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10 mentions found


☆ Small business owners could be poised for a 1990s-like boom
  + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( John Towfighi | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
This has spiked the interest rates small business owners are paying on new mortgages, credit, and loans. Related storiesPowell said that small business owners are poised to benefit regardless of the size of the cut and should remain hopeful about future growth. According to the National Federation of Independent Businesses, small business confidence dipped in August. AdvertisementHe said small businesses tend to be more credit-constrained, so changes in interest rates are particularly influential for business owners' management decisions. Are you a small business owner who has experienced a recent change in sales or hiring?
Persons: —, Phil Powell, it's, Powell, Jerome Powell, Sean Higgins, Higgins Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Indiana Business Research Center, Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Federal Open Markets, Treasury Department, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University
☆ American workers are stuck in place because everyone is too afraid of a recession to quit
  + stars: | 2024-08-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
The stagnation has resulted in a rise in "stuck" workers — frustrated employees who say they want to quit a job, but are staying put as the fear of a potential recession looms in the backs of their minds. Google search interest for the search phrase "quitting job" is down 11% over the last year, according to data accessed from the search analytics tool Glimpse. AdvertisementGoogle search interest in the term "recession" has exploded 230% over the past month, Glimpse data shows. Google search interest in "recession" has more than doubled in the past month. Job market forecasters say the slowdown in hiring looks poised to continue, even if the Fed begins to loosen monetary policy.
Persons: —, That's, Amanda, It's, I've, Raymond Lee, Careerminds, Korn, Radhika Papandreou, Papandreou Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board, Google, Fed, National Federation of Independent
☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns stocks look 'eerily similar' to how they did before their 25% drop in 2022 — and says the US economy is still heading for a downturn
  + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, —, Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI
☆ 'The damage has already been done': A 31-year market vet shares 3 pieces of evidence that the labor market is about to collapse, sending the economy into recession and the stock market spiraling
  + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
The US economy added just 150,000 jobs, under the expected 180,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, now 0.5% higher than its low earlier this year. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/Bullandbearprofits.comSecond, the inverted yield curve is starting to steepen. An inverted yield curve has been an extremely reliable recession indicator over the last several decades. Bullandbearprofits.com"Proven leading indicators show that the unemployment rate is likely to start rising materially soon. Piper SandlerIn addition to the yield curve and employment indicators above, other recession indicators continue to point to a downturn ahead.
Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merril Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, bode, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent, Fed, Bank of America, Societe Generale's, Generale, Edwards . Societe Generale Locations: lockstep, Edwards .
☆ Inflation is cooling, but the price hikes aren’t done
  + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Lucy Bayly | Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
Inflation in the United States has unquestionably cooled after hitting 40-year highs last year. Other key inflation gauges, the more comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and the wholesale-focused Producer Price Index, have moderated as well. A spike in gas prices and other components such as persistently high shelter costs have kept inflation elevated. The locally owned Walnut Group restaurant company closed its venerable Mediterranean Restaurant (fondly called The Med), the French bistro Brasserie Ten Ten and the newer Italian entrant Via Perla. Courtesy Tim Romano PhotographyAlthough Brasserie Ten Ten had a nearly two-decade run before its closure, it was like starting a brand new restaurant, Hessel said.
Persons: Marlon Pando, White Lotus, Tony Hessel, he’s, Jerome Powell, Brandon Bell, —, ”, Lydia Boussour, United States —, Pando, “, Price, Frederic J . Brown, Mark Zandi, Chase Castor, hadn’t, Holly Wade, Peggy Romano, Romano, Brasserie, Tim Romano, Hessel, ” Hessel, you’ve, it’s Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Disney, Mexican Grill, White, Getty, Moody’s, National Federation of Independent, Washington Post, NFIB Research, shocker, Walnut Group, Via Perla Locations: Minneapolis, New Jersey, Boulder , Colorado, United States, Mexican, Austin , Texas, Alhambra , California, AFP, Marion , Kansas, —, Walnut
☆ A 32-year market vet warns a recession is still on the way as the Fed's jumbo rate hikes continue to work their way into the economy — and shares 3 reasons why stocks are overvalued by 35%
  + stars: | 2023-09-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
The hikes scared investors into thinking a recession would be on the way. But today, the labor market remains strong and inflation is under 4%, prompting rosier outlooks about the fate of the US economy. Rate hikes take time to work their way into the economy. But their main adversary going forward is going to be the Fed, with inflation still elevated. The Consumer Price Index is at 3.7% year-over-year, and core inflation, which the Fed watches closely, is even higher at 4.3%.
Persons: Michael Pento, Piper Sandler, Pento, Louis, LEI, Greg Boutle, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Jeremy Grantham, Merrill Lynch, Gary Shilling, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Conference, Stock, Robeco, Nasdaq, BNP, Fed
☆ European stocks outperform as Italy soothes bank tax nerves
  + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
[1/2] Signage for the London Stock Exchange Group is seen outside of offices in Canary Wharf in London, Britain, August 3, 2023. MSCI's broad index of global shares (.MIWD00000PUS) was 0.2% higher in European afternoon trade. Europe's regional Stoxx 600 (.STOXX) share index rose 0.9%, with bank stocks (.SX7P) around 1.6% higher. Italy's FTSE MIB share index gained 1.8%. "The burden-sharing of the costs and benefits from higher rates has a habit of becoming a political issue," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said.
Persons: Toby Melville, Jim Reid, China's, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Sydney, Ellen Zhang, Christina Fincher, David Evans Organizations: London Stock Exchange, REUTERS, China CPI, Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Moody's, U.S . National Federation of Independent, Wednesday, U.S . Treasury, BCA, Reserve, Brent, U.S . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, China, Italy, Thursday's U.S, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Beijing
☆ Wall St Week Ahead Amid banking woes, faltering US small-caps offer ominous economic sign
  + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
NEW YORK, May 12 (Reuters) - A U.S. stocks rally is leaving behind smaller companies, a sign that investors may be bracing for economic turmoil ahead. "Typically in a recession, small caps underperform." Last month it downgraded its view on U.S. small caps from "unfavorable" to "most unfavorable." Some investors are more upbeat about the outlook for small caps, particularly when looking beyond the next several months. One reason is that small caps, being sensitive to economic fluctuations, tend to shine early in a market recovery.
☆ A chief economist who called the 2008 recession sees signs that the economy has already begun to unravel — and says a recession will be apparent as early as this summer
  + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
The unemployment rate will start to rise this summer, says Ian Shepherdson. The US economy is already starting to unravel and a recession will arrive as soon as this summer, according to Ian Shepherdson, the founder and chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics. "We expect to see payrolls falling in the summer, pushing up the unemployment rate." Shepherdson pointed to the National Federation of Independent Businesses Hiring Intentions survey as a leading indicator of where the job market is headed. The current unemployment rate of 3.5% still sits near a more than five-decade low.
☆ U.S. weekly jobless claims fall; monthly producer prices rebound
  + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
WASHINGTON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, offering more evidence of the economy's resilience despite tighter monetary policy. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 194,000 for the week ended Feb. 11, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims remain low despite high-profile layoffs in the technology sector and other industries highly sensitive to interest rates. Some of the laid-off workers are likely finding new work or are delaying filing for benefits because of severance packages. A second report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed monthly producer prices accelerating in January.
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