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Let’s get one thing straight: The polls can’t tell us who is going to win the presidential election. The race is that close and uncertain, and polls in previous election cycles have been that far off the mark. With those caveats out of the way, let’s not ignore the consistent storylines in the polls that have defined the political forces shaping the election. It's not the -33 net rating he had heading into his first presidential election in 2016, but it's not what successful presidential candidates have typically enjoyed, either. And whether he was running against Biden or against Harris, Trump's biggest issue advantage has long been on the border and controlling immigration.

Persons: Let’s, let’s, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, What’s, Roe, Wade, Trump, they’ve, Joe Biden, —, It's, Trump's, they've, Biden, — Harris ’, Trump’s, Harris ’ Organizations: NBC News, Trump, October’s NBC, NBC, Telemundo, CNBC, Black, Electoral College, Biden, Democratic Locations: October’s

☆ Final NBC News poll: Harris-Trump race is neck and neck, with significant gender gap
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-03 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Mark-Murray-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Mark Murray | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +9 min

Just 2% of voters say they’re unsure about the choice. Trump, meanwhile, leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%) and white voters without college degrees (64%-34%). This net gender gap of 34 points is larger than the 30-point gap in October’s NBC News poll. That’s a significant change from the final 2020 NBC News poll, when Biden was ahead of Trump by more than 20 points among these voters. And when it comes to the battle for Congress, 47% of voters say they prefer Democrats control Congress, while 46% want Republicans in charge.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, —, Joe Biden’s, ”, Jeff Horwitt, Bill McInturff, We’ve, we’ve, McInturff, — Trump, Biden, — Harris, they’ve, Trump’s, That’s Organizations: NBC, Republican, White, Trump, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, Republicans —, Democrats —, Electoral, Black, The NBC, Biden, Republican Party Locations: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, U.S

☆ Democrats catch up to GOP on enthusiasm in final NBC News poll before midterms
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Mark-Murray-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Mark Murray | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

Forty-eight percent of likely voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress as the outcome from Tuesday’s elections, while 47% prefer a Republican-controlled Congress. Among all registered voters, congressional preference is tied at 47%-47% — essentially unchanged from last month, when Democrats held a narrow 1-point edge, 47%-46%. Yet what has changed in the poll is that Democrats have caught up to Republicans in election interest. An identical 73% of Democrats and Republicans express high interest, registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale. In October’s NBC News poll, Republicans held a 9-point advantage in high voter interest, 78% to 69%, after Democrats had previously closed the enthusiasm gap following the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to overturn the Roe v. Wade decision on abortion.

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