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The government may fall short of its divestment goal by 300 billion rupees ($3.60 billion) in 2023/24, two government sources told Reuters. New Delhi had targeted 510 billion rupees from divestment proceeds for the current fiscal year that ends March, 2024. So far this year, the government has received 80 billion rupees through stake sales, according to government data. The government expects to surpass its 430 billion rupees dividend target and has so far received 203 billion rupees from state-run firms. "As long as the government is meeting its fiscal targets and there isn't a shortfall, missing divestment targets is fine," said Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays Investment Bank.
Persons: Niharika Kulkarni, Narendra Modi's, Subhash Chandra Garg, Rahul Bajoria, Nikunj Ohri, Sam Holmes Organizations: IDBI, REUTERS, Reuters, IDBI Bank, NMDC Steel, Reserve Bank of India, NMDC, Barclays Investment Bank, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, DELHI, New Delhi, Chhattisgarh
According to the median forecast (INGDPQ=ECI) in a Reuters poll of economists, India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.7% in the past quarter, up from 6.1% growth in the previous quarter and its fastest expansion since April-June 2022. Reuters GraphicsStrong growth in India's services sector, which makes up more than half of its economic output, has helped Asia's third-largest economy buck the global slowdown that has left many major economies, including China, stuttering. S&P Global India services Purchasing Managers' Index (INPMIS=ECI) has remained firmly above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction for nearly two years, the longest stretch since August 2011. To support growth, Indian government has been front-loading its annual spending on infrastructure. Additionally, slowing global growth and exports and a comparison with higher growth rates a year ago will also weigh on growth in quarters ahead.
Persons: Manoj Kumar, Suvodeep Rakshit, Kaushik Das, Rahul Bajoria, Aftab Ahmed, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: REUTERS, DELHI, P Global, Deutsche Bank's, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Faridabad, New Delhi, India, China, P Global India
That will hit the vast majority of India's population who make up the poor and middle classes. The Aug. 3-8 Reuters poll of 53 economists predicted the consumer price index (CPI) (INCPIY=ECI) rose at an annual rate of 6.40% in July. "There are no signs of any sequential moderation in food prices in August," noted Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays. If the poll median is correct, the current surge in inflation was likely to outstrip the 5.2% the RBI projects for this quarter. The survey also showed wholesale price inflation (INWPI=ECI), the change in producer prices, likely fell 2.70% year-on-year in July, after a 4.12% decline in June.
Persons: Rahul Bajoria, Kunal Kundu, Milounee Purohit, Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Reserve Bank of India's, Barclays, Societe Generale, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India
The monetary policy committee (MPC) retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50% in a unanimous decision. With the likely softening of CPI to the low- to mid-5% levels in the coming month, the current repo rate of 6.5% implies that India’s real policy rate will hover around 1% during 2023-24, while maintaining a policy rate differential of about 1.5% with the US. Room for additional rate hikes has been retained with MPC’s policy stance continuing to remain unchanged at ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. We believe the bar for future rate hikes has increased, especially since near-term prints of CPI will be sub 6%. Scope for further hikes is limited given our growth-inflation outlook and impact of the past rate hikes on the same.
MUMBAI, Feb 14 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was poised to open higher against the U.S. dollar, tracking a broad pullback on the currency in the lead-up to key U.S. inflation data due later on Tuesday. The non-deliverable forward market indicated an opening of around 82.60 for the rupee compared with 82.7175 in the previous session. Intraday position takers were not likely to chase the USD/INR pair lower at open, a spot trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. The overnight risk of the U.S. data and India's surprise on inflation would mean little follow-through after the open, he added. Asian currencies were mostly higher ahead of data that is expected to show that U.S. inflation had eased.
NEW DELHI, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Annual growth in the Indian economy likely slowed in the July-September quarter as COVID distortions faded, economists said ahead of GDP data due on Wednesday that will provide clues about its resilience in the face of global economic turmoil. Asia's third-largest economy is expected to post annual growth of 6.2% in the three months to Sept. 31, according to a Reuters poll, down from explosive growth of 13.5% in the previous quarter, which was inflated by comparison with weak activity during COVID-19 lockdowns. Ghosh, however, said annual GDP growth in the period could be slightly slower than the consensus expectation of over 6% as companies have seen a decline in margins and industrial production increased at an annual pace of only 1.5% on average last quarter, its weakest in two years. Consumption has also improved, which suggests that momentum on a non-seasonally adjusted basis is likely to be stronger in the July-September quarter than in the previous three months, economists said. "On a sequential (non seasonally adjusted) basis, July-September GDP is likely to increase, reversing the contraction seen in the prior three months," said Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays.
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