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The move they made is a big cut," SlateStone Wealth's Kenny Polcari told CNBC's " Street Signs Asia " on Sept. 19. Calling it a "crisis level cut," he added that "people [are] scratching their heads, going, what's it really mean?" Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the big rate cut does not signal that the risk of a recession is elevated. According to FactSet data, of the 20 analysts covering the stock, 18 give it a buy or overweight rating, while two have a hold rating. Biotech play Another stock Polcari is bullish on is biopharmaceutical player Amgen , given its pipeline of new products .
Persons: Kenny Polcari, CNBC's, Jerome Powell, Polcari, Amgen, — CNBC's Sean Conlon Organizations: U.S, Biotech, U.S . Food, Drug Administration, Euronext, Nasdaq, Nvidia Locations: Federal, U.S, Amgen, Euronext Amsterdam, Dutch, ASML
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJay Powell was politically pressured into delivering a 'crisis level' rate cut: Kenny PolcariKenny Polcari from SlateStone explains why he thinks the 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed is seen as political "pandering" six weeks before the U.S. presidential election.
Persons: Jay Powell, Kenny Polcari Kenny Polcari, SlateStone Organizations: U.S
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Microsoft's shares (MSFT.O) advanced 1.4%, notching a record high after CEO Satya Nadella said Altman is set to join the company to lead a new advanced AI research team. The Fed is expected to issue minutes of its November meeting on Tuesday, which will be parsed for clues on the direction of U.S. interest rates. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.03-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.39-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded eight new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 32 new highs and 24 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Bristol Myers, Sam Altman, Satya Nadella, Altman, Ken Polcari, Nvidia, Germany's Bayer, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Bristol, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Kace Capital Advisors, Traders, Dow Jones, Bristol Myers Squibb, Sunday, United Rentals, Ashtead, Boeing, Deutsche Bank, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Fellow Governor Michelle Bowman said she took the recent Gross Domestic Product number as evidence the economy not only "remained strong," but might have gained speed and requires a higher Fed policy rate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 56.94 points, or 0.17%, to 34,152.8; the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 12.40 points, or 0.28 %, at 4,378.38 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 121.08 points, or 0.90 %, at 13,639.86. The S&P 500 (.SPX) scored its seventh straight day in the green, with the Nasdaq (.IXIC) recording its eighth straight advance, the longest such streak for each index in two years. The Dow gained for a seventh straight session, its longest since a 13-session run in July. The S&P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and three new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 48 new highs and 145 new lows.
Persons: CME's, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Powell, Ken Polcari, Brendan McDermid, Dow, Lorie Logan, Chuck Mikolajczak, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, Kace Capital Advisors, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Apple, Dow Jones, . Energy, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Uber Technologies, NYSE, Thomson Locations: U.S, Boca Raton , Florida, New York City
Both Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also refused to rule out rate cuts. The pullback in yields helped lift megacap growth names such as Microsoft (MSFT.O), up 1.5%, and Apple (AAPL.O), up 1.7%, as the biggest boosts to both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Also due to speak on Tuesday was New York Fed President John Williams. The S&P 500 (.SPX) is on pace for its seventh straight day in the green, with the Nasdaq (.IXIC) on track to rise for the eighth day in a row, the longest such streak for each index in two years. The S&P 500 posted 13 new 52-week highs and three new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 43 new highs and 132 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Powell, Ken Polcari, John Williams, Dow, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, Kace Capital Advisors, Microsoft, Apple, Dow Jones, Energy, New York Fed, Uber Technologies, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boca Raton , Florida, Bengaluru
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMoney will flow out of US mega-cap tech stocks and into broad market, says strategistKenny Polcari of SlateStone Wealth expects a pullback of U.S. big tech stocks and shares what he will do with his money.
Persons: Kenny Polcari Organizations: SlateStone
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Very likely' that inflation will pick up again in the United States, strategist saysKenny Polcari of Slatestone Wealth says inflation could "[rear] its ugly head" and prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to again be aggressive in its monetary policy.
Persons: Kenny Polcari Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: United States
The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.4% in April, short of the estimate for an increase of 0.8%. That slowing along with recent negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling has focused attention on when the central bank will pause hiking, or cut interest rates. While the market is currently pricing in a rate cut by the end of the year, recent comments from Fed officials suggested they are not ready to cut rates soon. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she does not think the central bank can hold interest rates steady yet. (This story has been corrected to say 'a rate cut,' instead of 'a rate hike,' in paragraph 8)Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Home Depot (HD.N) shed 1.73%, the biggest drag on the Dow Industrials and among the heaviest weights on the S&P 500 after the home improvement retailer cut its annual sales forecast and projected a steeper-than-expected decline in profit. The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.4% in April, short of the estimate for an increase of 0.8%. That slowing along with recent negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling has focused attention on when the central bank will pause hiking, or cut interest rates. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she does not think the central bank can hold interest rates steady yet. The S&P 500 posted 10 new 52-week highs and 12 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 42 new highs and 163 new lows.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. I think the Fed will raise rates again in June and then pause. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing."
US April CPI rise gives Fed little room for pivot soon
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing." The other thing is shelter, a huge component of CPI and it came in a little bit weaker."
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoWASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) - Several Federal Reserve policymakers last month considered pausing interest rate increases after the failure of two regional banks and a forecast from Fed staff that banking sector stress would tip the economy into recession. But even they concluded high inflation remained so paramount they pressed on with a rate hike despite the risk. Fed staff assessing the potential fallout of banking sector stress projected a "mild recession" starting later this year, with a recovery in 2024-2025, the minutes showed. "Some participants noted ...they would have considered a 50-basis-point increase ... in the absence of the recent developments in the banking sector," the minutes said. "Participants observed that inflation remained much too high and that the labor market remained too tight; as a result they anticipated that some additional policy firming may be appropriate," the minutes said.
And I don’t think they are going to be any rate cuts (this year), I don’t care what fed funds futures say. It’s going to have bad, like really bad, for them to cut. I’m not swayed by the latest FOMC minutes at all.”SAM BURNS, CHIEF STRATEGIST, MILL STREET RESEARCH, SHERBORN, MASSACHUSETTS"The minutes sound a little bit more on the dovish side. "The headline inflation rate is below the core rate which it hasn't been for a long time. It's probably going to be range-bound trading for a little longer until we get some major news."
It's not just regional bank shares that have been hit by the recent banking crisis — large-cap bank stocks have also tumbled. JPMorgan was down nearly 6% last week, while Bank of America tumbled 8% over the same period. It said big banks are a "big beneficiary" and fundamentals at JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citi look "rather strong." For those looking to invest, CNBC Pro takes a look at what analysts are saying about JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America in particular. However, Bank of America has only 8% of uninsured deposits as a proportion of its total deposit liabilities.
Markets calmed somewhat Tuesday, and Kenny Polcari, chief market strategist at SlateStone Wealth, believes the worst of the equity sell-off is over. "There's a lot of damage done to some of these stocks and they're going to need to rebalance. You need health care, you need consumer staples, you need energy. So yes, I think there are opportunities certainly in the health care space that are good dividend payers as well," he said. While the stock is not a "big sexy tech name," it is a "solid, great drug name," according to Polcari.
Each of the three main indexes climbed more than 1% shortly after the opening bell, in part due to an easing in Treasury yields. The yield on two-year Treasury notes , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, slipped after touching a near four-month high. Seagen Inc (SGEN.O) surged 9.73% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Pfizer (PFE.N) was in early talks to acquire the biotech firm. Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.30-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted four new 52-week highs and five new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 58 new highs and 82 new lows.
The semiconductor sector has seen quite a turnaround of late. Chip stocks were among the worst performers last year, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) shedding more than 35% of its value. Despite this, chip stocks have flown somewhat under the radar since the beginning of the year as the buzz around artificial intelligence and a recovery in Big Tech dominated investor attention. While the semiconductor sector is notorious for its cyclicality and boom-bust cycles, several Wall Street pros are urging investors to take a longer-term view. Europe stock ideas In Europe, a raft of chip stocks made Bank of America 's list of "2023 European Best Stock Ideas."
Veteran market strategist Kenny Polcari sees stocks falling toward their December lows. Here are 10 stocks to buy now for strong dividends or exposure to trends like AI. The 40-year market veteran said the drop will come as the US economy loses steam and heads for a longer-than-expected recession. The market veteran added: "You have to prepare for what you think might be the worst and then be pleasantly surprised. Risk-averse investors should focus on stocks that pay dividends and are in recession-resistant sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples, Polcari said.
Here are three cities where properties are overvalued and could drop by 20%. "I think it's going to continue to be a rolling recession, of which housing has already started." Many pundits expect that to change, and some are predicting that US home prices will plunge 20% in 2023. How much home values fall depends both on how long and painful the upcoming recession is and what market they're in, Polcari said. "In some parts of the country that got really overexaggerated, you could see those prices come in 20%," Polcari said.
The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), which tracks the performance of U.S.-listed aerospace and defense stocks, rose 8.8% in 2022 and is up more than 2% this year. He said defense stocks are "one way to protect the other parts of the portfolio that are under pressure." "I'm bullish on aerospace and defense stocks, and I think those are names that should be in a longer-term portfolio. The investment bank described Moog as a "transition story" that will benefit from an "extended defense spending lift." Other South Korean stocks with exposure to the defense sector include Hyundai Heavy Industries and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering.
Last week was a big one for tech earnings, but it ended on a whimper as a series of disappointments left market watchers questioning the strength of the tech rally. But market veteran Kenny Polcari, chief market strategist at SlateStone Wealth, is still bullish on Big Tech. "We added Big Tech on weakness, like Apple and Amazon, these stocks are getting arbitrarily dislocated. So, I do think there's [an] opportunity for sure, but I don't think you can go all in on Big Tech just yet," he said. STPN – 'Stuff that people need' But tech isn't Polcari's only way to play the market.
Much buzz has been generated around ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence chatbot that's gone viral and reportedly reached 100 million monthly active users in January. Its popularity has sparked much interest in artificial intelligence tech . "You really have to consider the role that artificial intelligence is going to play … it's made this quantum leap almost, you know, overnight. For investors considering investing in AI, CNBC Pro has screened two ETFs for stocks: the $1.59 billion Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF and the First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence & Robotics ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq CTA Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Index. Voice AI platform SoundHound also got a 100% buy rating, and analysts put its potential average upside at 31%.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday the U.S. central bank needed to keep raising interest rates given that its tightening so far "had only limited effects on observed inflation". The comments, coming on the heels of strong retail sales data, dampened hopes of the Fed toning down its hawkish approach following softer-than-expected inflation reports. They are getting more comfortable with a generally higher interest rate regime," said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. ET, Dow e-minis were up 224 points, or 0.67%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 35.5 points, or 0.9%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 118.25 points, or 1.01%. Applied Materials Inc (AMAT.O) gained 4.0% after the chip tools maker forecast first-quarter revenue above estimates, on hopes of easing supply chain constraints.
"Initially when that (Bullard commentary) came out, you saw the market sell off and then there was some discussion about was he being over-reactive?" Equities had seen strong gains last week after a softer-than-expected inflation report boosted hopes of smaller rate hikes from the Fed. Most of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors advanced, with defensive utilities (.SPLRCU) and real estate (.SPLRCR) leading gains, up about 1% each. The S&P index recorded six new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 34 new highs and 60 new lows. Reporting by Shubham Batra, Ankika Biswas and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta and Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
FOREX: The dollar index turned 0.44% higherCOMMENTS:KEN POLCARI, MANAGING PARTNER, KACE CAPITAL ADVISORS, BOCA RATON, FLORIDA“Not good, hello – market collapsing. With a 3.5% unemployment rate, there's no way the Fed is going to stop raising rates until after the end of the year." The Fed has got to get a handle on inflation right now. RYAN DETRICK, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CARSON GROUP, OMAHA“This is a yet another disappointing sign that inflation continues to stay stubbornly high. There are still two more CPI prints before the December meeting with the Fed, but for now, the pivot is on pause.
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