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☆ From the far right to fiscal challenges, France could lurch from one crisis to another
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

France's challenges are far from over, however, with the country facing acute fiscal challenges and an ongoing threat posed by the far-right National Rally opposition, led by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen. France this week asked the Commission to extend its deadline of Sept. 20 to submit debt reduction proposals. Analysts say Barnier's political survival therefore "depends on the whims and personal-political calculations of Le Pen." "The great unknown ... is how far Le Pen will be willing to address the most immediate crisis facing Barnier and the country: the painful choices needed to prevent France from plunging into a destructive fiscal crisis by the end of this year," he said. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella at the final rally before the June 9 European Parliament election, held at Le Dôme de Paris - Palais des Sports, on June 2, 2024.

Persons: La France Insoumise, Remon Haazen, Emmanuel Macron's, Michel Barnier, Jordan Bardella, Pen, Barnier's, Gabriel Attal, Sarah Meyssonnier, Reuters Barnier's, Macron —, Le, Mujtaba Rahman, France's, Eurasia Group's Rahman, Le Pen's Organizations: Republique, La, Getty, Getty Images, Veteran, National Assembly, European, France's, Reuters, New, National, Eurasia Group, Le, Palais des Sports, Nurphoto Locations: La France, Paris, France, Europe, Eurasia

☆ Who is Jordan Bardella and what might his far-right party do in power?
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( Christian Edwards | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Handpicked as leader by National Rally (RN) doyenne Marine Le Pen in an effort to purge the far-right party of its racist and antisemitic roots, Bardella has taken it closer to the gates of power than ever before. Whether the RN forms a government and Bardella becomes prime minister after the July 7 runoff is not clear. So, who is Bardella, and what might his party do in power? Le Pen and Bardella address a crowd of RN supporters in Paris, after Macron called a snap election, June 9, 2024. When the prime minister and president belong to different parties – in a rare arrangement known as “cohabitation” – things can grind to a halt.

Persons: CNN — Jordan, –, Bardella, Emmanuel Macron’s, France’s, Denis, Le Pen, Le Pen’s, Louis Aliot, Le, Macron, Julien De Rosa, Freed, Jean, Marie Le Pen, Franco, Paris Anne Hidalgo, Luc Mélenchon, ” Bardella, Julien de Rosa, Gabriel Attal, ” Mujtaba Rahman, Mario Draghi, Giorgia Meloni, Benito Mussolini, Matteo Salvini, Vladimir Putin, Antonio Masiello, Hungary’s Viktor Orban –, Macron – Organizations: CNN, National Rally, National Assembly, Front, Sorbonne university, Getty, Macron’s Ensemble, Immigrants, Ministry of, Armed Forces, New Popular Front, EU, Eurasia Group, European Union Locations: Paris, France, Europe, Seine, Macron, AFP, Vichy, Spanish, Brussels, Italy, Ukraine, Kyiv, Russia

☆ France is set for its most consequential election in decades. Here’s what you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Christian Edwards | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +12 min

CNN —France’s snap parliamentary election is one of the most momentous in decades, for both the country and the rest of Europe. Politicians rarely call an election when their party trails in the polls and there is no need to do so. Although Macron was elected to a second presidential term in 2022, his party failed to win an outright parliamentary majority. One theory about why Macron called an election now is that France might soon have been forced to the polls anyway. With Le Pen seeming increasingly likely to succeed him as president in 2027, this election may force her party to take up responsibility beforehand.

Persons: CNN —, Emmanuel Macron, he’ll, ” Kevin Arceneaux, …, France’s, Macron, Pen, Antonio Masiello, –, Laure Boyer, Hans Lucas, Gabriel Attal – Macron’s, Jordan Bardella, Bardella, Le Pen, Denis, Eric Ciotti, Jordan Bardella's, Julien De Rosa, Jean, Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël, Sylvain Thomas, Mujtaba Rahman, “, Rahman, ”, Jordan, we’re, Macron –, I’m Organizations: CNN, Paris hamstrung, –, Sciences Po, Fifth, Assembly, National Assembly, Palais Bourbon, Getty, Sorbonne university, Socialists, New, Eurasia Group Locations: Europe, France, Paris, Fifth Republic, Italy, AFP, Seine, Montpellier, Brussels, Ukraine, Kyiv, Russia

☆ French protests add to Macron's political gamble as election race heats up
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-17 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Matthieu Delaty | Afp | Getty ImagesFrance's election campaign kicked off in earnest Monday following a weekend of violent nationwide protests against the far-right National Rally, or RN, whose record European Parliament gains sparked the snap vote. Protesters gather during an anti far-right rally after French president called legislative elections following far-right parties' significant gains in European Parliament elections, in Paris on June 15, 2024. More likely, however, is a "messy" hung parliament, he said — part of Macron's gamble to discredit RN's legitimacy ahead of the 2027 presidential elections. French stocks gained on Monday, with Goldman Sachs' senior European strategist Sharon Bell saying that the sell-off may have been premature. Protesters gather during an anti-far-right rally after French President Emmanuel Macron called legislative elections following far-right parties' significant gains in European Parliament elections in Paris on June 15, 2024.

Persons: Matthieu Delaty, Jordan Bardella, France's Le, Lou Benoist, Emmanuel Macron's, Mujtaba Rahman, Mujtaba, Goldman Sachs, Sharon Bell, Bell, CNBC's, Emmanuel Macron Organizations: National Rally, Afp, Getty, France's Le Monde, CGT, CNBC, Union, Eurasia, CAC, Generale, Protesters Locations: Lyon, France, Paris, Europe

☆ Germany slides deeper into budget crisis. Here's what you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Germany didn't get to this point overnight, however — in ways, the roots of the current crisis even predate the pandemic. The government took on emergency debt to try to stem the impact the pandemic had on its budget through a temporary debt brake suspension. And so, the current coalition government decided to re-allocate it to finance policies aimed at climate change and a greener, more sustainable economy. Some observers (and several Green party members), have suggested that the climate crisis is as much of an emergency as the pandemic. But the court's ruling stands, and Germany's budget now has a 60-billion-euro ($65 billion) hole.

Persons: Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Robert Habeck, Sean Gallup, Germany didn't, fumbling, Jan Techau, Mujtaba Rahman, Jens Larsen Organizations: Finance, Getty, Greens, Free Democratic Party, Eurasia Group Locations: Berlin, Germany

BUDAPEST/PRAGUE, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Robert Fico's election win in Slovakia after he had campaigned to end military aid to Ukraine shows creeping discontent in Central Europe over the war with Russia, but analysts do not expect a major policy turn-around by Bratislava or Warsaw. Fico's victory in Saturday's election prompted concerns that his new government would see NATO-member Slovakia joining Hungary in challenging the European Union's consensus on support for Ukraine. However, analysts do not see a big policy switch regarding Ukraine in Slovakia and Poland. MODERATING EFFECTIn Slovakia, Fico's SMER-SSD party won the election with 23% of the vote. "The bigger challenges are not Slovakia, or Hungary but the U.S. election cycle and the impact that has on support for Ukraine."

Persons: Robert Fico's, Fico, Viktor Orban, Roger Hilton, Fico's, Peter Pellegrini, Samuel Abraham, Robert Fico, Zuzana Caputova, Radovan Stoklasa, Pellegrini, Abraham, legitimise, Orban, Mujtaba Rahman, Rahman, Krisztina, Jan Lopatka, Angus MacSwan Organizations: NATO, SNS, Republika, REUTERS, EU, Russia, Ukraine, Reuters, Eurasia, Thomson Locations: BUDAPEST, PRAGUE, Slovakia, Ukraine, Central Europe, Russia, Bratislava, Warsaw, Hungary, Russian Poland, Saturday's, Poland, GLOBSEC, SMER, Brussels, Budapest, Kyiv, Europe, Prague

☆ A Shrinking Footprint in Africa for France, the Former Colonizer That Stayed
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-05 | by ( Elian Peltier | More About Elian Peltier | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The country’s president, a trusted ally of France, was taken hostage in the presidential palace by his own guards in late July. A colonel in uniform appeared late Thursday on state television and announced that the military was ending its cooperation with France. The coups have fanned the flames of popular anger against France, a former colonial power that critics say never really let go of its former possessions. Now, France has become a scapegoat of sorts in a region buckling under the forces of poverty, climate change and surging Islamist militancy. “France did not see this coup coming, so they have not learned from Mali or Burkina Faso,” said Mujtaba Rahman, the managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a consultancy.

Persons: “, ”, Mujtaba Rahman Organizations: Protesters, French Embassy, Eurasia Group Locations: France, French, West African, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, “ France, Europe

☆ France's Macron seeks to show he's no lame duck as pension discontent rumbles on
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

France's President Emmanuel Macron looks on in a meeting with JP Morgan CEO during the 5th edition of the "Choose France" Business Summit, in Versailles, southwest of Paris, on July 11, 2022. Around 8,000 demonstrators took to the streets of Toulouse, France, on June 06, 2023, protesting against the government. "They know Macron has no alternative than to rely on them, making it almost impossible to develop the centrist domestic project," he said. This is largely attributable to Macron's agenda," Schmieding said, adding France was replacing Germany was the most dynamic major European economy. French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands at a Franco-Chinese business council meeting in Beijing, China April 6, 2023.

Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Morgan, Ludovic Marin, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Macron, Renaud Foucart, Foucart, Les Republicains, Mujtaba Rahman, Rahman, Bruno Le Maire, Elon Musk, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, Xi Jinping Organizations: Business, Afp, Getty, Nurphoto, Lancaster University, Eurasia Group, Macron, Finance, EU, U.S, Elon Locations: Versailles, Paris, Germany, Union, Toulouse, France, China, Ukraine, Europe, Beijing

[1/2] Drivers wait for fuel at a gas station of Hungarian oil company MOL Group in Budapest, Hungary, December 5, 2022. MOL, Hungary's main oil and gas group, has said the price cap was unsustainable as major players stopped importing fuel due to low prices, aggravating the shortage. "In the past days, the oil sanctions of Brussels took effect and what we had been afraid of, has actually happened. From now on there are sanctions prices on petrol across entire Europe," Orban said on Facebook, adding the government will "take away the extra profits generated by this" and redirect them to the state budget. At 1218 GMT, its shares traded 1.8% lower, reversing earlier gains of around 3% after the fuel price cap was ditched overnight.

☆ Reactions: UK's Truss fires Kwarteng, set to U-turn on tax cuts
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Liz Truss fired her finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng and news reports said she will scrap later on Friday parts of the economic programme of big, unfunded tax cuts that they delivered last month. Consequently, the scope for a rally in gilts (move lower in yields) and sterling would seem to be limited." BENJAMIN NABARRO, ECONOMIST, CITI"The key issue in the near term is the contradiction between monetary and fiscal policy. RACHEL REEVES, OPPOSITION LABOUR PARTY'S FINANCE CHIEF"This humiliating u-turn is necessary - but the real damage has already been done. We may well be through the worst of the volatility but I fear that the UK is nowhere near out of the woods."

☆ The UK is gripped by an economic crisis of its own making
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Mark Thompson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

“While this is welcome, the fact that it needed to be done in the first place shows that the UK markets are in a perilous position,” said Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, commenting on the bank’s intervention. “It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if another problem in the financial markets popped up before long,” Dales added. The UK government should also postpone its tax cuts, El-Erian said. We look like reckless gamblers who only care about the people who can afford to lose the gamble,” one former Conservative minister told CNN. “Truss and Kwarteng are now facing a severe economic crisis as the world’s financial markets wait for them to make policy changes that they and the Conservative party will find unpalatable,” the Eurasia analysts wrote.

"Were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to UK financial stability," the BoE warned. One source at the Treasury said Kwarteng would not resign, and the government would not reverse its policy. A second person familiar with the situation said Truss still backed Kwarteng and they would announce further economic reforms soon. One source at the meeting said Kwarteng had asked the assembled finance bosses what they could do to calm markets. U.S. bond giant PIMCO said it would have less confidence in sterling than it did before last Friday's announcement.

☆ Premarket stocks: Ronald Reagan's tax lesson for Britain
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Citibank analysts called the decision a “huge, unfunded gamble for the UK economy.” Markets dropped precipitously on the news. But much like Truss, Reagan argued that massive tax cuts and deregulation would stimulate productivity and he championed a sweeping tax cut that was passed by Congress that year. According to US Treasury estimates, Reagan’s tax cuts reduced federal revenues by about 9% in the first couple of years. A lesson from history: “When tax cuts are really too big to be sustainable, they’re often followed by tax increases,” wrote David Wessel, director of The Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy. The US dollar appreciated during the Reagan tax cuts because it benefits from global reserve currency status.

☆ Pound to dollar: The pound's crash will make inflation worse
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Consequently, the Bank of England will come under pressure to jack up interest rates further and faster. It has been sharply critical of the UK government’s proposals. Why a plunging pound is bad newsThe pound hit a record low against the dollar on Monday, dropping near $1.03 before recovering to almost $1.07. Investors expect the Bank of England will need to increase interest rates much more aggressively to get inflation in check. The central bank has given no indication it will hike interest rates outside its normal schedule of meetings.

☆ The pound’s crash will make inflation worse and push interest rates higher
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Consequently, the Bank of England will come under pressure to jack up interest rates further and faster. It has been sharply critical of the UK government’s proposals. Investors expect the Bank of England will need to increase interest rates much more aggressively to get inflation in check. The central bank has given no indication it will hike interest rates outside its normal schedule of meetings. “If markets still don’t have faith in the fiscal picture, I’m not sure how the Bank of England wins this,” Rossiter said.

☆ Hungarian government to submit anti-corruption bill to avoid losing EU funds
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( Krisztina Than | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban waves at the audience during general session at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Dallas, Texas, U.S., August 4, 2022. Nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, in power since 2010, has clashed with Brussels repeatedly over his policies that it sees as eroding democracy in the Central European country. He said Budapest would likely secure the pending deal but that would not resolve all the outstanding disagreements over other chunks of EU funds. Like most EU countries, Hungary last year submitted its blueprint on how it would use EU grants to make its economy more environmentally friendly and high-tech after the COVID-19 pandemic. It has yet to receive approval on that as well because of EU concerns over corruption, and the rule of law.

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