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☆ Democrats may still lose the White House. But Biden stepping aside was the only way to change the race.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-21 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Democrats have taken an unprecedented risk in pushing President Joe Biden out of the 2024 race. Biden was well on his way to becoming a one-term president. Needing a way to upend the race, Biden's campaign gambled on scheduling the earliest major presidential debate in history. Democrats' crescendoing calls for Biden to step aside on Friday, with at least nine saying Biden should step aside in just one day, underlined how untenable the situation had become. As Atlantic editor Ron Brownstein has pointed out, based on future Senate maps, Democrats could be facing years in the minority.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Donald Trump, Trump's, Kamala Harris, Sen, JD Vance, Ohio, Harris, Trump, Ron Brownstein Organizations: Service, Business, Biden, Republican, GOP, Atlantic

☆ How Biden hopes to recapture voters scarred by inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +14 min

A majority of Hispanics, and even a plurality of Black voters, said Biden’s policies would cause inflation to rise, the survey found. You can’t not make the contrast and comparison.”These negative retrospective assessments of the Biden and Trump economic records create huge headwinds for the president. “Voters—even past Biden voters who disapprove of his economic record—clearly reject what Trump and Republicans are offering,” Democratic pollster Margie Omero said in an email. After voters were exposed to Biden’s populist arguments, assessments of his economic record improved in the group’s polling, Clark said. But even after hearing that case, most voters in the group’s surveys still gave Biden negative marks for his economic performance, the study found.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden, Biden –, “, ”, Danielle Deiseroth, West Virginia Sen, Joe Manchin, Shawn Fain, Evelyn Hockstein, Adam Green, Michael Tyler, Republican pollster Micah Roberts, It’s, Jim McLaughlin, ” McLaughlin, Roberts, ” Roberts, can’t, ” Tyler, Margie Omero, ’, Bobby Clark, Clark Organizations: CNN, GOP, Trump, Teamsters, Democratic, ACA, West, United Auto Workers, Biden, CNBC, Social Security, Republican, White, NBC News, New York Times, Siena College, CBS, Union, “ Locations: Wisconsin, Michigan, Belleville , Michigan, Scranton , Pennsylvania, Democratic, State, Biden’s

☆ Super Tuesday may underline Trump’s transformation of the GOP
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

His performance so far reflects his success at transforming the Republican Party in his image. The most important message from the primaries is the most straightforward: Trump’s coalition is the dominant faction in the GOP. Like McConnell’s announcement, the choices by GOP elected officials in the primary contest signal their acknowledgement of the party’s direction. The share of GOP elected officials who have endorsed Haley isn’t anywhere near as large as her share of the total vote. But a deeper factor also explains the imbalance in support among GOP elected officials.

Persons: Donald Trump, He’s, Ronald Reagan, Nikki Haley, –, Trump, Reagan, Bob Dole, George W, Bush, Mitt Romney, Whit Ayres, Democrat Grover Cleveland, Republican Benjamin Harrison, ” Ayres, Ayres, Grover Cleveland, ” Chris Wilson, Ron DeSantis, “, ”, Gary Langer, he’s, Kyle Kondik, “ It’s, William Mayer, George H.W, George H.W . Bush, Democrat Al Gore, Haley, Dwight Eisenhower, Sen, Robert Taft, Mitch McConnell, Haley isn’t, Chris Sununu, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Liz Cheney, Wilson, Mike Johnson, McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, Jennifer Horn, Biden, William Galston, Galston, ’, ‘, Kristen Soltis Anderson, isn’t, Eisenhower, “ Trump, ” Galston, ” Trump, Missouri GOP Sen, Eric Schmitt, wouldn’t, he’d Organizations: CNN, Republican, Republican Party, South Carolina Gov, GOP, Washington, Trump, Veteran GOP, White, Democrat, Democratic, Florida Gov, ”, ABC, University of Virginia’s Center, Politics, Northeastern University, Republican internationalists, Republicans, Chicago Council, Global Affairs, Trump’s GOP, New Hampshire Gov, South, Brookings Institution, Biden, Republican National Committee, Missouri GOP Locations: Sunday’s, Iowa , New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, George H.W ., Southern, Iowa, New Hampshire, Oakland, Washtenaw, Kent, Ukraine, Trump’s, Missouri

☆ How the GOP’s rightward shift on immigration helps explain Trump’s primary success
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

Amid widespread discontent over President Joe Biden’s management of the border, the overall electorate is moving rightward on immigration too, polls show. For now, there’s no question that hardening GOP attitudes on immigration have been critical to Trump’s strong performance through the early primaries. Then, 56% of GOP primary voters said undocumented immigrants should be offered legal status; in last month’s primary, 55% said they should be deported. Immigration ranked as the most important issue for most GOP primary voters in South Carolina, and finished close behind the economy in both Iowa and New Hampshire. McLaughlin said Trump’s dominance among the GOP primary voters most concerned about immigration encapsulates a broader reason for his early success: widespread satisfaction among Republicans about his record in office.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Joe Biden’s, Trump, What’s, “, Donald Trump, ”, Jim McLaughlin, Joe Biden, ’, Nikki Haley, Trump’s, Haley, Leah Askarinam, McLaughlin, Robert P, Jones, Charles Franklin, Adolf Hitler, ” Biden, Biden, Stephen Miller, Charlie Kirk, Miller, Dwight D, Eisenhower, Matt Barreto, Barreto, Democratic pollster, ” Barreto, Maria Cardona, Tom Suozzi, George Santos, Suozzi, Bill Clinton Organizations: CNN, GOP, Republican, Trump, Biden, Edison Research, Immigration, Former South Carolina Gov, Quinnipiac University, Survey, Religion Research Institute, Marquette Law School, Marquette, Gallup, Republicans, CBS, National Guard, Democratic, UCLA, New, Republican Rep, White, House Republicans Locations: Alabama, Mississippi, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Iowa, New York, Wisconsin, Mexico, United States, American, Trump, Marquette, America, Texas, Celinda, Arizona, Nevada, Mexico ”, week’s State, Brownsville

☆ Why the race for the House is the one to watch in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-10 | by ( Simone Pathe | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +16 min

CNN —It won’t suck up anywhere near the oxygen of the presidential election, but the race for the US House of Representatives may be the most exciting campaign to watch in 2024. But in the House, Republicans’ shrinking majority has underscored the importance of the balance of power in Washington. House Republicans currently control 219 seats to Democrats’ 212, with four vacancies. Santos was expelled from the House last year, but he’s not absent from the race. Seats Republicans are targetingThe House GOP campaign arm releases a similar target list, which includes 37 offensive seats this year.

Persons: they’re, Democratic Sen, Joe Manchin’s, –, George Santos ’, Santos, he’s, Joe Biden, Biden, ”, “, Cam Savage, Nathan L, Gonzales, Nick LaLota, Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro, Brandon Williams, John Duarte, David Valadao, Mike Garcia, Young Kim, Michelle Steel, David Schweikert, Juan Ciscomani, Don Bacon of Nebraska, Tom Kean of, Lori Chavez, Brian Fitzpatrick, Jen Kiggans, Tom Suozzi, Donald Trump, Mary Peltola of, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Jared Golden of, Matt Cartwright of, Marcy Kaptur, Kaptur, Elissa Slotkin –, Dan Kildee, Kildee –, don’t, Dale Kildee, Abigail Spanberger, Susan Wild, Emilia Sykes, Yadira, there’s, There’s, Ron DeSantis, Savage, Ron Brownstein, Trump, he’ll, Suozzi, Achim Bergmann, Bergmann, Gavin Newsom, Kathy Hochul, Eric Adams, Roe, Wade, Meredith Kelly Organizations: CNN, US, Democratic, House, Washington . House Republicans, ’, GOP, Santos, PAC, House Democratic, Republican, Congressional, Fund, Blue States Project, Republicans, Biden, New, Democratic Congressional, National Republican, Washington . Rep, –, Democrats, Rep, Independent, GOP Gov, Trump, Democrat, White, California Gov, New York Gov, New York City Locations: West Virginia, Washington, New York, Tuesday’s, York, California, “ California, Republican, Blue States, Michigan, New Mexico , Colorado, North Carolina, Arizona, Tom Kean of New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Iowa, Arizona , Colorado , Montana , Nebraska , Oregon , Texas, Arizona , California, Florida , Michigan, Wisconsin, Mary Peltola of Alaska, Jared Golden of Maine, Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan’s 8th, –, Texas, Alabama, It’s, Louisiana, Florida, South Carolina, Charleston, Biden, Long, New

☆ Haley’s voters might decide Biden’s fate in November. Here’s why.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

In New Hampshire, more than 4-in-5 Haley voters said Trump would not be fit to serve again if convicted and that Biden had legitimately won. In that poll, two-thirds of Haley voters in Iowa said they would not vote for Trump in a general election; that number soared past three-fourths of her voters in New Hampshire. One key reason: fully 93% of all GOP-leaning voters said they disapproved of Biden’s performance as president. Madrid believes Biden’s record on immigration is the biggest obstacle to him harvesting support among the Republicans uneasy about Trump. Lake doesn’t agree that any single issue is critical for Biden with the kind of GOP voters who have rallied to Haley.

Persons: Nikki Haley’s, Donald Trump, Haley, Biden, Joe Biden, Haley –, Trump, ”, Smith, Michael Madrid, “ Trump, “, SSRS, “ Donald Trump, that’s, Alan Abramowitz, Ron DeSantis, it’s, Democratic pollster, Biden’s, ” Madrid, Haley herself, ” Jennifer Horn, MAGA …, ” Jim McLaughlin, Trump’s, McLaughlin, Bill McInturff –, –, Lake, Jean Carroll, ’, Taylor Swift, Chris Wilson, Republican pollster, Wilson, ” Wilson, Lake doesn’t Organizations: CNN, South Carolina Republican, Trump, White, GOP, Republican, Democratic, Trump Lincoln Project, Washington Post, University of Maryland, Capitol, CBS, Republicans, NBC News, Republican Party, South, Emory University, Florida Gov, Edison Research, Haley Iowa, Monmouth University, ”, Biden, New Hampshire Republican, NBC, AP Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, California, Madrid, Washington, South Carolina, ” Madrid, McInturff, Lake, Trump

☆ Analysis: Why DeSantis’ departure isn’t likely to change the dynamic between Trump and Haley
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

The DeSantis and Haley camps each believed they would benefit if the other left the field and created an unambiguous one-on-one race with Trump. In fact, both the Trump and DeSantis campaigns believe that more of the Florida governor’s supporters will likely pick Trump. Any gain or loss for Haley among voters from DeSantis’ decision seems likely to affect the race only marginally, many GOP observers believe. Even at that point in the 2016 race, Trump had won only a cumulative 40% of the votes cast in the GOP primaries. His theory that he could peel away a meaningful number of previous Trump voters simply proved wrong.

Persons: New Hampshire CNN —, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Trump, Joe Biden, Haley doesn’t, Biden, winnowing, Whit Ayres, ” Ayres, Texas Sen, Ted Cruz, George Conway, “ Trump, David Kochel, “, he’s, –, Trump’s, ”, Alex Stroman, Trump’s MAGA, MAGA, CNN DeSantis, “ DeSantis, Scott Reed, Bob Dole’s, John Connally, suburbanites, Vivek Ramaswamy, Donald Trump’s, ” Stroman, Jean Carroll, Mike Murphy, – Haley, Sen, Marco Rubio, she’s, Mike Dennehy, John McCain’s, Bill Kristol, Kristol, ” Kristol, Matt Gaetz, Ginger Heald, Ayres, Grover Cleveland, Republican Benjamin Harrison, Reed, Dole, Mike Pence, Pence, ” Reed, “ He’s Organizations: New Hampshire CNN, Florida Gov, GOP, South Carolina Gov, Republican, Trump, CNN, New Hampshire, Democratic, South, University of New Hampshire, Republicans, Texas, nonurban Whites, The, South Carolina Republican Party, Edison Research, Trump Trump, Biden, New Hampshire GOP, Florida Republican, Merrimack Republican, Committee, DeSantis Locations: Manchester, New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina, New, Iowa, DeSantis, As, Hampshire, New York, Trump, The Florida, Trump’s, Texas, Charleston, Polk County, Trump’s Manchester , New Hampshire, Ukraine, Israel, ”

☆ Why Trump’s hold on evangelicals is so hard for DeSantis and Haley to break
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +15 min

Beyond Trump’s strong overall lead, the survey showed the former president attracting 51% support from Iowa evangelicals, far more than he drew in 2016. But Trump won the state by capturing 44% of evangelicals without a degree, double his share among the South Carolina evangelicals with a degree. This year, DeSantis will likely need to shake Trump’s hold on evangelical voters if he is to finish well enough in Iowa to remain a viable candidate after Monday. Asked if DeSantis can win evangelicals in Iowa on Monday, Vander Plaats pointedly responded: “I think he’ll do very well.”Compared to DeSantis, Haley isn’t betting on evangelical voters nearly as heavily in Iowa. Even in the most optimistic scenario for DeSantis or Haley, Trump’s hold on evangelicals without a college degree looks like a rock in the road for them.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, –, Texas Sen, Ted Cruz, Ron DeSantis, Cruz, DeSantis, Trump, ”, Gary Bauer, Nikki Haley, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Huckabee, Santorum, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Romney, Gary Langer, Trump’s, “ There’s, ’ ”, Bob Vander Plaats, Vander Plaats, Haley isn’t, Rubio, Haley, Robert P, Jones –, “ Trump, ” Jones, Jones, “, ” Bauer, you’ve Organizations: CNN, Yorker, Trump, Texas, Florida Gov, GOP, Des Moines Register, NBC, South Carolina Gov, Republican, McCain, ABC News, Edison Research, –, Public Religion Research Institute, Survey, College, New York Times, The New York Times, Democrats Locations: Iowa, Florida, The Iowa, Nevada , Missouri , Alabama, Georgia , Tennessee, Virginia , Michigan , Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Carolina, New Hampshire, American, America

☆ Ron DeSantis is running a textbook Iowa caucuses campaign. Trump still seems like he's going to completely blow him out.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Ron DeSantis, who is behind in Iowa, has received major endorsements in the state. Ron DeSantis has bet his political future on Iowa. The positive news came on the heels of Iowa Gov. ("Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley have partisans. No recent nominee has failed to win Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, Kim Reynolds, Bob Vander Plaats, —, Donald Trump's, DeSantis, Reynolds, Grassley, Trump, Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, Scott Olson, trashing Reynolds, Grant Wood, Ben Jacobs, Texas Sen, Ted Cruz, Pennsylvania Sen, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Sen, Bernie Sanders, Barack Obama, Ron Brownstein, Cruz, Santorum, Huckabee, what's, Ricky Bobby, it's Organizations: Florida Gov, Iowa Gov, Trump, GOP, Service, Republican, CBS, Iowa State University, Iowa GOP, DeSantis, Getty, rockstar, Arkansas Gov, Iowa Republicans, Iowa, Hawkeye State Locations: Florida, Iowa, VFW, Texas, Pennsylvania, North Dakota, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Hawkeye

☆ How Haley could eclipse DeSantis to become the Trump alternative
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +16 min

But many Republican strategists believe that DeSantis’ struggles to connect with voters, and his choice to run at Trump solely from the right, have opened a lane for Haley to eclipse the Florida governor. An array of recent polls, both nationally and in the battleground states, signal that DeSantis and Haley have separated themselves from the rest of the candidates chasing Trump. “Absolutely, Nikki Haley has more upside than DeSantis if they are both viable after the first two,” argued Alex Stroman, a former executive director of the South Carolina GOP. DeSantis, Ayres argued, has “has tried to appeal to some of the ‘always Trump’ voters, but the ‘always Trump’ voters are always Trump for a reason. Nikki Haley seems to have figured out the job is to consolidate the ‘maybe Trump’ voters who supported Trump twice but now … want a different style and different temperament.”Republicans sympathetic to DeSantis argue that it is Haley who has boxed herself in.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Trump, “ You’ve, ”, Tom Rath, Donald Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Republican pollster Whit Ayres, Alice Stewart, Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, South Carolina Sen, Tim Scott, Scott, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Ted Cruz, Kim Reynolds, Huckabee, Santorum, Cruz, John McCain, Mitt Romney, ’, Ayres, Rath, George W, Bush, “, ” Dante Scala –, –, Scala, GOPers, ” Haley, McCain, Linus, ‘, ’ ”, he’s, Newt Gingrich, Alex Stroman, DeSantis “, ” Ayres, Ayres ’ “, tellingly, MAGA —, dethroning, ” Scala, Mike Murphy, who’s, Joe Biden, ” Murphy, There’s, Sen, Gary Hart parlayed, Hart, Walter Mondale, Chris Sununu, DeSantis ’, Yogi Berra, ” Rath Organizations: CNN, GOP, Florida Gov, South Carolina Gov, ”, Republicans, Trump, Republican, Washington Post, New, New Jersey Gov, South, Huckabee, New Hampshire GOP, University of New, Romney, South Carolina GOP, “, dethroning Trump, Democratic Locations: Florida, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Iowa, New Jersey, Granite State, University of New Hampshire, After New Hampshire, Gaza, DeSantis, Haley, Iowa , New Hampshire

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