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☆ The Iowa Counties Where Trump’s Support Grew the Most
  + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Max Rust | Randy Yeip | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Change in Trump’s share of the vote from 2016 to 2024Change in Trump’s share of the vote from 2016 to 2024Change in Trump’s share of the vote from 2016 to 2024Donald Trump notched a convincing win in the Iowa caucuses, besting his nearest rival by nearly 30 points and more than doubling his support in the state from 2016, when he lost to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz . The decisive victory had Trump winning 98 of the state’s 99 counties—losing Johnson County to Nikki Haley by a single vote. The Republican front-runner saw his biggest improvement over 2016 in counties that reflected his core supporters: older voters, those without a college degree, lower-income voters and evangelicals.
Persons: Donald Trump, Republican Sen, Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley Organizations: Republican, Trump, — Locations: Iowa, Johnson
☆ How the 2024 Election Could Be the Closest in a Generation
  + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Randy Yeip | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The two parties are heading into neck-and-neck races next year to control all three levers of elected power in Washington—the House, the Senate and the presidency. That isn’t often the case. Until 1995, Democrats held the House majority for 40 years, with an average margin of more than 80 seats. They won the Senate majority in 1954 and retained it until the 1980 election. This year, the Democrats’ hold on the Senate and the Republican majority in the House are both at risk, while polls point to a close race for the White House.
Organizations: Senate, ’, Republican, White Locations: Washington
☆ Sizing Up the 2024 Republican Primary Field
  + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( James Benedict | Randy Yeip | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
As candidates for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination make their candidacies official, the contours of the campaign are taking shape. The GOP field includes Donald Trump, who jumped into the race immediately after the 2022 midterms, along with former Trump allies such as former Vice President Mike Pence and those increasingly critical of the former president.
Persons: Donald Trump, Mike Pence Organizations: GOP, Trump
☆ Jan. 6 Capitol Attack: The Rioters’ Legal Reckoning, Visualized
  + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Randy Yeip | Sadie Gurman | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/jan-6-capitol-attack-the-rioters-legal-reckoning-visualized-af640d5c
☆ Midterm Elections Produce More States Controlled by One Party
  + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Rosie Ettenheim | Randy Yeip | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
After weeks of uncertainty, New Hampshire Republicans emerged this week with a slim majority in the state House of Representatives following midterm elections. With the GOP retaining control of the state House and Senate and the governorship, New Hampshire brings to 39 the number of states with a governing trifecta—one party holding a majority in both legislative chambers while also occupying the governor’s mansion. It is the most trifectas since 1947. Democrats now hold 17 state trifectas, compared with 22 held by Republicans, after the party flipped legislative chambers in Minnesota and Michigan and governorships in Massachusetts and Maryland. The GOP flipped one governorship, in Nevada, loosening Democrats’ grip on a state where that party maintained control of both legislative chambers.
☆ 2022 Senate Results Turned on Meaningful Shifts From 2020
  + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Randy Yeip | Stephanie Stamm | Emma Brown | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
In retaining their seats in Nevada and Arizona, while picking up a Republican-held seat in Pennsylvania, Democrats clinched control of the Senate even as the race in Georgia remains undecided. If Sen. Raphael Warnock is able to hold his seat in a Dec. 6 runoff against Republican Herschel Walker , Democrats will have actually gained a seat in a year in which Republicans hoped President Biden’s low approval rating would hand them the reins of both chambers of Congress.
☆ Midterm Elections Point to Closely Divided House as Voters Shift in Pivotal Districts
  + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Randy Yeip | Stephanie Stamm | James Benedict | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Many Republicans managed to run ahead of former President Donald Trump’s 2020 performance in their districts. The shift in voter preferences can be seen in those districts that most directly reflect the national mood. The partisan voter index, or PVI, compares the vote in each congressional district with that of the nation, based on the past two presidential elections. For example, Mr. Trump’s average share of the vote in 2016 and 2020 was 49% in Michigan’s 8th congressional district. That is one point better than his average share of the vote nationally across those two elections, giving the district a PVI of R+1.
☆ How 2022 Midterm Polls Performed in Senate Races
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Andrew Mollica | Randy Yeip | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
While control of the Senate remains in the balance, Democrats on Tuesday ran ahead of expectations set by pre-election poll averages. Across the eight most competitive races, Democrats on average did about three points better than the final poll averages calculated by Real Clear Politics. And a number of those averages camouflage a wide disparity among individual polls. Races that have been calledIn the closing weeks of the campaign, polls suggested momentum was moving toward Republicans in places like New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, but Democrats in both states won by decent margins. And Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin was thought to be comfortably ahead.
☆ 2022 House and Senate Election Outlook
  + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Randy Yeip | Danny Dougherty | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Forecasts for congressional contests are rated on a scale from safely Democratic or Republican to tossup, based on combined ratings from the Cook Political Report; Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales; and Larry Sabato ’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. States rated “likely” for each party aren’t considered competitive but have potential for movement. Those rated as “leaning” one way or the other are competitive, but one party has an advantage.
☆ Which Voters Will Show Up for the 2022 Midterm Elections?
  + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Andrew Mollica | Randy Yeip | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
While the recruitment of new supporters is important to Republican and Democratic strategies in the midterm elections, boosting turnout among base voters can be even more crucial to each party’s success. Balloting in contests between presidential elections typically draws fewer voters, and midterm elections historically skew white and older. But turnout rates in the past two elections are resetting expectations.
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