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Sales of newly built homes dropped 4.7% in April compared with March, and dropped a larger 7.7% from the prior year, the U.S. Census said Thursday. Higher mortgage rates are clearly hampering sales. Some of that is due to the mix of homes selling, which is mostly on the higher end of the market. Those buyers are not as influenced by mortgage rates, as they often use all cash. The big production builders have been buying down mortgage rates to help boost sales, but they are able to do that because of their size.
Persons: Peter Boockvar, Robert Dietz, NAHB's Organizations: Spring Barbera Homes, Builders, Toll Brothers, Bleakley Financial, CNBC, National Association of Home Builders, Wells Fargo . Locations: Loudonville , New York, U.S, Horton, Wells Fargo
Read previewNew-home sales rebounded in December, rising 8% as homebuyers rushed to take advantage of falling mortgage rates, US Census Bureau data shows. But while consumers appear eager to re-engage with the housing market, new purchases don't mean an immediate move-in for some. This decline from 8% peak levels in October was spurred by bets that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates. Of that, new homes took on a bigger share of the inventory, as high mortgage rates kept homeowners from selling. Still, NAHB's CEO Jim Tobin separately expects construction and demand to take off in 2024, once consumers realize ultra-low mortgage rates aren't coming back.
Persons: , homebuyers, Skillington, Jim Tobin Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, National Association of Homebuilders
Read previewThe housing market is about to exit its slowdown and take off in a new growth period, according to National Association of Home Builders CEO Jim Tobin. AdvertisementThat's partly because mortgage rates have continued their steady decline in recent months. At the same time, prospective buyers are likely warming up to the new norm of 6% mortgage rates, and could be readying themselves to jump back into the housing market, he said. "I think that the world is getting ready to realize that we're no longer going back to those 3%-4% mortgage rates. Improving affordability conditions could cause home sales to jump 5% while home prices decline 1% in 2024, according to Redfin.
Persons: , Jim Tobin, Tobin, Freddie Mac Organizations: Service, National Association of Home Builders, Business, Yahoo Finance, Mortgage, Association . Housing
High mortgage rates continue to weigh on the nation's homebuilders, leading to an increase in price cuts to lure buyers. But builders are cautiously optimistic about recent signs that interest rates may move lower soon. Homebuilder sentiment fell six points to 34 in November on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Sentiment is down 22 points since July and is now at the lowest level since the end of last year. "In particular, the 10-year Treasury rate moved back to the 4.5% range for the first time since late September, which will help bring mortgage rates close to or below 7.5%," he said.
Persons: Alicia Huey, Robert Dietz, NAHB's Organizations: National Association of Home Builders, Market, Treasury Locations: Wells Fargo
Lifestylevisuals | E+ | Getty ImagesHow home affordability has changedIn August 2020, the typical monthly mortgage payment was $1,581, based on an average interest rate of 2.94%, Redfin found. Nowadays, the typical U.S. homebuyer's monthly mortgage payment is $2,866, according to Redfin — an all-time high. "In the next year or two years, interest rates will be lower, and people will have the ability to refinance." That said, competition for homes on the market is likely to be worse in a few years as interest rates cool, she said. "When interest rates come down, everyone's going to come back to the marketplace," said Cohn.
Persons: Redfin, homebuyers, Mark Hamrick, Alicia Huey, Melissa Cohn, William Raveis, Cohn Organizations: Bankrate.com, Istock, Federal Reserve, CNBC, William Raveis Mortgage Locations: U.S, Birmingham , Alabama, New York
Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes dropped to the lowest level since January, as builders contend with a market dominated by high mortgage rates and costs for financing. The monthly National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped 4 points to 40 in October, and September's read was revised down 1 point. Builders point squarely to mortgage rates, which are now at a 23-year high. Regionally, on a three-month moving average, builder sentiment in the Northeast fell 4 points to 50 and in the Midwest dropped 3 points to 39. In the South it fell 5 points to 49, and in the West it fell 6 points to 41.
Persons: September's, Alicia Huey, Robert Dietz, NAHB's Organizations: National Association of Home Builders, Builders, Midwest, CNBC Locations: Wells Fargo, Birmingham , Alabama, West
Sales of newly built homes fell 8.7% in August from July, to a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 675,000 units, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Census count is based on signed contracts during the month, and mortgage rates took a sharp jump higher. The median price of a newly built home sold in August was $430,300, a drop of 2% compared with August of last year. Homebuilders have been lowering prices as well as offering more incentives, like buying down mortgage rates. One of the nation's largest homebuilders, Lennar, recently reported strong earnings, but that was for a quarter where mortgage rates hadn't hit their highest yet.
Persons: Imogen Pattison, Homebuilders, Stuart Miller, Miller, Robert Dietz, NAHB's Organizations: . Census, Mortgage News, Capital Economics, National Association of Home Builders
U.S. homebuilders are feeling pessimistic about their business for the first time in seven months, thanks to stubbornly high mortgage rates. Builder confidence in the single-family housing market fell 5 points in September to 45 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Current sales conditions fell 6 points to 51, and sales expectations in the next six months also dropped 6 points to 49. Builders cite weaker affordability due to higher mortgage rates. While builders are still benefiting from the lack of supply on the existing sales market, they are also facing hurdles other than higher interest rates.
Persons: Robert Dietz, NAHB's, Alicia Huey Organizations: National Association of Home Builders, Builders Locations: Wells Fargo, Birmingham , Alabama, Midwest, West
Rising mortgage rates are hitting potential homebuyers hard, and that is taking steam out of the homebuilding market. That is the first decline in seven months and the lowest level since May, when sentiment first rose out of negative territory. Mortgage rates are now holding solidly over 7%, hitting 7.24% Monday, according to Mortgage News Daily. Higher mortgage rates and the decline in buyer activity has more builders using sales incentives once again. The share of builders using all types of incentives, including buying down interest rates, rose to 55% in August from 52% in July.
Persons: Alicia Huey, NAHB, Robert Dietz, NAHB's Organizations: National Association of Home Builders, Mortgage News Locations: Wells Fargo, Birmingham , Alabama, Midwest
The last, best hope for homebuyers
  + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +12 min
But there may be one last hope for salvation for these hard-pressed homebuyers: brand-spanking new houses. Many builders are even dangling perks like cheaper loans or other discounts to ease the pain of higher mortgage rates. Homebuilding is typically a cyclical industry, following the ups and downs of the broader housing market. Of course, people will always move for reasons that have nothing to do with mortgage rates. Even if buyers get some relief from new housing construction, builders are still a long way off from bridging the housing shortfall.
Persons: Richard de Chazal, William Blair, de Chazal, Realtor.com, bottoming, John Burns, Black Knight, Mike Simonsen, Simonsen, bode, it's, Sheryl Palmer, Taylor Morrison, Palmer, Cristian deRitis, Jay Parsons, Matthew Walsh, Walsh, Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun, They're, production's, James Rodriguez Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, John Burns Research, Consulting, Altos Research, National Association of Homebuilders, Builders, Moody's
Builder sentiment in the market for single-family homes rose 1 point in July to 56, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Builders say low supply in the resale market is driving demand for new construction, but higher mortgage rates and supply-side challenges continue to put pressure on the market. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage crossed over 7% briefly in May and then again at the end of June. Those higher rates are straining affordability in the market, where prices for existing homes are rising yet again. Despite higher mortgage rates, however, builders are using fewer incentives.
Persons: Robert Dietz, NAHB's Organizations: National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve, . Census Locations: Wells Fargo
New US home construction surges by most in 3 decades in May
  + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.631 million units last month from April's downwardly revised 1.34 million, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. May's rate was the highest since April 2022, which was then the highest since 2006. Starts rose by double-digit margins in the South, Midwest and West while declining by nearly 19% in the Northeast. Permits for future construction, for instance, rose 5.2% to the highest since October at 1.491 million units, led by a 27.1% surge in the Northeast. Permits for single-family projects rose 4.8% while multi-family were up 7.8%.
Persons: April's, Ben Ayers, Alicia Huey, Dan Burns, Conor Humphries, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Housing, April's downwardly, Commerce Department, Reuters, Nationwide, National Association of Home Builders, Mortgage, Association, Thomson Locations: South, Midwest, West, Wells Fargo
Morning Bid: US housing rebound, China prime cuts
  + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The main macroeconomic news overnight was a rather underwhelming Chinese rate cut that seemed to disappoint the local stock and currency markets, both of which fell. The People's Bank of China cut two benchmark lending rates - its one-year and five-year loan prime rates - by 10 basis points each. With Goldman Sachs on Monday the latest to cut China growth forecasts for this year and next, nerves about the economy's trajectory are rising again. The big U.S. data input this week is from the housing sector, where signs of some recovery are reinforcing 'soft landing' hopes for the wider economy. On Monday, the NAHB's house market sentiment index rose in June to its highest in almost a year and far above forecasts.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Goldman Sachs, Xi Jinping, Antony Blinken, Joe Biden, what's, BOE, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, John Williams, St Louis, James Bullard, Narendra Modi, Susan Fenton Organizations: Nasdaq, People's Bank of China, Washington, China's, of, Global, Bank of, Federal Reserve, FedEx, Philadelphia Fed, Federal, New York Fed, St, St Louis Fed, Indian, United States Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Xi, Europe, Britain, Switzerland, Norway, Turkey, Bank, Bank of England, United
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHousing market will be 'sideways' until mortgage rates get to low 6%, says Compass CEORobert Reffkin, Compass CEO and co-founder, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if the economy is on the upswing in the housing market, whether the market should be worse, and what happens with NAHB's Prospective Buyers Traffic data if there's relief in rates.
It's the fifth straight month of gains and the first reading of builder sentiment since July that wasn't negative, which would be a reading below 50. With mortgage rates now double what they were a year and a half ago, some potential sellers may be reluctant to trade to another home at a higher rate. Homebuilders also drew more buyers by offering incentives, like buying down mortgage rates. Sentiment in the Midwest rose 2 points to 39. In the South, it increased 3 points to 52, and in the West moved 3 points higher to 41.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 45 in April, a one-point gain. Builders in the report cited a lack of listings on the resale market, which gave them an unusually strong edge. Slightly lower mortgage rates are also helping demand — though rates are still higher than they were a year ago. "Builders note that additional declines in mortgage rates, to below 6%, will price-in further demand for housing," said Alicia Huey, NAHB chairman and a custom homebuilder and developer from Birmingham, Alabama. It marked the first time both of the indicators were positive since June, when mortgage rates really took off.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose two points to 44. "But given recent instability concerns in the banking system and volatility in interest rates, builders are highly uncertain about the near- and medium-term outlook." Of the index's three components, current sales conditions rose two points to 49, and buyer traffic rose three points to 31. Accordingly, the housing market continues shifting as growing household and family formation continued to drive demand against a chronic supply shortage." In the South it rose five points to 45, and in the West it moved four points higher to 34.
According to two separate indices existing home prices rose to the highest level in 6 years. Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesThe U.S. housing market cooled off pretty dramatically last year, after mortgage rates more than doubled from historic lows. Now, as demand appears to be coming back into the market, due to a slight drop in mortgage rates, prices are pushing back. But mortgage rates began to fall in December, and prices reacted immediately. Lower mortgage rates are driving the new demand.
Sales of new U.S. homes retreated in January after a flurry of purchases at the end of 2021, indicating a jump in mortgage rates may be starting to restrain demand. Builder sentiment in the single-family housing market posted an unexpected gain in January, rising for the first time in 12 straight months. Sentiment rose four points to 35 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Both builders and consumers are likely responding to the recent drop in mortgage rates. "In the coming quarters, single-family home building will rise off of cycle lows as mortgage rates are expected to trend lower and boost housing affordability."
Moreover, the unbroken string of declines since last December is the longest in a series that dates to the mid-1980s. The housing market has seen the most pronounced effects so far of the aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that are aimed at quashing inflation that continues to hold at unacceptably high levels. Reuters GraphicsSince March, the U.S. central bank has lifted its benchmark policy rate from near zero to a range of 4.25%-4.50%. NAHB said nearly two-thirds of builders were offering incentives, including mortgage rate buydowns, paying points for buyers and price reductions. Reuters GraphicsMore key housing market data is due this week.
Homebuilder sentiment in the single-family housing market fell to the lowest level in a decade in November, as builders continue to struggle with higher costs for labor and materials and lower demand from homebuyers. A monthly sentiment index from the National Association of Home Builders dropped 5 points from October to 33. The NAHB said 59% of builders reported using incentives, a significant increase from September to November. In November, 25% of builders reported paying points for buyers, up from 13% in September. In the South, it fell 7 points to 42 and declined 5 points to 29 in the West.
Suzanne Kreiter | The Boston Globe | Getty ImagesWith rising mortgage rates, homeowners are staying in place. By the end of the first quarter of this year, before the steep runup in mortgage rates caused the housing market to falter, homeowners had a collective $11 trillion dollars in so-called tappable equity, according to Black Knight. That equity is part of a three-pronged driver of home improvement, according to the CEO of Lowe's, Marvin Ellison. "The growth rate for improvement spending will slow due to declines for existing home sales," said Robert Dietz, NAHB's chief economist. "However, an aging housing stock, work from home trends and a decline for household mobility all favor remodeling spending."
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