Data suggests recession risks remain high, but wages and U.S. and European interest rates are also still rising - so stick or twist? Here are five big calls investors are now making. Principal Global Investors chief global strategist Seema Shah said she maintained her view that government bonds would do well with recession still likely by year-end. Reuters Graphics4/ FRAGILE CHINASpluttering data, property market woes and meek economic stimulus have also busted new year bets of a Chinese mini-boom. Principal Global Investors' Shah said she still expected commodities to continue to struggle "because a combination of U.S. slowdown plus China slowdown should mean weak demand."

---

Persons: Bonds, Francesco Sandrini, Seema Shah, JP Morgan, Trevor Greetham, Florian Ielpo, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Morgan Stanley, Shah, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Alun John, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Reuters, Global Investors, Royal London Asset Management, Lombard, Swiss, Bank of America, Fed, FX, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: bitcoin, Europe's, British, tatters, Japan, CHINA