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☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession shares 3 ways stocks resemble some of the biggest bubbles in history — and warns 2 'bona fide' recession signals showed up in May's jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Investors are currently reveling in the 'better', as an ongoing eight-month melt-up once again pushed the S&P 500 to fresh highs this week. But sooner or later, the 'worse' will come, warns David Rosenberg, the founder of Rosenberg Research, who famously called the 2008 recession while working as Merrill Lynch's chief economist. AdvertisementAnother sign the market is out over its skis is the performance divergence between the market cap-weight and the equal-weighted S&P 500 indexes. On June 12, the Dow underperformed the S&P 500 by 0.94%, one of only 71 trading days since 1982 where that's happened, according to Rosenberg's technical analysis consultant, Walter Murphy. AdvertisementIn addition to concerning market technicals, fundamentals could also be in a troubling place in the form of labor market weakness, Rosenberg said.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Rosenberg, Bob Farrell, Walter Murphy, Murphy, — Rosenberg, it's, Louis Fed, Piper Sandler Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Tech, Dow Jones, Dow, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Federal Locations: lockstep

☆ Economy has hit 'stall speed' and could weaken even further from here, says David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomy has hit 'stall speed' and could weaken even further from here, says David RosenbergDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research founder and president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the data that may have gotten Rosenberg's attention, how the jobs number will impact Rosenberg's view, and more.

Persons: David Rosenberg David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research

☆ The stock market rally is running on fumes as earnings growth can't keep up with sky-high prices, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is primed for a correction as equity valuations hit historically high levels, according to economist David Rosenberg. AdvertisementThe stock market is "primed for a correction" as earnings valuations hit historically high levels, according to economist David Rosenberg. That suggests that the expansion in the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings valuation multiple to 21x from 18x in October is getting stretched. Wall Street consensus for the S&P 500's 2024 earnings per share is $245, which is the same forecast today as it was in October, before the stock market staged a near-30% rally. AdvertisementThat has informed Rosenberg's consistently bearish view, but the economist did say that high valuations on their own do not mean the stock market can't go higher from here.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, —, " Rosenberg, Rosenberg's Organizations: Service

☆ 'This is where you start bear markets from': A notorious bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns stock-market conditions resemble a major peak more than any time in the last 100 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The gauge is shown below in green and red alongside S&P 500 price action in blue. Most strategists at major Wall Street banks, meanwhile, generally see the S&P 500 staying above 5,000 through 2024. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.

Persons: Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, he's, Hussman, —, it's, Warren Buffett, there's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, CPS, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Dynamics, bullish

☆ 'The higher they go, the harder they fall': A veteran bear says US stocks could crash 39% as earnings disappoint — but investors can manage risk by making these 10 moves now
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"And I sort of look at the stock market right now as that clown of the circus blowing up the balloon." That earnings multiple is based on future earnings prospects, the economy, and interest rates. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the yield curve steepens, he said big banks should bring opportunities. "There will be areas to dip your toes in, but not for the overall market," Rosenberg said. He's bullish on long-term bonds and gold as the Fed cuts interest rates.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, he'll, they've, It's, " Rosenberg, he's, He's Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity, Federal Reserve, Nikkei Locations: Japan

☆ 'We are still in a market bubble': A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns the S&P 500 is as vulnerable as it was before its 25% fall in 2022 — and shares 3 signs of hidden weakness
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Just because the current valuation backdrop isn't as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980." Rosenberg ResearchSecond, the S&P 500 is outperforming the HYG/TLT Ratio. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchAnd third, even tech stocks, which have been overwhelmingly supporting the S&P 500, appear to be running out of gas, Rosenberg said. The same goes for Paul Dietrich, the chief strategist at B. Riley Wealth, who says the S&P 500 could fall 49% when the current bubble pops. The bull market has thrown egg onto their faces again and again: since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 42%.

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☆ A surprise recession could strike after an unexpected jump in the unemployment rate, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

An unexpected rise in the unemployment rate suggests a surprise recession could hit the US economy, according to David Rosenberg. The unemployment rate is now 0.5 percentage points above its cycle low to 3.9%, which Rosenberg says is a worrying sign. Rosenberg's concern stems from the February jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly rise to 3.9% from 3.7%. AdvertisementBut the Sahm Rule isn't triggered until the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points or more above its low over the past year, not the absolute unemployment rate. But the rise in the unemployment rate is not the only factor concerning Rosenberg.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Claudia Sahm, isn't, Sahm, subsector

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns stocks look 'eerily similar' to how they did before their 25% drop in 2022 — and says the US economy is still heading for a downturn
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, —, Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI

☆ Funeral directors share 7 rules of etiquette and their biggest pet peeves they wish everyone knew
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Jen Glantz | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Insider asked funeral directors to share their top etiquette rules and common pet peeves that they wish more people knew. Keep the family room private before the funeralOftentimes, the close family will wait in a private room together before the funeral. Casey said guests should assume it isn't appropriate to visit the private family room before the funeral unless the family has said otherwise. Respect the funeral and the funeral homeDino Cantelmi , the owner and director of Cantelmi Funeral Home in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, says there are a few rules to keep in mind if you've never been to a funeral. Leave your phone in the car or in your pocketBefore entering a funeral, Cantelmi said, one thing people can do is be aware of their cellphone.

Persons: —, you've, Randi Goldstein, Casey, Goldsteins, Raphael, Sacks, Dino Cantelmi, Cantelmi, Lean, Elizabeth Fournier, Fournier Organizations: Service, Social, Cornerstone Funeral Services Locations: Philadelphia, Bethlehem , Pennsylvania, Boring , Oregon

☆ 'I don't believe in fairy tales': A veteran economist shares 10 overlooked reasons why the US economy is bound to contract, even as Wall Street bails on recession calls
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"I don't believe in fairy tales, and I don't believe in new eras," Rosenberg said in a recent interview with Insider. The resumption of student loan payments this fall will also cut into spending, Rosenberg predicted. As excess stimulus erodes, the consumer savings rate is sliding. Higher oil and gas prices are also hurting consumers, Rosenberg said. "And they need the money because they're seeing strains on their finances from this 525 basis point runup in rates start to bite into their debt service capacity."

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, they've, Rosenberg doesn't, it's, Louis Organizations: Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, Federal Reserve, of Locations: Saudi Arabia

☆ China's tanking economy will hurt the US more than some experts think, top economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's flailing economy could impact the US more than some experts think. That's because the US is a top foreign investor in China, economist David Rosenberg said. China also buys 40% of all exports from Chile, 34% of all exports from Australia, and 32% of all exports from Peru. The economic downfall will weigh negatively on the global economy, primarily through trade channels on countries with a high dependency on China," Rosenberg and Bakiskan said. The commodities trade in particular will feel the effects of China's economic problems, and countries that are top exporters of key metals are exposed, Rosenberg and Bakiskan said.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Atakan, Bakiskan, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, footholds Locations: China, Chile, Australia, Peru, Wall, Silicon, United States, Asia, Beijing

☆ Some 70,000 child-care providers may close as federal aid ends, report finds. What that means for parents
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Ana Teresa Solá | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Child care 'is a public good'Experts say that systemic change, such as broader parental leave and more public funding for child care, must be involved in order for child care to improve at a larger scale. The national annual cost of child care was about $10,853 for one child in 2022, the organization Child Care Aware of America found. In 2023, 67% of parents reported to spend 20% or more of their household income on child care, Care.com found. Use the benefits you have availableYour workplace may have some options to help you find care, such as backup care providers or on-site child care. Meanwhile, California, Colorado, Hawaii and New Mexico passed laws to provide universal preschool in the past year.

Persons: Lauren Rosenberg, Taryn Morrissey, Morrissey, Care.com, Katherine Gallagher Robbins Organizations: Portland Press Herald, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, American University, U.S . Department of Labor, D.C, Strong, Society for Human Resource Management, District of Columbia, The National Partnership for Women, Washington, Washington , D.C, National Institute for Early Education Research Locations: Portland , Maine, Hamilton, America, Washington, U.S, California , Colorado , Connecticut, Delaware , Maine , Maryland , Massachusetts, Minnesota , New Jersey , New York , Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington ,, Florida , Iowa , Oklahoma , Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Georgia , Illinois, Maine, New York, , California , Colorado, Hawaii, New Mexico

☆ It would be a 'miracle' to escape a recession and the erosion of credit is similar to 2008, top economist David Rosenberg warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US looks likely to tip into a recession in about six months, according to David Rosenberg. The top economist warned that the deterioration of credit quality is reminiscent of 2008's mortgage crisis. "I think that if we escape this little recession, it'll be a miracle," he told Blockworks' Forward Guidance. "Every penny of the stimulus checks got spent." "We just replaced credit cards with what happened with subprime mortgages 15 years ago," Rosenberg said.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Blockworks, We've, I'm, impact's, there's, Morgan Stanley, Seth Carpenter, we'll, Banks, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Associates, Federal, Bank of America Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ The Dow's latest winning streak is bad news for stocks - and a recession might be underway, top economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-29 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Dow's recent winning streak is a worrying sign, David Rosenberg says. Rosenberg says a recession may be underway, and plunging inflation can be bad news for stocks. For the first time since January 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed in the green for 13 straight sessions before snapping its winning streak on Thursday. Stocks were up 28% at this point in 1987, Rosenberg noted. Rosenberg cautioned investors who expect stocks to soar because inflation has now slowed.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Stocks, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Dow, Rosenberg Research, Federal, North Locations: Wall, Silicon, North American

☆ Amazon seller consultant avoids jail in employee bribery scheme
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Annie Palmer | In Annierpalmer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Rosenberg, 48, is a well-known figure in the world of Amazon third-party sellers. The case provides an unfiltered glimpse into the cottage industry of consultants and brokers that has flourished alongside the growth of Amazon's third-party marketplace. A former Amazon employee was sentenced last year to 10 months in prison, while a consultant who also sold products on Amazon is serving 20 months in prison. In one case, Rosenberg made 33 different PayPal payments worth $18,650 to an Amazon employee in Seattle in exchange for confidential information about third-party seller accounts. He later admitted he made false statements about the case and admitted to bribing Amazon employees in a public apology posted online.

Persons: Ephraim, Ed, Rosenberg, it's, scammers, Joe Nilsen, Sellers, Nilsen, Rosenberg's, Jacob Laufer Organizations: Facebook, Amazon, Street Journal, Prosecutors, Seattle, Bloomberg, CNBC Locations: Brooklyn, China, Seattle

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with economist David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with economist David RosenbergDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research founder and president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Rosenberg's thoughts on a potential market bubble, why being rational can impede your equity performance, and how Rosenberg is considering sentiment.

Persons: David Rosenberg David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research

☆ There are parts of the market that are in a bubble, says Rosenberg Research founder
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere are parts of the market that are in a bubble, says Rosenberg Research founderDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research founder and president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Rosenberg's thoughts on a potential market bubble, why being rational can impede your equity performance, and how Rosenberg is considering sentiment.

Persons: Rosenberg, David Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research

☆ Brace for a recession by September, a 20% plunge in the S&P 500, and a painful credit crunch, top economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

David Rosenberg sees a near-term recession, a 20% hit to stocks, and a damaging credit crunch. The economist panned the Fed for hiking interest rates and said they could hit zero again. (Rosenberg suggested S&P 500 earnings could drop by one-fifth in a recession, to about 3,200 points.) Now we have not just the cost of credit being a problem for the economy, but the availability of credit is going to compound that. Read more: We put 7 burning questions to top economist David Rosenberg.

☆ Amazon seller consultant admits to bribing employees to help clients; will plead guilty
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Annie Palmer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

An influential consultant for Amazon sellers admitted Monday to bribing employees of the e-commerce giant for information to help his clients boost sales and to get their suspended accounts reinstated. "On some occasions, I paid bribes, directly and indirectly, to Amazon employees to obtain annotations and reinstate suspended accounts. Behind the scenes, scammers have for years resorted to illicit tactics to squash competitors, artificially boost their listings or bypass Amazon's marketplace rules. "No one should pay bribes to Amazon employees to provide private Amazon information," Rosenberg wrote on Monday. Nor should anyone pay any Amazon employees for any other special favors regarding a seller's account."

☆ Lumber prices are falling - and that means there's no need to fret about inflation, top economist David Rosenberg suggests
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Falling lumber and natural gas prices are reasons not to fret over inflation, according to David Rosenberg. the veteran economist asked in a Monday tweet, saying it's maybe a problem in the services sector of the US economy. Rosenberg has repeatedly shrugged off inflation concerns as price pressures decline from their mid-2022 highs. US natural gas prices plunged 13% on Monday as a streak of mild winter weather hurt demand. That has seen price pressures ease somewhat in recent months, with the latest reading coming in at 6.4% through January.

☆ A $162,500 per year Swiss boarding school — possibly the world's most expensive — says it's embracing AI tech like ChatGPT to help students learn
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( Pete Syme | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Swiss boarding school's director told Insider it is embracing AI tech like ChatGPT and DALL-E.She says banning ChatGPT is "mass hysteria," and students need to be taught the ethics of AI. The Swiss boarding school, which says it is "possibly" the world's costliest, requires a non-refundable fee of over $1,000 just to apply. Another student used DALL·E to generate pictures in an essay about the role of women in the First World War. The AI didn't score more than a C."I would say that if you're getting C level answers from ChatGPT, you're asking the wrong question," Gademann adds. "Can you imagine a scenario where we're throwing millions and millions of dollars to find out if a student used a calculator in math homework in the '80s?"

☆ Veteran economist David Rosenberg said there's 'not a snowball's chance in hell' that he'll get bullish on US stocks until this key event happens — and he's investing in these 6 assets in the meantime
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"The theme for 2023 is not recovery," Rosenberg said in a recent interview with Insider. But Rosenberg believes that the biggest sign that stocks can recover will be a bond market rally. "I think that there's not a snowball's chance in hell that we will get a bottom in the stock market without there being in advance a rally in the bond market," Rosenberg said. Rosenberg continued: "Bond yields have to come down to reestablish the equity risk premium. Outside of stocks, Rosenberg said he recommends a barbell of gold bullion and bonds.

Retirees say that saving and investing for retirement consistently is critical, as investing can help grow savings over many years. Sometimes, the simplest strategies are best — one retired grandfather used a buy-and-hold stock strategy to build a portfolio worth millions. Luckily, lots of people have retired comfortably and are willing to share the steps they took to do so. Here, we've compiled the best advice from four retired people for anyone who's looking forward to a long and happy retirement. Sean says that his grandfather's advice has helped him get on track to hit $6.8 million at age 60, or retire early.

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