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☆ The Fed will only cut rates when it's panicking over a recession and a market crash, Black Swan investor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should be wary of coming Fed rate cuts, Black Swan investor Mark Spitznagel warned. That's because the Fed is only cutting rates in response to a weakening economy, Spitznagel told Reuters last week. The US could see a recession and major stock crash before rates head lower, he predicted. That's because the Fed is only likely to ease monetary policy when the economy is slammed with a recession and the market is flailing, according to famous "Black Swan" investor Mark Spitznagel. "There are lag effects when you reset interest rates like we had."

Persons: Black Swan, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, —, Swan, Nassim Taleb Organizations: Reuters, Service, Federal Reserve, Universa, Federal, National Association of Business Economics, Investor

☆ Nearly everyone has given up on their recession call, and that makes the outlook 'dangerously reminiscent' of 2007, SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recession views are dangerously similar to those in 2007, SocGen's Albert Edwards said. Soft landing or no landing outlooks are growing on Wall Street as the US appears on solid economic footing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Those signs appear lost on many other market commentators, who have dialed back their recession views in the last few months. "All this is (dangerously) reminiscent of 2007, when all around were telling me I was wrong and should give up calling that much-delayed recession," he later added.

Persons: SocGen's Albert Edwards, Edwards, —, Société, Albert Edwards, That's, Doom, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, Chicago, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, National Federation of Independent Business, National Association of Business, Fed, Investor Locations: York

WASHINGTON (AP) — Just a quarter of business economists and analysts expect the United States to fall into recession this year. But respondents to a National Association of Business Economics survey released Monday still expect year-over-year inflation to exceed 2.5% -- above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target – through 2024. But the economy unexpectedly kept growing and employers kept hiring and resisting layoffs despite higher borrowing costs. The Fed has stopped raising rates and has signaled that it expects to reduce rates three times this year. Another 85% are worried about political instability in the United States before or after the Nov. 5 presidential election.

Persons: –, ’ ’, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac Organizations: WASHINGTON, National Association of Business Economics, Fed Locations: United States, China, U.S, Taiwan

☆ Premarket stocks: why over-optimistic investors may want to pump the brakes
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

There’s plenty for investors to celebrate right now, but a look under the hood reveals quite a bit of decay. But it’s largely Big Tech that’s driving markets higher, and that concentration of gains in so few stocks carries inherent risk. But investors are adjusting expectations: Investors eventually get used to strong data, and come to expect it. “It’s hard for data to keep surprising in the same direction, since investors simply adjust their expectations,” said Allen. Just one month ago, more than 75% of investors thought the central bank would cut rates at their March meeting.

Persons: Bell, Debbie Downer, Wall, Dow, Germany’s DAX, Henry Allen, ”, Allen, Christopher Waller, That’s, Bill Gates, Larry Fink, Chris Isidore, “ I’m, Scott Kirby, they’ve, ” Kirby, Boeing Max, Max, Kirby, “ We’re, Samantha Delouya, Amy Reinhard, Netflix’s, “, we’ve Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nvidia, Microsoft, Investment, Deutsche Bank, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, University of, National Association of Business Economics, University of Michigan, Fed, ” Financial, BlackRock, Boeing United Airlines, Boeing, United, CNBC, Alaska Airlines, Federal Aviation Administration, United Airlines, Refinitiv, Max, FAA, Netflix Locations: New York, Europe

☆ A key indicator shows Americans' financial stress is mounting
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

LegalShield's Consumer Stress Legal Index showed consumer financial stress is continuing to rise. LegalShield on Tuesday said its Consumer Stress Legal Index rose to 66.7 in December, up by 0.4 points from the prior month, showing that US consumers' financial stress is at its highest level since November 2020. AdvertisementUS consumer financial stress has soared to its highest in three years. "The rise in consumer stress in contrast to increased spending may point to an even sharper rise in household debt in the coming months." The increase in consumers' financial stress comes even as GDP growth has stayed strong, the labor market remains robust, and holiday retail spending was high.

Persons: —, Matt Layton Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ NABE survey: Optimism on the rise
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNABE survey: Optimism on the riseCNBC's Steve Liesmen joins 'The Exchange' to report on the latest survey by the National Association of Business Economics.

Persons: Steve Liesmen Organizations: National Association of Business Economics

☆ A year ago most economists expected a recession. Now 91% say otherwise.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe vast majority of economists see a recession as unlikely in the next year, according to the latest survey from the National Association of Business Economics. New results out Monday showed 91% now assign a probability of 50% or less for a slowdown in the next 12 months. AdvertisementOnly 9% of respondents reported a recession being more likely than not, down from 18% in the previous survey. Since 1968, the recession indicator has gone eight for eight in preceding a recession.

Persons: —, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Campbell Harvey Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Business, The University of, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department

☆ We thought we avoided recession. Turns out we're not in the clear yet.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The US economy showed signs of a soft landing this summer. In September, the Federal Reserve buoyed those hopes by keeping interest rates unchanged for the first time since the first quarter of 2022. At the start of the rate increase, many borrowers, such as existing homeowners, had low mortgage interest rates locked in. As the economist David Rosenberg says, it typically takes six months for a recession to hit the economy after interest rates increase by this much. AdvertisementAdvertisementAnd while Powell said a soft landing is "possible," he also warned that it could be decided by factors "outside our control."

Persons: —, Taylor, Oppenheimer, Morgan, David Rosenberg, Eric Thayer, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Costco, Bloomberg, Gas Locations: Monterey Park , California

☆ The US consumer is starting to crack
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

AdvertisementAdvertisementEven as interest rates skyrocketed over the past 18 months, a good job market and strong consumer spending kept the US economy moving. However, there are growing signs that the strength of the US consumer is starting to crack. Earlier this month, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected. At the start of the rate increase, borrowers, like existing homeowners, had low mortgage interest rates locked in. Even dollar stores are starting to feel the pressure of more measured spending after initially benefitting from inflation as wealthier people looked for more value.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, It'll, Jerome Powell, Powell, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, United Auto Workers, National Association of Business Economics, Bank of America, Conference Board, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Costco Locations: Michigan

☆ Two key Fed officials express support for keeping interest rates high
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Two Federal Reserve policymakers expressed support Friday for keeping interest rates elevated as the battle against too-high inflation continues. In separate speeches, Governor Michelle Bowman and Boston Fed President Susan Collins said there's still the possibility that the Fed will have to raise rates further if economic data doesn't cooperate. The commentary comes two days after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee decided not to raise rates following its two-day meeting. While choosing not to raise rates, officials indicated they still see one more increase coming this year, then potentially two cuts in 2024, assuming moves of 0.25 percentage point at a time. "There are some promising signs that inflation is moderating and the economy rebalancing," Collins said.

Persons: Susan Collins, Michelle Bowman, there's, Bowman's, Bowman, Collins, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, National Association of Business Economics, Federal, Boston Fed, Market Locations: Washington , DC, Vail , Colorado, Maine

☆ Fed's Bostic says U.S. interest rates are high enough
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks to reporters at the National Association of Business Economics' annual policy meeting in Washington, U.S. March 21, 2022. "I feel policy is appropriately restrictive," Bostic said in remarks prepared for delivery to the South African Reserve Bank Biennial Conference in Cape Town, South Africa. "We should be cautious and patient and let the restrictive policy continue to influence the economy, lest we risk tightening too much and inflicting unnecessary economic pain." U.S. central bankers are widely expected to leave the Fed's policy rate in the current range of 5.25%-5.5% when they next meet in a little less than three weeks. Bostic has been in the minority at the Fed, cautioning against over-tightening policy and needlessly hurting jobs and livelihoods.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Ann Saphir, Bostic, Bostic's, Richard Chang Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, National Association of Business Economics, REUTERS, South African Reserve Bank Biennial, U.S, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Cape Town , South Africa, U.S

☆ Businesses see lower odds U.S. in or entering recession, NABE says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] People line up outside a Kentucky Career Center hoping to find assistance with their unemployment claim in Frankfort, Kentucky, U.S. June 18, 2020. Approximately 53% of those polled by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) said they had a more than-even expectation the United States would enter a recession over the next 12 months, while 3% indicated they thought the country was already in one. In the NABE's previous poll released in October, 64% of respondents indicated that the U.S. economy was either already in a recession or had a more-than-even likelihood of entering one in the next 12 months. A total of 60 NABE members who work for private-sector firms or industry trade associations responded to the latest survey, which was conducted from Jan. 4-11. Inflation, based on the Fed's preferred measure, is still nearly three times the central bank's 2% target.

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