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A calmer tone set in later on Wednesday, with bond yields retreating. In the U.S. Treasury market -- considered the bedrock of the global financial system -- 10-year yields have jumped as much as 20 basis points (bps) to 4.8% this week alone. Bond yields move inversely to prices, and many asset managers who had held bonds expecting prices to rally are now throwing in the towel. Australian and Canadian 10-year bond yields have surged over 20 bps each this week , , and British 30-year government bond yields hit a fresh 25-year high above 5% on Wednesday . , ,World stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) hit their lowest since April on Wednesday, and the cost of insuring exposure to a basket of European corporate junk bonds hit a five-month high, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Persons: Bond, Juan Valenzuela, Artemis, Kevin McCarthy, Jason Lee, Michael Metcalfe, Vikram Aggarwal, that's, Everybody's, you've, Richard McGuire, McGuire, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli, Chiara Elisei, Marc Jones, Andy Bruce, Kim Coghill, Toby Chopra Organizations: bund, U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, Reuters, ADP, U.S . House, Congress, Hong, REUTERS, Street Global Markets, P Global Market Intelligence, Jupiter, New York Fed, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, British, U.S, Hong Kong, London

In the U.S. Treasury market -- considered the bedrock of the global financial system -- 10-year yields have jumped 20 basis points (bps) to 4.8% this week alone. Bond yields move inversely to prices, and asset managers who had held bonds expecting prices to rally are now throwing in the towel. Australian and Canadian 10-year bond yields have surged over 20 bps each this week , , and British 30-year government bond yields hit a fresh 25-year high above 5% on Wednesday . In a further sign of investor nervousness, the closely-watched MOVE bond volatility index is at a four-month high. (.MOVE)Rise in global yields beyond 10yr average levels Rise in global yields beyond 10yr average levelsRIPPLESGovernment borrowing costs influence everything from mortgage rates for homeowners to loan rates for companies.

Persons: Jason Lee, Bond, Juan Valenzuela, Artemis, Vikram Aggarwal, that's, Everybody's, you've, Richard McGuire, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli Chiara Elisei, Andy Bruce, Kim Coghill, Toby Chopra Organizations: Hong, REUTERS, U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, Reuters, P Global Market Intelligence, Jupiter, New York Fed, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, Treasuries, British

☆ Instant View: World's biggest bond markets hit by wave of selling, then bounce
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Jordanian Dinar, Yuan, Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Pound and Riyals banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken June 13, 2017. JP Morgan analyst Sin Beng Ong in a note on the pressure it was putting on emerging Asia markets. RICHARD MCGUIRE, HEAD OF RATES STRATEGY, RABOBANK, LONDON:“The markets reflect effectively flying blind because the models don't work, everybody's been calling for a recession that just simply refuses to arrive. "Our view is that the U.S. economy slows into next year... so from that perspective, at some point, we expect it (bond market selloff) to normalise." (Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Yuan, Dado Ruvic, BENG ONG, JP Morgan, Sin Beng Ong, RICHARD MCGUIRE, everybody's, you've, VIKRAM AGGARWAL, ” JUAN VALENZUELA, ARTEMIS, ”, ” NICK NELSON Organizations: REUTERS, OF, JPMORGAN, RABOBANK, LONDON, Federal Reserve, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, ASIA, SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S

That threw a new curveball at UK markets, as just last week economists polled by Reuters had unanimously expected the BoE to raise by 25 basis points. I would not be surprised if we see a 50-bp rate rise from the Bank of England tomorrow." Other analysts said delivering a larger rate rise on Thursday risked further undermining the BoE's messaging. Bets on where BoE rate hikes might peak rose as high as 6% on Wednesday. The rise in yields hit UK housebuilders (.FTNMX402020), which were down as much as 3.1%.

Persons: BoE, Melanie Baker, Liz, Nick Rees, Richard McGuire, Rabobank's McGuire, Yoruk Bahceli, William Schomberg, Dhara Ranasinghe, Danilo Masoni, Alun John, Peter Graff Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Royal London Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wednesday's, MPC, FX, Monex, Rabobank, Sterling, Thomson Locations: Monex Europe

☆ Bank of England set to raise rates to 4.75% as inflation slow to fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

However, Neiss thinks the BoE is unlikely to raise interest rates as much as markets have priced in. In a Reuters poll this week, economists predicted the BoE would raise interest rates just twice more, taking rates to a peak of 5% by August or September. The BoE faces three big challenges when assessing how much more rate tightening it needs to do. Fewer households have mortgages and more are on fixed rates - so a key channel for higher interest rates to affect the economy now operates with a delay. "If the Bank of England accelerated policy tightening now, that would smack of panic or a loss of control," McGuire said.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, BoE, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Katharine Neiss, Neiss, Christine Lagarde, Richard McGuire, Swati Dhingra, Silvana Tenreyro, Megan Greene, Tenreyro, McGuire, Yoruk Bahceli, David Milliken, Toby Chopra Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, of, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Italy, Fed, ECB, Reuters, homebuyers, Rabobank, MPC, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, of England

☆ Stocks edge higher, dollar sags eyeing Fed pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

On an annual basis, consumer prices rose 4%, the smallest in more than two years, slowing from April's 4.9%. That has crystallised traders' views that the Fed is unlikely to hike rates later on Wednesday. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both up 0.2%, setting Wall Street for further gains after U.S. stocks rallied to 14-month highs overnight. That supported the euro , which was up 0.1% to $1.0850, hovering just below Tuesday's three-week high of $1.08235. German two-year bond yields touched a fresh high since March ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank rates decision.

Persons: Richard McGuire, Jim Reid, Stocks, Yoruk Bahceli, Stella Qiu, Jacqueline Wong, Sharon Singleton, Chizu Organizations: Sterling, U.S . Federal, U.S, CPI, Nasdaq, Rabobank, Deutsche Bank, Bank of, Thursday's European Central Bank, Brent, International Energy Agency, Tokyo's Nikkei, Thomson Locations: London, Asia

Signs of calm and stability in banking stocks, which have tanked in the past week following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), soon paved way for renewed selling as Credit Suisse shares fell to record lows. Reuters GraphicsThe STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index fell 1.67%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) fell 51.58 points, or 2.91%Investors rushed back into safe haven investments. "The Credit Suisse share price is falling and government bonds are rallying on the back of that. Markets are "spooked" by Credit Suisse headlines, said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Rabobank in London. "For today Credit Suisse is the dish of the day but we don't think this will be a longer lasting trend," he said.

[1/3] Switzerland's national flag flies above a logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse in front of a branch office in Bern, Switzerland November 29, 2022. Reuters GraphicsThe STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index fell 1.29%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) fell 44.48 points, or 2.51%. "The Credit Suisse share price is falling and government bonds are rallying on the back of that. Markets are "spooked" by Credit Suisse headlines, said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Rabobank in London. "For today Credit Suisse is the dish of the day but we don't think this will be a longer lasting trend," he said.

☆ Credit Suisse unease sparks selloff in world stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] Switzerland's national flag flies above a logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse in front of a branch office in Bern, Switzerland November 29, 2022. Reuters GraphicsEurope's bank index has now seen more than 120 billion euros evaporate ($127.08 billion) in since March 8. "The Credit Suisse share price is falling and government bonds are rallying on the back of that. Markets are "spooked" by Credit Suisse headlines, said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Rabobank in London. "For today Credit Suisse is the dish of the day but we don’t think this will be a longer lasting trend," he said.

☆ Recession alarm bells are ringing, but (much) less loudly than before
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Feb 10 (Reuters) - The rapid reopening of China's economy, plunging European gas prices and cooling U.S. inflation suggest a global recession may not be as deep and protracted as feared just weeks ago. The International Monetary Fund raised its 2023 global growth outlook and a painful euro area recession that was once seen as all-but-certain is less of a concern. Citi sees a 30% chance of a global recession this year, down from 50% in the second half of last year. But rallying stocks do not mean the world will escape a recession, rather that China's post-COVID economic reopening should limit the downturn. And economists polled by Reuters forecast global growth would barely clear 2% this year, a level associated with significant downturns historically, and flagged the risk that it could be even slower.

European stocks have vastly outperformed their U.S. peers. The euro STOXX (.STOXXE) benchmark has beaten its U.S. peer, the S&P 500 (.SPX), by over 18 percentage points since September. "It's a very big move in European gas prices and that has dramatically improved the outlook. "Lower gas prices are surely a positive, but their rapid fall also tell us that they can rise just as fast should things go wrong. A closely watched index of European corporate credit (.MERER00) has seen its yield fall nearly 50 basis points this year.

As Truss spoke on Friday gains made in anticipation of the corporation tax U-turn faded. Ten-year gilt yields were 40 bps above session lows hit earlier on Friday, also pushed up by moves in bond yields globally. UNDERWHELMEDBritain's mini-budget three weeks ago triggered some of the biggest ever jumps in British bond yields, exposed vulnerabilities in the pensions sector -- undermining the country's financial stability. "How it impacts liquidity on the gilt market going forward is something we are monitoring closely." Rabobank's McGuire said pressure on UK assets could lead the BoE to re-intervene in the bond market or delay its quantitative tightening, bond-selling plans.

☆ UK pensions: There's no quick fix for the market mess
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Almost 20 days after Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled his much-criticized plan to jumpstart the economy, sparking an investor revolt, the UK bond market and the British pound remain under huge stress — despite three emergency interventions by the central bank. The country’s central bank is in a difficult position. It’s trying to restore the UK government’s lost credibility in markets, though its toolkit isn’t designed for this kind of effort. “Investment consultants are working feverishly.”Ongoing volatility in the bond market is further complicating those efforts, as rising yields once again put hedging strategies at risk. Yet as bond yields keep rallying, not everyone is convinced that approach makes sense.

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