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Typically, price increases are a slow-moving process, so it is rare to see core inflation accelerate this much this quickly. The Survey of Professional Forecasters has found longer-run expectations for inflation have leveled out at 2% — the Fed's target. These one-offs have had an outsize impact on the overall inflation picture. Ahead of 2024, the contribution from acyclical components to core inflation was essentially zero. The strong growth in private demand suggests that second-quarter GDP could be even more robust.
Persons: I've Organizations: America, Federal Reserve, PCE, Atlanta Fed Locations: Real
In today's big story, we're looking at the people preparing for the collapse of the financial system . The big storyPreparing for the worstAdobe; Chelsea Jia Feng/BIOpinions fluctuate on the economy, but one group has a decidedly strong take. In the subreddit r/economiccollapse, users are preparing for a Soviet Union-type fall of the US economy , writes Business Insider's Jennifer Sor. Further down the economic totem pole, ALICEs (asset limited, income constrained, employed) are struggling to make ends meet . 3 things in techAlex Wong/Getty Images, STR / Contributor/Getty Images, Stephane De Sakutin/Contributor/Getty Images, Abanti Chowdhury/BIHow Mark Zuckerberg turned against the news.
Persons: , Chelsea Jia Feng, Jennifer Sor, Jennifer, aren't, Tyler, there's, Neil Dutta, Jim Simons, annualized, Alex Wong, Stephane De Sakutin, Abanti Chowdhury, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Rupert Murdoch, Sam Altman, Alyssa Powell, Rick Doblin, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Service, Business, Chelsea, Macro, Renaissance Technologies, Big Tech, Apple, FDA, FOX Locations: Soviet Union, China, Washington, Beijing, New York, London, Chicago
Steve Albini, a rock musician and revered audio engineer who played a singular role in the development of the sound of alternative rock music in the 1980s, the ’90s and beyond — recording acclaimed albums by Nirvana, PJ Harvey, Pixies and hundreds of others — while becoming an outspoken critic of the music industry, died on Tuesday at his home in Chicago. The cause was a heart attack, according to Taylor Hales of Electrical Audio, the studio in Chicago that Mr. Albini founded in 1997. With a sharp vision for how a band should be recorded, and an even sharper tongue for anything he deemed mediocre or compromised, Mr. Albini was one of rock’s most acerbic wits. In the 1990s, when his work as a recording engineer — he scoffed at being called a “producer” — was in highest demand, however, Mr. Albini made no apology for accepting big checks for recording major-label bands. But those bands did so at their own risk; in those days Mr. Albini was also known for ridiculing the bands he recorded after the fact.
Persons: Steve Albini, Nirvana, PJ Harvey, Taylor Hales, Albini, , ” — Locations: Chicago
For the 27th straight year, some of the brightest minds from across the business world descended on Beverly Hills in early May to attend the Milken Institute Global Conference. But while speculation stole headlines, Milken speakers spent much of their time fixated on the state of the US economy. But despite continued concerns about stagflation, Milken speakers overwhelmingly expressed confidence about economic growth at a May 6 session called "Global Markets at Inflection." "The economy is still extremely strong, consumers are still doing really well, businesses are still doing really well," Scharf said. Though far from perfect, the US is still the best place to investDespite the $34.7 trillion anvil hanging over the economy, Milken speakers widely agreed that the US is still the best place to invest and operate a company.
Persons: Elon Musk, he's, Milken, Wells, Franklin Templeton, Gerard Baker, Andre Esteves, Jenny Johnson, Charlie Scharf, Scharf, we've, it's, you've, hasn't, Sam, Joshua Friedman, Anne Walsh, Friedman, Esteves, they've, Johnson, " Scharf, Wells Fargo Organizations: Milken Institute Global, SpaceX, Business, Milken, The, Consumers, Starbucks, Canyon Partners, Investors, Guggenheim Investments, Milken Institute Global Conference, US Locations: Beverly Hills, Wells Fargo, Brazil, McDonald's, Washington
For many in the middle class, inflation is at the heart of this feeling. That's making people feel locked out of many of the milestones long associated with middle-class life. 74% of middle class Americans have cut back on non-essential spending, according to Primerica's survey. 46% of middle-class Americans said they've dialed back or completely paused saving for the future and 38% said they didn't think they could afford an unexpected expense over $1000. Buying a home may be the greatest example of a tenet of middle-class life feeling out of reach for many, and that struggle is very real rather than merely negatively perceived.
Persons: , Vincent, he'd, he's, Eoin Sheehan, Chris Collins, Collins, Jessica, they're, Kayla, Primerica, they've, Sheehan Organizations: Service, Business, Pew Research Center, Redfield & Wilton, Federal, Northwestern Mutual's Collins, Northwestern Mutual, Newsweek, National Association of Realtors Locations: Santa Barbara, California, Alabama, Primerica
Inflation canceled that, and now it's almost certain that Wall Street's summer is canceled, too. That means Wall Street's fantasies of decamping to the Hamptons for the summer have shattered. You can see why this tug-of-war will keep Wall Street on its toes and off Georgica Beach. There is a certain set on Wall Street that does not get to "rosé all day" on Hamptons summer water when currencies trade that way. The simplicity that Wall Street hoped for is one of the few options that's no longer on the table.
Persons: , Justin Simon, decamping, Jerome Powell, opportunistically, Jamie Dimon, Torsten Slok, Slok, Powell, we'd, David Lefkowitz, dory, McDonald's, Silas Myers, Wall, Zuck, Simon, they're, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Jasper Capital, Nasdaq, Hamptons, JPMorgan, Fed, Pepsi, Mar Vista Investments, Wall, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, EU Locations: Georgica, Japan
CNN —No one dares speak louder than a whisper as nearly 1,000 people respectfully take their seats inside the dimly lit Crucible Theatre. They’ve come to witness the nerve-shredding, silently electric atmosphere of the World Snooker Championship. The World Snooker Tour (WST) – organizers of the World Snooker Championship – say the sport is watched by half-a-billion people around the world. The Crucible Theatre has been the home of the World Snooker Championships since 1977. Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of snooker should not be surprising, but moving the World Snooker Championship would be an emotional decision for many of its fans.
Persons: they’re, They’ve, Shaun Murphy, It’s, , they’ve, George Wood, Mike Watterson, Hossein Vafaei, , it’s, ” Murphy, Young, Murphy, ” Ronnie O'Sullivan, Ronnie O’Sullivan, Ronnie O’Sullivan’s, O’Sullivan, , , Steve Dawson Organizations: CNN, Crucible, CNN Sport, Sheffield, Crucible Theatre, , Wembley, Snooker, Wimbledon, , Theatre Locations: Sheffield, England, Augusta, Saudi Arabia, , Saudi, China
(CNN) — There’s a lot of talk about luxury’s rising prices, but it’s at auction that fashion is selling for the most eye-popping of sums. Fashion items from the sets of TV, film and even commercials can also garner high prices. Frank Augstein/APWhile selling prices are widely publicized, auction houses maintain something akin to attorney-client privilege when it comes to the identities of their bidders. In fact, much of the archival fashion seen on stars today has passed through auction. “That dress would now sell for $10 million because of that double whammy connection of a celebrity,” said Nolan.
Persons: , Celine, Joan Didion, Levi’s, Kurt Cobain, Elton, Burberry, , Nicole Kidman, Lucy Bishop, Frank Augstein, Bishop, Audrey Hepburn, Diana —, Victoria, they’re, Lady Gaga, Kim Kardashian, Michael Jackson’s, Laverne Cox, Jordan Strauss, , Shannon Hoey, Hoey, Dior, Elizabeth Debicki, Diana, , Meg Randell, Leigh Anne Clark —, Valentino, Saint Laurent, Chanel, Andre Leon Talley’s Birkin, Christie’s, Anna Wintour, Clark, Talley, would’ve, Andre Leon Talley's, Meghan McCarthy, Renae Plant, Diana’s, It’s, Carrie Bradshaw, Martin Nolan, Carrie Bradshaw's, Craig Blankenhorn, Barbie, Marilyn Monroe, John F, Kennedy, Nolan, Read Organizations: The, Fashion, CNN, AMC, Albert Museum, York’s Metropolitan Museum of Art, Vogue, USA, Plant, City, Julien’s, HBO Locations: London, Dallas, Palm Beach , Florida, California, Paris, Australia
E-Commerce and the Influencer Economy
  + stars: | 2024-04-21 | by ( Annemarie Conte | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Wirecutter, The Times’s product recommendation service, tests many of the wares that clog Americans’ social media feeds. In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain how e-commerce, a $6 trillion global industry, became choked with junk. Paid to sellOnline shopping can expose people to a greasy influencer economy. When an influencer’s follower clicks a link and buys something, the influencer makes money. That’s why people on your social media feed are crowing about their 10 favorite Amazon finds or talking about how an expensive gizmo has changed their life.
Organizations: Brands
Most members of the band subscribed to a live-fast-die-young lifestyle. Now, decades after Dr. Longo dropped his grunge-era band, DOT, for a career in biochemistry, the Italian professor stands with his floppy rocker hair and lab coat at the nexus of Italy’s eating and aging obsessions. “For studying aging, Italy is just incredible,” said Dr. Longo, a youthful 56, at the lab he runs at a cancer institute in Milan, where he will speak at an aging conference later this month. Italy has one of the world’s oldest populations, including multiple pockets of centenarians who tantalize researchers searching for the fountain of youth. “It’s nirvana.”Dr. Longo, who is also a professor of gerontology and director of the U.S.C.
Persons: Valter Longo, Longo, , Dr Organizations: West Coast, gerontology, Longevity Locations: Italian, Italy, Milan, California
At the simplest level, labor productivity is how much output (widgets, meals, spreadsheet computation) one person can complete in an hour. Employers were running around with fishnets trying to find people, and workers used their leverage. By contrast, the late 1990s were a period of higher productivity growth and underestimated growth, starting the year at 2% but ending closer to 4%. But it's probably too soon to be thinking about these factors as the main driver of recent productivity growth. The investment implications of this are clear: Stronger productivity growth implies a higher speed limit for the economy.
Persons: , it's, we'll Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of San, Labor, P Global, Manufacturing, Capital, Employers, downturns, Professional Locations: Silicon Valley, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGreene: This rally is intact, but you could see a pullback this weekVictoria Greene of G Squared Private Wealth says Nvidia has brought "nirvana", or a state of enlightment to the markets, and those positive feelings could continue on.
Persons: Greene, Victoria Greene Organizations: G, Wealth, Nvidia Locations: enlightment
Big Tech companies are testing AI tools internally in a massive 'dogfooding' experiment. This involves Big Tech companies taking large language models and generative AI tools and putting them to work inside their own organizations. The findings could also change how Big Tech companies operate — and how many expensive engineers they need. Big Tech companies want to sell AI tools to help businesses, developers, advertisers, creators, and other customers reach this new productivity nirvana. If these dogfooding tests go well, Big Tech companies may not need to hire as many workers in the future.
Persons: , It's, Googler Anthony Vallone, Ruth Porat, Hugh Langley, it's, BI's Ashley Stewart, Stewart, there's, Urs Hölzle Organizations: Big Tech, Google, Microsoft, Service, Microsoft Microsoft Locations: Silicon
Jack Dorsey was at the Super Bowl. He wore a t-shirt that says "Satoshi," emblazoned in the style of a Nirvana t-shirt. And we saw Jack Dorsey in a t-shirt that's making waves on X, formerly known as Twitter. That's because Dorsey can be seen sporting a black t-shirt that says "Satoshi" in yellow lettering. AdvertisementJUST IN: Jack Dorsey spotted wearing a Satoshi #Bitcoin shirt at the #SuperBowl 🏈 pic.twitter.com/oDUySC5p7X — Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) February 12, 2024Two things to note here:Satoshi Nakamoto is said to be the inventor of bitcoin.
Persons: Jack Dorsey, Satoshi, , It's, Tim Cook, Taylor Swift, Dorsey —, Beyonce, Jay, Dorsey, miley, ike Organizations: Super, Service, Twitter
Profits Comeback Paired With Rate Cuts Make a Powerful Mix
  + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Justin Lahart | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Soft landing the U.S. economy is like an economic nirvana: inflation is low and the job market is strong. WSJ’s Nick Timiraos explains why and how the Federal Reserve is trying to make one happen. Photo illustration: Ryan TrefesProfits are growing again, and the Federal Reserve looks as if it will start cutting rates sometime this year. It is an unusual combination and, for the stock market, possibly a potent one. It is early days still, but the rebound in profits that began in the third quarter looks poised to continue.
Persons: Nick Timiraos, Trefes Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, London Stock Exchange Group
Hedge fund investor Dan Niles said megacap tech stocks that led the market rally last year will have to start proving themselves this upcoming earnings season. Apple shares slid 6% last week after several firms downgraded the stock, citing weaker iPhone sales. On Monday, however, Apple shares rallied more than 2% as investors bought the dip in tech stocks. Niles said there will be opportunities in megacap tech stocks this earnings season for choosy investors. You're going to actually have to get the fundamentals right to make money."
Persons: Dan Niles, Niles, CNBC's, he's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Apple
Stocks will continue to rise as the U.S. skirts a recession in 2024, according to CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall. "By the end of 2024, CFRA sees the S & P 500 challenging the 5,000 level," Stovall wrote in a Friday note. "But since large, round numbers traditionally act like rusty doors, requiring several attempts before finally swinging open, our year-end target for the S & P 500 is 4,940." .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 has gained about 21% from the start of 2023. Stovall's forecast implies about 7% upside for the S & P 500 to the end of 2024.
Persons: Sam Stovall, CFRA, Stovall, Stocks, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Reserve, Treasury Locations: U.S
Despite an overall slump in startup funding, 2023 saw a scramble among investors to pour money into AI and machine learning startups. And the company's star still appears to be rising, despite a messy leadership struggle that recently spilled into public view. Meanwhile OpenAI's perennial rival Anthropic attracted multi-billion dollar investments from both Google and Amazon to fund a competing AI model known as Claude. At the same time legacy companies from John Deere to accounting firm PwC played up their AI bona fides to capitalize on the hype. The list doesn't include startups who have not publicly released the amount of their funding rounds.
Persons: OpenAI, Anthropic, Claude, Databricks, John Deere, PwC, Fresh Organizations: Microsoft, Google, Alpha, Technology, Monogram, Sigma, Lambda, Helsing, Metals, Eagle Eye, Amelia, Asimov, Farmers Business, Harbinger, Prins, Silo, Mistral, Alto, AMP, Management Software, Universal, Coro, Kodiak Robotics, Aerospace, Defense, Sana, Corti, Kyte, Mitra, Tech, Boss Digital Technology, Halcyon, & $ Locations: PitchBook
The October jobs report — with the economy adding just 150,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9% — was a disappointment. Of particular notice, the unemployment rate has increased by half a percentage point over the past six months. A simple way to show that things are still in balance is to look at Okun's law, a relationship between movements in the unemployment rate and economic activity. The historical record shows that once it rises half a percentage point, the unemployment rate tends to rise even more. The unemployment rate is already above the Fed's year-end forecast of 3.8% — the first time that's happened since March 2022.
Persons: Jerome Powell, it's, It's, we're, What's, what's, Neil Dutta Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Macro Locations: joblessness, nonfarm payrolls
COVID), and active funds are hugging their benchmarks," Subramanian wrote in a note about her 2024 outlook. "We're bullish not because we expect the Fed to cut, but because of what the Fed has accomplished," Subramanian wrote. BMO Capital MarketsBofA analysts are calling for slower inflation, better profit margins, and improved efficiency, Subramanian wrote. BMO is less optimistic about energy stocks since they've lagged behind oil prices in the last year. Consumer discretionary is a strong bet if interest rate hikes are over and consumers keep spending, Subramanian wrote.
Persons: Brian Belski, Belski, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Bank of America BMO's Belski, he's, boomers, BofA Organizations: Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, Business, BMO, Federal Reserve, " Bank of, Energy, BMO isn't Locations: Ukraine, Israel
The Libertines, Yeah Yeah Yeahs, Modest Mouse and Amy Winehouse might all be considered part of the movement, albeit in very different ways. Ferguson’s debut book “Indie, Seen” offers a raw and nostalgic look at the early-2000s, with behind-the-scenes portraits depicting artists from Interpol to Kasabian, Peaches to PJ Harvey. Piper Ferguson The Strokes, shot for 'Rolling Stone' in 2001 after their performance at The Troubadour in Hollywood. Piper Ferguson The Yeah Yeah Yeahs performing at the NY Parking Lot show in Williamsburg, New York, in 2002. Piper Ferguson Beck, who graces the cover of "Indie,Seen," is pictured in a shot for 'Mojo' magazine in 2006.
Persons: Britney Spears, Christina Aguilera, Pete Doherty, Julian Casablancas, Amy Winehouse, Piper Ferguson, Ferguson’s, Kasabian, PJ Harvey, , ” Johnny Marr, Ferguson, Iwan Gronow, Jack Mitchell, Beck, Piper Ferguson Greg Lee, Hepcat, Ferguon, Piper Ferguson Beck, Shalyce Benfell, ” Ferguson, , Piper Ferguson There’s Joe Strummer, Richard Ashcroft, Johnny Marr, Coldplay, LA’s Chateau Marmont, Blood, ” “, Greg Lee, Don’t Organizations: CNN, Sony, Interpol, DJ, Coachella, Coachella —, Verve, Smiths, West, LA’s, taco, Mojo, , Spotify, Insight Locations: Los Angeles, taco, Hollywood, Los Feliz, Williamsburg , New York, Portland , Oregon, London,
Our Merch, Ourselves
  + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( Melissa Kirsch | More About Melissa Kirsch | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +3 min
Why do we buy merch, or shy away from it? What does the merch you wear say about who you are, what you believe in? Carrying the bag in your own city seemed too boosterish, too earnest for a New Yorker, whereas outside the city, the local merch telegraphs your hometown pride and N.Y.C. Once you leave the place, the merch becomes a souvenir, a nostalgic keepsake. Debating the laws of merch is a diversion, an amusing exercise in questioning our own pieties.
Persons: Spaeny, “ Priscilla, , It’s, Hannah, Priscilla, Priscilla Presley, Priscilla ”, Sofia Coppola, ” “, it’s, leashes, I’d, Justin Bieber Organizations: tote, telegraphs, Los Angeles Dodgers, American Locations: rhinestones, New York, Brooklyn, New, L.A
The economy can still grow without driving inflation, and that would be an ideal scenario for the stock market. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe latest economic data suggests a type of Goldilocks scenario is about to play out in both the economy and stock market. AdvertisementAdvertisement"We think the economy started a productivity growth boom in early 2016 that was interrupted by the pandemic. This year, our growth is being driven by productivity... productivity driven growth brings inflation down, it's good for earnings, but it does drive yields up. For evidence of a surge in productivity growth, he pointed to the fact that job hirings have slowed this year compared to last year, but GDP growth has surged.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, , Yardeni, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel Organizations: Service
That has allowed forests to become four to seven times more densely wooded than they once were, Safford said. Fire scientists advocate more deliberate burning at low-to-moderate severity to clear vegetation that makes forests susceptible to big fires. Susan Britting, executive director of one of the groups, Sierra Forest Legacy, acknowledged any cutting triggers skepticism because loggers historically took the largest, most marketable trees. But she said thinning trees up to a certain diameter is acceptable, though she prefers prescribed burning. Homeowners are anxious prescribed fires will jump perimeters and destroy houses.
Persons: ” Hugh Safford, Davis, John Muir, What’s, Safford, “ We're, , Brandon Collins, Chad Hanson, there's, Hanson, Christy Brigham, ” John Muir, Jeffrey, “ John Muir, ” Safford, gesturing, , it's, Weeks, Susan Britting, ” Britting, John Muir Project's Hanson, Safford —, that's, what’s Organizations: University of California, Eldorado National, Sierra, U.S ., American Geophysical Union, John Muir Project, Earth Island Institute, Sequoia, National Parks, National Park Service, U.S . Forest Service, Service, Forest Service, Infrastructure Law, Sierra Forest Locations: Calif, Lake, Eldorado, Sierra Nevada, U.S, California, . California, Yosemite, Sequoia, Canyon, , Berkeley, Lake Tahoe, Safford, New, Sierra
But after years of trying, the basic structure of buying and selling a home remains pretty much the same. Even if you accept a bit of intricacy, real estate remains a stodgy industry — and regulation is at the core of that resistance to change. Despite the best efforts of would-be disruptors to cut out this middleman, 88% of buyers this year enlisted a real-estate agent, a Zillow survey found. Short of a tech-enabled homebuying nirvana, there are some other changes that could make the process easier for consumers. Saul Klein, an early internet evangelist in the real-estate industry, told me he sees an approaching "paradigm shift."
Persons: that's, you'll, they're, it's, Mike DelPrete, Rob Hahn, DelPrete, aren't, they'd, pocketing, , ClosingCorp, we're, John Berkowitz, hasn't, Berkowitz, They're, Bobby Bryant, Bryant, Rich Barton, Wendy Gilch, Gilch, Saul Klein, Klein, James Rodriguez Organizations: Companies, University of Colorado Boulder, National Association of Realtors, Ojo, Group Inc, Universal Locations: Washington, California, Georgia
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