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Tom Orlik - 2 — - 2 there's - 1 Tim Walz - 1 JD Vance - 1 Kamala Harris - 1 Donald Trump - 1 shouldn't - 1
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☆ Beware of 'seismic shocks' to the US economy and inflation if this specific election outcome occurs, according to a top mind at Bloomberg Economics
  + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . You can opt-out at any time by visiting our Preferences page or by clicking "unsubscribe" at the bottom of the email. AdvertisementOne election result may cause 'seismic shocks'Partisans are convinced that this election is the most important ever, as they always are. The market isn't convinced, judging by where the VIX is trading just a month away from election day. "Let's think about a world where Trump gets into power and poses a 60% tariff on China," Orlik said.
Persons: there's, Tom Orlik, —, Tim Walz, JD Vance, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, shouldn't, who'd, Nancy Davis, Davis, Tanvir Sandhu, Sandhu, Chris Murphy, Murphy, Harris, Trump, Joe Biden, Orlik, Trump's, Murphy isn't, I'm Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, White, Trump, Bloomberg Economics, Bloomberg Intelligence, Traders, Biden, Nvidia, Qualcomm Locations: Susquehanna, China
☆ The US economy is extremely fragile right now and could tip into a recession within months, according to a new model
  + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
A new Bloomberg model shows a better-than-50% chance a recession could begin this year. According to Anna Wong and Tom Orlik, two chief economists at Bloomberg Economics, the model works "fairly well" at matching previous calls of recession. AdvertisementAdvertisementAccording to the model, the US could declare a recession in 2024 following a possible economic dip in the last months of 2023. Other factors not out of the woodsAnd then there are the maybes: the United Auto Workers strike and a potential government shutdown. If the model is correct, there is already a good chance a recession may hit.
Persons: —, Anna Wong, Tom Orlik, Mario Tama, Taylor Swift, Jeff Kravitz, Debbie Downer, Paul Sancya, Kevin McCarthy, It'll Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Bloomberg Economics, San Francisco Fed, United Auto Workers, Victoria Hall, Ford Michigan Assembly Plant, GM, Ford, AP Locations: Santa Clara , California, Wayne, Mich
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