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☆ Morning Bid: Fed leaves shoe dangling in policy parade
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

At least eight major central banks are meeting on Thursday. Central banks in South Africa and Turkey are also meeting. Futures now show the implied Fed policy rate for the end of next year at a new cycle high of 4.85% - up a whopping 35 basis points in just over a week. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:* Bank of England policy decision; South Africa Reserve Bank policy decision, Central Bank of Turkey policy decision. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks* Philadelphia Fed's September business survey, U.S. weekly jobless claims, U.S. Aug existing home sales, U.S. Q2 current account estimate.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Robin Brooks, Brooks, BoE, Christine Lagarde, Darden, Christina Fincher Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Swiss National Bank, Bank of, Fed, for International Finance, Treasury, Swiss, Africa Reserve Bank, Central Bank of, European Central Bank, Factset, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Norwegian, Bank of England, South Africa, Turkey, Central Bank of Turkey, Philadelphia

☆ Exodus of capital from China signals 'seismic' change in global flows as investors grow wary of autocratic regimes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's capital exodus is among the worst seen by emerging markets, said Robin Brooks, chief economist at IIF. That's as global investors have grown wary of autocratic regimes, he tweeted on Sunday. "The change in global capital flows is seismic. "But China has now seen consistent and large outflows for the past 18 months, as investors grow wary of autocracies." Global markets look at China in a new light," Brooks said in a separate X post.

Persons: Robin Brooks, Brooks, Ukraine that's, Adam Posen Organizations: IIF, Service, Institute of International Finance, hemorrhaging, CSI, Administration of Foreign Exchange, EPFR, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Foreign Affairs Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, outflows

☆ Brazil's real, not the dollar, could be the solution to Argentina's currency turmoil, an economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Argentina should peg the peso to Brazil's real, not the US dollar, to deal with exchange-rate instability and hyperinflation, an economist said. "If Argentina wants a currency peg so badly - Dollarization is after all just a peg - peg to Brazil," Robin Brooks said. "If Argentina wants a currency peg so badly - Dollarization is after all just a peg - peg to Brazil. AdvertisementAdvertisementSome market experts have also backed the idea of Argentina potentially adopting the US currency – economist Steve Hanke recently called for the nation to mothball its central bank and dollarize. Brooks' latest comments come after he suggested earlier that Argentina needs a recession to fix its crashing currency, not dollarization.

Persons: Robin Brooks, Brooks, Javier Milei, Steve Hanke Organizations: Service, Institute of International Finance, South, greenback Locations: Argentina, Brazil, Wall, Silicon, South American

☆ Argentina is already dollarizing - these businesses have switched to greenbacks as the peso is worth a fraction of a penny
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

And more businesses are accepting dollars as payment as the peso crashes. AdvertisementAdvertisementE-commerce giant MercadoLibre, consulting firm Accenture, software developer Globant, and fintech firm Ualá offer partial pay in greenbacks, according to reports. In addition to staff salaries, the private sector is increasingly accepting dollars as a form of payment as well. For example, US website firm GoDaddy stopped accepting Argentinian peso payments in June, changing to dollars. He also suggested Argentina would be better off pegging its currency to the Brazilian real instead of the greenback.

Persons: Javier Milei, fintech's, GoDaddy, ZonaProp, Robin Brooks Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Accenture Locations: Wall, Silicon, greenbacks, Buenos Aires, Argentina

☆ US lending 'meltdown' shows big investment slump is underway, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US commercial and industrial lending slumped sharply this year, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance said. Robin Brooks has called it a "staggering meltdown" – and warns a big slump in US investment is on its way. Credit flows have declined amid higher interest rates and tighter lending standards following this year's banking turmoil. Furthermore, a sharp surge in US interest rates since early 2022 has made borrowings much more expensive, potentially damping demand. "Meltdown in US commercial and industrial (C&I) loan growth is staggering," he tweeted on Sunday.

Persons: Robin Brooks, Alastair Borthwick, Borthwick Organizations: Institute of International Finance, Service, Silicon Valley Bank, Big, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Locations: Wall, Silicon, America

☆ The inflation shock is over so there's no need for any more Fed rate hikes, the Institute of International Finance's chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

"The US inflation shock is over", so the Fed need not hike interest rates any more, according to the chief economist of the Institute of International Finance. The IIF's measure of "inflation generalization" has fallen to the lowest level since February 2021, Robin Brooks said. US inflation has been steadily cooling from its mid-2022's highs, coming in at 4.0% in May on an annual basis. "The US inflation shock is over. While Brooks suggests the threat of inflation has faded, other market commentators have raised concerns inflation is sticky and can lead to stagflation.

Persons: Robin Brooks, —, Brooks, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Institute of International Finance, Service, CPI, Federal

Some industry executives said the central bank should prioritize financial stability now. “Go fast and hard on financial stability; go gradual and slow on price stability,” said Peter Orszag, chief executive of financial advisory at investment bank Lazard Ltd (LAZ.N). The central bank declined to comment. Others have joined in, with the European Central Bank raising rates by 50 basis points earlier this week. The events this past week correspond to a 1.5% increase in the Fed funds rate, Slok wrote.

☆ A former BlackRock stock chief says he thinks the S&P 500 will fall another 17% as investors ignore a growing mountain of tell-tale recession signals
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Doll says the S&P 500 will drop to 3,400 if a mild recession unfolds. If a more normal recession (more severe than a mild downturn) comes, Doll said the index could fall to 3,000. The Fed's recession probability tracker based on the yield curve also now puts the odds of a recession at 57%. Subramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall as low as 3,000, a view shared by Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. If trouble hits, like Doll and much of Wall Street expects, stocks could extend their fall to new lows.

☆ A global recession could be coming - at least that's what commodity prices seem to say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Right now, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, Robin Brooks, is watching weakening commodity prices. Specifically, Brooks pointed out that oil and copper prices have slumped roughly 6% each since mid-January, despite China's easing of zero-COVID policies. "Whatever is going on in China, there's no sign that the end of zero-COVID is boosting global growth, based on commodity prices," Brooks said in a tweet. "Oil prices never went up and copper prices are falling after the initial China reopening excitement fades." He pointed to the sharp change in oil prices last week as an example of shallower liquidity.

[1/4] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Central Bank Governor Sahap Kavcioglu are pictured during a signing ceremony in Ankara, Turkey, June 8, 2022. But his drastic transformation of the economy and financial markets means such a change would bring its own uncertainties. The election will also determine what role regional military power and NATO member Turkey plays in conflicts in Ukraine, where Erdogan has helped broker talks, and in neighbour Syria. In the short-term it seems to have worked however, halting a years-long rise in Turks converting lira into dollars. Last week, Turkey had no problem borrowing $2.75 billion from international capital markets.

Nearly 165 million people were either in jobs or looking for them last month, a record high that showed a long-hoped-for improvement in labor supply. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe jobs report is "the embodiment of the soft landing narrative - this idea that can you have a strong labor market with slowing wage growth," said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors. Ideally, she said, that should allow the Fed to slow and soon pause its interest rate hikes. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsTraders took the report as evidence the Fed's work is near to being done. Still, she said, "inflation remains far too high, despite some encouraging signs lately, and is therefore of great concern."

☆ The global economy could be about to suffer its weakest year since the financial crisis as war in Ukraine drags on
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Global growth could slow to just 1.2% in 2023, according to the Institute of International Finance. Growth was last that weak in 2009 as the financial crisis ravaged the global economy. The "forever war" between Russia and Ukraine could hammer growth until 2024, the IIF said. "The severity of the coming hit to global GDP depends principally on the trajectory of the war in Ukraine," they wrote in a research note. The eurozone economy is likely to contract by 2% as business confidence falls due to Europe's proximity to Russia and Ukraine, according to the IIF.

☆ European Union agrees to a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( The Associated Press | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +4 min

BRUSSELS — The European Union tentatively agreed to a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil, a key step as Western sanctions aim to reorder the global oil market to prevent price spikes and starve President Vladimir Putin of funding for his war in Ukraine. The $60 figure sets the cap near the current price of Russia’s crude, which recently fell below $60 a barrel. There is a big risk to the global oil market of losing large amounts of crude from the world’s No. Putin has said he would not sell oil under a price cap and would retaliate against nations that implement the measure. “The reality is that it is unlikely to be binding given where oil prices are now.”Others have criticized the measure, a brainchild of U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin.

But she said the current priorities for global economic officials were controlling inflation, improving fiscal policy after massive spending early in the pandemic, and finding ways to buffer developing countries against the global rise in interest rates. How do we build fiscal space given that we've used up so much" fighting the initial shock of the pandemic? Studies have begun documenting a potentially permanent blow to labor supply from the pandemic. In the United Kingdom, long-term illness has sidelined more than 377,000 people since the start of the pandemic, about 1% of the labor force. It may be only the beginning of understanding what the pandemic has meant and how the world may need to prepare for the next shock.

☆ Pound and euro need to fall further to reach "fair value" - IIF
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Britain's pound is still 18% above its "fair value" and the euro 11.6% above its fair value despite the sharp falls seen by both currencies this year, the Institute of International Finance estimated on Thursday. "Although the Euro and the British Pound have already fallen substantially, we estimate that they will need to fall further in order to converge to their new fair values," the IIF's Robin Brooks said commenting on its latest FX fair value estimates. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Marc Jones; editing by Danilo MasoniOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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