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Nomura Research: China is facing a 'balance sheet recession'
  + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNomura Research: China is facing a 'balance sheet recession'Richard Koo of Nomura Research Institute says the situation China is facing is similar to what Japan faced in the 1990s.
Persons: Richard Koo Organizations: Nomura Research, Nomura Research Institute, Japan Locations: China
Pictured here is a real estate project under construction in Huai 'an city, Jiangsu province, China, on April 8, 2024. BEIJING — China needs to convince people that home prices are on their way up in order for economic activity to pick up, Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick last week. In other words, as Koo warned last year, China may be entering a "balance sheet recession," similar to what Japan experienced during its economic slump. "For them to come back and borrow money, we need a narrative that says, okay, this is the bottom of the prices, the prices will start going up from this point onwards," Koo said. Koo and other analysts have pointed out that in China's policy-driven economy, house prices have not fallen as much as expected given declines in other aspects of the property market.
Persons: Huai, Richard Koo, CNBC's Steve Sedgwick, Goldman Sachs, Koo, " Koo Organizations: Nomura Research Institute, Japan Locations: Jiangsu province, China, BEIJING
Decades of trade deficits and a strong dollar created too many "losers" in the U.S. economy who turned to Donald Trump's protectionist policies, according to Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute — and those conditions remain. Trump's "America First" economic policies led his administration to institute a slew of trade tariffs on China, Mexico, the European Union and others, including slapping 25% duties on imported steel and aluminum. These policies have drawn widespread criticism from economists, who argue that tariffs are counterproductive, as they make imported goods more expensive for the average American. "When we studied economics and free trade, in particular, we were taught...that free trade always creates both winners and losers in the same economy, but the gain that winners get is always greater than the loss of the losers, so the society as a whole always gains. So that's why the free trade is good," he noted.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jonathan Diller, Donald Trump's, Richard Koo, Trump, Steve Sedgwick, Koo Organizations: U.S, New York City Police Department, NYPD, Nomura Research Institute, European Union, Republican Locations: New, Rockaway, Queens, Massapequa Park , New York, U.S, China, Mexico
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomist explains how the exchange rate and 'Wall Street types' enabled Trump's riseRichard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute, explains how free trade and a strong dollar created the conditions for Donald Trump's 2016 election win, and why those issues haven't gone away.
Persons: Richard Koo, Donald Trump's, haven't Organizations: Nomura Research Institute
But Japan's economy — the long-unconscious patient — recently started to wiggle its toe. The country's stock market is ripping; the Nikkei recently exceeded the all-time highs it set 34 years ago. Now, Koo says, Chinese academics and policymakers are flocking to Japan to glean some kind of wisdom from the country's experience. Advertisement"This has made Japan attractive for foreign investors, and the stock market has done well," Koo said. Even without a currency war with Beijing, the world is building defenses against another wave of Chinese goods.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, there's, Nomura, Richard Koo, Koo, Shinzo Abe, Japan's, What's, it's, we're, haven't, Xi Jinping, doesn't, Xi, we've, Brasília Organizations: Nikkei, Goldman, Bank of Japan, Corporations, International Monetary Fund, Japan, Peterson Institute, European Union, China Locations: East Asia, China, Japan, Real, Tokyo, Beijing, Brussels, Brasília, American, Washington, Brazil, Turkey
More than 8.5 million abandoned homes in rural Japan are creating a "ghost town" problem. There are more than 8.5 million akiya , or abandoned homes, in rural Japan, according to the country's 2018 Housing and Land Survey, its most recent on record. The institute predicts akiya could exceed 30% of homes in Japan by 2033. As Richard Koo, the chief economist at NRI, told them at the time, the Japanese countryside has been hollowing out since the mid-'90s. Why aren't more Japanese people buying abandoned countryside homes?
Persons: , who've, Richard Koo, There's, Chris McMorran, Koo, Douglas Southerland, McMorran, Natasha Durie, Durie, Eric McAskill, McAskill, Jaya Thursfield, Chihiro, Kurosawa, Joey Stockermans, akiya Organizations: Service, Survey, Nomura Research Institute, Business Insider's, NRI, National University of Singapore, of Anthropology, Ethnography, Oxford University, Canadian Real Estate Association Locations: Japan, Business Insider's Singapore, Gifu, Vancouver, Canada, Nagano Prefecture, England, Ibaraki Prefecture, London, North America, Kyushu, akiya
Sen. Bob Menendez and his wife Nadine Arslanian arrive at federal court following an indictment on corruption charges. Still, even prior to Menendez and federal indictment, Arslanian brushed up against fame and scandal. Arslanian "liked nice things," Anton told Insider. The longtime friend, who asked not to be identified by name, told Insider that Arslanian was conscious of her looks. AdvertisementAdvertisement"We felt that it was a very one-sided investigation," Koop's sister, Rosemarie Koop-Angelicola, told Insider.
Persons: Nadine Arslanian, Richard Koop, Robert Menendez, Arslanian texted Menendez, Sen, Bob Menendez, Brendan McDermid, Menendez's, Arslanian, Menendez, Chris Christie, Doug Anton, Kim DePaola, Kelly, Anton, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Mareva Mitsotakis, Chip Somodevilla, Nadine Tabourian, Raffi Arslanian, Sabine, André, Arslanian's, Last, Marco Tacca, Anton's, Koop, , Narendra Modi, Stefani Reynolds, Bono, — Menendez, Taj, Robert, Nadine, Menendez cradling Arslanian, they've, Koop's, Rosemarie Koop, Angelicola, she's, Wael Hana, Douglas Anton, Jose Uribe, Uribe, Fred Daibes, Bob, Nadine wasn't, Aaron Short Organizations: New Jersey IHOP, Benz, Reuters, Democratic Party, Prosecutors, longtime Garden, Arslanian's, Real Housewives of New, Attorney, Greek, White House, New York University, New York Times, Housewives of, Indian, Getty, Lincoln, Police, Senate Foreign Relations, Strategic, Business Consultants, Strategic International Business Consultants, Hana, Department of Justice Locations: New Jersey, Bogota , New Jersey, Englewood Cliffs, Real Housewives of New Jersey, Beirut, Lebanon, United States, Bergen, Jersey, Cernobbio, Italy, AFP, Bergen County, Union City, Queens, Arslanian's Englewood, Washington, DC, Bogota, Egypt, Arslanian, Egyptian, Englewood
Sen. Bob Menendez's wife fatally struck a man with her car in December 2018. A retired police chief can be heard on police video asking other officers about the crash. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Several sources told NBC that investigators from the attorney general's office wanted to know who asked the retired police chief to come to the crash scene.
Persons: Sen, Bob Menendez's, , Bob Menendez, Mercedes, Nadine Menendez, Nadine Arslanian, Richard Koop, Arslanian, Koop, Menendez, Matt Platkin's Organizations: Service, Benz, New, Police, Associated Press, NBC Locations: New Jersey
Nadine Arslanian married Bob Menendez in 2020, two years after she struck and killed a pedestrian. Records show that she has a history of traffic infractions, including using a phone while driving. AdvertisementAdvertisementNadine Arslanian, the wife of embattled New Jersey senator Bob Menendez , has a history of traffic violations stretching beyond a fatal 2018 crash in which she struck and killed a pedestrian, municipal records show, including two citations for using her phone while driving. Arslanian seems to have been something of a fixture in New Jersey traffic courts, racking up six tickets between 2005 and 2018 for violations, including using a phone while driving, ignoring traffic signs, and failing to maintain her headlamps. AdvertisementAdvertisementArslanian received another ticket for using her phone while driving in 2021, three years after she killed Koop, municipal records show.
Persons: Nadine Arslanian, Bob Menendez, , Arslanian, Richard Koop, Mercedes, Menendez, Matt Friedman, Koop, Doug Anton, Kelly, Wael Hana, Mendendez's Organizations: Records, Service, Benz, Police, Politico, BMW Locations: New Jersey, Egyptian
Nadine Arslanian hit a man who was jaywalking, NorthJersey.com reported, citing a police report. Now Arslanian Menendez, she was never charged in the case, the local paper reported. AdvertisementAdvertisementNadine Arslanian was involved in a fatal car accident in December 2018, NorthJersey.com reported on Wednesday. A police report said Arslanian struck and killed a man while driving her Mercedes-Benz on Main Street in Bogota, New Jersey, on December 12, 2018, the local paper reported. NorthJersey.com reported that she asked why Koop was in the road in the first place and then said that she "didn't do anything wrong."
Persons: Sen, Bob Menendez's, Nadine Arslanian, NorthJersey.com, Arslanian Menendez, , Arslanian, Bob Menendez, Menendez, Richard Koop, Koop Organizations: Service, Mercedes, Benz, Bogota Police Department, Senate, The New York Times, Name Medical Locations: Bogota , New Jersey, Bogota, New Jersey
Footage obtained by News 12 New Jersey shows the fatal crash involving Nadine Arslanian and a pedestrian. Arslanian, who is now married to Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey, was not charged in the incident. AdvertisementAdvertisementNewly released footage shows the moment Sen. Bob Menendez's now-wife Nadine Arslanian fatally hit a pedestrian in her Mercedes-Benz on a New Jersey street in December 2018. JUST IN: News 12 New Jersey has obtained security video from a 2018 incident where Sen. Menendez's wife Nadine Arslanian struck and killed a pedestrian. The security footage shows a car barreling into a person who appears to be standing in the street.
Persons: Nadine Arslanian, Sen, Bob Menendez, , Bob Menendez's, Menendez's, VoyQH7weel, Arslanian, Menendez, Richard Koop Organizations: Bob Menendez of New, Service, Mercedes, Benz, New, Bogota Police Department, Prosecutors Locations: Jersey, Bob Menendez of, Bob Menendez of New Jersey, New Jersey, Bogota, Bergen County , New Jersey
With the population in Japan shrinking and Japanese buyers vastly preferring new over used homes, older homes are often abandoned when owners die or younger generations refuse to inherit them. The Japanese government estimated in 2018 that there were nearly 8.5 million abandoned homes in the country. Jaya Thursfield and his wife, Chihiro, moved from London to Japan after buying an abandoned Japanese farmhouse in Ibaraki, a Japanese prefecture about an hour's drive northeast from Tokyo. With many Japanese buyers preferring newly built houses, some homes are demolished after only 20-30 years. And while houses in the US typically appreciate in value, houses in Japan tend to gradually depreciate in value over time.
Persons: Jaya Thursfield, Chihiro, Richard Koo, Koo, Bethany Nakamura, Nakamura, it's Organizations: Service, Privacy, Japan, Japan's Ministry of Land, Transport, Tourism, YouTube, Law, Nomura Research Institute Locations: Wall, Silicon, Japan, Infrastructure, London, Ibaraki, Tokyo, Jaya, America
[1/5] A worker sweeps a street in the Central Business District on a rainy day in Beijing, China, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Thomas PeterBEIJING, July 18 (Reuters) - China is entering an era of much slower economic growth, raising a daunting prospect: it may never get rich. He expects growth to slow to 3%, which "will feel like an economic recession" when youth unemployment is already above 20%. The April-June data puts 2023 growth on track for roughly 5%, with slower rates thereafter. But China's annual growth averaged around 7% last decade, and more than 10% in the 2000s.
Persons: Thomas Peter BEIJING, Desmond Lachman, year's, Wang Jun, Zheng Shanjie, Zheng, Richard Koo, Juan Orts, Xi Jinping's, Zhao, Cai Fang, Zhu Ning, Koo, Liangping Gao, Ellen Zhang, Ziyi Tang, Kevin Yao, Joe Cash, Marius Zaharia, David Crawshaw Organizations: Central Business District, REUTERS, American Enterprise Institute, Reuters, Communist, Huatai Asset Management, Reform Commission, Overseas, Nomura Research Institute, Fathom Consulting, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Japan, United States, Young, Africa, Latin, U.S, Central
China is teetering on the brink of deflation – where prices fall, rather than rise. Essentially, it's the opposite of what's happening in the US – and that could be a huge red flag for the global economy. Deflation "is a very bad sign macroeconomically," economist Richard Koo said in a recent episode of Bloomberg's "Odd Lots" podcast. "Individually, [people trying to save money] might be doing the right things, but collectively, they may be killing the economy." But if those policies don't work, there could be pain ahead for the global economy.
Persons: it's, Richard Koo Organizations: Service, US Federal Reserve, Gross, Apple, Nike Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, Japan
Investors worry about market ructions if Ueda hikes rates now but there is another risk: that he waits too long. Reuters GraphicsUeda’s inaction – and the domestic markets’ positive response – have bought him time to focus on evaluating macroeconomic fundamentals, particularly inflation. The country only emerged from a decades-long deflationary rut relatively recently, so local economists, executives and consumers are unused to worrying about consumer prices rising too fast. The government’s latest draft of its long-term economic plan, seen by Reuters on June 2, remains focused on eradicating Japan's “long-held deflationary mindset”. "We expect inflation to quite clearly slow below 2%" toward the middle of the current fiscal year, Ueda told parliament.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Haruhiko Kuroda, Ueda, , , Richard Koo, Shinzo Abe, Francesco Guerrera, Katrina Hamlin Organizations: Reuters, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Nasdaq, Bank for International, Toyota, Toshiba, Black Monday, Japan Inc, International Monetary Fund, of, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, United States, U.S, Great, China, Europe, Germany, Italy, of Japan’s
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is likely to face a 'balance sheet recession,' economist saysRichard Koo of the Nomura Research Institute says the country is likely to face such a situation "given what's happening to the asset markets."
Persons: Richard Koo Organizations: China, Nomura Research Institute
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