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The rapid shift in expectations away from multiple rate cuts this year may have created a trading opportunity around Wednesday's inflation data, according to Bank of America. We believe squeeze risks for rate-sensitive laggards on a CPI miss outweigh downside risks on a CPI beat," Kwon wrote. Specifically, there could be an opportunity to bet on the squeeze risk through the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) , Kwon said. KRE YTD mountain This regional bank ETF is underperforming the broader market year to date. Investors could position for this potential squeeze by just buying the ETF outright, though that does carry the risk of a hot inflation reading pushing regional bank stocks down.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, Russell, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America . Equity, Regional Banking, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic, Bank of America Locations: IWM, Silicon
Regional bank earnings may expose critical weaknesses, according to Sheila Bair, former chair of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.Their quarterly numbers begin hitting Wall Street this week. Bair, who ran the FDIC during the 2008 financial crisis, is nervous that regional bank issues from 2023 aren't fully resolved. "This is still a problem for the regional banks, and fingers crossed that there's [not] another failure. The SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) is down almost 13%, and only four of its members are positive for 2024. Her latest regional bank warning comes as the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield topped 4.6% this week and hit its highest level since November 2023.
Persons: Sheila Bair, I'm, Bair, CNBC's, aren't, We're Organizations: U.S . Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, P Regional Bank ETF, New York Community Bancorp, Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp, Kearny Financial, Columbia Banking, National Bancorp Locations: New York
For example, we now have a higher interest rate environment that will add more pressure on deposit costs. There is anticipation of more builds for reserves, particularly for commercial real estate, but also possibly for credit cards. The commercial real estate problem is the main issue. "Anything that's levered like commercial real estate, it's a different world," Tom Michaud, CEO of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, said in a recent interview on FactSet. "I expect more commercial real estate losses in every category, the question is whether it is going to be cataclysmic or is it going to be manageable."
Persons: Financials, Banks, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Wells Fargo, it's, Tom Michaud, Keefe, Woods Organizations: UBS, Credit Suisse, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Federal Reserve, First Republic, Regional Bank ETF, Bank, Allstate, Travelers Locations: Wells Fargo, Treasurys, Hartford
US banks are sitting on an estimated $650 billion in unrealized losses on their bond holdings. Here's why banks have flexibility in making sure that their $650 billion balance sheet bomb is defused. The bond crash culminated in an estimated $650 billion in unrealized losses held by banks, according to Moody's. How banks can defuse their balance sheet bombDespite the massive unrealized losses, banks are looking at three scenarios that could help ensure losses aren't realized. First, banks could simply hold onto their low-yielding debt until it matures and not realize any losses at all.
Persons: , aren't, Louis Navellier, Geetu Sharma, Sharma, Banks Organizations: Service, Fed, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank, Consumers, of America, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Banks, P Bank, P Regional Bank ETF
Here's why stocks are still vulnerable in September
  + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
The bad news is, stocks still aren't cheap, rates still seem like they want to push higher, and China is definitely weaker. Stocks are vulnerable in September: The 'pain trade' is down After that, it's time to repair some damage to the markets. Here's the good news: even though stocks have been straight down most of this month, 5% off the highs is a pretty garden variety correction. Nvidia and AI stocks: how much more do you want? I don't know if that is true, but it sure looks like much of the demand for AI stocks has been pulled forward.
Persons: Jerome Powell's Jackson, Powell, Stocks, there's, Banks, Russell, Susan Collins, Patrick Harker, Joachim Nagel, Thursday's, I'm, Chris Harvey, it's, Jackson Organizations: Federal, deflator, Regional Bank ETF, Energy, Boston, Financial Times, Philadelphia Fed, CNBC, ECB, Nvidia, Microsoft, Cisco, Intelligence, Technology, IBM Locations: China, Wells Fargo, Jackson
The company reported an adjusted $2.11 per share on revenue of $8.31 billion, while analysts polled by Refinitiv forecasted $1.98 and $7.58 billion. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv had penciled in a loss of 33 cents per share on $175 million of revenue. Palantir Technologies — Palantir Technologies slid 3.4% after the data analytics company reported its second-quarter results. Beyond Meat reported an adjusted loss of 83 cents per share on $102.1 million in revenue, while Refinitiv forecasted 86 cents and $108.4 million. Paramount Global — The media conglomerate's shares climbed more than 2% in premarket trading after the company reported a quarterly earnings and revenue beat.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, NASH, Banks, Moody's, Eli Lilly, EchoStar, Charlie Ergen, Refinitiv, Lucid, Palantir, Hims, Simon & Schuster, Yun Li, Samantha Subin, Sarah Min, Pia Singh, Jesse Pound Organizations: Sagimet, Goldman, T Bank, Citizens Financial, Bank of New York Mellon, Truist, JPMorgan Chase, Telsey, Refinitiv, Novo Nordisk —, Dish, United Parcel Service, behemoth, UPS, Palantir, Paramount Global, Paramount, KKR Locations: New York, Banks —
Investors could have reason to warm up to regional bank stocks. Over the past month, the regional bank fund has added nearly 17%. While the KRE is still well below its crisis-era lows from early May, some regional bank stocks seem to have swayed analysts that the worst is behind them. KRE 1M mountain The regional bank ETF over the past month. While the bank felt the pressure from the broader regional banking crisis, analysts aren't fleeing the stock.
Persons: aren't Organizations: Silicon Valley Bank, Regional Banking, CNBC, JPMorgan, FactSet, National, Western Alliance, WAL, Citizens Financial, Bancorp Locations: Republic
Here are the stocks making the biggest moves in midday trading Tuesday, June 6. Coinbase — Shares of the crypto exchange fell 12% after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued Coinbase on Tuesday. GitLab reported a 6-cent loss per share, better than the 14-cent loss per share the consensus anticipated, according to Refinitiv. Thor reported earnings of $2.24 per diluted share, while analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting $1.07 per share. HealthEquity — The stock added about 11.6% the day after the company beat expectations on earnings and gave positive full-year guidance.
Persons: Coinbase, GitLab, Refinitiv, Thor, FactSet, Zions Bancorporation, KeyCorp, McCormick, Smucker, , Alex Harring, Yun Li, Samantha Subin Organizations: U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Industries, Thor Industries, Comerica, KeyCorp, Regional Bank ETF, Bank of America, VF Corp, Locations: KeyCorp —, California
U.S. stocks may be setting up for a sharp late spring/early summer rally if the U.S. debt ceiling debate is rendered moot, either by an agreement or a decision to kick the can until after Labor Day, a note from JPMorgan’s trading desk said Thursday. That's a contrarian view running counter to the market's latest doldrums, but JPMorgan said the economic backdrop plus the way in which professional investors are positioned may add fuel to any potential advance. The so-called pain trade that catches the greatest number of investors off guard "is higher, specifically if led by cyclical stocks such as energy, financials, industrials and materials. JPMorgan also looks for a potential reversal in financial stocks if deposits don't flee. It notes that the regional bank ETF is 8% below its April average and 64% beneath its year-to-date high and that short interest in financials has ballooned, possibly paving the way for a huge short squeeze.
U.S. stock futures were flat on Wednesday night as Wall Street hoped that the debt ceiling crisis would soon see a resolution. Futures linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures declined by 0.05% and 0.02%, respectively. Investors' sentiment seemed to rise after Washington leaders indicated that they are moving forward on debt ceiling talks. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo's head of equity strategy Chris Harvey was skeptical that progress has been made in Washington on the debt ceiling talks. We think people are getting too excited about the debt ceiling in the short term.
Why the inflows? A 'two-sided equation' for bank ETFs
  + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
"It's a two-sided equation here," Reggie Browne, principal of GTS, told Bob Pisani on CNBC's 'ETF Edge' on Monday. "If you look at the entire suite of regional bank ETFs, they're picking up assets." While regional bank ETFs continue to tumble, the funds still netted more than $105 million in inflows within the past month, according to FactSet. Flows were largely into the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) , which pulled in $108 million during the same period. The dividend yield on the KRE stands at 3.84%, while the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) offers 3.59%.
The full moon, otherwise known as a strawberry supermoon, is seen over the Skyline of the CBD in Sydney, Australia June 15, 2022. Asia-Pacific markets fell as banking fears were reignited on Wall Street, sending the three major U.S. indexes into a four day losing streak. Regional bank shares sold off, with the SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) dropping more than 5% and some banks seeing volatile trading. Futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index stood at 19,904, pointing to a lower open compared to its last close of 19,948.73. China's Caixin services purchasing managers index for April will be published later today, a day after the Caixin manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory.
CNBC Daily Open: Fear, not fundamentals
  + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Regional bank stocks continued tumbling Thursday; shares of PacWest and Western Alliance were halted more than once. At one point on Thursday, every stock in the KRE traded lower as investors sold off regional banks. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
CNBC Daily Open: Trading on fear, not fundamentals
  + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Regional bank stocks continued tumbling Thursday; shares of PacWest and Western Alliance were halted more than once. At one point on Thursday, every stock in the KRE traded lower as investors sold off regional banks. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
The selloff in regional banks may have created a buying opportunity for certain investors in some of the safer, large-cap names, UBS said in a note Thursday. PacWest is the latest regional bank to lead the sector lower following the news late Wednesday that it is weighing its options , including a possible sale. The rout began in March with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and subsequent deposit outflows in regional banks. However, regional banks were under pressure again Thursday. The SPDR S & P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) dropped more than 8%.
Ackman didn't provide specifics on how he thinks a deposit guarantee program would work, but he said one is essential to restore investor confidence in regional banks. That has put pressure on midsize banks, and the S & P Regional Bank ETF has fallen 40% year to date. Short sellers have ganged up on some regional banks on the prospect that even those that are rescued or merged will see stock holders wiped out. "Renewed stress among regional bank stocks after market close may cause [Washington, D.C.] to reconsider priorities," Mayo said in a client note. "Unfortunately, there is a significant disconnect between the renewed pressure on regional banks and DC's posture," Mills said in a note.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailETF Edge: More money going into regional bank ETFs despite falling pricesCNBC's Bob Pisani with Reggie Brown, GTS Principal, joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss the regional bank fallout impact on financial ETFs.
Five reasons why regional bank stock investors are worried
  + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Many regional banks, like Zions, KeyCorp and US Bancorp, were trading at their lowest levels since the Great Financial Crisis in early 2009. Repricing of commercial real estate (CRE) loans is a major issue, given how top-heavy many regional banks are in this space. "Owners of bank stocks are asking, 'Why am I here?,'" one bank analyst who asked to remain anonymous told me. He has a point: the SPDR Regional Bank ETF (KRE), a basket of large regional banks, began trading in mid-2006. You heard right: a basket of regional banks is 20% lower than 17 years ago.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 24: A person walks past a First Republic bank branch in Manhattan on April 24, 2023 in New York City. First Republic , JPMorgan Chase — First Republic shares and were halted after JPMorgan Chase acquired the ailing bank and most of its assets after regulators seized control. General Motors — The automaker gained 2% after Morgan Stanley upgraded General Motors to overweight from equal weight and called the stock oversold. — Regional bank stocks were volatile on Monday as investors reacted to the seizure and sale of First Republic Bank over the weekend. However, management said on the company earnings call Monday that demand for loans originating from the fourth quarter would see a lower monetization level due to higher interest.
A couple signs of stability for those worried about the banking crisis: regional bank stocks are mostly up this week, and inflows into money market funds have reversed. The Regional Bank ETF (KRE) is still 25% lower than it was in early March. Another sign of calm: money market inflows have stopped. Total assets in money market funds fell by $68.64 billion in the week ended April 19, according to the Investment Company Institute. From late February to early April, net assets of money market funds increased by about 10%, to $5.27 trillion.
Some of the biggest exchange traded funds focused on banks and other financial stocks are seeing solid interest from investors as the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank recede in the rearview mirror. The SPDR Regional Bank ETF (KRE) , which has had volatile but still net positive flows since the SVB collapse, scooped up another $241 million over the past week. The new inflows come just ahead of earnings season for the banks. Many analysts expect the reports to show that depositors moved their cash from small regional banks and parked it at larger banks that are perceived to be safer. KBWB YTD mountain Bank ETFs are seeing interest but not yet rebounding.
There may not be a recession yet, but there is certainly an earnings recession. What Treasury yields are saying Treasury yields resumed falling last week in response to the weaker data. Earnings season Speaking of earnings, first quarter earnings season start this week, with earnings for the S & P 500 expected to decline 5.2%, according to Refinitiv. That's an earnings recession. You have to go back to Q1-Q3 of 2020 to see three consecutive quarters of earnings decline.
First Citizens shares hit record high in wake of SVB purchase
  + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
March 28 (Reuters) - Shares of First Citizens BancShares Inc (FCNCA.O) climbed to a record high on Tuesday, extending gains for a second day after scooping up the assets of failed peer Silicon Valley Bank. First Citizens BancShares rebounds to record highFirst Citizens rallied as much as 7.2%, briefly hitting an all-time peak of $959.99 before paring gains. Investors sent a record net $236 million into the iShares Regional Bank ETF (IAT.P) over the last two weeks, evidence that some investors are betting on a rebound in fundamentally strong regional lenders following the recent sell-off. Policymakers, regulators and central banks have emphasized that the turmoil is not a precursor to another global financial crisis. Shares of SVB Financial Group , which operated Silicon Valley Bank, traded on Tuesday as an over-the-counter stock and were last at 28 cents per shares, down from about $268 before the bank's collapse, an all but complete loss for its shareholders.
The ETF has slumped nearly 26% since March 8, when SVB's troubles became known, while the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index (.SPSIRBK) is down around 23%. Concerns over deposit flight are still swirling around some regional banks. He owns shares of large regional banks including Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG.N), which have fallen about 22% so far this year, and US Bancorp (USB.N), which are down some 18%. Margie Patel, a senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, has been adding new positions in regional banks over the last few weeks, citing "value." Regional banks "need positive news that shows their deposits are holding firm or growing," said Rick Meckler, a partner at family office Cherry Lane Investments.
Solar stocks Enphase and SolarEdge were also among the best performing stocks as investors continued weighing how the Inflation Reduction Act could boost solar companies. The average price target on the stock implies upside of 49.3% over the next 12 months. The stock's average price target implies it could rally 29.5%. Around three-fifths of analysts rate the stock a buy with a price target that implies a potential 16.7% rally. Technology stocks made up the majority of the list this week as investors bet growth stocks could benefit in an environment with lower interest rates.
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