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☆ CNBC Daily Open: Nvidia unseats Microsoft as world's most valuable company
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-19 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The shift presents challenges for tech-focused ETFs and could affect their holdings of heavyweights like Nvidia , Microsoft , and Apple . Markets are pricing in at least two rate cuts this year, while Fed officials have indicated only one rate cut is likely. Nvidia takes the crown Nvidia on Tuesday surpassed Microsoft to become the world's most valuable public company with a market cap of $3.34 trillion. Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler signaled the likelihood of a rate cut later this year.

Persons: Dave Calhoun, Josh Hawley, Calhoun, Hawley, Paul Ashworth, Susan Collins, Collins, Adriana Kugler, " Kugler, Jeff Cox, Cox, Claudia Sahm, —, Kif Leswing, Bob Pisani, Leslie Josephs, Alex Harring, Samantha Subin, Spencer Kimball, Yun Li, Lim Hui Jie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Federal Reserve, Fed, Boeing, Federal, North, Capital Economics, Boston Federal, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: New York City, U.S, North America, Boston, Lawrence , Massachusetts, Washington

☆ Trump's plan to tax the entire world will result in the type of global trade war not seen since the Great Depression, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-02 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewDonald Trump says his trade policy would be a way to protect the US from exploitation. Yet, by applying a base tariff on virtually all foreign goods, he's starting a "war against trade itself," Alan Wm. Related stories"Economists agree that high tariffs broadened and deepened the Great Depression, when US unemployment reached 25 percent and we nearly lost our democracy," the distinguished visiting fellow wrote. That's why I think we're going to be entering into a trade war next year." For instance, the new 50% tariffs on Chinese semiconductors may seem extreme, but they target a trade that's just below $1 billion a year, he said.

Persons: —, Donald Trump, Alan Wm, Wolff, Trump, Trump's, Kenneth Rogoff, Leland Miller, Biden, Waller, they're Organizations: Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Republican, Business, Trump, Peterson Institute, Biden Locations: Britain, China, Beijing, America

☆ Fed officials aren’t easing Wall Street’s nerves
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Optimism spurred by the latest inflation data pushed all three major stock indexes to new record highs. But now Wall Street, eager for rate cuts, is on edge again. But some financial leaders remain doubtful that the Fed is feeling confident enough to cut rates soon. “I think we’re set up for stickier inflation.”Some Fed officials say another rate hike isn’t likelyFed officials have mostly sounded a little more optimistic about inflation recently, after the Consumer Price Index for April finally provided some welcome news. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told Bloomberg on Monday that she also thinks interest rates are high enough to deal with inflation.

Persons: they’re, Dow, Christopher Waller, ” Waller, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, “ I’m, ”, “, Philip Jefferson, Mary Daly, Axios, Jerome Powell, Klaas Knot, Loretta Mester, Chris Larkin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, CNBC, ”, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Boston College, Mortgage, Association, ” San Francisco Fed, European Central Bank Governing, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, “ Locations: ” San

☆ Fed officials seem like they have ‘no idea’ what is going on with U.S. inflation, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"I think the message that's coming through is that they have no idea what's going on," Howard said on CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Wednesday. Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday said that he needed to see further data evidence that inflation was softening before supporting rate cuts. Waller's comments were echoed by other Fed officials on Tuesday, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins. 'A credibility problem'But Fed officials have not come out with a clear message about their expectations or to address why inflation remains elevated, GAM's Howard said. "And now [policymakers] think inflation is coming down but its not coming down fast enough," he said.

Persons: Valerie Plesch, Julian Howard, Howard, Christopher Waller, Waller's, Susan Collins, GAM's Howard, They've Organizations: Eccles Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal, GAM, Fed, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Boston Fed, Atlanta Federal Reserve Locations: Washington , DC, U.S, Washington

☆ Trump's proposed tariffs would cost Americans $500 billion a year, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Trump's proposed tariffs could cost Americans $500 billion annually, a think tank estimated. The cost of tariffs is often passed onto consumers as producers raise prices. A 10% tariff on imports could cost households an extra $1,500 a year, researchers say. Researchers at the Peterson Institute warned Trump's planned taxes on imports could end up being a huge burden on working-class Americans. That's about five times the cost of Trump's tariffs in 2018, when he imposed taxes on imports of steel, aluminum, and other goods.

Persons: Trump's, —, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Washington DC, Peterson Institute, Business

☆ Trump’s new trade war would cost middle-class families at least $1,700 a year, report warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —Former President Donald Trump’s trade agenda amounts to a tripling-down of the trade war he waged during his first term in office. That’s nearly five times the total cost as a share of GDP from the 2018-2019 US-China trade war. Trump’s tariff proposals would cost the typical middle-income household at least $1,700 a year, the researchers found. Those aren’t comparable numbers,” Clausing said, referring to the amount of imports targeted by Biden and by Trump tariffs. Likewise, the US International Trade Commission found in a 2023 study that US importers “bore nearly the full cost” of tariffs.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, That’s, Kimberly Clausing, Mary Lovely, Clausing, aren’t, ”, Joe Biden, “, Biden, ” Biden hasn’t, Janet Yellen, ” Yellen, ” Clausing, Karoline Leavitt, ’, Bidenomics, ” Leavitt, Leavitt, Moody’s, Mark Zandi, ” Goldman Sachs, ” ‘, ” Chris Krueger Organizations: New, New York CNN, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, UCLA School of Law, CNN, ” Biden, Biden, Treasury Department, US International Trade Commission, “, Cowen’s Washington Research Group Locations: New York, China, Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, United States, U.S, Washington

☆ Fed Governor Waller wants 'several months' of good inflation data before lowering rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Christopher Waller, governor of the US Federal Reserve, during a Fed Listens event in Washington, D.C., on Friday, Sept. 23, 2022. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, citing a string of data showing that inflation appears to be easing, said Tuesday that he does not think further interest rate increases will be necessary. Yet Waller said he's not ready to back interest rate cuts. Markets have had to recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy this year. In the early months, futures markets traders priced in at least six rate cuts this year starting in March.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, he's Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Federal, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Market, Labor Department Locations: Washington ,, Washington

☆ Biden’s trade chief walks back comments contradicting Biden on tariffs and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Matt Egan | Kayla Tausche | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Research shows that former President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China did indeed raise prices on consumers and businesses — despite his claims otherwise. The study found tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump did not meaningfully contribute to inflation. “The new Biden tariffs, like the more extensive ones that Trump has promised, will worsen US inflation. It is fair to debate how much the Biden tariffs will impact inflation because they are not nearly as widespread as what Trump imposed and what Trump is promising if he’s reelected. Trump enacted sweeping tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese imports, setting off a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.

Persons: Katherine Tai, Joe Biden’s, ” Tai, —, Donald Trump’s, Tai, Angela Perez, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Tai’s, “ Trump, ” Biden, “, Alex Durante, Tai’s “, Maury Obstfeld, Biden, ”, Trump, he’s, ” Perez, White, Morgan, Daleep Singh, Jen Psaki, Jared Polis, ” Polis, Ed Mills, Raymond James, David Kelly, ” Kelly Organizations: New, New York CNN, US, White, Research, CNN, US International Trade Commission, “, China, Tax, Obama, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Biden, Atlantic Council, Bretton, Committee, ”, Colorado Gov, Republicans, Asset Management Locations: New York, China, Ukraine, EVs, Europe

☆ What Biden’s tariffs on Chinese imports may mean for American jobs, the economy and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Biden’s tariff plan likely won’t move the needle for monetary policy, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. “Consumers and producers often pay higher prices when tariffs are implemented.”That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately, consumers. Worse, some businesses appeared to take advantage of the trade war by bumping up prices even higher. Container shipping imports from China to Mexico rocketed higher by 60% in January and 34% for the first quarter, Xeneta data shows. “It’s obvious that imports to this extent are not only for domestic purposes in Mexico,” he said.

Persons: Biden, Joe Brusuelas, Donald Trump’s, Trump, —, Ryan Sweet, ” Sweet, Sweet, George W, Bush, Barack Obama, Goldman Sachs, ”, Wells, Nicole Cervi, “ There’s, ” Cervi, Peter Sand, “, Sand, “ It’s Organizations: CNN, RSM US, stoke, Oxford Economics, Biden, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Federal, “, US International Trade Commission, New, New York Fed, National Bureau of Economic Research, Republican, ramped, Container Locations: China, New York, “, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Wells, Mexico

☆ Russia's economic survival hinges on prolonging the Ukraine war, think tank expert says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia needs to keep its war with Ukraine going or risk an economic hard landing, Elina Ribakova wrote for the Financial Times. The country's military industry has been a major driver of structural economic strength during the war. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . But while this may look good on paper, the country is actually at risk of a hard landing if war efforts cease, Elina Ribakova said. For decades," Ribakova wrote.

Persons: Elina Ribakova, Ribakova, —, Vladimir Putin, That's Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Financial, International Monetary Fund, Peterson Institute for International Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Russian, Moscow

☆ U.S.-China relations are 'dangerous' but better managed, says Longview Global's Dewardric McNeal
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S.-China relations are 'dangerous' but better managed, says Longview Global's Dewardric McNealDewardric McNeal, managing director and senior policy analyst at Longview Global, Nicholas Lardy, senior fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss Secretary Blinken's visit to China, industrial policy, and more.

Persons: Dewardric McNeal Dewardric McNeal, Nicholas Lardy, Blinken's Organizations: U.S, Longview Global, Peterson Institute for International Economics, CNBC's Locations: China, Longview

☆ Nicholas Lardy: I am skeptic on the idea that consumer confidence in China is very weak
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNicholas Lardy: I am skeptic on the idea that consumer confidence in China is very weakNicholas Lardy from Peterson Institute for International Economics on why he is constructive on Chinese economy.

Persons: Nicholas Lardy Organizations: Peterson Institute for International Locations: China

☆ How Trump’s tariff plans could kill jobs and worsen inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Trump has floated a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports, a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 100% tariff on foreign cars – including from Mexico. Trump’s proposals, if enacted, could easily set off a new trade war with China and potentially other nations, too. Some economists are warning Trump’s trade agenda and the ensuing retaliation from trading partners would hurt the US economy by worsening inflation, killing jobs, depressing growth and spooking investors. It’s hard to say exactly because there is a lot of uncertainty over how much of Trump’s proposed agenda would actually be enacted. That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately consumers.

Persons: he’s, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Alex Durante, Trump’s, ”, Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, ” Goldman, Janet Yellen, Joe Biden’s, Karoline Leavitt, ” “, ” Leavitt, “, Biden, “ Donald Trump, ” Biden, James Singer, Biden’s, That’s, Durante, Joe Brusuelas, don’t, ” Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Liz, Maury Obstfeld, Obstfeld, Obama, ” Durante Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Tax Foundation, CNN, Trump, China, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, RSM, Target, Walmart, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, US International Trade Commission, “, Obama Locations: New York, China, Mexico, Beijing, United States

☆ Yellen kicks off China meetings with overcapacity concerns, encouraging market-oriented reforms
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns (R) receive U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (R) upon her arrival in Guangzhou on April 4, 2024. Pedro Pardo | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen kicked off her first full day of official meetings in China with discussion about overcapacity concerns and encouragement to pursue market-oriented reforms. It is her second trip to China as Treasury secretary. China's growth potentialGuangdong is one of the largest contributors to China's economic growth and home to the city of Shenzhen, a major hub for tech companies and startups. "In recent decades, [Guangzhou] was at the forefront of market-oriented reforms that advanced China's economic development and openness," Yellen said in prepared remarks for her meeting with Wang.

Persons: Liao Min, China Nicholas Burns, Janet Yellen, Pedro Pardo, Yellen, Wang Weizhong, Wang, I've, Nicholas R, Lardy Organizations: Finance, U.S, Treasury, Afp, Getty, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Foreign Affairs Locations: China, Guangzhou, BEIJING, U.S, Beijing, Guangdong province, United States, Guangdong, Shenzhen, Asia

☆ Don't write off China: Why one economist says the nation is likely to grow at double the rate of the US in coming years
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China will grow at double the US rate in coming years, Nicholas R. Lardy wrote for Foreign Affairs. China's nominal GDP will surpass the US's in a decade as the yuan appreciates, Lardy said. In that case, China's GDP outpaced the US, with each country expanding 5.2% and 2.5%, respectively. That depressed China's yuan, eroding the value of its GDP when measured in dollars. "When real estate is excluded, private investment rose by almost ten percent in 2023. "

Persons: Nicholas R, Lardy, —, it's Organizations: Foreign Affairs, Service, Peterson Institute Locations: China, United States, Washington

☆ Japan Is a Preview of China's Ugly Recession, Stock Market Crash
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-31 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +14 min

But Japan's economy — the long-unconscious patient — recently started to wiggle its toe. The country's stock market is ripping; the Nikkei recently exceeded the all-time highs it set 34 years ago. Now, Koo says, Chinese academics and policymakers are flocking to Japan to glean some kind of wisdom from the country's experience. Advertisement"This has made Japan attractive for foreign investors, and the stock market has done well," Koo said. Even without a currency war with Beijing, the world is building defenses against another wave of Chinese goods.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, there's, Nomura, Richard Koo, Koo, Shinzo Abe, Japan's, What's, it's, we're, haven't, Xi Jinping, doesn't, Xi, we've, Brasília Organizations: Nikkei, Goldman, Bank of Japan, Corporations, International Monetary Fund, Japan, Peterson Institute, European Union, China Locations: East Asia, China, Japan, Real, Tokyo, Beijing, Brussels, Brasília, American, Washington, Brazil, Turkey

☆ What a Trump 2.0 Economy Would Look Like
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Tim Smart | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +10 min

Overall, the Biden economic plan draws less than favorable reviews from voters. So, too, are promises of more tax cuts and a sharp curtailment of immigration. Trump was upset in 2019 that Powell was not doing enough to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy. The Trump tax cuts are set to expire in 2025, giving a second Trump administration the opportunity to fight that battle again. “A Trump 2.0 presidency would inherit very large fiscal deficits from the Biden Administration, rising interest expenses and an economy probably more prone to bouts of inflation,” the report said.

Persons: Muhammad Ali, Joe Frazier, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Trump, There’s, ” Trump, it’s, ”, Patrick Horan, “, Tony Soprano, Patrick Kilbane, ” Kilbane, “ Trump, ” George Calhoun, Calhoun, ” Matt Gertken, Alex Nowrasteh, ” Michael Clemens, Clemens, Jerome Powell, Powell, Xi Jinping, Maria Bartiromo, reappoint Powell, Steve Mnuchin, ” Maxime Darmet, Darmet, Kevin McCarthy Organizations: Manila ”, Trump, CNBC, Monday, White, George Mason University, Ullmann Wealth Partners, Republican Party, Senate, Affordable, Quantitative, Stevens Institute of Technology, TikTok, Democratic, BCA Research, Labor, CATO Institute, Peterson Institute for International, University of Colorado, Federal Reserve, Federal, Biden, Fox Business, Trump Cabinet, House, Allianz Research, Biden Administration, U.S, Allianz Trade, Congress, GOP Locations: Manila, COVID, China, U.S, America, France

☆ Russia's resilience to sanctions shows it is 'costly and unattainable' to isolate a large and globally integrated economy, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"The primary lesson is that seeking complete isolation of a large, complex and globally-integrated economy is costly and unattainable," Elina Ribakova wrote in the Financial Times on Tuesday. Russia's economy has managed to keep humming because Russian President Vladimir Putin has been preparing for sanctions since 2014. Failures in Russia, lessons for the futureEven so, the West can glean valuable lessons from its experience sanctioning an economy as large as Russia, said Ribakova. Advertisement"In the case of China, the US would need to look for vulnerabilities while remaining realistic about the limitations of sanctions," wrote Ribakova in FT.She added there must be steeper penalties for those who evade sanctions. "The experience with Russia is an invaluable opportunity to sharpen sanctions as a foreign policy tool," she wrote Ribakova.

Persons: —, Elina Ribakova, Vladimir Putin, Ribakova Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Business, Monetary Fund, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Affairs Program, Kyiv School of Economics, Russia Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Moscow, Beijing, China, Taiwan

☆ China, Xi Jinping Plan to Crush Elon Musk, Tesla, and the US EV Industry
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-25 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +13 min

If China EV Inc. were allowed to enter the US today or next year, the legacies would be gutted." The year Musk tittered at the idea of Chinese EVs overtaking Tesla, the country produced only 5,000 electric cars. It has more trade barrier protection from a China Auto Inc. onslaught, but it may not work forever. AdvertisementWe want to maintain an auto industry in the US — that's essential for jobs, national security, and for other sectors of the economy. Sure, Chinese EV makers are lean and mean, but they've never had to deal with international markets before.

Persons: Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, Le, haven't, carmakers, Jim Farley, Tesla, Xi, Andy Wong, Xi Jinping, Li Auto, BYD, Trump, Mary Lovely, Joe Biden's, Biden, it's, Lovely, they've Organizations: Tesla, Bloomberg TV, America's, GM, Ford, Sino, EV, China EV Inc, ascendance, Chery, US, Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Companies, SAIC, Energy Department, China Auto Inc, Peterson Institute, United Auto Workers, White, Auto Locations: Chinese, China, Beijing, Japan, Europe, North America, Brussels, Washington, Hungary, Mexico, Canada, America

☆ Your next Tesla could be made by China
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Aaron Mok | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Elon Musk invited the suppliers to Mexico as part of plans for cheaper Teslas, Bloomberg reported. That move could be stoking concerns among US officials and EV makers over China's influence. China has a "highly organized, highly efficient supply chain," Venkatesh Prasad, chief innovation officer at the Center for Automotive Research, told Bloomberg. AdvertisementTesla, which also makes cars in the US, and other US-based EV makers may also be feeling the heat from competitors. Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Bloomberg.

Persons: Elon Musk, —, Tesla's, Venkatesh Prasad, Tesla, stoke, Katherine Tai, Tai, Biden, EVs, China's, Tesla's Musk, Mary Lovely Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Center for Automotive Research, Business, Trump, Chinese Communist Party, US Trade Rep, Nikkei, EV, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: Mexico, Monterrey, Shanghai, Mexican, Nuevo Leon, Austin, China, Beijing, Washington, DC, United States

☆ The Federal Reserve is fed up with data revisions
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said large revisions in data are tainting his assessments of how the economy is doing. Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesThat’s well above the average month-over-month revised change in job totals from 1973 to the latest available revision data, according to the BLS. The official summary of what Fed officials said and discussed during their September meeting — also known as the Fed minutes — stated: “A few participants observed that there were challenges in assessing the state of the economy because some data continued to be volatile and subject to large revisions.”Spokespeople from the Federal Reserve declined to answer which data Fed officials were referring to. Frequent and large revisions to economic data are weighing on Federal Reserve decision-making, Governor Michelle Bowman said. “We want to be data dependent, but not data point dependent,” Williams said.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, it’s, Al Drago, ” Waller, ”, Michelle Bowman, —, Spokespeople, he’s, don’t, Erica Groshen, David Wilcox, Laura Kelter, Kelter, Groshen, Wilcox, John Williams, ” Williams, “ Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal Reserve, ”, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Fed, Ohio Bankers League, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Department, Census, Labor, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Employment, CNN, Wilcox . New York Fed Locations: New York, Wilcox . New

☆ How America’s economy keeps defying expectations when the rest of the world is struggling
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Economists were convinced the last quarter of 2023 had to be the one where economic growth slowed significantly after the prior quarter’s gangbuster 4.9% annualized growth rate. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, did slow last quarter to a 3.3% annualized rate. It’s remarkable given economists were expecting 1.5% annualized GDP growth last quarter. But what’s perhaps most remarkable about the US economic growth rate is how much it towers over similarly sized advanced economies. Covid stimulus money is helping Americans avoid cutting back on spending.

Persons: Larry David, that’s, rateaccording, Joseph Gagnon, David Paul Morris, Gagnon, That’s, Alicia Wallace, Hanna Ziady, he’s, I’ve, it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Gross, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Singapore, Europe, Ukraine

An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes, at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China October 25, 2022. But the extent of the political and economic jitters merely mirrors other signs of a long-term China exit well beyond portfolio flows. Earlier this month, China recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in "bricks and mortar" foreign direct investment (FDI). What's more, a multi-year aversion to China investments then risks colliding with deteriorating long-term economic growth dynamics - heightened by rising youth unemployment and dire demographics. Despite some recent upgrades of China growth forecasts, yet another business survey this week raised red flags.

Persons: Aly, Gina Raimondo, Nicholas Lardy, Xi, Lardy, What's, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, Mike Dolan, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Official Monetary, Financial, Reuters, . Commerce, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, OMFIF, Europe, North America, India, Brazil, Beijing, U.S, Washington, San Francisco

Now "it's like 'plus-10' and then China," he added, with the latter down to providing half of Industry West's products and being trimmed more. China recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in foreign direct investment in July-September, suggesting capital outflow pressure. But for the first time in the four decades since China opened up to foreign investments, executives are now also concerned about long-term growth prospects. Primavera Capital founder Fred Hu cites mounting macroeconomic uncertainty, a "murky capital market outlook," and lingering concerns over past regulatory crackdowns on high-growth industries such as technology and education. Despite the challenges, foreign investment flows are not unidirectional.

Persons: Jordan England, Nicholas Lardy, England, I'm, Li Qiang's, Li, Michael Hart, Noah Fraser, Fred Hu, Hu, Joe Cash, Ellen Zhang, Kane Wu, Eduardo Baptista, Don Durfee, Kripa Jayaram, Marius Zaharia, Jamie Freed Organizations: China, Reuters, Peterson Institute for International Economics, LONG, Conference Board, China International, Canada China Business Council, Reuters Graphics, Primavera Capital, Tech, Thomson Locations: China, BEIJING, HONG KONG, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Mexico, England, Florida, Washington, Beijing, consultancies, U.S, Asia, Australia, Europe, Hong Kong

☆ Multipolar world opens up surprising safe havens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

This new-look cap table leaves the U.S. much more vulnerable to the vagaries of foreign investors than before. In a crisis, foreign investors would rush to buy even more U.S. debt. Reuters GraphicsA less orthodox option would be to invest in emerging markets instead. The last time net equity investment in the U.S. NIIP dipped close to negative territory was as the dot-com bubble was deflating in 2001. In the next six years the U.S. saw net equity outflows equivalent to nearly 30% of GDP.

Persons: Hubert Védrine, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, ’, Donald Trump’s, exceptionalism, NIIP, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, French, U.S, United, United States, Treasury, Equity, U.S . Treasury, Japan, Democratic, Cooperation Council, Peterson Institute for International, Fed, ECB ”, Thomson Locations: United States, tatters, United, U.S, China, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Vietnam, India, Chile, Democratic Republic of, Congo, Washington

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