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Asia's imports of seaborne thermal coal climbed to 75.77 million metric tons in October from 70.29 million in September, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. The October volume was also above the 69.63 million metric tons imported in the same month last year. While physical demand for seaborne thermal coal is solid in Asia, the same can't be said for prices. China mainly buys thermal coal from the two biggest exporters, Indonesia and Australia. Overall, the combination of weaker Chinese domestic prices and waning European demand may prove sufficient to keep pressure on seaborne thermal coal prices in Asia, even if volumes remain solid.

Persons: Loren Elliott, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Rights, Argus, Newcastle, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Owen, Ravensworth, Australia, Rights LAUNCESTON, Asia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Beijing, Canberra, Europe, Ukraine, Turkey, South Africa, U.S

Since March, seaborne imports of thermal coal have exceeded 28 million metric tons every month, except for the 27.63 million from June, according to Kpler. In 2022, seaborne imports of thermal coal only once breached the 24 million metric tons level, in November, and were below 20 million for eight of the 12 months. China's July coal production was 377.54 million metric tons, which was down 6.3% from June, with the lower output coming as China increases mine safety inspections. China thermal coal imports from Australia, Indonesia and RussiaAUSTRALIAN IMPORTSChina has returned to buying Australian thermal coal after Beijing ended its unofficial ban on such imports, imposed in mid-2020 amid a political dispute with Canberra. China's imports of Australian thermal coal are estimated at 4.89 million metric tons in August, down from a three-year high of 5.41 million.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Stephen Coates Organizations: Huawei, REUTERS, Rights, Newcastle Port, Argus, Indonesia, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Shenmu, Yulin city, Shaanxi, China, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, Qinhuangdao, India, Indonesia, Russia AUSTRALIAN, Beijing, Canberra, Newcastle, Kpler

To be sure, China's imports of thermal coal from Australia, the world's second-biggest coal exporter, still lag well behind the 19.29 million tonnes in April from top supplier Indonesia. Australian thermal coal also tends to head to southern ports, but the grade most often imported by China has a higher energy content than those from Indonesia, meaning Australian fuel tends to compete directly with local supplies. China and India imports of Australian thermal coalINDIA SWITCHES TO SOUTH AFRICAWhile China has been snapping up Australian thermal coal, volumes being shipped to India, the world's second-largest importer, have been slipping. India's total imports of thermal coal are expected to rise to 14.77 million tonnes in April, with Indonesia taking the lion's share at 9.66 million tonnes. As Australian thermal coal has left India's import mix, imports from rivals such as South Africa have moved higher.

China's coal imports leapt to a three-year high in March, with official data showing arrivals of 41.17 million tonnes, up 151% from the same month in 2022. China's coal imports from Australia were 2.73 million tonnes, with 2.13 million assessed as the thermal grade used in power plants, with 417,576 tonnes being coking coal used to make steel. Chinese utilities used to be major buyers of Australian thermal coal with an energy content of 5,500 kilocalories per kg (kcal/kg). This advantage is driving Chinese buying of Australian coal, with Kpler estimating that arrivals in April will reach 5.04 million tonnes, with thermal coal accounting for 4.72 million tonnes. The question for the seaborne coal market is whether China's renewed interest in Australian coal is a sustainable trend, or whether it is simply opportunistic buying that will wither if the price advantage slips.

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