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Whatever is driving it, the sheer size of the record short positions and the pace at which they are growing suggest the reversal, when it comes, could be powerful. Leveraged funds - those more likely to be active in the basis trade - grew their net short position by 149,000 contracts to 2.08 million, a new record. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsIn the two-year space, non-commercial accounts grew their net short position slightly to a new record 1.454 million contracts, and leveraged funds' net short position rose substantially to 1.716 million contracts, also a new record. A short position is essentially a bet that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet that it will rise. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsIf softer inflation and a more dovish U.S. central bank keep yields under downward pressure, funds' short Treasuries position is likely to come under increasing pressure too.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Futures Trading Commission, Reuters, Bank of America, UST, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, U.S

ICBC's U.S. unit told market participants on Friday it was hoping to finish the cyber review over the weekend, but the sources said they expected it would spill into next week. The cyberattack sent ripples through the U.S. Treasuries market, where ICBC acts as a broker for hedge funds and other market participants, helping them trade in the securities. The Chinese parent then injected capital into the U.S. unit, allowing it to settle the trades and pay back BNY Mellon, the sources said. They also told market participants about the capital injection but did not disclose the amount or the reason for it, the sources said. SIFMA, the trade group, organized calls for market participants with updates, the sources said.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, BNY Mellon, ransomware, ICBC, SIFMA, Janet Yellen, Lifeng, Scott Skyrm, Jack McIntyre, Harry Robertson, James Pearson, Naomi Rovinick, Yoruk, Davide Barbuscia, Chris Prentice, Mike Derby, Carolina Mandl, Laura Matthews, Paritosh, Zeba, Megan Davies, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alexander Smith, Richard Chang, Anna Driver Organizations: Asset Management, Fair for Trade, Services, REUTERS, Commercial Bank of China, U.S ., ICBC Financial Services, Securities Industry, Financial Markets Association, ICBC, Treasury, China, U.S, New York Federal Reserve, Securities, Depository Trust, Clearing Corp, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, ICBC's U.S, U.S, San Francisco, Treasuries, Hong Kong, Shanghai, London, Amsterdam, Carolina, New York

☆ The 30-year Treasury yield sharply rebounds amid sagging demand in latest government bond auction
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The 30-year Treasury yield surged to a peak of over 4.80% on Thursday. The move higher in yields comes after the recent auction was met with considerably weak demand. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe 30-year Treasury yield rose steeply on Thursday, spiking by as much as 15 basis points and rising back towards recent highs after steadily retreating in recent weeks. In Thursday's auction, the metric neared its lowest level in almost two years, Trading Economics reported. The sharp rise in bond yields snapped a winning streak among major US stock indexes.

Persons: —, hawkish, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, Dealers, Service, Federal, Trading Locations: Treasurys

☆ Investors can't get enough US debt as Treasury bills are bought at a record pace
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

In just the past three months, over $1 trillion in new Treasury bills have been purchased. Noncompetitive bidders bought a record-high $2.898 billion of six-month bills in mid-August, Bloomberg said. That suggests smaller investors are increasingly jumping into the market for short-term US debt. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Meanwhile, a whopping $7.6 trillion in interest-bearing US public debt will mature within a year, representing 31% of all outstanding government debt.

Persons: Louis Fed Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, Fed, St Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ NY Fed survey: Markets bet ahead of July FOMC expected rate rise would be last
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed next meets on Sept. 19-20, and futures markets currently expect no increase for that gathering. Primary dealers also thought ahead of the July 25-26 FOMC meeting that the Fed would be able to cut rates at the April 2024 meeting. By the final quarter of next year, primary dealers told the New York Fed they expect a 4% federal funds rate, while the market participant survey predicted 3.88%. Fed holdings peaked in the summer of 2022 at just shy of $9 trillion and currently stand at $8.3 trillion. On Wednesday, Fed officials released the meeting minutes from the July FOMC meeting that showed some division over the need for their last rate rise.

Persons: Michael S, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, Market Committee, Fed, New York Fed, Thomson

☆ The Fed's focus on 'real' rates is what investors should be watching
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Gauging the 'real' rate Chair Jerome Powell , following the July meeting, said his definition of real rates is the fed funds rate minus "near-term inflation expectations." With the fed funds rate running at 5.33% and the Michigan survey indicating one-year inflation expectations at 3.3%, that puts the real rate around 2%. Using the 10-year Treasury yield against the inflation rate, the real rate currently sits around 1.6% . The evidence, though, that higher real rates are holding back activity is mixed. Its focus on real rates could mean more hawkish policy, particularly if inflation expectations start rising again.

Persons: Nicholas Colas, Jerome Powell, Powell, Colas Organizations: DataTrek Research, University of Michigan, Fed, Primary Dealers Locations: Michigan

☆ Asia stocks drop to month low as US CPI fails to enthuse
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The yen touched a six-week low of 144.89 per dollar in early trade, though volumes were thinned owing to a public holiday in Japan. Its stock markets were closed and Treasuries went untraded in the Asia session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.7% with stocks in Hong Kong and China the biggest drag. Headline U.S. CPI was 0.2% last month, the same as a month earlier, and the details were encouraging - with core goods inflation slowing down and only rents proving stubbornly sticky. DOLLAR GAINSIn foreign exchange markets, choppy trade in the wake of the inflation data left the dollar on course for a weekly gain.

Persons: Issei Kato, Treasuries, Mary Daly, Andrew Lilley, Philip Lowe, Nozomu Ogawa, Sally Auld, JB, There's, HSI, Tom Westbrook, Muralikumar Anantharaman Organizations: REUTERS, SYDNEY, Headline U.S, CPI, San Francisco Fed, Yahoo Finance, Daiwa, Markets, HK, Chevron, Brent, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, China, Sydney, New York, Australia

☆ Asia stocks slip as US CPI fails to enthuse; dollar up
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. The yen touched a six-week low of 144.89 per dollar in early trade on Friday, though volumes were thinned owing to a public holiday in Japan. Its stock markets were closed and Treasuries went untraded in the Asia session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged 0.2% lower and headed for a 1% weekly loss. In stock markets, Chinese property stocks were taking a fresh beating on giant developer Country Garden (2007.HK), which is struggling with its debts, forecasting a $7.6 billion net loss in the first half.

Persons: Issei Kato, Treasuries, Mary Daly, Andrew Lilley, Sally Auld, JB, Tom Westbrook, Muralikumar Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., Headline U.S, CPI, San Francisco Fed, Yahoo Finance, U.S . Treasury, HK, Star Entertainment, Chevron, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Sydney, New York, Hong Kong, Alibaba, HK, New South Wales, Woodside, WDS.AX

☆ Morning Bid: Bonds droop as inflation cheer fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, August 1, 2023. Perhaps ask your friendly bond dealer, as traders in the world's deepest market quickly got over their excitement at steadying inflation, which held at 0.2% month-on-month. Yields went up along the curve, even if markets took the risk of another rate hike next month down a little. Yet the U.S. dollar held gains made overnight and took the yen back near levels that prompted intervention last year. Stocks there were back under pressure during Friday, with Alibaba (9988.HK) handing back gains on its solid result and property stocks sliding.

Persons: Tom Westbrook, Stocks, Treasuries, Joe Biden, Philip Lowe, Michelle Bullock, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, U.S ., HK, Chevron, PPI, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Asia, untraded, Tokyo, China, HK, Australia, Woodside, WDS.AX, Europe, joblessness

☆ US Treasury surveys dealers on auctions, buyback program
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

July 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department is asking primary dealers their views on what specific bonds it should issue more of when it needs to raise more funds through the bond market, and for details around how a likely bond repurchase program would work. The Treasury noted that it may need to “modestly” increase the size of some of its coupon-bearing debt auctions as soon as August and asked banks which maturities they expect to see increased, and how size increases should be managed across the Treasury curve. It also queried dealers on whether it should increase sales of floating-rate notes and/or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as part of this process. The Treasury also asked banks their opinions on details around a bond repurchase program that it has previously indicated is likely to begin in 2024. The questions are being posed as part of its regular survey of dealers before each of its quarterly refunding announcements.

Persons: Karen Brettell, Chizu Organizations: U.S . Treasury, Treasury, Securities, Thomson

☆ Market surveys show Wall Street expected less hawkish Fed outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The primary dealer survey was released on Thursday by the New York Fed and was joined by the survey of market participants, most of whom are large money managers. Respondents to that poll were also caught off guard by the Fed outlook and had projected the same Fed stopping point as the primary dealers. The dealer and market surveys also offered projections about the size of the Fed’s reverse repo facility. Mainly used by money funds, this tool finally saw inflows fall below $2 trillion per day last month, and they are widely expected to fall further as private market rates become more attractive and the Treasury ramps up issuance. Primary dealers reckon the daily reverse repo inflow will hit $1.119 trillion by the fourth quarter of 2024.

Persons: Lorie Logan, Logan, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: YORK, Reserve, Fed, Federal, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics Dealers, Dallas Fed, Columbia University, Treasury, Thomson

☆ Bank of England to take Bank Rate to 5.50% over next two meetings: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Last week, the central bank surprised investors by raising interest rates half a percentage point, taking Bank Rate to 5.00%, and said there had been "significant" news suggesting persistently high inflation in Britain would take longer to fall. Bank Rate is now expected to peak at 5.50% next quarter following 25 basis point hikes at the BoE's August and September meetings, medians in the poll taken after the Bank's Thursday move showed. In a June 14 poll, policymakers were expected to draw a halt at 5.00% next quarter. "Are they going to be happy with just one more 25 basis points in August? Forty of 52 poll participants said the Bank would dial down the pace to 25 basis points on August 3 but gave a high median 40% chance of another 50 basis point lift.

Persons: James Smith, Stefan Koopman, Jonathan Cable, Aditi Verma, Anitta Sunil, Christina Fincher Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, ING, Bank, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Britain

☆ Bank of England to press on with rate hikes, peak at 5.00% in Q3
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In December 2021 the BoE was one of the first major central banks to draw a line under its ultra-loose pandemic-era monetary policy. It has now raised borrowing costs by 440 basis points across 12 consecutive meetings in modest-sized rate rises. All 64 economists polled June 12-14 said the BoE would add another 25 basis points to Bank Rate on June 22, taking it to 4.75%. A majority of economists surveyed, 52 of 64, said Bank Rate will have peaked by end-August with the median forecast putting it at 5.00%. Although starting later, both the Fed and the European Central Bank have largely been raising rates in greater magnitudes than the BoE.

Persons: BoE, Ellie Henderson, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Jonathan Haskel, Catherine Mann, Megan Greene, Silvana Tenreyro, Stefan Koopman, Investec's Henderson, Jonathan Cable, Aditi Verma, Anitta Sunil, Ross Finley, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, Committee, Rabobank, U.S . Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Investec

☆ The Treasury Department may issue $1.6 trillion in T-bills this year as it rebuilds its coffers after the debt ceiling deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Treasury Department may issue $1.6 trillion in bills over the full year, Deutsche Bank said. That's as it looks to rebuild its cash balance following the debt ceiling crisis. On Friday, just before the debt limit bill was signed, the balance was just $23.4 billion. On Friday, just before the debt limit bill was signed, the cash balance in the TGA was just $23.4 billion, down from $140 billion in mid-May. By September, analysts expects the Treasury Department will have restored its cash balance to about $600 billion.

Persons: —, Joe Biden, That's Organizations: Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Service, Treasury Department, JPMorgan

☆ India's note withdrawal to improve liquidity, ease short-term rates - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Siddhi Nayak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, May 22(Reuters) - The Indian central bank's decision to withdraw its highest denomination currency note from circulation is likely to improve banking system liquidity, bringing down recently elevated short term rates, analysts and bankers said. Kotak Institutional Equities estimates that liquidity could improve by around 1 trillion rupees, depending on the behaviour of depositors, while QuantEco Research pegs the potential liquidity impact at 400 billion rupees to 1.1 trillion rupees. ICICI Securities Primary Dealership estimates the liquidity surplus could increase to 1.5-2 trillion rupees. India's banking system liquidity surplus has averaged above 600 billion rupees in May. About 2.5-3 trillion rupees of banking sector liquidity leaks out as currency in circulation each year, wrote Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC.

☆ India c.bank set to raise rates 25 bps on elevated inflation, keep hawkish stance
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The central bank has already raised rates by 250 basis points since May last year. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, was also expected to have stayed high between 6.05%-6.12% in February, according to estimates from three economists. "The policy space to focus on inflation is lent by domestic growth conditions holding-up, supported by urban consumption and services sector recovery," Sen Gupta said. Early signs of a slowdown in India are also visible in easing imports and plateuing bank credit demand. The Reuters Poll showed that a majority of respondents, 20 of 36, expect the central bank would maintain its 'withdrawal of accommodation' stance while the remaining 16 said it would shift to neutral.

That would come after the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday to follow through with a 50 basis point rise it pre-announced in February, prioritizing sticky inflation. Only five respondents in the latest Fed poll expected a pause, including four primary dealers, with only one bank, Nomura, expecting a 25 basis point cut. "The past week's financial turmoil will give the Fed some misgivings about pushing rates much higher," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. Mericle expects more hikes however, with a peak rate of 5.25%-5.50% in Q3, higher than the poll median. Meanwhile the labor market is showing few signs of weakness, with unemployment rate forecasts broadly lower compared with last month's poll.

☆ Exclusive: UK debt agency treads careful path to sell near-record volume of bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

After finance minister Jeremy Hunt announced his budget plans earlier on Wednesday, the DMO said it would need to sell 241.1 billion pounds ($291 billion) of government bonds in the 2023/24 financial year - the highest on record apart from 485.8 billion pounds sold in 2020/21. The Bank of England is no longer a buyer in the market, and instead is reducing its own gilt holdings by 80 billion pounds a year. "We can issue larger cash amounts in, for instance, a short-dated auction than in a long- or index-linked auction," Stheeman said. Over the coming year, the DMO aims to sell 86.7 billion pounds of short-dated bonds, 65.3 billion pounds of medium-dated, 50.1 billion pounds of long-dated gilts and 26.2 billion pounds of inflation-linked debt. The medium- and long-dated debt includes 10 billion pounds of 'green' bonds - a volume that is capped by the requirement for the government to designate investment projects which meet certain environmental criteria.

☆ India's 1-yr, 10-yr yield curve briefly inverts for first time in nearly eight years
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Dharamraj Dhutia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The 1-year bond yield, that trades close to the 364-day treasury bill yield, briefly rose to 7.4750% earlier in the day, while the 10-year benchmark 7.26% 2032 bond yield was at 7.4728%. The 1-year note last traded above the 10-year bond in May 2015, according to Refinitiv data. The 1-year yield eased to 7.43%, while the 10-year benchmark was at 7.46% as of 4:20 p.m. IST. On Feb. 28, Reuters reported that India's bond yield curve is likely to invert on the back of worsening liquidity deficit in India's banking system and bets of continued rate hikes. Reuters GraphicsThe benchmark 2032 bond yield has risen only 12 bps during the same period, leading to spread compression and ultimately inversion.

☆ India's HDFC raises $3 bln in largest-ever local bond issue-bankers
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Dharamraj Lalit Dhutia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MUMBAI, Feb 16 (Reuters) - India's Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC.NS) raised its target of 250 billion rupees ($3.03 billion) in the country's largest privately placed corporate bond issue on Thursday, merchant bankers said. The country's largest housing financier, soon to be merged with private lender HDFC Bank, sold 10-year bonds at a coupon of 7.97% coupon. The issue received 92 bids worth 278.63 billion rupees, of which the company retained 55 bids worth 250 billion rupees, HDFC said in an exchange notice. The NBFC has now raised an aggregate of 784.14 billion rupees through bond issuance in this financial year, the highest by any company. Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and ICICI Securities Primary Dealership are the arrangers.

☆ Indian lender HDFC's biggest-ever bond issue to see strong demand - bankers
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Dharamraj Lalit Dhutia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HDFC aims to raise at least 50 billion rupees ($603.4 million) through the sale of 10-year bonds on Thursday, with an option to retain an additional 200 billion rupees. If the company garners full the quantum, this would also be the biggest-ever privately placed debt issue by an Indian company. Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and ICICI Securities Primary Dealership are the arrangers for the bond issue. The company's fundraising via private placement stood below 250 billion rupees in 2013-14. HDFC is raising funds as it would help them meet capital requirements after the upcoming merger with HDFC Bank, bankers said.

☆ India's FY24 gross borrowing could be less than expected -economists
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MUMBAI (Reuters) - India’s central government’s gross market borrowings for 2023/24 could come in below market expectations as a pool of securities raised to compensate states for a shortfall in goods and services tax may not be rolled over, a few economists said. The government’s gross borrowing is expected to be a record 16 trillion rupees (about $196 billion) for the fiscal year through March 2024, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Once we knock these off, the ‘true’ gross borrowing comes to 15.8 trillion rupees,” the economists estimated. India borrowed 1.1 trillion rupees and 1.59 trillion rupees in 2020-21 and 2021-22, respectively, to lend to states and compensate for a revenue shortfall from tax collections. After adjusting for the redemption of such bonds in 2022-23, IDFC First Bank expects gross borrowing of 15.50 trillion rupees.

☆ India's first green bond issue pulls local bidders, foreigners aloof - traders
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Dharamraj Lalit Dhutia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Jan 25 (Reuters) - India's first sovereign green bond issue was mostly subscribed by local banks and insurance companies, with limited interest from foreign investors, market participants said. New Delhi raised 80 billion rupees ($981.31 million) via green bonds on Wednesday. The five-year 7.38% 2027 bond yield was at 7.15%, while the benchmark 7.26% 2032 bond yield was at 7.35% during the time of bidding. Local banks and mutual funds do not have a specific mandate to invest in green bonds and treat these at par with other sovereign bonds. Ahead of Wednesday's auction, the government had met foreign investors to gauge the demand, Reuters had reported.

BENGALURU, Jan 6 (Reuters) - A budget that accelerates fiscal consolidation would give more support to the Indian rupee in the near term, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts who forecast the currency would erase a fifth of last year's losses over the next 12 months. A majority of FX analysts, 11 of 17, said a Feb. 1 budget that focuses on fiscal consolidation would help the Indian rupee the most in the near term. None of the respondents expected the rupee to be stronger than 75 per dollar, where it started 2022, at any point this year. Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, said the "fiscal deficit is still too high and needs to be reduced" for the rupee to find some support. "High fiscal deficit will hurt the savings-investment balance, curb improvement in current account deficit, and complicate the RBI's efforts to temper inflation pressures."

The rupee finished last week 1.2% lower at 82.27 per dollar, tumbling swiftly from trading in the 81-handle initially. Considering that, the rupee is still expected to be "stuck" in a range, they added. Meanwhile, India's benchmark government bond yield ended last week at 7.2982%, with the 8 bps gain its biggest weekly rise since late-September. Yields are expected to move in a narrow range of 7.26%-7.36%, with high chances of the upper end being tested, said a fixed income trader. After the Fed meeting, traders will also watch out for the central bank's dot plot to see where terminal rates could go.

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