The MOVE index - a bond market volatility gauge - hit a two-month high on Monday, underscoring those mixed signals and uncertainty about the near-term.
In the June 17-24 poll, over 60% of fixed-income strategists, or 25 of 41, who answered an additional question said a significant sell-off in global bond markets was likely over the next three months.
(Graphic - Reuters Poll: Major sovereign bond yields outlook, )Still, beyond the near-term, yields on major sovereign bonds were expected to have risen relatively modestly in a year, according to the poll of 80 fixed-income strategists.
The Fed’s heavy presence in bond markets as a buyer is expected to prevent a runaway rise in yields, which the central bank will not want to happen.
When asked how high would U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rise to over the next three months, the median of 30 analysts was 1.75%, with forecasts ranging between 1.5% and 2.0%.
Persons:
Lucas Jackson, Jerome Powell, Powell, We’re, ”, Elwin de Groot, “ We’re, Leslie Falconio, Guneet Dhingra, Morgan Stanley, “
Organizations:
REUTERS, Lucas Jackson Financial, Federal, Rabobank, Fed, UBS Global Wealth Management, U.S, Treasury
Locations:
BENGALURU, New York City , New York, U.S