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PinnedFederal Reserve officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their meeting on Wednesday, buying themselves more time to assess whether borrowing costs are high enough to weigh down the economy and wrestle inflation under control. Central bankers have already raised interest rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, the highest level in 22 years. At least a few officials might stop expecting another quarter-point rate move this year, predicting instead that interest rates have already reached their peak. If, on the other hand, officials expect to lower rates by less in 2024, it could be a signal that policymakers expect inflation to prove more stubborn. Fed officials will release fresh economic forecasts.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ”, Antúlio Bomfim, Powell’s, “, William English Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Trust Asset Management, United Auto Workers, Yale Locations: America, Panama

He called the U.S. central bank's misreading of the issue "a major failure" that can mar analysis of where the economy stands. Since 2016, policies from the vastly different Trump and Biden administrations have combined in a sort of accidental complementarity to keep both job and economic growth above the Fed's estimate of potential. Median Fed policymaker projections of potential U.S. economic growth have slid from a level around 2.5% a decade ago to 1.8% as of June 2023, when the last projections were issued. Under pressure from colleagues to raise interest rates as the economy accelerated, Greenspan resisted and accommodated the expansion instead of fighting it. But it could help economic growth continue even as prices cool, another prop for the "soft landing" the Fed hopes to engineer and possible evidence of rising potential.

Persons: John Williams, Joe Biden, Adam Posen, Donald Trump, Trump's, Biden, Dana Peterson, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Board's Peterson, Alan Greenspan's, Greenspan, Jackson, John Fernald, Huiyu Li, Michael Feroli, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, San Francisco, Fed, Reuters, BlackRock, Bank of England, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Biden, Conference Board, Jackson, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Trust Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington

The Fed last week raised its policy rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range, the 11th increase in the last 12 meetings. Core inflation is still pretty elevated," Powell said in a press conference after the end of the Fed's two-day policy meeting. We think we're going to need to hold policy at restrictive levels for some time. The Fed's policy rate influences the economy by changing what lenders charge consumers for credit card, auto, and home loans or what businesses pay on bonds or for credit lines. "Given that inflation is still sticky, they're going to end up with rates either too high or as high as they are for too long.

Persons: Antulio Bomfim, Bomfim, what's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lindsay Owens, Thomas Simons, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Trust Asset Management, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, STAR, North Star, Open, Jefferies, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Markets need confirmation that inflation is moving in the right direction, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets need confirmation that inflation is moving in the right direction, strategist saysWouter Sturkenboom, chief investment strategist of Northern Trust Asset Management, says core inflation is the "one last missing puzzle piece that markets are looking for."

Persons: Wouter Sturkenboom Organizations: Northern Trust Asset Management

That means portfolio managers are having to factor a stronger yen into global stock selection in way they have not for years, with some even anticipating mergers and acquisitions as the Japanese market revs up. "The trigger for the revaluation of the Japanese markets is higher rates and then a stronger yen. Japan's insurers and pension funds alone hold $1.84 trillion in foreign assets, Deutsche Bank calculates, greater than the size of South Korea's economy. "Policy normalisation could turn back the clock for Japanese investors," Deutsche Bank strategists said in a note. Carmignac, like many global investors, has maintained an underweight position towards Japanese stocks but, Leroux said, it was looking to raise this to neutral.

☆ These ETF strategies can help investors navigate a murky 2023 for markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Here's how some ETF experts are viewing the year and what types of funds could be winners in 2023. … In 2023, investors should be a lot more selective," said Pedro Palandrani, director of research at Global X ETFs. While those areas would be negatively affected by a recession, infrastructure spending approved earlier in the Biden administration could help create solid demand even if the U.S. consumer weakens. Similarly, iShares highlighted the U.S. Infrastructure ETF (IFRA) and the MSCI Global Agriculture ETF (VEGI) in its 2023 outlook as potential winners, in part due to their inflation-hedging properties . In iShares' 2023 outlook, the firm identified its MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE) and Core S & P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) as two funds that could benefit from a low-growth environment.

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