images and computer code. Businesses are trying to use generative AI to speed up video editing, recruitment and even legal work. GAM's Hawtin said he has also hunted out companies that provide the "picks and shovels," necessary for enabling new AI technology. Amazon's Bedrock service, for example, lets companies customise generative AI models rather than invest in developing them themselves.

LONDON, May 1 (Reuters) - Inflation in the euro area is too high for comfort, meaning markets expect the European Central Bank to deliver its seventh straight interest rate hike on Thursday. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates by on Thursday? Most analysts expect at least one more rate move after Thursday, even as the Federal Reserve looks set to pause its rate hike campaign. Market pricing suggests ECB rates will peak around 3.6% this year, and Belgium's central bank governor Pierre Wunsch says he wouldn't be surprised to see rates rise to 4%. Tuesday's bank lending should offer some clues but it might be too early to gauge the full impact of the March banking crisis on financing conditions.

☆ Exclusive: EU to push for its debt to be included in government bond indexes- official
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Index inclusion "is something we are discussing with market participants at the moment, while we are also doing our internal analysis," the official said, looking at how the EU fulfills index providers' criteria. EU bonds are included in broad bond indexes but inclusion in dedicated government bond indexes compiled by the likes of Bloomberg, JPMorgan or FTSE Russell would be a game changer, as trillions of dollars of investor funds tracking the indexes would effectively become forced buyers. Big investors are also calling for index providers to treat the EU as a government. The EU official noted the bloc has elements of a sovereign, such as a budget and at least indirect taxing powers through member states' contributions. Cosimo Marasciulo, head of fixed income absolute return at Europe's largest asset manager Amundi, said it was also calling for EU inclusion in government bond indexes.

☆ Wouldn't be surprised if we have to get a lot more defensive in the second half: Asset manager
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWouldn't be surprised if we have to get a lot more defensive in the second half: Asset managerTrevor Greetham of Royal London Asset Management discusses the economic outlook and the impact of the recent banking crisis.

☆ Analysis: After extraordinary rally, bonds' fate now with bank stability and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Alongside that dash for safe havens was a rapid repricing of rate-hike bets as banking turmoil raised financial stability risks, fuelling the rally in government debt. But coming so soon after markets had positioned for bigger U.S. rate hikes to tame inflation, bonds swung wildly. March's sharp drop in two-year yields followed a 59 bps jump in February. Two-year Treasury yields are down 24 bps this quarter, their biggest quarterly drop since the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. The likes of JPMorgan, BofA and Morgan Stanley, expect Treasury yields to end 2023 lower; others such as Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas expect a rise.

☆ Inflation shock puts Bank of England on course to raise rates again
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] A general view of the Bank of England (BoE) building, the BoE confirmed to raise interest rates to 1.75%, in London, Britain, August 4, 2022. Most economists had believed inflation was on course to fall steadily, after hitting a 41-year high above 11% in October. But Wednesday's data - showing inflation rising to 10.4% in February rather continuing its descent - immediately turned Thursday's announcement into an almost one-way bet on a quarter percentage-point increase in Bank Rate. As recently as Tuesday, investors were split almost 50-50 on whether the BoE would leave Bank Rate unchanged for the first time since November 2021. The European Central Bank last week stuck to its plans and raised rates by 50 basis points despite the Credit Suisse turmoil.

☆ UK inflation sucker-punches the BoE, while sterling bulls cheer
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

British consumer price inflation (CPI) rose to 10.4% in February from January's 10.1%, above all economists' forecasts in a Reuters poll and almost back to where it was in December. "Core CPI missed by 0.5% - that's one of the biggest, if not the biggest misses on CPI in the recent series of inflation data. "The market is going to be second-guessing (the BoE) right now - it's difficult to assume there's just one more rate hike left in the tank," she said. RLAM's Nicholl noted recent data, such as employment, business activity and manufacturing, had shown strength, and consumer spending has held up. Derek Halpenny, EMEA head of research for global markets at Nomura said January and February's combined annual inflation rate of 9.67% makes for a "mildly supportive" outlook for the pound.

"HSBC is Europe's largest bank, and SVB UK customers should feel reassured by the strength, safety and security that brings them," Britain's finance minister Jeremy Hunt said. The Bank of England said it had organised the sale to underpin confidence in the financial system and minimise any fallout for British technology firms. "This acquisition makes excellent strategic sense for our business in the UK," HSBC CEO Noel Quinn said in a statement. The Bank of England said SVB UK had a total balance sheet size of around 8.8 billion pounds. Other potential buyers for SVB UK had included Bank of London, which said on Sunday it had submitted a formal proposal.

Meanwhile, extremely wide forecasts for new public borrowing requirements make the outlook for government bonds uncertain. Here are the main budget predictions for UK stocks, gilts and the pound. However NatWest analysts flagged that the OBR will likely revise down growth forecasts for the next five years, making the outlook for interest rates finely balanced. Hunt will likely keep the budget "reasonably dull" after Truss's "mini-budget" sent sterling to its lowest on record, she added. Investors in UK stocks are already grappling with a wide valuation gap with U.S. equities.

Summary U.S. bonds set for worst month since SeptWild swings at start of year may continueLONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - March madness? After a euphoric January was followed by a somber February, with bonds and equities selling off as strong data renewed rate-hike bets, more wild swings could be next for world markets. February fallsData on Friday showing a key inflation U.S. gauge accelerated last month stoked rate hike bets. The ECB lifted its key rate by 300 basis points since last July to 2.5%. If upcoming data weakens, markets could resume their bullishness, Yardeni Research said.

☆ Rate jitters extend February flop for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, February 16, 2023. "The economic data has been much more resilient than we all thought (it would be) and we have to accept that." "A bear market rally driven by expectations that inflation would drop and interest rates would peak out may be over," said Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset at Royal London Asset Management. "The big call this year will still be (a) recession," he added, as "interest rates go higher," in a move that would eventually spark "an earnings driven bear market (that) hasn't started yet." New Zealand's central bank also raised interest rates by 50 bps on Wednesday to a more than 14-year high of 4.75%, flagging more monetary tightening to come.

☆ Analysis: The deep freeze over UK assets is thawing
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"This does suggest a possible inflection point in sentiment towards UK assets," said Nick Kissack, a UK portfolio manager at Schroders, which manages roughly $910 billion of client funds. "We saw extreme levels of risk aversion," in September, he added, while "the risk premium for UK assets has come down since." That, in short, is an outlook of higher global interest rates, weak growth and high inflation. Reuters GraphicsHowever, analysts expect the FTSE 100's rise to falter with a stronger global growth outlook combined with waning energy inflation. "The UK is the standout global economy where growth prospects have not improved," said Baylee Wakefield, multi-asset portfolio manager at Aviva Investors, who expects gilts to continue outperforming Treasuries.

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