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For much of this year central banks have successfully pushed back against rate cut bets. "I believe the Fed will act rationally and begin to cut rates by the end of next year, but we can't rule out the scenario that the Fed is not going to cut rates and just let the ramifications of recession do what they do." Reuters GraphicsSHIFT NEARINGMarkets now fully price in a 25 basis point U.S. rate cut in May, having seen a 65% chance earlier this week. "There are now committee members in all three (banks) willing to talk about rate cuts next year," said Chris Jeffery, head of rates and inflation strategy at LGIM. "The ECB should begin to ease policy as soon as April 2024, with risks that a more sinister downturn in growth could warrant a rate cut as soon as March," he said.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, ramping, It's, Nate Thooft, Goldman, Christopher Waller, Huw Pill, Yannis Stournaras, Chris Jeffery, we'd, Dario Perkins, Simon Harvey, Yoruk, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Roberston, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebasvili, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Catherine Evans Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Manulife Investment Management, Treasury, Graphics, Bank of England, Deutsche, Lombard, Traders, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: Washington, United States, Europe, Goldman Sachs, Greek, Amsterdam, London

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO/LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar hit a three-month low against a basket of peers on Tuesday before steadying, as traders continued to unwind long dollar positions before this week's U.S. and euro zone inflation data. The dollar index , a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, was last at 103.17, a whisker above the 103.07 it touched in Asia trade, the lowest since Aug. 31. The index is on track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance in a year. The Japanese yen was a touch firmer at 148.45 per dollar , continuing its recovery from the brink of 152 per dollar earlier in the month as the dollar weakened. The Swiss franc was at 0.8810 per dollar, steady on the day, also around its firmest since the start of September, and the Australian dollar briefly touched a near four-month high of $0.6632.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Simon Harvey, Brigid Riley, Alun John, Ed Osmond, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, greenback . U.S, Fed, Reuters, Swiss, Australian, Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: LONDON, steadying, U.S, Asia, OPEC, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Investors cautioned that tax breaks would not be sufficient to raise business investment while UK interest rates stayed high. But Wednesday, equity markets focused on Hunt's business boosts, such as a move to make full expensing on investment permanent. UK stock markets have underperformed their European and U.S. peers in 2023. The FTSE 100 index 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is around 10.7, about half that of U.S. stocks, with Hunt's budget unlikely to move the dial too far. Reuters GraphicsSTERLING SOGGYThe pound struggled to gain any traction on the back of Hunt's budget.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kwasi Kwarteng, Leigh Himsworth, Simon Harvey, Philip Shaw, Thomas McGarrity, Fuller, Smith, Turner, Oli Creasey, It's, BoE, GILTS, Craig Erlam, Goldman Sachs, Naomi Rovnick, Samuel Indyk, Lucy Raitano, Amanda Cooper, Harry Robertson, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Wednesday, Traders, Investors, Fidelity International, Reuters Graphics, Bank of England, BT, Investec, RBC Wealth Management, Reuters, BREWERS, Debt Management, Reuters Graphics STERLING, Thomson Locations: U.S, Cheviot, gilts, London

OTTAWA, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate eased more than expected to 3.1% in October and core inflation measures edged down to their lowest levels in about two years, data showed on Tuesday, likely closing the door to further rate hikes. The Bank of Canada (BoC) targets 2% annual inflation. "If the door wasn't already shut to additional rate hikes, it now should be." The bank projects inflation to hover around 3.5% until mid-2024, before trickling down to its 2% target in late 2025. Dragging the annual inflation rate in October was a 7.8% drop in gasoline prices, which benefited from comparison with a price surge in October 2022.

Persons: Royce Mendes, Simon Harvey, Chrystia Freeland, Justin Trudeau's, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Fergal Smith, Divya Rajagopal, Chizu Organizations: OTTAWA, Reuters, Statistics, Bank of Canada, BoC, CPI, Desjardins Group, Canadian, Justin Trudeau's Liberal, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, Europe, Canada, Ottawa, Toronto

☆ Crack in US dollar strength to spread as economy slows: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Suggesting the current dollar weakening trend has further to go, a near two-thirds majority of analysts, 28 of 45, who answered a separate question said the dollar is likely to trade lower than current levels against major currencies by year-end. The euro zone economy shrank 0.1% last quarter and is expected to flat-line in this one, barely skirting a recession. The Japanese yen, the worst-performing major currency for the year, is expected to remain under pressure in the near-term. The yen is expected to gain over 10% to change hands at 136/dollar in a year, the poll showed. Emerging market currencies are expected to take well into next year to post noticeable gains against a retreating U.S. dollar.

Persons: Florence Lo, we’ve, ”, Lee Hardman, “ It’s, we’re, Simon Harvey, Sterling Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, MUFG, Futures Trading, U.S, “ Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Europe

Moves were relatively muted as traders waited for more Fed officials to speak later in the day, as well as minutes from the last Fed meeting to be released on Wednesday and U.S. inflation data on Thursday. The euro was last up 0.12% against the dollar at $1.0581. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six peers, was last up less than 0.1% at 106.05. The Swiss franc , a traditional safe-haven currency, was last flat, with the dollar trading at 0.9068 francs. Fed officials Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari and Mary Daly are due to speak later on Tuesday.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Simon Harvey, Israel's shekel, They're, Chris Turner, Israel, Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly, Harry Robertson, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Simon Cameron, Moore, Susan Fenton, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Hamas, Bloomberg, Columbus, Treasury, Kyodo, Bank of Japan, . Treasury, ING, Swiss, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, China, Israel, Palestinian, Gaza, London, Singapore

☆ Sterling hits fresh multi-month lows on dollar and euro
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Pound Sterling notes and change are seen inside a cash resgister in a coffee shop in Manchester, Britain, Septem,ber 21, 2018. Sterling, on Monday, dropped as much as 0.25% to $1.2213 its lowest since March 2023, though later steadied to trade flat on the day at $1.2242. The euro on Monday briefly touched 87.03 pence, its highest since May, and was last flat a touch below that level. "What we’re seeing today is the Chinese real estate worries bleeding into the European session, weighing on equity markets and then on the euro and sterling," said Nick Rees, FX market analyst at Monex Europe. "That builds on what happened last week with the Bank of England," said Rees, "Markets are now thinking about what the Bank is seeing in the economy."

Persons: Pound Sterling, ber, Phil Noble, BOE, Liz, Nick Rees, Rees, Alun John, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, FX, Monex, Global, China, HK, Thomson Locations: Manchester, Britain

☆ Yen falls to fresh 11-month low against dollar, focus on intervention risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the yen to an almost 11-month high on Monday following last week's gains, keeping traders focused on Japan intervention risks. The Japanese currency remained within striking distance of 150, a level which some market watchers saw as a line in the sand that would spur forex intervention from Japanese authorities similar to that of last year. A yen overshooting would be seen by many as a catalyst for renewed interventions to strengthen the Japanese currency, similarly to last year, she added. EURO FACES GROWTH FEARSThe euro edged 0.1% lower to $1.0633, moving towards a six-month low of $1.0615 touched on Friday against a stronger dollar.

Persons: Florence Lo, Kazuo Ueda, Esther Reichelt, Nick Rees, we've, Reichelt, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Sterling, Joice Alves, Alun John, Ed Osmond, Bernadette Baum Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Commerzbank, Federal Reserve, FX, Monex, SBB, European Central Bank, Bank, Thomson Locations: Japan, Swedish, Monex Europe, London

☆ Dollar holds steady, yuan rises on better-than-expected China data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Brigid Riley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar index last stood somewhat lower at 105.32, but still near Thursday's six-month peak of 105.43. The yuan and Australian and New Zealand dollars received a boost after a batch of economic data from China in the Asian morning came in better-than-expected for some key indicators, providing a rare lift in sentiment. The offshore yuan inched up against the dollar to 7.2918 following the release. The Australian dollar , a proxy for China growth, rose nearly 0.3% to $0.6443, while the New Zealand dollar was up 0.2% at $0.5912. The yen stuck near 147.41 per dollar in the Asian morning.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Rodrigo Catril, Sterling, Simon Harvey, Brigid Riley, Indradip Ghosh, Lincoln, Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Central, U.S, greenback, New Zealand, People's Bank of China's, National Bank of Australia, Australian, Mizuho Bank, Thomson Locations: Asia, China, Thursday's, Europe

☆ Dollar set for fourth week of gains, inflation cements rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. The pound was last up 0.3% at $1.2711, but was still heading for a fourth weekly drop. Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer inflation rose 0.2% last month, matching the gain in June, and by 3.2% in the 12 months through July. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, fell 0.1% to 102.50, but was still set for a fourth weekly gain, thanks in part to a rise in Treasury yields. The dollar fell against the euro , which rose 0.1% to $1.0995 and against the Australian dollar , which rose 0.14% to $0652.

Persons: Florence Lo, Moh Siong Sim, Nick Rees, Mary Daly, Ankur Banerjee, Shri Navaratnam, Simon Cameron, Moore, David Evans Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Federal, Bank of Japan, Singapore, Ministry of Finance, Reuters, CPI, FX, Monex, San Francisco Fed, Thomson Locations: Japan, Monex Europe, U.S, Singapore

The European common currency fell 0.4% to $1.1083 , skidding after a quiet Asian session on PMI data that showed euro zone business activity shrank much more than expected in July. The pound dropped after British activity data, but less dramatically and was last down 0.1% at $1.2839. The yen strengthened with the dollar down 0.47% at 141.2 yen , and the euro down 0.7% at 156.6 yen. The Swiss franc was steady at 0.8648 per dollar, and the dollar index was up 0.1% at 101.2. Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by David Holmes and Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Simon Harvey, Bob Savage, Tom Westbrook, David Holmes, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: SYDNEY, PMI, Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Investors, ECB, Fed, U.S, BNY Mellon, The Bank of Japan, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Swiss, Thomson Locations: LONDON, Europe, United States, Ukraine

☆ US dollar stumbles, drops to more than one-year low as inflation eases in June
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] U.S. one hundred dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration taken in Seoul February 7, 2011. The greenback also hit its lowest against the Swiss franc since early 2015 after the inflation report. Data showed core U.S. consumer prices rose just 0.2% in June, compared with forecasts for a gain of 0.3%. The monthly rise in core prices was the smallest since August 2021. Against the yen, the dollar dropped to a six-week low of 138.17 yen .

Persons: Lee Jae, Simon Harvey, Jordan Rochester, Sterling, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Ann Saphir, Chris Reese, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, Nomura, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Seoul, Swiss, U.S, London, Norwegian, Swedish, United States

☆ US dollar plunges to more than one-year low as inflation eases in June
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] U.S. one hundred dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration taken in Seoul February 7, 2011. The greenback also hit its lowest against the Swiss franc since early 2015 after the inflation report. "The Fed may have talked itself into a corner with a July 26th rate hike. Against the yen, the dollar dropped to a six-week low of 138.17 yen . The pound is being driven by expectations for the Bank of England to deliver more rate rises to tame UK inflation, which is the highest of any major economy.

Persons: Lee Jae, Simon Harvey, Brian Jacobsen, Sterling, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Chuck Mikolajczak, Ann Saphir, Chris Reese Organizations: REUTERS, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, Core, CPI, Annex Wealth Management, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Seoul, Swiss, Core U.S, U.S, London, Norwegian, Swedish, Menomonee Falls , Wisconsin, New York, San Francisco

That threw a new curveball at UK markets, as just last week economists polled by Reuters had unanimously expected the BoE to raise by 25 basis points. I would not be surprised if we see a 50-bp rate rise from the Bank of England tomorrow." Other analysts said delivering a larger rate rise on Thursday risked further undermining the BoE's messaging. Bets on where BoE rate hikes might peak rose as high as 6% on Wednesday. The rise in yields hit UK housebuilders (.FTNMX402020), which were down as much as 3.1%.

Persons: BoE, Melanie Baker, Liz, Nick Rees, Richard McGuire, Rabobank's McGuire, Yoruk Bahceli, William Schomberg, Dhara Ranasinghe, Danilo Masoni, Alun John, Peter Graff Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Royal London Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wednesday's, MPC, FX, Monex, Rabobank, Sterling, Thomson Locations: Monex Europe

LONDON, June 16 (Reuters) - The pound was set for its biggest weekly rise in six months on Friday after days of economic data and central bank rate decisions, and ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy meeting next week. It was up 1.72% since Monday, the biggest weekly increase since early December. "Tuesday's labour market data led Bank rate expectations to spend much of that evening flirting with a terminal (peak) rate closer to 6%," said Nicholas Rees, FX market analyst at Monex Europe. Reuters GraphicsHe said U.S. economic data released on Thursday, which showed weekly jobless claims were higher than expected last week, also helped boost sterling by weighing on the dollar. Sterling rose to its highest level against the yen in eight years following the BoJ's announcement, at 180.83 yen to the pound.

Persons: Nicholas Rees, Rees, Sterling, BoE, they're, Ben Laidler, Farouq Suleiman, Harry Robertson, Angus MacSwan Organizations: Bank, Analysts, Bank of England, FX, Monex, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, ECB, U.S . Federal, Nationwide Building Society, Thomson Locations: Monex Europe, lockstep, Britain

☆ Euro steadies after Lagarde promises rate hike as inflation still too high
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - The euro held its ground on Thursday, above a two-month low, after European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said inflation remains too high and further policy tightening was necessary. But the current level is still more than three times the ECB's 2% inflation target. "Today, inflation is too high and it is set to remain so for too long," Lagarde said in a speech. Money markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 bps hike when the ECB meets on June 15. Another 25 bps hike is expected in July, according to Refinitiv.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Simon Harvey, Luis de Guindos, Carol Kong, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Simon Cameron, Moore, Sharon Singleton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Reserve, U.S . House, Fed, U.S, Democratic, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Europe, London, Singapore

☆ Dollar gains on resilient U.S. economy, flight to safety
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"If you consider global data of late, it's painting a more resilient picture of the U.S. economy than what's going on in Europe," he said. The dollar index , which tracks the U.S. currency against six major peers, hit 103.91, its highest since March 20. "The U.S. dollar has been rallying more or less for three weeks helped by stronger-than-expected data and rising U.S. interest rates," he said. The Swedish currency hit 11.541 crowns per euro, its weakest against the common currency since March 2009. The dollar strengthened 0.82% against the crown , while the New Zealand dollar slid 2.29% against the U.S. currency to 0.61050.

Persons: Joe Manimbo, Manimbo, Marc Chandler, Chandler, We're, Simon Harvey Organizations: Reserve, Bannockburn Global, U.S, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, European Central Bank, New, New Zealand, Bank, England, Bank of England Locations: Washington, U.S, Europe, Bannockburn, New York

☆ Shares rise, dollar weakens on bank sector fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 5 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose, the dollar eased and gold hovered around its record highs on Friday, as jittery investors remained nervous about the U.S. banking sector following another rout in shares of regional lenders. Wall Street ended lower on Thursday after Los Angeles-based PacWest Bancorp's (PACW.O) move to explore strategic options deepened fears about the health of U.S. lenders as pressure grows on regulators to take more steps to shore up the country's banking sector. Shares of U.S. regional banks sank this week in the wake of the collapse of First Republic Bank over the weekend that has brought back fears of a financial sector crisis. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but hinted that its marathon hiking cycle may be ending. China shares (.SSEC) rose 0.21%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) was up 0.6%, helping lift the region's shares.

☆ Moribund euro zone, Amazon outlook dent stocks ahead of rate meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Oil was firmer but still heading for another monthly decline after disappointing U.S. economic data and uncertainty over interest rates. The yen fell to a nine-year low against the euro after the Bank of Japan left its ultra-easy monetary policy unchanged. The euro zone grew only marginally in the first three months of 2023, and at a rate lower than market expectations, sending the euro lower. "Futures are saying interest rates will be lower than Fed Funds by year end, indicating a decline. Markets are pricing in an 85% chance of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

A flood of inflation data releases were also mixed. The International Monetary Fund called on the ECB on Friday to keep raising interest rates until the middle of 2024 to help bring down high inflation. Versus the yen , the euro briefly rose to its highest level since December 2014 at 149.50. It was last up 1.2% at 149.35 yen after the BOJ left its ultra-easy monetary policy unchanged even as it scrapped a pledge to keep interest rates low. However, the central bank removed a pledge to keep interest rates at "current or lower levels" and said it would "conduct a broad-perspective review of monetary policy".

☆ Dollar dips ahead of inflation data due Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Tuesday as investors waited on inflation data for further signs of whether price pressures are ebbing and what it means for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Consumer price data on Wednesday is expected to show headline inflation rose by 0.2% in March, while core inflation rose 0.4%. (USCPI=ECI), (USCPF=ECI)"A lot of traders are focused on this inflation data," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. Strong jobs data for March have added to expectations that the U.S. central bank will complete one more rate hike. European bond yields rose sharply on Tuesday, catching up after the break.

The euro was up 0.52% at $1.0918 and the pound rose a similar amount to $1.2439 as most European markets returned from the long Easter weekend. "Bank earnings will also be important, they don't often reach across to FX markets directly, but they might, given the recent jitters," Foley added. Tuesday's moves were also affected by European markets' reopening after the break, said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe, given the limited liquidity on Friday and Monday with most European markets closed. He said algorithms trading currencies based on the difference between European and U.S. rates might have sold euros for dollars when U.S. Treasury yields rose after the jobs data while European bond markets were closed. European bond yields rose sharply on Tuesday, catching up after the break.

The euro was up 0.4% at $1.0903 and the pound was up 0.5% at $1.2439 as most European markets returned from the long Easter weekend. "Bank earnings will also be important, they don't often reach across to FX markets directly, but they might given the recent jitters," Foley added. Tuesday's moves were also affected by European markets' reopening after the break, said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe, given the limited liquidity on Friday and Monday with most European markets closed. He said algorithms trading currencies based on the difference between European and U.S. rates might have sold euros for dollars when U.S. Treasury yields rose after the jobs data while European bond markets were closed. European bond yields rose sharply on Tuesday catching up after the break.

EURNOK and inflationGoldman Sachs and UBS said that the rising cost of borrowing would likely support the Norwegian crown. But those daily sales are well down from the 4.3 billion crowns per day the central bank sold in October. "Any budget surplus that was generated from the commodity exports was basically being neutralized by the Norges bank," said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex. Much of the crown's fate could also depend on what the U.S. central bank does. If the Fed stops hiking rates, this would likely boost global equities, which have a strong positive correlation to the Norwegian crown.

☆ Swedish crown gains on c.bank forecast for more hikes, softer dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Swedish crown rallied on Thursday after the country's central bank raised interest rates and forecast further tightening, while the dollar weakened against most other currencies alongside positive sentiment across markets. The dollar was last down 1.4% against the crown at 10.45 crowns and the euro was down 1.16% at 11.21, after the Riksbank raised its interest rate by 50 basis points to 3%, and forecast more increases in the spring. The Swedish currency has been under pressure, having hit its weakest since 2009 against the euro earlier this week as markets bet the central bank will raise rates less aggressively than the European Central Bank due to domestic economic conditions. Markets are also digesting a series of remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers about the U.S. interest rate plans after Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs data and ahead of next week's closely watched inflation numbers. Williams's comments followed Chair Jerome Powell's sticking by his interest rate outlook on Tuesday, when he reiterated that a process of "disinflation" was under way.

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