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Read previewMorgan Stanley has some disappointing news for investors: your taxes are probably going up in the next few years. But one strategist at Morgan Stanley says it's not that simple. Despite these differences, Morgan Stanley expects tax rates to increase no matter who takes office. And a divided Congress, which Morgan Stanley predicts is very likely in November, will only further reduce the likelihood of dramatic change. Typically, the stock market is more influenced by the business cycle than tax policy or political party, according to Morgan Stanley.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, Trump, Kamala Harris, it's, Monica Guerra, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's, Harris, Biden, There's, haven't, Guerra isn't, Guerra Organizations: Service, Business, Morgan Stanley Wealth, US, Trump, Republican, Democratic, Treasurys, New, Equity Locations: New York City
Read previewFor Wall Street, policy — not politics — is the motto leading up to November. Death and taxesUnsurprisingly, tax policy is at the top of money managers' minds, according to Frank Kelly, senior political strategist at DWS. The filibusterThere's an under-the-radar issue keeping portfolio managers up at night: the elimination of the filibuster, according to Kelly's conversations with clients. Wall Street analysts expect a very close election, and even a minute change could be enough to push the needle on the outcome for either candidate. Given how important gridlock is to the market, there's not enough conversation around the impacts of eliminating the filibuster, Kelly believes.
Persons: , Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, DWS, Frank Kelly, Harris, Trump, David Bianco, Bianco, Goldman Sachs, Chuck Schumer, Kelly, Monica Guerra, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's, it's, Jack Ablin, Washington doesn't Organizations: Service, Asset Management, Business, Trump, Jobs, DWS, Wall Street, Morgan Stanley Wealth, Cresset Capital Management, White, Washington, Democrats, Republicans Locations: DWS Americas
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management buys the dip in Nvidia
  + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Nvidia is poised for even bigger gains from current prices, according to Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management currently has an overweight rating on Nvidia. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's $1,000 price target implies that the stock could rise another 21%. Nvidia shares sell for a "valuation in line with historical trough multiples," and its growth potential justifies a higher valuation, Morgan Stanley said. Additionally, a growing AI tailwind could provide even more ammunition for Nvidia stock to balloon.
Persons: Morgan, Morgan Stanley, NVDA, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Morgan, Morgan Stanley Wealth
Morgan Stanley has officially kicked off the generative AI era on Wall Street. "Financial advisors will always be the center of Morgan Stanley wealth management's universe," Morgan Stanley co-President Andy Saperstein said in the memo. Competitors including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have announced projects based on generative AI technology. But Morgan Stanley is the first major Wall Street firm to put a bespoke solution based on GPT-4 in employees' hands, according to Jeff McMillan, head of analytics, data and innovation at Morgan Stanley wealth management. Called the AI @ Morgan Stanley Assistant, the tool gives financial advisors speedy access to the bank's "intellectual capital," a database of about 100,000 research reports and documents, McMillan said in a recent interview.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Andy Saperstein, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Jeff McMillan, McMillan Organizations: CNBC, JPMorgan, Morgan
It might be time to pile into US Treasurys, according to Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Bond yields have jumped in recent weeks, while the equity-market rally may be losing steam. "Investors should consider hedges for their high-priced stocks," CIO Lisa Shalett said. Lisa Shalett said in a note to clients Monday that spiking yields had made bonds much more attractive in recent weeks, signaling that fixed-income assets could be a suitable hedge if this year's breathless stock-market rally starts to lose steam. When Treasury yields rise, they become more attractive to investors relative to stocks because they offer similar returns at a lower risk level.
Persons: Morgan, Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley, Shalett Organizations: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Service, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's, Federal Reserve, Treasury Locations: Wall, Silicon
Morgan Stanley's Jim Lacamp: We are steam rolling to recession
  + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley's Jim Lacamp: We are steam rolling to recessionMorgan Stanley Wealth Management's Jim Lacamp joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss market expectations for Fed policy, resilient portfolio strategies, and more.
Office buildings should be torn down as demand isn't going to bounce back, Kyle Bass said. Converting office space to apartments isn't practical either, he told Bloomberg. And despite the shortage in housing inventory, it's not practical to keep most buildings and convert office space to apartments, he added. You wouldn't want to live there," he told Bloomberg, citing the lack of light as an example. Others on Wall Street are also bearish on commercial real estate.
From stocks to commercial real estate, several parts of financial markets are on shaky ground. Here are the 10 wildest predictions about asset prices and the economy over the past quarter. Grantham said the prices of stocks, bonds, real estate, fine art, and other investments surged to unsustainable highs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Crypto: an 'apocalypse' is coming for digital assets"Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini isn't hopeful about the crypto industry. "I think it will spread into commercial real estate as banks become more reluctant to lend," Cooperman said.
From the central bank's latest rate hike to new developments in the ongoing bank crisis, a lot has happened in my absence. And all the while, Jerome Powell's favorite bond-market indicator is quietly telling us that a recession is all but guaranteed this year. Talk of basis points, yield spreads, and other market jargon is obscuring the key message here: Markets think a recession is guaranteed in 2023. How much credence as a recession signal do you give the bond market indicator? He said the current bank crisis isn't a redux of that era, or even of 2008.
With returns bound to be muted, Shalett likes investments outside of US stocks. "Market psychology has been shaken, setting off a dynamic that likely raises the odds of an imminent recession. Morgan Stanley Wealth ManagementShalett doesn't expect the size of decline her Morgan Stanley colleague Mike Wilson sees. However, with spreads widening and long-term rates reflecting a more reasonable terminal value, bonds are a decent relative portfolio hedge," Shalett said. And finally, active money managers like hedge funds should outperform in an environment where index returns are muted, Shalett said.
US stocks look as overvalued as when the 2022 bear market kicked off, Morgan Stanley warned. "The stock market and the credit market are fighting the Federal Reserve's likely path of rising interest rates. But the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management team said that rally has dragged valuations — an assessment of a stock's fundamental worth — to extreme levels. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's gloomy outlook echoes the bearish view held by the bank's top strategist. Read more: The bear market rally isn't over yet as stocks just survived a crucial test, Morgan Stanley CIO says
The year-to-date rally can't last, according to Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. He added: "This is a perfect analogy for where equity investors find themselves today, and quite frankly, where they've been many times over the past decade." Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist David Kostin has said he is also skeptical of the market's gains so far in 2023. Meanwhile, JPMorgan's top stock strategist Marko Kolanovic, a long-time equities bull, says investors should ditch stocks because a recession is coming.
Doll says the S&P 500 will drop to 3,400 if a mild recession unfolds. If a more normal recession (more severe than a mild downturn) comes, Doll said the index could fall to 3,000. The Fed's recession probability tracker based on the yield curve also now puts the odds of a recession at 57%. Subramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall as low as 3,000, a view shared by Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. If trouble hits, like Doll and much of Wall Street expects, stocks could extend their fall to new lows.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStock market facing 'major regime shift,' says Morgan Stanley's Andrew SlimmonMorgan Stanley Wealth Management's Andrew Slimmon and UBS Private Wealth Management's Alli McCartney, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss expectations for the FOMC meeting, locating overweight stocks in energy and tech markets, and a recap on Q3 earnings thus far.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Morgan Stanley's Andrew Slimmon and UBS's Alli McCartneyMorgan Stanley Wealth Management's Andrew Slimmon and UBS Private Wealth Management's Alli McCartney, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss expectations for the FOMC meeting, locating overweight stocks in energy and tech markets, and a recap on Q3 earnings thus far.
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