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(Both men already hold sizable amounts of Alibaba stock.) Alibaba itself bought back $9.5 billion worth of stock last year, reducing its share count by over 3 percent. The stock purchases will probably bring attention back to Ma, a former English teacher who helped start Alibaba as an e-commerce platform. Ma, who hasn’t held a management role at Alibaba or Ant in years but remains a lifetime partner in the Alibaba Partnership, now largely focuses on Bill Gates-style philanthropy. And she’s expected to take swipes at Trump’s economic record as president.

Persons: Tsai, Ma, Alibaba, Ant, hasn’t, Bill Gates, Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, Eric Rosengren, Robert Kaplan, Kaplan, Rosengren, Archer, Daniels, Vikram Luthar, Scott Stuber, Spike Lee, Martin Scorsese, Jane Campion, Stuber, Ted Sarandos, Netflix’s, Bela Bajaria, Biden’s, Janet Yellen, Lael Brainard, they’re, Biden, ” Ray Fair Organizations: Pool Management, Alibaba, Brooklyn Nets, New York Liberty, Nets, Boston Fed, Dallas Fed, Republican, Biden, Yale, Times Locations: U.S, Hong Kong, China, Ma, Beijing, ’, Paris, New Hampshire, Dixville

☆ The Fed’s Decisions Now Could Alter the 2024 Elections
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Jeff Sommer | More About Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

What’s happening in the economy now will have a big effect — perhaps, a decisive one — on the presidential election and control of Congress in 2024. Right now, that model, created and run by Ray Fair, a Yale economist, shows that the 2024 national elections are very much up for grabs. The economy is strong enough for the incumbent Democrats to win the popular vote for the presidency and Congress next year, Professor Fair’s projections find. Persistent — though declining — inflation also gives the Republicans a reasonable chance of victory, the model shows. Both outcomes are within the model’s margin for error.

Persons: Ray Fair, it’s Organizations: Yale

☆ The cult of Emily Oster
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Sarah Todd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +30 min

Emily Oster is sitting in the back of a car, checking her Garmin watch as we lurch through rush-hour traffic toward the Holland Tunnel. A self-described expert in data, Oster uses her economics training to dig into studies on things like circumcision and screen time and translate them for popular consumption. There doesn't seem to be much of a gap between the way Oster presents herself in her books and newsletters and the way she conducts her life. Unsurprisingly, economics informs every aspect of the way Oster sees the world. When Oster was a toddler, her mother told a Yale colleague that Oster often talked to herself before falling asleep.

Persons: Emily Oster, doesn't, Oster, Taylor Swift, Spock, —, Mandy Moore, Emily DiDonato, Amy Schumer, " Oster, Emily, Aisha McAdams, Claudia Goldin, who's, Lori Feldman, " Feldman, Winter, It's, reopenings, Timothy Caulfield, Oster's Brown, OSTER, She's, Sheryl Sandberg's, Brown, Denis Tangney Jr, graham, Eminem, Sharon Oster, Ray Fair, Jesse Shapiro, Katherine Nelson, Carl, Choate Rosemary Hall, John F, Kennedy, Glenn Close, Ivanka Trump, Goldin, Steven Levitt —, Oster —, Paul Farmer, Steven Levitt, Oster's, Levitt, Robert Barro, demographer Monica Das Gupta, Joseph Delaney, she'd, I've, Matt Notowidigdo, Chicago Booth, hadn't, Udo Salters, Patrick McMullan, Shapiro, Jessica Calarco, Dr, Anthony Fauci, Donald Trump, Calarco, Rochelle Walensky, Delaney, University of Manitoba epidemiologist, Abigail Cartus, Justin Feldman, Delivette Castor, they're, COVID, Castor, Notowidigdo, Carter, you'd, she's, there's Organizations: Garmin, Brown University, New York Times, American Academy of Pediatrics, Yorker, Yale School of Management, Yale, Harvard, Connecticut, Choate, University of Chicago, Forbes, Wall, Publicly, University of Manitoba, Getty, Oster, Centers for Disease Control, Columbia University, Harvard Business School Locations: Holland, Montclair , New Jersey, Montclair, Harvard, Providence , Rhode Island, New Haven , Connecticut, China, Canada, Chicago, Ohio, New Jersey

☆ Opinion | Will the Economy Make or Break Biden in 2024?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

I asked Fair if it was fair to say that polarization of voters has weakened the predictive value of economic indicators. He acknowledged that Trump, an especially polarizing figure, had underperformed in both 2016 and 2020 given economic conditions that the Fair model considered favorable to him. But he said he’s not convinced that his economic model has lost its predictive power. A good example of why it’s dangerous to over-rely on economic models is what happened in the spring of 2020, when Covid hit. Fair is sticking to forecasting the popular vote because he thinks it’s of academic interest.

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